My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||9||12-1 (6-7)||—||+180|
|2.||Green Bay Packers||6||10-3 (8-5)||—||+650|
|3.||New Orleans Saints||6||10-3 (7-6)||-1||+700|
|4.||Los Angeles Rams||6||9-4 (8-5)||+.5||+1100|
|5.||Buffalo Bills||6||10-3 (8-5)||+1||+1200|
|6.||Baltimore Ravens||5.5||8-5 (7-6)||+.5||+1600|
|7.||Seattle Seahawks||5.5||9-4 (7-6)||+.5||+1400|
|8.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5||8-5 (7-6)||—||+1400|
|9.||Indianapolis Colts||4.5||9-4 (8-5)||+1||+2800|
|10.||Pittsburgh Steelers||4||11-2 (8-5)||-1.5||+1300|
|11.||Tennessee Titans||3.5||9-4 (6-7)||+.5||+2800|
|12.||Cleveland Browns||3.5||9-4 (5-8)||+.5||+4000|
|13.||Miami Dolphins||2||8-5 (10-3)||-.5||+8000|
|14.||Arizona Cardinals||1.5||7-6 (6-7)||+.5||+6000|
|16.||Minnesota Vikings||.5||6-7 (6-7)||-1||+8000|
|17.||San Francisco 49ers||0||5-8 (5-8)||-1||+15000|
|18.||Las Vegas Raiders||0||7-6 (7-6)||-1||+12500|
|19.||New England Patriots||-.5||6-7 (6-7)||-.5||+50000|
|20.||Atlanta Falcons||-.5||4-9 (5-8)||-1||Eliminated|
|21.||Carolina Panthers||-1||4-9 (7-6)||-.5||Eliminated|
|22.||Chicago Bears||-1.5||6-7 (6-7)||+2||+20000|
|23.||New York Giants||-1.5||5-8 (8-5)||-.5||+15000|
|24.||Philadelphia Eagles||-2||4-8-1 (5-8)||+1||+15000|
|25.||Denver Broncos||-2||5-8 (8-5)||+.5||+100000|
|26.||Houston Texans||-2.5||4-9 (4-9)||-1.5||Eliminated|
|27.||Los Angeles Chargers||-2.5||4-9 (6-7)||+.5||Eliminated|
|28.||Detroit Lions||-3||5-8 (6-7)||—||+50000|
|29.||Dallas Cowboys||-5||4-9 (3-10)||+1||+50000|
|30.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-5.5||1-12 (6-7)||—||Eliminated|
|31.||New York Jets||-8.5||0-13 (3-10)||-1||Eliminated|
|32.||Cincinnati Bengals||-9||2-10-1 (7-6)||-.5||Eliminated|
Week 15 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 9.
Los Angeles Rams (5.5 to 6) — The Rams look dangerous heading into the playoffs, especially if they have a potentially dynamic running game to go along with one of the league’s best defenses. Sean McVay has anointed Cam Akers as his lead back as the Rams dominated the Patriots on the ground with Akers running 171 yards on 29 carries.
Buffalo Bills (5 to 6) — The Bills are riding a five-game ATS winning streak after they failed to cover four straight games in Weeks 5-8. Stefon Diggs has been a major reason why as he has 9+ catches and 90+ receiving yards in four of his last five games in that span with Josh Allen working his way out of a mid-season rut.
Seattle Seahawks (5 to 5.5) — Seattle had failed to cover in six of their last eight games before trampling the Jets last week by 37 points. Russell Wilson threw for four TDs in just 42 minutes of action before being lifted for Geno Smith.
Baltimore Ravens (5 to 5.5) — The Ravens have reeled off three consecutive covers after a 2-6 ATS dry spell in Weeks 3-11. Lamar Jackson’s passing still leaves something to be desired, but they’ve finally concentrated their rushing attack between Lamar, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards who combined 29/226/5 rushing against the Browns.
Indianapolis Colts (3.5 to 4.5) — The Colts covered for the fourth time in their last five games after scoring a season-high 44 points against the Raiders. A major reason for their recent success is the emergence of Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton as the top playmakers in this offense. Taylor is the RB3 with 22.8 FPG over the last four weeks while Hilton has been the WR3 with 22.9 FPG over the last three weeks.
Cleveland Browns (3 to 3.5) — What an agonizing failed cover (then a failed push) for Browns’ backers last week in the final minute against the Ravens. Cleveland’s offense is starting to hit its stride with three straight overs with 36.7 points per game average in that span, but their defense has been just as shaky allowing 35.7 PPG over the last three weeks.
Tennessee Titans (3 to 3.5) — The Titans’ porous defense got a reprieve in Week 14 going against Mike Glennon and a lackluster Jaguars offense, which helped the Titans to do what they do best. Derrick Henry’s bid for a 2000-yard season is very much alive — he needs 432 rushing yards in his last three games — after posting 215/2 rushing against the Jaguars.
Arizona Cardinals (1 to 1.5) — The Cardinals snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in Week 14 as they knocked off a surging Giants squad in a 19-point victory. The Giants managed just 3.2 yards per play with Daniel Jones laboring through a hamstring injury, which led to 79 plays and only 390 yards (4.9 YPP) for the Cardinals offense.
Washington Football Team (-1 to 0) — Washington has won and covered in four straight games. The Football Team’s defense has turned into one of the best defensive units in the league, and the group provided all the offense they needed in their eight-point victory over the 49ers. The Football Team forced three turnovers, they sacked Nick Mullens four times, and they scored two defensive touchdowns while allowing just 3.1 yards per play.
Chicago Bears (-3.5 to -1.5) — I downgraded the Bears too much off of their loss to the Lions in Week 13 as they responded with a dominant victory over the Texans in Week 14 — they averaged 6.9 yards per play while holding the Texans to 4.1 YPP. The Vikings and the Bears have a pivotal matchup this week, which will keep the playoff hopes alive for the winner while all but ending the postseason hopes for the loser.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3 to -2) — The Eagles played over the total and they reached 24+ points for the first time since Week 6 after inserting Jalen Hurts into the lineup for a struggling Carson Wentz. Hurts’ presence in the lineup kick-started the Eagles’ offense, especially their running game with Hurts and Miles Sanders combining for 32/221/2 rushing. They did lose S Rodney McLeod to a torn ACL, which prevented them from getting a bigger bump in my ratings.
Denver Broncos (-2.5 to -2) — The Broncos are playing out the string this season, but they’ve shown a lot of fight in recent weeks despite their season-long injury woes. They’ve now covered in three straight games in which they’ve had an actual quarterback in the lineup, including outright victories over the Dolphins and the Panthers.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3 to -2.5) — The Chargers actually won a one-score game against the Falcons last week, but they did their best to screw it up with a pair of gaffes late in the first and second halves. Justin Herbert has hit the rookie wall as he’s averaged 6.1 YPA or worse in four of his last five games after never doing it in his first seven starts.
Dallas Cowboys (-6 to -5) — The Cowboys covered just their third spread of the season in their 30-7 victory over the hapless Bengals as three-point road underdogs. Cincinnati spotted the Cowboys 17 points with fumbles on three consecutive drives to open the game. The Cowboys scored 30 points last week but they generated just 272 total yards.
Week 15 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 9.
New Orleans Saints (7 to 6) — The Saints had their nine-game winning streak snapped in surprising fashion by the Eagles in Jalen Hurts’ first career start. New Orleans also failed to win and cover for the first time in nine games without Drew Brees over the last two seasons. I’d bump the Saints up half a point if Brees returns to the lineup this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5.5 to 4) — Steelers’ offense is completely broken heading into the final weeks of the season as they have no rushing attack and no downfield passing game to speak of. Pittsburgh has failed to reach 70 rushing yards in seven of their last eight games after averaging 136.8 rushing yards per game in their first five games. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in three straight games, and they may have reached a breaking point with defensive injuries in recent weeks.
Miami Dolphins (2.5 to 2) — The Dolphins extended their NFL-best ATS record to 10-3 by scoring 17 fourth-quarter points to get the backdoor cover against the NFL’s best team. Miami left Week 14 a little worse for wear with their top three receivers (DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Jakeem Grant) each leaving early with injuries.
Minnesota Vikings (1.5 to .5) — The Vikings have failed to cover in four straight games after kicker Dan Bailey left 10 points on the field with three missed field goals and a missed extra point. The Vikings and the Bears have a pivotal matchup this week, which will keep the playoff hopes alive for the winner while all but ending the postseason hopes for the loser.
San Francisco 49ers (1.5 to .5) — The 49ers failed to cover for the fifth time in their last six contests in their 23-15 loss to Washington as three-point home favorites. It’s been a season to forget for Deebo Samuel (and so many other injured 49ers) as he could miss the rest of the season after he injured his hamstring for the second time this season.
Las Vegas Raiders (1 to 0) — The Raiders have plummeted down my ratings after failing to cover in their last three games. Las Vegas has allowed 31+ points in four straight games and 38.3 points per game in that stretch, which resulted in the dismissal of DC Paul Guenther for the final three weeks of the season.
New England Patriots (0 to -.5) — The Patriots have been surviving with smoke and mirrors in recent weeks, but Cam Newton and their terrible offense got exposed by a good Rams defense last week. The Patriots averaged just 3.8 yards per play with Cam getting benched in the fourth quarter after throwing for just 119 yards in 50 minutes of action.
Atlanta Falcons (.5 to -.5) — The Falcons out-Chargered the Chargers in Week 14. Matt Ryan threw an interception near midfield with 30 seconds left, which set up LA’s game-winning field goal with no time left. Ryan has been miserable since their Week 10 bye. He’s averaging 6.2 YPA with a 55.1% completion percentage, four TDs, and six INTs in his last four games.
Carolina Panthers (-.5 to -1) — The Panthers’ offense played undermanned in Week 14 with D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup, but their defense let them down against the Broncos. Drew Lock posted season-highs in completion percentage (77.8%), YPA (10.4), and touchdown passes (4) as the Panthers allowed 6.3 yards per play.
New York Giants (-1 to -1.5) — The Giants managed just 3.2 yards per play last week with Daniel Jones laboring through a hamstring injury. He clearly came back at least a week too early to play against the Cardinals, but New York’s defense still played hard as they limited Arizona to 4.9 yards per play despite facing a whopping 79 plays (390 yards allowed) because of their inept offense.
Houston Texans (-1 to -2) — The Texans averaged just 4.1 yards per play in their 36-7 loss to the Bears while allowing 6.9 YPP to a Chicago offense that has been incompetent for much of the season. The Texans have failed to cover in consecutive games with just 27 points scored since losing Will Fuller for the season due to suspension. Their terrible defense also lost DT Brandon Dunn and S Justin Reid for the season so they may not slow down anyone for the rest of the season.
New York Jets (-7.5 to -8.5) — The Jets looked like they put a stamp on their season and mailed it in after Week 13’s debacle against the Raiders. New York got waxed by 37 points by the Seahawks in Week 14 after showing some fight in recent weeks. New York will play another game on the West Coast this week and they decided to fly home between games so we’ll see how much effort they have for that contest.
Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5 to -9) — The Bengals may have blown their last chance at a victory in 2020 as they stumbled out of the gates against the Cowboys in Week 14. Cincinnati spotted the Cowboys 17 points with fumbles on three consecutive drives to open the game, which was a deficit they would never overcome in their 23-point loss. Cincy has failed to cover in four of their last five games after starting the season 6-2 ATS.