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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
Best Bets ATS Record: 50-48-3 (-3.83 units); SB LV: 1-0 (+.87 units)
Overall ATS Record: 143-121-5 (54.2%); SB LV: 1-0
Totals Record: 5-7 (-2.2 units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, BetMGM) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I grabbed the Buccaneers at +3.5 on Sunday night after the conference championships before Tampa Bay money moved this line to +3. Some +3.5s have started to pop back up since then and I’m going to give it out as a Best Bet well in advance of kickoff. The early betting favorite is 10-2-1 ATS over the last 13 Super Bowls, which bodes well for Tampa Bay backers. I think this line is going to continue to bounce back and forth between +3 and +3.5 until Feb. 7 as this game has the looks of a classic 3.25-point line. By that I mean the favorite (the Chiefs) takes money at -3, which drives the line to -3.5 where the underdog (the Buccaneers) takes money and the line just ping pongs back and forth. If you’re betting the Buccaneers with me, I would make sure to get at least +3.5 so don’t panic if your sportsbook isn’t offering the number. On the flip side, Kansas City backers should be able to get -3 leading up to kickoff and I doubt this line creeps below a field goal unless we get an unexpected injury or a COVID-19 case in the two weeks between games.
I’m a little concerned about the Chiefs offensive line heading into the big game after LT Eric Fisher tore his Achilles in the AFC Championship Game. The Buccaneers pass rush is heating up in the playoffs with Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul combining for five sacks against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They’re going to have to dominate a bad Chiefs offensive line to give the Buccaneers a chance to win after Patrick Mahomes (462/3 passing) and Tyreek Hill (13/269/3 receiving) tormented Tampa Bay’s secondary back in Week 12. Tom Brady has burned me the last two rounds but I’m backing the G.O.A.T. this week against the potential heir to his throne. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (Jan. 26).
Player Props
Record: 175-135 (+31.2 units); CC: 5-4 (+1.69 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Mike Evans (TB) anytime touchdown (+125, DraftKings) (L)
Mike Evans (TB) longest reception over 24.5 yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
Leonard Fournette (TB) anytime touchdown (+125, FanDuel) (W)
Leonard Fournette (TB) over 3.5 receptions (-115, BetMGM) (W)
Leonard Fournette (TB) most rushing yards (+175, DraftKings) (W)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) under 2.5 receptions (+100, BetMGM) (L)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) under 33.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Tyreek Hill (KC) over 88.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 40.5 passing attempts (-110, William Hill) (W)
Long-shot Props
-2.45 units
Patrick Mahomes (KC) first touchdown (+2200, BetMGM). Risk .25 units at +2200 to win 5.5 units. (L)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) last touchdown (+2500, BetMGM). Risk .25 units at +2500 to win 6.25 units. (L)
Cameron Brate (TB) first touchdown (+3000, BetMGM). Risk .25 units at +3000 to win 7.5 units. (L)
Cameron Brate (TB) last touchdown (+2800, BetMGM). Risk .25 units at +2500 to win seven units. (L)
YES — Will an extra point or field goal attempt hit an upright (excludes crossbar)? (+450, FanDuel). Risk .5 unit at +450 to win 2.25 units. (L)
Leonard Fournette (TB) MVP winner (+3000, FanDuel). Risk .25 units at +3000 to win 7.5 units. (L)
Jason Pierre-Paul (TB) MVP winner (+10000, FanDuel). Risk .1 units at +10000 to win 10 units. (L)
Mecole Hardman (KC) MVP winner (+10000, FanDuel). Risk .1 units at +10000 to win 10 units. (L)
Kansas Chiefs D/ST anytime touchdown (+550, BetMGM). Risk .5 unit at +550 to win 2.75 units. (L)
Ben Kukainis
Same Game Parlay (FanDuel)
- Tom Brady OVER 294.5 Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes UNDER 329.5 Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards
- Travis Kelce OVER 98.5 Receiving Yards
- Rob Gronkowski OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
- Darrel Williams OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards
- Scotty Miller OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 30.5 Rushing Yards
