Hansen's Best Bets: Week 7


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Hansen's Best Bets: Week 7


Last Week’s ATS Record: 2-1

Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 10-6

Totals Record: 2-3


Denver Broncos (+1.5) at Cleveland Browns — I’ve gotten some wins lately by making some boring and seemingly obvious picks, so I’ll stay with that trend by making, well, a boring and seemingly obvious pick. The Broncos have some injury and tough matchup issues of their own, but they’re still better equipped to pull out a win in a potential bad weather game. This is a great opportunity to up rookie RB Javonte Williams’ snap count and touch total, and he’s a big play waiting to happen. The Broncos also have enough firepower on offense to outscore the Browns,

Player Props

Last week: 8-8

Player Props Record: 58-51

I did bounce back from a 1-4 to start on TNF last week to get to .500 by going 7-4 on Sunday. The first seven picks listed Sunday went 6-1, with the lone loss being Kadarius Toney, who almost hit the prop by 1:30 ET but then got hurt. So another reminder that I prioritize my favorites each week, and if you’re going to use any of them, take them from the top-5 or top-7.

Also, if I ever list a low-end slot receiver with a prop of only 30-40 yards or fewer, ignore me. Too many of the bad losses on the props have been matchup-based calls for slot receivers.

James Conner OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115 CAESARS) — I’d probably go up to 55-57 yards elsewhere, even though this one seems too good to be true with the Cards, who are 18-point home favorites against the Texans, who are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (122.0) to RBs.

Justin Fields OVER 18.5 rushing yards (-114 FD) — Once again, I’d be willing to go several yards over this one somewhere else, since Fields is definitely running for 20+ yards unless he gets hurt. This number is absurdly low, actually.

Calvin Ridley OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I’m completely convinced that Ridley will crush them, even if CBs Howard and Jones play.

Davante Adams OVER 95.5 receiving yards (-114 FD) — This is a high number, but I do think Adams can go for 150 in this one if things fall relatively well for him.

Robert Tonyan OVER 19.6 receiving yards (-114 CAESARS) — I’m on Tonyan this week, but there’s certainly a chance that I am, for lack of a better term, tripping. But I do like this one.

Devonta Freeman OVER 38.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)Latavius Murray is out, and while Freeman is no lock to do anything, I have him with over 50 rushing yards.

Tee Higgins OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I’m on Higgins this week.


Javonte Williams (Den) over 46.5 rushing yards (-120 DK) — I had this guy as my top prop this past Sunday, and while it was very close, he did hit it with a number that would be a winner this week as well (53 yards). I think it’s fair for the number to be a little higher this week, given the circumstances (the prop I had here last week was 42.5). I’d have to think a few more carries will be coming for Williams tonight, and he’s already ripped off several runs of 10 yards or more, including a 30-yarder last week and a 49-yarder the week before. My projection Williams is 64, a difference of 17.5 yards. That’s enough to go with it.

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer John Hansen has been an industry leader and pioneer since 1995, when he launched Fantasy Guru. His content has been found over the years on ESPN.com, NFL.com, SiriusXM, DirecTV, Yahoo!, among others outlets. In 2015 he sold Fantasy Guru and in 2020 founded FantasyPoints.com.