On Tuesday night, July 30, I participated in the FFPC’s Pros vs. Joes draft, which is a 12-team, TE-premium PPR league consisting of six industry “experts” and six “average Joes (or Joannes). I thought I had a very good draft, so here’s a quick review.
John Hansen’s FFPC Pros vs. Joes Draft
1.7 — Ja’Marr Chase (WR1, Cin) — I’m defaulting to RB a lot more this year in Round 1, and I didn’t expect Chase to fall to me at seven. When he did, I was compelled to take a stud who could easily give us his career season in Year Four.
2.6 — Saquon Barkley (RB1, Phi) — Since this is TE-premium, I was hoping to get a crack at one of my “flawless four” RBs, but Jonathan Taylor went right in front of me. I’ve never been a big Barkley guy, but with a stud WR in the fold, I was very inclined to get an anchor RB. He’ll lose goal-line touches to Jalen Hurts, and the OL may not be as dominant as it’s been the last few years, but I like Barkley this year in a good situation in Philly.
3.7 — Travis Etienne (RB2, Jax) — This pick was actually auto-drafted for me, as I was returning home from dinner after drafting from my phone Rounds 1-2. But honestly, I probably would have made this pick, since I didn’t love the WRs on the board, and the draft already saw the top-4 TEs go off the board before I made my second pick.
4.6 — Michael Pittman (WR2, Ind) — I’m less inclined to load up on WR early this year, but I still want to devote major resources to make sure I’m productive at the position. I certainly wasn’t going to take another RB, and the TE talent and the top-7 TEs were off the board.
5.7 — Christian Kirk (WR3, Jax) — One of the reasons I’m a little less inclined to go WR-heavy this year is because I’m seeing some quality wideouts going off the board 35+ picks into a draft, and I’d classify Kirk as “quality.” Yes, the added Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas, and Evan Engram is a target hound, but Kirk rules in the slot in Jacksonville, where he was responsible for 49% of Jacksonville’s slot targets and 57% of their slot receiving yards. He’s easily Trevor Lawrence’s No. 1 WR.
6.6 — Rhamondre Stevenson (RB3, NE) — I was out on him last year, but I’ve been high on Rhamondre all off-season, and things are looking good to open camp. Stephenson has been talking about how much he loves the new scheme, which includes more outside zone, a scheme Rhamondre mostly ran in college. The passing game won’t be great, but with little competition on the roster, Rhamondre should be good for 300+ touches if he can play 14+ games.
7.7 — Joe Burrow (QB1, Cin) — I’m not as high on Burrow this year compared to the last couple years, but I still love him as a player and firmly believe that we haven’t yet seen his best season. With Ja’Marr Chase slipping to me at 1.7, I had to team him with Burrow, given the potential knockout blow they could
8.6 — Jameson Williams (WR4, Det) — I’m all about youth, pedigree, and ROI on my picks, and Williams has what I’m looking for this year. It’s a terrific environment for him to break out, given the strong OL and running game, and a professional QB who can get him the ball. The vibes have been good this summer (and all year), so he’s a great WR4 in Best Ball, where upside is more important.
9.7 — Brandin Cooks (WR5, Dal) — From Week 10 on last year, Cooks was 30th in WR targets (52) and he put up a strong 37/492/6 with a good 71% catch rate, and now he’ll enjoy a higher target and route share with Michael Gallup off the roster. I really saw no signs of slippage last year, and he should continue to get more and more comfortable with Dak Prescott.
10.6 — Tyler Conklin (TE1, NYJ) — I went “zero TE” in this one, which is risky, but I’m incredibly confident that Conklin can deliver if he gets a full year of Aaron Rodgers. The duo has been hooking up since 2023’s training camp, and I see him as the #2 option in the passing game for Rodgers, so all he needs to come up big for you is touchdowns. I think he’ll get them with Rodgers having trust in him.
11.7 — Luke Musgrave (TE2, GB) — I view Conklin as safe and steady but with some upside, while Musgrave is probably more volatile. He may not be “steady” in a crowded receiving corps, but he is a high-end talent, so he certainly has a chance to break out in a good offense with a good QB. Musgrave’s data is solid, as he ranked in and around the top 30 out of 80+ TEs with 50 or more routes run in just about all of the important metrics. He passed my eyeball test with relative ease.
12.6 — Kirk Cousins (QB2, Atl) — Kirkie is off to a great start in camp, showing the needed mobility to not be a complete sitting duck in the pocket, and he’s executed the offense very well, so they feel they’re ahead of schedule as they install a new offense, one that Cousins is familiar with.
13.7 — Marvin Mims (WR6, Den) — Among 120 WRs with at least 25 targets, Mims was fifth with 11.4 yards per target, and now his weak 6.9% target share (105th out of 120) should easily double with Jerry Jeudy gone and with Mims all but a lock to open the season as the #2 WR.
14.6 — Ray Davis (RB4, Buf) — I am a little light at RB, so I liked Davis as a pick for some upside, and also for the solid role I envision for him alongside James Cook. He’s not an ideal RB4 in a 12-teamer, but I did hold off a while on adding my fourth back, and the versatile Davis could be a league-winning type if Cook misses time.
15.7 — Roschon Johnson (RB5, Chi) — I hit the position again with a young back who’s talented enough to be, at worst, a team’s second back. It’s a bit of a quagmire in the Bears backfield again, but I don’t have much confidence in D’Andre Swift, and Kahlil Herbert was not drafted by the current regime. It’s not a stretch to believe Johnson will be a possible starter for me 4-6 times this year.
16.6 — Ricky Pearsall (WR7, SF) — I love Ricky like a son, but even I think he’s a little overpriced at WR66 for season-long leagues as of early August. However, I think (as of 8/2) there’s better than a 50/50 chance that Brandon Aiyuk is traded, which would be a major boon to Pearsall’s stock and would immediately make the first-rounder an excellent value as my WR7.
17.7 — Rashod Bateman (WR8, Bal) — Speaking of values, at this point, I’m interested in a younger former #1 pick on a team without a clear WR1, especially in a make-or-break year. That describes Bateman, who looks healthy in camp (minus a minor injury or soreness last week) and is moving well and running good routes. I’d have less interest in a non-best ball league, but Bateman should get me 2-3 quality starts at least if healthy, so he was a slam-dunk pick this late as my WR8.
18.6 — JJ McCarthy (QB3, Min) — I know he’s off to a slow start in camp, but it’s a long season, and Sam Darnold simply can’t be counted on to hold the rookie at bay all year. McCarthy could be a wasted pick for half the season or more, but I think he’ll get 8-10 starts at least and can provide 2-3 quality starts in case I need him.
19.7 — Daniel Bellinger (TE3, NYG) — I know Theo Johnson was drafted with the hopes that he can be a Darren Waller type, but I expect his progress to be slow-ish, so I think the boring Bellinger has a chance to haul in 50+ balls. He’s one of the least explosive TE1s in the league, but the guy’s also caught 55 of 63 career targets, which is impressive.
20.6 — Miles Sanders (RB6, Car) — This is a complete shot in the dark, but it’s on a player who was a top-50 pick this time last year. If things are going well with rookie Jonathan Brooks this fall, Sanders could also be a trade candidate. To show how late this was, the next RB drafted in this final round was someone named “Carson Steele.” I have not read the full dossier on Steele, but he’s a RB/FB hybrid, so if he has any value to the Chiefs, I’m guessing it will be as a blocker.
Hansen’s Final Thoughts
I tried to stay patient in this draft, and because of that, I found some good values, starting even with my first pick of Ja’Marr Chase. I like how I have a nice combination of steady and boring (Cousins, Cook, Rhamondre, etc.) and exciting upside picks (Jameson, Mims, Musgrave, etc.). I thought I did a good job of not overdoing it at wide receiver in the first six rounds, which enabled me to take advantage of the quality depth at the position this year while also giving me a strong threesome at RB. If my cheap TE options hold down the fort at the position and give me only average production, I should have a very well-balanced and competitive team.
