Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
ATS Record: 18-18-2 (-2.76 units); W8: 1-4 (-4.09 units)
Totals Record: 2-3 (-.95 units); W7: 0-0 (units)
Buffalo Bills (-4, DraftKings) vs. New England Patriots
I missed out on betting this line at -3.5 earlier this week, but I’m jumping on this line now since I think this line could move to -6 by Sunday with Stephon Gilmore (knee) now looking likely to join Julian Edelman on the sidelines for Week 8. Both of these teams are trending in the wrong direction over the last the last couple weeks, but the Patriots could be on a free fall to the bottom half of the league. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have obviously built up some respect in the betting markets over the last 20 years, but that respect is the only reason I think this line is this short. New England’s defense is allowing the fourth-most YPA (8.1) this season so Josh Allen and Stephon Diggs should do what they want if Gilmore is out of the lineup. Also, Cam Newton and this passing attack are broken right now so the Patriots may not be able to climb back into this game if they fall behind. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 30)
Green Bay Packers (-5.5, FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Vikings
I grabbed the Packers at -5.5 on Thursday evening, but I’m comfortable with this line under seven points since I have Green Bay power rated as 7 to 7.5 point favorites this week. Green Bay has a loaded injury report this week, but they’ve listed a bunch of players on their injury report only to have most of their players suit up in recent weeks. It does look like Aaron Jones (groin) will sit out again but Jamaal Williams showed he’s a capable replacement behind him. The Vikings just traded away Yannick Ngakoue during their bye and they could be without their top three CBs this week, which is bad news going into a matchup with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. It could be neutralized some if it’s as windy as they’re predicting for Sunday in Green Bay, but I trust Rodgers to throw in the wind more than Kirk Cousins. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Dalvin Cook is a little limited in this matchup after a three-week absence. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in this series after beating the Vikings 43-34 in the season opener as one-point road underdogs. I’m expecting the Packers to extend that run to 5-1 this week. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (Oct. 29)
Los Angeles Chargers (-1, DraftKings) at Denver Broncos
I broke this game down as part of my Week 8 Opening Line Report. I’m expecting to have the Chargers power rated as the better team by a field goal later this week so I wouldn’t be afraid to bet the Chargers up to -2.5. Risk two units at -110 to win 1.82 units (Oct. 26)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5, DraftKings) at Baltimore Ravens
I broke this game down as part of my Week 8 Opening Line Report. I’m expecting to have the Ravens power rated as -3 to -3.5 point favorites this week so I’d be willing to bet the Steelers down to +4. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 26)
Detroit Lions (+3.5, DraftKings) vs. Indianapolis Colts
I broke this game down as part of my Week 8 Opening Line Report. I’m a bit lower on the Colts than most and I have them coming into Detroit as short favorites. I’d be willing to bet the Lions down to +3 point underdogs this week. Risk one unit at -112 to win .89 units (Oct. 26)
Player Props
Record: 69-56 (+8.61 units); W8: 9-8 (+1.08 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Todd Gurley (Atl) anytime touchdown (-120, FoxBet) (W)
Hayden Hurst (Atl) over 3.5 receptions (+118, FanDuel) (W)
Mark Andrews (Bal) over 42.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 1.5 passing TDs (+136, DraftKings) (W)
Diontae Johnson (Pit) over 52.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill) (L)
Devin Singletary (Buf) under 49.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Stefon Diggs (Buf) over 56.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Le’Veon Bell (KC) over 49.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Malcolm Brown (LAR) over 27.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Matthew Stafford (Det) under 274.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Henry Ruggs (LV) over 31.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet) (L)
Rashard Higgins (Cle) over 3.5 receptions (+125, DraftKings) (L)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) over 4.5 receptions (+128, DraftKings) (W)
Keenan Allen (LAC) over 68.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Justin Herbert (LAC) over 252.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Allen Robinson (Chi) over 4.5 receptions (-121, DraftKings) (W)
Ben DiNucci (Dal) over 13.5 rushing yards (-110, William Hill) (W)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 38.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
Wayne Gallman (NYG) over 2.5 receptions (+125, DraftKings)
