Football is back for 2025, but that also serves as a reminder that the human beings playing the contact sport can get hurt.
These are the fantasy-relevant players returning from a significant injury and how their 2025 outlook may be affected.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (hamstring)
At 32 years old, Prescott has dealt with a couple of serious injuries in his career. The hamstring tear is behind him, but it’s now fair to wonder how the rest of his body will hold up. With a 24% recurrence in hamstring injuries for QBs and the severity of the strain itself (full tear), Prescott’s QB12 price tag is a bit high.
Dak’s upside is already capped due to the lack of rushing. He proved it by finishing as QB22 on a points-per-game basis. He averaged just 1.4 carries for 3.7 yards per game in the games leading up to his injury. It’s no wonder then that in the game he injured his hamstring, he rushed 3 times for 30 yards.
Like we’ve established before, non-mobile QBs are more likely to be injured due to shoulder injuries, rib injuries etc. When guys of Dak’s age and archetype sprint it out, things can go south.
It’s fair to say, given his longer track record, that QB12 is Dak’s floor, and with the addition of George Pickens, he’ll be launching the ball toward the sidelines and in the middle to CeeDee Lamb. Just remember the bet you’re making is that he stays on the field long enough to do so.
J.J. McCarthy (knee - torn meniscus)
It’s been a winding path for McCarthy since entering the league. Here’s a recap:
| Date | Event |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Injury occurs |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Knee swells |
| Aug 14, 2024 | First surgery |
| Nov 13, 2024 | PRP Injection |
| May 1, 2025 | Medically cleared |
| July 26, 2025 | Camp ramp‑up |
| July 28, 2025 | First full‑pads practice |
| July 29, 2025 | Full Go |
At this point, the young QB may have shaved a year off of his career in the long term, but until he has any new complications, you can consider him healthy and relatively low risk to reinjure the knee in 2025.
Trevor Lawrence (left, non-throwing shoulder surgery)
Lawrence suffered a severe AC joint dislocation in his non-throwing shoulder that required surgery. Generally speaking, he’s at increased risk of injury again, but given the fact that it’s his non-throwing shoulder, there shouldn’t be much concern.
If you remember, Baker Mayfield played an entire season with a worse shoulder injury on his non-throwing shoulder, though he didn’t play particularly well.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (knee - Right sprained PCL, bilateral achilles)
McCaffrey’s PCL should heal fine on its own, but there’s a moderate to severe concern for another soft tissue and/or tendon injury.
Here’s a timeline of the 2024 Achilles debacle:
| Date | Event | Direct quote / team message |
| May 22, 2024 | Skipped voluntary OTAs (reason “unknown”) | Shanahan: “I wish they were here, but it’s part of the business.” NFL.com |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Calf strain announced — team expects “a couple of weeks” and no preseason snaps | Shanahan: “You guys probably won’t see him this preseason … likely a couple of weeks.” ESPN.com |
| Aug 21‑28, 2024 | Back jogging on side field | Shanahan says he’s “not concerned” about Week 1 readiness ESPN.com |
| Sep 9 2024 (Week 1) | Surprise inactive vs. Jets; injury report first lists Achilles + calf | McCaffrey later: “Mentally, I’m always prepared to play.” NFL.com |
| Sep 11 2024 | Shanahan: must “be very careful” with the Achilles component | NFL.com |
| Sep 14 2024 | Placed on injured reserve (calf/Achilles) — minimum four games | Team release NFL.com |
| Sep 15 2024 | Asked about the return timetable: “Nobody knows … we’ll take it day by day.” —Shanahan | ESPN.com |
| Nov 10 2024 (Week 10) | Activated & full‑go: 54/61 snaps, post‑game: “It feels good to play football again.” | NBC Sports |
| Dec 1 2024 | Suffers unrelated PCL sprain; season ends (knee, not Achilles) | — |
| Apr 22 2025 | Day 1 of offseason program: McCaffrey reports with “zero restrictions.” | ESPN.com |
| Jul 27‑29 2025 (camp) | Fully cleared; club alternating full days / load‑management days | McCaffrey: “Just trust the plan.” Shanahan: “He’s on board … we need to protect him from himself.” |
In hindsight, the August optimism was strictly hopeful. However, there is legitimate evidence of a real setback, as opposed to bad faith, by the Niners. Setbacks are almost impossible to predict.
McCaffrey (and guys like him) are known for their crazy work ethic. However, that work ethic often gets him in trouble by overexerting his body. To control for this, he’ll alternate between full days and managed days (stretch, installs, individual work, etc.) to “protect him from himself,” per Kyle Shanahan.
I’ll be frank — I built my brand on “Injury Prone is Lie” (because it mostly is). As a PT, I also avoid the “compensation injury” route since we have not personally examined these athletes. Add in the less than 5% reinjury rate for “calf strains” (what we were told the injury was), and I was all in.
But it burned me.
And…
I don’t care because my heart is ready to be broken again.
We play for first place around here, baby! Draft McCaffrey and feel alive. The market mostly agrees with me as he’s going top 4 among RBs.
Remember, I was all in on CMC the year after he missed nearly the entire season with separate injuries. I thought he was worth it then. He’s worth the risk now.
Isiah Pacheco (broken leg - fibula)
There are a handful of injuries not to be too worried about when it comes to running backs, and the fibula is one of them. The reason is that the fibula doesn’t bear much weight at all. In the most severe cases of high ankle sprains, there are also minor fibula fractures.
The season after surgery, RBs bounce back and achieve 89% pre-injury levels in PPR points per game, with a median of 102%
Pacheco should be fine.
Nick Chubb (fractured left foot)
Chubb fractured his foot, adding to his long list of ailments to be concerned about. There’s only about a 15% recurrence rate for foot fractures among running backs. But the rub is coming back and performing.
The sample sizes are not big enough to draw conclusions and should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. But here are boxes to check when analyzing RBs after a foot fracture:
Young age (25 years or younger)
A freak athlete/good player
Good front office support with on-field opportunity
At least an average amount of time to rehab without setbacks
Chubb is obviously a freak athlete and will have some opportunities. But if we’re grading on a curve, it’s not likely after the ACL+ and foot fracture that Chubb wins you your league. Given Joe Mixon’s absence, Chubb is worth a flier, but don’t make it an expectation that he’ll win your league.
Jonathon Brooks (knee - re-tore ACL)
Below is a chart of NFL running backs who suffered a torn ACL two times in their career, dating back to college. The far right column lists their finishing position on a fantasy PPG basis after the second ACL tear.
| Player | Extra ACL tear (year + team/level) | Notes | Following Season (PPG) |
| Jamaal Charles | 2015 – Kansas City Chiefs | Tore right ACL on Oct 11 2015; his first was the left ACL in 2011. ESPN.com | 4.1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2011 – Boise State (college) | Blew out his ACL in practice as a red‑shirt freshman, had it reconstructed, then tore the same knee again in 2018. | 0.8 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2011 – Texas Longhorns (college) | Suffered an ACL/MCL tear vs. Missouri, years before his 2018 Panthers ACL injury. alcalde.texasexes.org | N/A |
| Rodney Anderson | 2018 – Oklahoma Sooners (college) | Tore his right ACL in Week 2 vs. UCLA, then re‑tore it with the Bengals during the 2019 preseason. University Blog Service | N/A |
There’s no need to speculate too much, as the Panthers decided not to bring him back until 2026 (very, very smart). But Brooks does have the following factors in his favor:
- Young age
- A freak athlete/good player
- Good front office support (high draft capital)
- A full year to rehab
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk (knee - torn ACL + MCL)
The 27-year-old Aiyuk is fighting back from an ACL tear, but luckily, there didn’t seem to be any cartilage damage.
As of now, he hasn’t taken live reps, but he’ll be 10 months post-op in mid-September. In other words, as long as he has no complications, it’s perfectly reasonable to expect his return around then.
So what can you expect?
The post-ACL production dip is only 12%, but…
61% of WRs never return to 90% pre-injury production, but
The median post-injury production dip is only 10%.
Receivers are different from RBs, as WRs don’t necessarily require elite athleticism to succeed after an ACL surgery. Instead, receivers who have had a minimally complex injury, are young and interestingly average at least 80% success rate against zone coverage (shoutout to Reception Perception and Matt Harmon), have achieved at least 90% of their pre-injury production.
Aiyuk’s success rate against zone? 85%.
Lastly, based on histor,y there’s already about a 33% chance Aiyuk hits 90% of his previous production.
Here’s the data:
| Time Achieved | % of WRs who Achieved 90%+ of pre-injury Production |
| Never | 61% |
| Year 1 post-op | 33% |
| Year 2 post-op | 6% |
At his current WR52 ADP, Aiyuk is well worth the risk. He becomes slightly overpriced if he’s not activated off the PUP by mid-August, though.
Stefon Diggs (knee - torn ACL)
At 32 years old, it’s tough to be super optimistic on Diggs’ 2025 outlook despite him hovering around 79% success rate against zone (see above).
Remember that chart from ten seconds ago about most WRs not hitting 90% of pre-injury production in year 1? Add in the fact that he has a long history of groin strains and just disrupted his workload patterns with ACL rehab, Diggs is unlikely to win your league.
At WR41, I’ll pass. I’d rather take a gamble on Aiyuk (WR52).
Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle)
You have to feel sick for Godwin. He cannot catch a break. Now, usually foot/ankle injuries are minor for players, but occasionally they can go south. The absolute worst-case scenario that can happen is what happened to Michael Thomas.
To be clear, that is not what is going on with Godwin (Michael Thomas’ body rejected the hardware, which was unexpected, while Godwin’s was a “minor” cleanup procedure). Reports say this was “preventive” in nature, which is totally plausible in 20-30% of cases.
But now we’re getting very bad vibes directly from the Bucs, indicating he might not even be ready by Week 1. Even though they also claim Godwin is hitting milestones and on schedule, they drafted a round 1 WR and are still non-committal with the season less than a month away.
Making matters worse, Godwin also has a history of significant hamstring injuries.
There’s still reason to believe Godwin bounces back and can pay off his WR44 price tag, since on average these injuries don’t impact WRs. You’ll likely just have to wait at least a month for any returns, making him a meh pick.
Rashee Rice (torn hamstring + PLC)
Rice has been cleared for full football activities after his PLC/LCL injury. This injury is brutal and involved his hamstring, so even though we aren’t likely to see a fully healthy Rice right away, he’ll likely look better as the season goes on.
The issue with Rice is that this injury lends itself to potential soft tissue injuries in the future, as the hamstring was involved. He’s moderately risky as of today due to re-injury concerns. Adding in a potential suspension makes drafting Rice a relatively risky pick at WR18.
But when he’s out there, he’s the centerpiece of the passing game. In other words, Rice is a moderate risk/high-reward player.
Christian Watson (knee - torn ACL)
Watson is explosive, but change of direction/deceleration is the name of the game. Personally, I'm *still* rooting for Watson, but his body hasn't cooperated since entering the NFL.
He's young and things can change, but an athlete with/ a long history of soft tissue injuries post ACL is worrisome.
Lastly, most skilled players require at least 9 months for a full recovery after ACL surgery, and Watson won’t reach this milestone until mid-October. He’s worth a dart at WR122. Just pick him up off waivers if you really want him.
Tyreek Hill (wrist)
Hill had wrist surgery to repair a ligament in his wrist that was damaged in August of 2024. He played through it at the time, per his agent, but decided to get the procedure done in February of this year. Interestingly enough, this is the same injury Joe Burrow sustained in 2023.
This injury heals well, and Hill shouldn’t have any issues moving forward.
Tight Ends
Colston Loveland (AC Joint Reconstruction)
With Loveland not on the PUP and looking good in camp, the shoulder isn’t the biggest issue. The only issue he may run into is a hamstring injury since the surgeon took a part of his hamstring tendon to tie down the two bones (in layman's terms).
To say the least, this will likely be a nothing burger.
Taysom Hill (knee - torn ACL)
Hill’s late-December ACL surgery (isolated) places him firmly in September before the Saints even consider bringing him back safely. Now, if he gets active camp reps, we might see him in Week 1.
Still, it makes more sense to work the nearly 35-year-old (you read that right) back slowly, especially if they expect him to maintain his gadget role as a ball carrier and QB.
Other injuries to monitor
Matthew Stafford — Stafford has a history of back problems, so it’s not the most calming news that he received an epidural to ease his pain for an aggravated disc. That being said, these shots are fire extinguishers, and Stafford is one of the toughest dudes going, so for now I share the Rams’ optimism that he will be ready for Week 1.
Joe Mixon — Mixon’s foot is a concern. This is the same injury that caused him to miss a significant number of games in 2020, despite the Bengals claiming he was “fine.”There aren’t many details available at this time, but I would not be drafting Mixon at this point.
