2025 Overrated and Underrated NFL Players

Week 1 is nearly here, folks, and what better time than to write an article on who is over- or underrated? I’m excited for the regular season to start, but I wanted to give you one last piece of advice if you have a draft coming up.

I watched 1-2 hours of film on each of these individuals and am sharing my opinion, based on my years of experience in an NFL personnel department. I’m not projecting how each guy will do this year; I’ll leave that up to the Guru and the other experts we have at Fantasy Points. This is a film-based article intended to bring another perspective to your fantasy decisions.

It helps some of you get off to a hot start this season. Let’s get into it.

Overrated

James Cook (RB, Buf)

This might be a case of recency bias, given that Cook signed a massive extension, but looking at the film, how good is he? The short answer: he’s good, but he benefits from having one of the best offensive lines in the league.

Cook totaled 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns on 207 carries in 16 regular-season games last season. He deservingly made the Pro Bowl, but his 2024 stat line was so odd. How did a back as gifted as Cook barely crack 1,000 yards with that offensive line?

Don’t take this as hate. I like a lot of what Cook can do and what I saw on the film. He’s an explosive runner with good vision and awareness in space, a knack for finding daylight, he can make a lot of defenders miss if he has room to operate, and he’s a capable receiver out of the backfield. He also became a touchdown machine last year since the Bills gave him the ball inside the five more often. I just think he does less than expected with what he’s given.

Cook’s speed sets him apart from many ball carriers in the NFL, but his offensive line also gives him ample free space. What consistently popped up on film was how often Cook got beyond the line of scrimmage before facing any defenders. His yards before contact number confirms that he averaged 2.39 yards of clean space last season (7th-best for RBs with 100+ carries). He’ll likely have a similar YBCO average this season since the Bills brought back the entire starting five up front, but will his yardage total increase?

I’m not saying Cook isn’t a quality running back who is a highly valuable piece of Buffalo’s offense; he is. He’s just propped up by what’s in front of him and is hampered by not being a three-down back. He’s now the seventh-highest paid running back in the league, but I think his on-field performance is closer to 15th.

Kyler Murray (QB, Ari)

There’s no denying that Murray is one of the most electric players in the NFL. Heading into year seven, he’s still extremely dangerous with his legs and has excellent improvisational ability. His total package is a problem for opposing defenses, but the perception of his game is inflated by the threat of what he can do rather than what he consistently puts on film.

Murray did well enough in his first full season in Drew Petzing’s offense, totaling 3,851 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while adding 572 yards (second-highest in his career) and five scores on the ground. He also had the second-highest completion percentage of his career at 68.8%, which generally would be seen as a good thing, but this was artificially propped up by leaning on shorter throws.

Murray was great with shorter, in-rhythm throws that he released right after hitting the top of his dropback. This kept him efficient but limited Marvin Harrison Jr. and the offense’s explosiveness. Murray struggled to hang in the pocket and process the defense on longer-developing routes. His footwork would get frantic, and he held the ball too long, waiting for clear throwing lanes. He was inconsistent outside the numbers, and deeper routes over the middle were a weakness on film. I don’t see him getting much better in either of these areas.

Again, there’s a lot to get excited about in Murray’s game. He’s fun to watch and is a big-play threat every snap. However, I don’t see a high-level quarterback who can win a game with his mind and arm. The rushing and improv skills are excellent and inflate his fantasy value, but I think he’s a bottom-half quarterback, closer to the 18th or 20th-best in the league.

David Njoku (TE, Cle)

I have a lot of personal experience with Njoku going back to my days with the Browns. He was a first-round pick in my first draft with the team and has established himself as an all-around above-average tight end during his eight-year career. I say “all-around” because he’s one of the few TEs that can be an effective in-line blocker while being productive as a receiver.

Unfortunately, I think his receiving ability is overrated and has been his entire career, outside of one season. He caught fire with Joe Flacco for the final few games of 2023 to finish with 81 catches, 882 yards, and six touchdowns (all career highs). However, he hasn’t totaled more than 639 yards, 64 catches, or five touchdowns in any other season.

My most significant issues are his inconsistent hands and inability to be a dominant red-zone threat. Njoku’s route running was stiffer on last year’s film, which isn’t a surprise given how much of a beating his body takes each season, and he frequently had to be schemed open in the short and intermediate areas. He’s learned to be a reliable target by using his body in contested situations, but Njoku had seven drops last year (most for TEs with 35+ targets). Excuse the baseball analogy, but he’s essentially the football version of David Wright for the Mets (makes the hard plays look easy, and the easy plays look difficult).

His red-zone inconsistency has plagued him throughout his career. An end zone fade is one of the worst plays in the sport, especially to a tight end with shaky hands, yet the Browns manage to get him single-covered out wide and try it a couple of times a year. He’s also schemed open less inside the 20 simply because there’s less room to operate, and he’s not the best short-area separator. This leads to more contested targets, but he isn’t as effective using his body to box out defenders here.

He’s not great after the catch either. Njoku will gladly carry a defender on his back for two or three more yards, but he’s lost any hip he had and can barely make defenders miss in space.

Reuniting with Flacco (for now) should make Njoku more productive, but he’s a declining athlete who will struggle to be a big-play option going forward. At best, he’s the 10th-best TE in the league, but I wouldn’t be shocked if some rookies overtake him and he ends up closer to 15th this year.

D.K. Metcalf (WR, Pit)

I’ll start by saying that I like Metcalf as a player. His size, speed, and hands combination is tough to beat, and he’s a bona fide big-play threat. He’s been a consistent producer, totaling 900 yards or more each of his six years in the league, but his touchdown total dropped the last three seasons despite Geno Smith’s resurgence.

Metcalf can take the top off the defense at any time and has the strength to box out any defensive back in the league. His hands were better than expected on film, and he has enough body control to adjust to poor throws. However, the Seahawks kept him in a very well-defined role, in my opinion.

The knock on Metcalf coming out of college was that he had straight-line speed but was too stiff to run a complete route tree. Metcalf has proven that he isn’t as stiff as everyone thought, but he’s not an exceptional route runner. Seattle limited his routes essentially to shallow drags, mid-level digs, comebacks, and fades, which he’s excelled at against off coverage.

While he’s been really good in this role, I saw a guy who struggles to separate against man coverage, especially when he’s pressed. Metcalf lacks suddenness and twitch at the top of the route to shake defenders. He gets a lot of love as a deep threat, which is deserved, but I don’t think he’s a dominant No. 1.

It will be interesting to see how the Steelers use him and if he can create a connection with Aaron Rodgers. Pittsburgh has invested a significant amount of money in its offensive skill positions, headlined by Metcalf, but I don’t think he’ll be able to carry the team in 2025.

I’d rank Metcalf as the 20th-25th best WR in the league. His perception makes that sound ranking sound low. He’ll be productive and make flashy plays, but I can’t justify a higher ranking if he doesn’t improve his route running or become a physically dominant pass catcher.

Underrated

Terry McLaurin (WR, Was)

McLaurin has been one of the steadiest receivers since entering the NFL in 2019. He totaled 919 yards that season and has surpassed 1,000 yards each year since. He popped off last year with a career high 13 touchdowns, thanks to Jayden Daniels, and finally was shown some respect with an extension from the Commanders.

His film was fun to watch since he could run every route in the playbook and separate from just about any defender (24th out of 265 ASS for WRs with 100+ routes last year). His age was a factor in contract negotiations, but McLaurin looked as spry as a rookie in the film I watched. On shorter routes, he was sudden and quick to snap off defenders. He pressured DBs with speed in the intermediate area and maintained shiftiness at the top of the route to create space. He could routinely get behind the defense on deep shots and showed good tracking and body control, adjusting to tougher throws.

The one knock I came up with was that he isn’t the best at using his body to box out defenders, which makes sense since he isn’t as physically imposing as Metcalf. The point is, McLaurin can do it all. In my years with the Browns, I thought he was a fine receiver, but I never saw him as a no-doubt No. 1 option. The addition of Daniels vaults him into that category for me.

Thanks to the contract situation, he has a short amount of time to get in sync with Daniels before the regular season begins, but he has too much natural ability not to pick up where he left off in 2024.

Heading into last season, I would have had McLaurin ranked around No. 20. With Daniels throwing him the ball, I think he’s pushing the top-10.

Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)

2025 will be an interesting season for Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense. He’s entering another season with a new offensive coordinator, but has found some stability and another level of play with the Buccaneers. Mayfield hadn’t thrown for more than 4,000 yards before landing in Tampa; he’s done it both seasons with the team. He’s also won the division twice, something he never did in Cleveland, Carolina (remember that?), or Los Angeles.

Seeing what he was with the Browns and what he’s become with the Bucs, it’s night and day. I always appreciated his arm strength, competitiveness, and creativity early in his career, but there’s been a clear improvement in processing and accuracy. On film, he was deadly accurate in rhythm to his first read, and maintained that accuracy if he had to look for another target or throw on the move. He was effective between the numbers and on the outside, and wasn’t afraid to take off when he had to. Mayfield in 2024 was what we were hoping he’d become in Cleveland.

Yes, he led the league with 16 interceptions, which isn’t great, but I can live with it when he throws 41 touchdowns. The Bucs added to his arsenal by drafting Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson, and while being without Tristan Wirfs to start the season hurts, he has the best offensive line in the league. He’s finally lived up to the first overall pick billing and should have another big season in 2025.

Regarding ranking, quarterbacks are tough since no one outside the top four can really touch those guys. Mayfield’s performance over the last two years has gotten him close. I think he’s firmly within the top 10 and could push for No. 5 with another strong season.

Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)

Earlier, I mentioned that James Cook was good but not worth the $11.5 million per year the Bills recently gave him. Kyren Williams signed an $11 million per year extension right before Cook. Is he worth it? The short answer is that he’s more worthy than Cook since Williams has proven to be more productive over his two seasons as the starter for Los Angeles. (Running back contracts have inflated recently, but that’s a conversation for a different time.)

These two will be linked for a while, given the near-simultaneous extensions and the fact that they were in the same draft class. Cook is the faster, flashier guy, whereas Williams is the more straight-line grinder. However, the perception is that Williams is a compiler whose numbers are inflated by so many carries, and Cook is a big play waiting to happen.

Williams’ film showed he can be productive in both gap and zone scheme runs. He’s tough enough to grind out yards between the tackles and quick enough to be a chunk producer on the outside. I would have liked to see better vision inside, but he has a knack for falling forward. While he’s not the best athlete, I saw a guy with enough body control to adjust his path to get to the edge and good enough speed to eat up yards.

I can’t say Williams will be good enough to push for 2,000 yards one day, but he’s a high-level, steady producer who can be counted on all three downs. He’s not sexy, but he deserves more praise than he’s gotten the last couple of seasons. Williams is right on the edge of the top 10 for me, and probably tops out at No. 10 since he’s not a true home run threat. It won’t be flashy, but Williams is a quality running back.

James Conner (RB, Ari)

Conner being underrated has been a personal issue since my time with the Browns. His first year as Pittsburgh's starting running back was 2018, and he torched us for 135 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. He got us for 146 later that season, but I thought it was due to the Steelers owning us rather than Conner being a good running back. Until 2023, he never surpassed 1,000 yards (primarily due to injury), but I didn’t see it with him.

Watching his film from the last two years proves he’s better than I thought. Arizona’s offensive line wasn’t great in 2023, but he posted 1,040 yards and seven scores in 13 games. Last year, he totaled 1,094 yards and eight touchdowns, adding 47 catches, 414 yards, and a receiving score. His hard-nosed, slashing run style is still super effective eight years into his career, and he adds an element of toughness to the Cardinals’ offense.

Conner is fun to watch, as he can run both rushing schemes seamlessly. He’s big and tough to bring down between the tackles, but still has the foot quickness and speed to be a big play threat if he gets into space on the edge. His cuts are unexpectedly violent to make defenders miss in the short area, and he’s more than capable of lowering his shoulder to run through tacklers.

His pass game production was unexpected last year. I always thought he was a competent receiving back, but 55 targets (2nd-highest in career) is a lot for a back who isn’t a third-down/pass game mismatch. I’ve finally come around on Conner and can say he’s a quality running back who remains a reliable producer. 2025 will be his age-30 season, but I don’t see him falling off a cliff any time soon.

I think his ceiling is No. 15, but Conner is firmly between 15 and 20 at the RB position. He’s a similar case to Williams: He won’t be overly flashy but will get the job done at a high level.