Last Week’s ATS Record: 0-1
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 10-9
Totals Record: 3-3
New England Patriots (-6.5 on DK) at Atlanta Falcons — I lost a seemingly obvious play last Thursday night with the Ravens, and while this one does seem too good to be true, I’d be absolutely stunned if the Pats don’t win this one by at least a touchdown. The Pats can likely contain or even shut down TE Kyle Pitts, and Matt Ryan’s OL is just not good. Also not good is his remaining receiving corps, one that should be held in check outside of the garbage time production. The Falcons defense, while not brutal, is also very beatable. It’s going to take 1-2 miracles for the Falcons to cover this one.
Last week: 5-11
Player Props Record: 79-77
Absolute devastation last week on the props, and most of them were very close with an injury that caused me to lose one by a half a yard.
- Najee Harris OVER 80.5 rushing yards (-114 CAESARS) — DT Linval Joseph is doubtful, which is huge for Harris.
- Antonio Gibson OVER 13.5 carries (-113 BETMGM) — Ron Rivera revenge game, so I think it’ll be close.
- Kadarius Toney OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-114 FD) — No Sterling Shepard, so I love this one.
- Joe Mixon OVER 84.5 rushing/receiving yards (-114 FD) — I like Mixon in the passing game in this one, and he’s been great overall, so this one’s a good one.
- Cam Newton UNDER 28.5 pass attempts (-114 FD) — I don’t know if he’ll get to this number if he takes every snap, and I don’t think he’ll take every snap.
- Elijah Moore OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-113 FD) — His snaps, routes, etc. should be higher, but he did work with Joe Flacco last week. He can get this easily.
- Darnell Mooney OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-113 FD) — He will be a marked man, but he is good enough to overcome that and hit this number.
- Darnell Mooney OVER 3.5 receptions (-149 CAESARS) — Same as above.
Rhamondre Stephenson OVER 52.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115 DK) — I’m extremely impressed by Stephenson in all facets, and he’s been surprisingly good in the passing game. With RBs getting 7.5 receptions per game to RBs, Stephenson should be good for 2-3 catches at least. And with RBs getting 29+ carries per game against the Falcons and the Pats 7-point road favorites, I have to think Stephenson will get 10+ carries (Brandon Bolden is also questionable). I have him with 65 total yards, and it’s a conservative projection.
Tajae Sharpe OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I know this one is weird, but he’s their most reliable outside WR for this matchup, and I can totally see Matt Ryan finishing with surprisingly solid yardage numbers (surprisingly because he seems hopeless in this matchup). And 26 yards isn’t much to ask for, especially if Cordarrelle Patterson is ruled out.
Kyle Pitts UNDER 61.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — Seems too good to be true, so we’ll see, but I know if I go contrarian (for spite) then it definitely won’t be too good to be true and I’ll lose. So I’ll stick with logic and common sense knowing the Pats will focus on stopping Pitts.