John Hansen's 2021 Player Props

I was afraid to go back and look at this article from last year, when I listed my favorite 30 or so season-long props for certain players. I knew I got hosed by injuries, since I took all but one over, so that’s the first lesson learned: I need to be more judicious with these overs and I need to take more unders.

Here are the picks that I lost due to injuries:

• Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 3700.5 passing yards

• Joe Burrow OVER 3700.5 passing yards

• Dak Prescott OVER 4275.5 passing yards

• Dak Prescott OVER 27.5 TD passes

• Ezekiel Elliott OVER 9.5 rushing TDs

And here are some really crappy calls, and the lesson here is don’t mess with low-end players, and OBJ. OBJ did get hurt and might have heated up and hit this number, but I’ll chalk it up to a bad call:

• Odell Beckham OVER 1050 receiving yards

• Mark Ingram OVER 750.5 rushing yards

• Breshad Perriman OVER 700.5 receiving yards

• Chris Herndon OVER 575.5 receiving yards

Here are some decent calls that lost:

• Baker Mayfield OVER 3750.5 passing yards — Missed it by 187 yards, should have won that one.

• Jared Goff OVER 23.5 TD passes — I was feeling this one last summer, but Goff continued to regress and now is a Lion, and deservedly so. He missed this by 4 TDs.

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 850.5 rushing yards — Missed by 47.5 yards, so that was a tough one since he missed three games.

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 1250 rush+rec yards — Again, kinda hosed and missed it by 150 total yards, so his missed three games hurt a lot.

• Marquise Brown OVER 800.5 receiving yards — Missed it by 31 yards, totally hosed here, and I blame Lamar Jackson, who missed Hollywood on 4-5 big plays at least with bad throws.

• DJ Chark OVER 975 receiving yards — He did miss 3.5 games, which obviously hurt, but not a great call and missed it by 269 yards.

Welp, I’ve already gotten 15 wrong, which is bad. So my biggest takeaway is I need to RANK these props and focus on my top-10 or top-15, which are the ones people should bet on if they listen to me. Had I done that last year, the top-10 or top-15 would have been good, I think, as I was feeling majorly these 2020 wins last summer:

1. Ryan Tannehill OVER 3450 passing yards
2. Josh Allen OVER 3300.5 passing yards
3. Russell Wilson OVER 3900.5 passing yards
4. Ben Roethlisberger OVER 25.5 TD passes
5. Patrick Mahomes OVER 34.5 TD passes
6. Ryan Tannehill OVER 22.5 TD passes
7. Baker Mayfield OVER 24.5 TD passes
8. Jonathan Taylor OVER 700.5 yards — I called this one the “GOAT” of 2021 props in the article.
9. Derrick Henry OVER 1325.5 rushing yards
10. Alvin Kamara OVER 850 rushing yards
11. Chris Carson UNDER 1050 rushing yards
12. Derrick Henry OVER 11.5 rushing TDs
13. DK Metcalf OVER 850 receiving yards
14. Diontae Johnson OVER 775.5 receiving yards -
15. Darius Slayton OVER 725.5 receiving yards -
16. Adam Thielen OVER 6.5 TDs
17. Davante Adams OVER 7.5 TDs
18. Kareem Hunt OVER 850.5 yards

Overall record: 18-15

Not a great record, but I got truly lucky on only one winning prop, with Darius Slayton barely hitting his over. The others went mostly well over the prop, and out of 33 total props, only 4-5 of the picks were truly bad, so 86.5% of the picks were on the right track. There were eleven props that either just missed or got wrecked by injury, so the record could have easily been something like 23-10.

I think I can help people more by ranking this year’s picks in order of my confidence. I do not have the time to write up a full analysis of each pick, but that’s all obviously elsewhere on the site, especially my Draft Plan and Good Vibes/Bad Vibes.

To keep it simple, I just stuck to DraftKings.

Here you go:

1. Darnell Mooney OVER 700.5 receiving yards: -115 on DK
2. Antonio Gibson OVER 1025 rushing yards: -115 on DK
3. Darnell Mooney OVER 4 receiving TDs: -130 on DK
4. Josh Allen OVER 34.5 TD passes -115 onDK
5. Deebo Samuel OVER 4.5 receiving TDs: -140 on DK
6. Matt Ryan UNDER 29.5 passing TD: -130 on DK
7. Javonte Williams OVER 800.5 rushing yards: -120 on DK
8. Julio Jones UNDER 77.5 receptions: -110 on DK
9. Antonio Gibson OVER 1300.5 rushing & receiving yards: -115 on DK
10. Jameis Winston UNDER 24.5 TD passes: -105 DK
11. Tom Brady OVER 36.5 TD passes: -105 on DK
12. Jerry Jeudy OVER 4.5 receiving TDs: -150 on DK
13. Antonio Gibson OVER 9.5 rushing TDs: -130 on DK
14. Ezekiel Elliott OVER 1105.5 rushing yards: -120 on DK
15. Michael Pittman OVER 4.5 receiving TDs: -110 on DK
16. A.J. Dillon OVER 690 rushing yards: -110 on DK
17. Justin Herbert UNDER 28.5 TD passes -110 on DK
18. Patrick Mahomes UNDER 39.5 TD passes: -140 on DK
19. Jameis Winston UNDER 4200.5 passing yards: -105 on DK
20. Patrick Mahomes UNDER 5050 passing yards: -115 on DK
21. Tua Tagovailoa OVER 24.5 TD passes: -115 on DK
22. Justin Herbert UNDER 4450.5 passing yards: -115 on DK
23. Davante Adams UNDER 110.5 receptions: -115 on DK
24. Brandon Aiyuk OVER 5.5 receiving TDs: -130 on DK
25. Odell Beckham UNDER 6 receiving TDs: -130 on DK
26. Terry McLaurin OVER 6 receiving TDs: -130 on DK
27. Damien Harris OVER 845.5 rushing yards: -135 on DK
28. Austin Ekeler UNDER 5.5 rushing TDs: -120 on DK
29. A.J. Brown UNDER 81.4 receptions: -115 on DK
30. Mac Jones OVER 23.5 TD passes -110 on DK
31. AJ Green OVER 3.5 receiving TDs: -115 on DK
32. Jamaal Williams OVER 750.5 rushing & receiving yards: -115 on DK