Paul Kelly's Week 3 Props

Player Props Record: 13-7 (65%)

Week 2 was a rough week for fantasy but we still managed to come out of it with a 5-4 record thanks to the Jamaal Williams receptions prop I gave out last Monday.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 3 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Najee Harris vs. CIN

A discrepancy of 25.5 rushing yards is very significant so I’ll hop on this one with confidence. Harris has gained just 45 and 38 rushing yards in his first two games and the Bengals are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. The Steelers offensive line has been a problem as expected and so has Big Ben’s inability to push the ball down the field to loosen up defenses.

Derrick Henry vs. IND

Henry has run for 100+ in each of his last three games against the Colts averaging 143 yards per game in that span. The Titans are favored to win and that typically means a 100-yard day for King Henry.

Nick Chubb vs. CHI

Chubb has easily topped this number in each of his first two games and in 8 of his last 10 going back to last season. The Browns are currently 7.5-point home favorites which leads me to believe he’ll get enough work to cruise past 72 rushing yards even though the Bears have been stingy against the run.

James Conner @ JAX

We got burned on this one last week but I’m going right back to it in Week 3. We lost Conner’s over the carries prop by 1 carry in a game that saw the Cardinals trailing (somewhat unexpectedly) for a significant portion of it. This week the Cardinals should have no problems handling the lowly Jaguars and Conner should be in a strong position to hit double-digit carries.

Darnell Mooney @ CLE

30-yard receiving discrepancies don’t come around all that often so I’m hitting this one. Justin Fields takes over at QB for the Bears this week and while there will surely be bumps in the road, we don’t need much to win this prop. One intermediate throw and a couple of short ones gets us to the over…or one long one. Mooney’s got the speed to be a problem for the Browns secondary. I’d consider taking over 3.5 catches too.

Tyler Lockett @ MIN

Lockett has been on fire through the first two weeks and he’s now topped 90+ yards in three straight going back to last year. We expect to see a lot of CB Patrick Peterson on D.K. Metcalf this week which could mean even more targets for Lockett.

Marquise Brown @ DET

Hollywood has cruised past this number in each of the first two games and the Lions defense has had trouble (to put it mildly) with opposing #1 WRs so far this season. Brown has been terrific since late last season and we have an actionable discrepancy here to feel good about too.

T.J. Hockenson vs. BAL

Hockenson has proven to be the go-to guy in the Lions passing game this season with 8 grabs in each of his first two games. He only needs to get to 6 catches in this one to be a winner and the Ravens gave up 10 catches to Darren Waller and 7 catches to Travis Kelce in their first two games respectively.

Tony Pollard vs. PHI

Much to the chagrin of those rostering Ezekiel Elliot, Tony Pollard has become a featured part of the Cowboys offense. He racked up 140 yards last week against the Chargers and the Eagles employ a similar defensive scheme. Backs are catching 8 balls per game against them and Pollard is averaging 30 yards per game receiving alone. All he has to do is get close to that number and run for 20 yards and this bet is a winner.

Here’s the full list of the “significant” discrepancies I found for Week 3. Note that there were no passing props that met the criteria to be included this week. Props and odds can change fairly quickly, especially on a Sunday morning, so it’s important to check the various books for the best numbers/odds before placing your bet. Happy wagering!