Week 14 TNF Trends and Picks


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Week 14 TNF Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots (6-6, 6-6 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (8-4, 7-5), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Patriots 20, Rams 25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 5, 45.5 to 45

  • Weather: Dome

  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: CB Jonathan Jones (neck), CB J.C. Jackson (hip/knee), TE Ryan Izzo (hamstring)

  • Rams Injuries to Watch: RB Cam Akers (shoulder), DL Michael Brockers (neck)

Patriots Trends

  • New England stayed in the Los Angeles area and practiced at UCLA during their two-game LA road trip.

  • The Patriots’ offense averaged a pathetic 3.6 yards per play, but it didn’t matter in their 45-0 shutout victory over the Chargers because of their three special teams touchdowns.

  • Both New England and Los Angeles are 8-4 toward unders.

  • New England has played under the total in four straight games.

  • The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games.

  • Cam Newton hasn’t reached 100+ passing yards in consecutive games, but he found the end zone twice as a runner last week to end a two-game scoreless drought. The Rams limited Kyler Murray to 5/15 rushing last week but he did post 173/3 passing. The Rams are allowing a league-low 219.3 passing yards per game while the Patriots are averaging the third-fewest passing yards per game (191.4).

  • Jakobi Meyers is the closest thing to a relevant receiver in this passing attack right now. He’s posted 7/67 receiving on 44 routes over the last two weeks followed by Damiere Byrd (5/49, 42) and N’Keal Harry (2/15, 27). The Rams are allowing a league-low 135.4 receiving yards per game to WRs.

  • Damien Harris has scored twice and he has four catches in nine games, but he at least got back on track on the ground with 16/80 rushing (5.0 YPC) last week after he posted 25/90 rushing (3.6) in Weeks 11-12.

  • James White has just 4/0 receiving and 5/18 rushing over his last two games, but he scored twice in Week 12 to salvage some production. The Patriots project to play in a negative game script as six-point road underdogs, but the Rams just limited Chase Edmonds to 2/15 receiving last week on six targets.

Rams Trends

  • The Rams have outright victories and covers in three of their last four games after limiting Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to 3.7 yards per play last week.

  • Los Angeles is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight December contests.

  • The Rams have played under the total in five straight home games.

  • Jared Goff has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last five games, but he has just five TD passes in that span for a 2.2% TD rate. The Patriots have held Kyler Murray (170/0 passing) and Justin Herbert (209/0) each to under nine FP in their last two games. Goff has completed just 47.1% of his passes for a 5.6 YPA average in two career starts against Bill Belichick’s defenses.

  • Robert Woods has 7+ catches, 80+ yards, and 11+ targets in three straight games. He’s run 46% of his routes from the slot this season to avoid Stephon Gilmore some this week.

  • Cooper Kupp has 5+ catches in five of his last six games but he’s failed to top 50 yards in three games in that span. Keenan Allen posted 5/48 receiving on 11 targets last week with a struggling rookie QB.

  • Van Jefferson ran more routes than Josh Reynolds last week (25 to 21) for the first time this season. The rookie posted 4/27 receiving against the Cardinals after scoring his first NFL TD in Week 11. It looks like Sean McVay could be finally throwing his second-round picks Jefferson and Cam Akers into the fire in the final weeks of the season.

  • Gerald Everett (6/44 receiving) and Tyler Higbee (4/24/1) each scored double-digit FP last week, which was the first time they both reached 10+ FP in the same game this season. Hunter Henry managed just a five-yard catch on two targets in this matchup last week.

  • Cam Akers has vaulted to the top of the Rams’ rushing game pecking order ahead of Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown since Los Angeles’ Week 9 bye. Akers dominated the work (22/94/2 scrimmage) and the snaps (63% share) against the Cardinals in Week 13, which was certainly aided by Henderson leaving for a stretch of time with a knee injury. Henderson is still in the mix as he did come back to total 5/74/1 scrimmage last week while Brown played a season-low 13 snaps. The Patriots haven’t allowed an individual back to reach 100+ scrimmage yards since the 49ers ran wild on them in Week 7.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Rams -5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Cam Newton (NE) under 185.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Van Jefferson (LAR) over 13.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.