Hansen's Best Bets: Week 1


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Hansen's Best Bets: Week 1



I’m surprised the spread higher isn’t, honestly. I like what the Chargers have done on the OL, but those guys may need time to gel, and it’s a nasty matchup otherwise. It’s not an easy matchup for the WFT’s offense, but it’s easier than the LAC’s.


I’m usually worried giving up a lot of points, but I also always notice lopsided games where the spread, while high, is a joke by game’s end. This is one of those games. The Lions will get out coached and outclassed given their superior coaching staff, system, and roster. The Lions are without their best O-lineman Taylor Decker, and rookie #1 pick and RT Penei Sewell has been bad so far. Uh, oh.


I think the Saints are in trouble in this one unless they can get a huge day on the ground out of Alvin Kamara because it’s a tough matchup for Jameis Winston and the passing game. Even if Marshon Lattimore contains Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers has enough in the passing game to make plays, and Green Bay’s running game has a big advantage in this one, especially if they can wear them down with a lead.


If the Jags can’t beat this Texans team by at least 4 points, Urban Myer should quit. Give me a break. The Jags simply have too much firepower and should cruise to a 10+ point victory.


Both defenses are really good, and at least one offense is not ready for primetime (Giants). This one feels like a 20-13 type of game, which would win this.

Thursday Night Football

The obvious matchup in this game is Tom Brady and the Bucs passing game against a suspect-until-proven-otherwise Cowboys secondary. Chris Godwin practiced on Thursday and was removed from the injury report, so Brady will have his full complement of weapons. Antonio Brown, in particular, could feast on the outside on shaky CB Anthony Brown. There are matchups galore for the Bucs to exploit, and they will do just that. The Cowboys will be hard-pressed to hang with the Bucs, but they are talented enough to at least put up some garbage points in a loss. As good as the Bucs defense is, there were times last year when they allowed offenses to rack up plenty of yards and points. Things will be tougher for their offense with OG Zack Martin likely out, but the Cowboys have a tremendous trio at wide receiver, but also a pair of viable pass-catchers at TE, plus two running backs who can catch the ball, so while it might be close, this puppy is hitting 52 total points.

Player Props

Sunday Football
  1. AJ Dillon (GB) over 27.5 rushing yards (-111, MGM) - I’d be fine with anything in the low-30s, honestly, as long as the odds were -115 or better.
  2. Elijah Moore (NYJ) over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 on DK) - If Keelan Cole is out, this is a lock. 90% if Cole is in.
  3. Jonnu Smith (NE) - over 27.5 receiving yards (-115 on MGM) - Miami has two good outside CBs, why not make it a Jonnu game? Also, every game will be a Jonnu game.
  4. Deebo Samuel (SF) over 45.5 receiving yards (-110 on MGM) - He can get half of this with his RAC on one single catch.
  5. Brandon Aiyuk (SF) - over 44.5 receiving yards (-120 on DK) - Same as Deebo, the RAC is a cheat code.
  6. Logan Thomas (WFT) over 42.5 receiving yards (-114 on FD) - No Curtis Samuel is big, and if preseason trends continue, he can get this on just 3 catches.
  7. Antonio Gibson (WFT) over 18.5 receiving yards (-115 on DK) - He may not play on third down, but OC Ron Turner is giddy about getting this guy involved in the passing game.
  8. Marquez Calloway (NO) over 3.5 receptions (-167 MGM) - The guy’s getting 8-10 targets, easy.
  9. AJ Dillon (GB) over 6.5 rushing attempts (-139, MGM) - I see him with 12+ carries, so if you want to go somewhere else and take 7, 7.5, or 8, I’m fine with it.
  10. Jalen Hurts (Phi) under 242.5 passing yards (-115 on DK) - Dean Peas is great at confusing young QBs, so he’ll run a lot.
  11. Ryan Tannehill (Ten) over 31.5 completions (-111 MGM) - Cards run a lot of plays and this one should be high-scoring.
  12. DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) over 78.5 receiving yards (-114, FD) - Like the matchup overall against his former division rival, high-scoring game. If this one loses, it;ll be because AJ Green had a shockingly good game.
  13. Chase Claypool (Pit) over 48.5 receiving yards (-120 on DK) - He will not see Tre White exclusively, and the Steelers will have to throw to keep up.
  14. Jonnu Smith (NE) over 2.5 receptions (-139 MGM) - He will get 2 by the end of the first quarter is my prediction.
  15. Baker Mayfield (Cle) over 1.5 TD passes (-120 on DK) - Bad vibe on KC, great vibe on Cle.
  16. Jakobi Meyers (NE) over 3.5 receptions (-139 MGM) - Miami has two good outside corners, but he can do a lot inside.
  17. Chase Edmunds (Ari) over 23.5 receiving yards (-130 on DK) - I really don’t see James Conner getting more than 1 target.
  18. Kareem Hunt (Cle) over 16.5 receiving yards (-111 on MGM) - Maybe Chubb stays involved in the passing game as he was last year, but this is still a low number.
Thursday Night Football

Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) over 78.5 rush + rec yards (-115, DraftKings)

  • I have Zeke with 93 total yards, and it’s a pretty conservative projection.

Michael Gallup (Dal) over 3.5 receptions (-165, DraftKings)

  • The odds aren’t good, but the bet is fantastic and seemingly a lock unless he gets hurt. Gallup may be lining up more in this slot this year, starting in the opener, which would be terrific news for this bet.

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer John Hansen has been an industry leader and pioneer since 1995, when he launched Fantasy Guru. His content has been found over the years on ESPN.com, NFL.com, SiriusXM, DirecTV, Yahoo!, among others outlets. In 2015 he sold Fantasy Guru and in 2020 founded FantasyPoints.com.