My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||9.5||10-1 (6-5)||—||+275|
|2.||Pittsburgh Steelers||7||11-0 (8-3)||-.5||+550|
|3.||New Orleans Saints||6.5||9-2 (6-5)||+.5||+550|
|4.||Seattle Seahawks||6||8-3 (6-5)||+1||+900|
|5.||Green Bay Packers||5.5||8-3 (7-4)||+.5||+1000|
|6.||Los Angeles Rams||5||7-4 (6-5)||—||+1600|
|7.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5||7-5 (6-6)||-.5||+1600|
|8.||Baltimore Ravens||4||6-5 (5-6)||—||+3000|
|9.||Buffalo Bills||4||8-3 (6-5)||+1||+2200|
|10.||Tennessee Titans||3.5||8-3 (5-6)||+1||+2200|
|11.||Indianapolis Colts||3.5||7-4 (6-5)||-1||+3000|
|12.||Miami Dolphins||2.5||7-4 (8-3)||+1||+5000|
|13.||Arizona Cardinals||2||6-5 (5-6)||-1.5||+4000|
|14.||Las Vegas Raiders||2||6-5 (7-4)||-1||+5000|
|15.||Cleveland Browns||2||8-3 (4-7)||—||+4000|
|16.||Minnesota Vikings||1.5||5-6 (6-5)||+.5||+7000|
|17.||San Francisco 49ers||1||5-6 (5-6)||+1.5||+6600|
|18.||Atlanta Falcons||.5||4-7 (5-6)||+.5||+32500|
|19.||Los Angeles Chargers||-.5||3-8 (5-6)||-.5||+100000|
|20.||Carolina Panthers||-.5||4-8 (7-5)||—||+50000|
|21.||New England Patriots||-1||5-6 (5-6)||-.5||+10000|
|22.||Houston Texans||-1.5||4-7 (4-7)||-1.5||+22500|
|23.||Philadelphia Eagles||-2||3-7-1 (4-7)||-1||+10000|
|25.||Chicago Bears||-2.5||5-6 (5-6)||-1||+10000|
|26.||Denver Broncos||-3||4-7 (6-5)||-.5||+50000|
|27.||Detroit Lions||-3.5||4-7 (4-7)||-.5||+32500|
|28.||New York Giants||-3.5||4-7 (7-4)||-2||+10000|
|29.||Dallas Cowboys||-5||3-8 (2-11)||-1||+15000|
|30.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-6||1-10 (5-6)||+1||Eliminated|
|31.||Cincinnati Bengals||-7||2-8-1 (7-4)||-1||Eliminated|
|32.||New York Jets||-8||0-11 (3-8)||-.5||Eliminated|
Week 13 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 24.
New Orleans Saints (6 to 6.5) — I’m not really bumping up the Saints for their performance against a practice squad WR last week, but I don’t think I’ve had them high enough with the way their defense is playing in recent weeks. They’re clearly over their early-season struggles as we head into December.
Seattle Seahawks (5 to 6) — I don’t want to get too carried away because of who they played in Week 12, but the Seahawks front 7 is starting to look like a scary group since Carlos Dunlap came to town. They sacked Carson Wentz six times and they limited Eagles RBs to just 9/28 rushing for 3.1 YPC.
Green Bay Packers (5 to 5.5) — The Packers are racing toward another NFC North title after they easily dispatched the Bears, their next closest competitor (at least in the standings), on Sunday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers and company have now 30+ points in eight of their 11 games this season.
Buffalo Bills (3 to 4) — The Bills have covered three straight games after a four-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 5-8. I do have some slight concerns about this passing attack for as long as John Brown is out of the lineup with his ankle injury
Tennessee Titans (2.5 to 3.5) — The Titans avenged their Week 10 Thursday Night Football loss to the Colts with a dominant performance in Week 12. Derek Henry ripped the Colts for 27/178/3 rushing, which vaulted the Titans back to the top of the AFC South with five weeks to go.
Miami Dolphins (1.5 to 2.5) — The Dolphins are a better team with Fitz in the lineup, which will likely be the case for at least the next couple of weeks while Tua Tagovailoa heels his injured throwing thumb. Miami has covered in six of their last seven games after limiting the Jets to three points last week.
Minnesota Vikings (1 to 1.5) — The Vikings dug themselves a major hole in Week 12 by allowing consecutive fumble return touchdowns to the Panthers, but they battled back to win outright in the last minute. The Vikings have played over the total in seven of their last nine games.
San Francisco 49ers (-.5 to 1) — The 49ers will be a team without a home for the next couple of weeks after Santa Clara officials shut down all practices and games in the area. At least the 49ers got back several key players coming out of their bye with Richard Sherman, Raheem Mostert, and Deebo Samuel rejoining the roster last week, which helped them knock off the Rams.
Atlanta Falcons (0 to .5) — The Falcons penned the most stunning result of Week 12 when they demolished the Raiders 43-6 without Julio Jones in the lineup. Atlanta has covered in three of their last four games with their lone ATS loss coming against this week’s opponent, the Saints.
Washington Football Team (-3.5 to -2.5) — The Football Team has a pair of stars in the making on both sides of the ball in Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. All four players balled out on Thanksgiving Day for a national TV audience to vault Washington ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7 to -6) — One of the biggest surprises of Week 12 was that Mike Glennon played like a competent NFL quarterback against the Browns. He averaged 6.7 YPA while posting 235/2 passing with a skeleton crew at receiver with his top two receivers out of the lineup.
Week 13 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 24.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7.5 to 7) — The Steelers won in ugly fashion against the Ravens in Wednesday evening football, but they ended up being big losers with pass rusher Bud Dupree going down with a torn ACL. Dupree accounted for 19.5 sacks over his last 27 games in 2019-20, and his absence will be bad news for the Steelers’ hopes of pressuring Patrick Mahomes later this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.5 to 5) — The Buccaneers covered the spread against the Chiefs last week thanks to a fourth-quarter flurry from this offense, but they never really threatened to win the game outright with Tom Brady throwing his seventh interception in his last four games. Tyreek Hill gashed Tampa’s suddenly vulnerable secondary for 13/269/3 receiving.
Indianapolis Colts (4.5 to 3.5) — The Colts fielded a much different defense with DeForest Buckner out of the lineup over COVID-19 concerns. They also lost LT Anthony Castonzo to an MCL injury for a couple of weeks, which is a concern since Philip Rivers is one of the more pressure-sensitive QBs in the league.
Arizona Cardinals (3.5 to 2) — Kyler Murray is clearly laboring through his AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder, which he initially suffered against the Seahawks back in Week 11. The Cardinals’ offense didn’t have the same juice in Week 12 with Murray rarely looking to tuck it to run. Murray’s aDOT has sat under seven yards in each of his last two games, including his 6.2 aDOT against the Patriots, which dropped his season average down to 8.0.
Las Vegas Raiders (3 to 2) — The Raiders went from nearly knocking off the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 11 to losing 43-6 as 3.5-point road favorites against a Falcons team without Julio Jones. Derek Carr had a miserable performance with three lost fumbles to go along with an interception.
Los Angeles Chargers (0 to -.5) — The knob on Anthony Lynn’s hot seat will be set to 9 this week after yet another abysmal coaching performance in a winnable game against the Bills. The Chargers did get Austin Ekeler back from his hamstring injury last week, and they’ll be looking to get CBs Chris Harris (foot, IR) into the lineup this week.
New England Patriots (-.5 to -1) — The Cardinals did everything they could to lose to the Patriots last week. New England managed just 179 scrimmage yards while averaging a pathetic 3.7 yards per play, but the Cardinals made enough mistakes for the Patriots to pull the victory with a 50-yard field goal by Nick Folk as time expired.
Houston Texans (0 to -1.5) — I initially had the Texans as a riser in my power ratings until word came down that both Will Fuller and Bradley Roby will be suspended for the final five games this season. Fuller’s loss is a huge blow for Deshaun Watson in this explosive passing attack. The Texans cut Kenny Stills last week so they could give fifth-round pick Isaiah Coulter a chance to play on the perimeter. With Roby out of the lineup, the Texans don’t have a CB that’s played 250+ snaps that grades out as a top-100 CB by PFF.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1 to -2) — The Eagles’ broken offense was on full display for the world to see on Monday Night Football as they could muster only nine points against the Seahawks until they hit a Hail Mary TD with 12 seconds left. Carson Wentz has seen one of the biggest passer ratings drops as his 2020 rating sits at 73.4 after he averaged 98.3 in 2017-19.
Chicago Bears (-1.5 to -2.5) — The Bears jumped out to a 5-1 start this season to be “contenders” at the top of the NFC, but they’ve dropped five consecutive games to fall below .500 for the first time this season. The Bears have winnable games over the next four weeks (Det, Hou, @Min, @Jax), but they don’t have the look of a team that can take advantage of these matchups.
New York Giants (-1.5 to -3.5) — I’m dropping the Giants two points this week since they’ll be rolling with Colt McCoy at quarterback for the next couple of weeks while Daniel Jones recovers from his hamstring injury. McCoy will try to keep the train on the tracks with matchups looming against the Seahawks, the Cardinals, and the Browns in the next three weeks.
Denver Broncos (-2.5 to -3) — The Broncos were in an unenviable position last week with a practice squad WR playing quarterback for them with their entire quarterback room ineligible to play. I’m not docking the Broncos for their performance last week, but I am worried they could check out for the season after last week’s debacle and with their chances of making the playoffs quashed.
Detroit Lions (-3 to -3.5) — The Lions cut the cord on HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn after a pathetic Thanksgiving Day performance. Patricia produced a 13-29-1 record (.310 winning percentage) in three seasons after Jim Caldwell went 36-28 with two playoff appearances in four seasons. The Lions should at least get some reinforcements moving forward with D’Andre Swift and Kenny Golladay eyeing returns in Week 13.
Dallas Cowboys (-4 to -5) — The Cowboys got embarrassed on Thanksgiving Day in front of a national TV audience as they averaged just 4.3 yards per play in their 41-16 loss to the Football Team to fall to the basement of the NFC East. Zack Martin and Cameron Erving also left early and are going to miss a couple of weeks, which leaves an already broken O-line in tatters.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6 to -7) — The Bengals covered in their first game without Joe Burrow last week, but they did it on the strength of their special teams as they averaged a pathetic 3.4 yards per play. The battle for the cellar spot in the power ratings is suddenly up for grabs between the Jets, the Bengals, and the Jaguars as we head into December.
New York Jets (-7.5 to -8) — Sam Darnold’s career is in the gutters after three seasons. Washed-up veteran Joe Flacco officially gives the Jets offense a better chance at success than the 2018 third overall pick does. Darnold threw two INTs and he led the Jets to just three points in Week 13.