This article will be continuously updated through Sunday morning.
This is in addition to a Tuesday update with transaction recommendations, and a Thursday Night Football preview. Remember that these projections are an imperfect analysis working with the most current information and five years of historical data. If players practice in full, they’ll be excluded from any specific analysis and should be assumed healthy unless otherwise stated.
Sunday Update
Actives/Expected Actives
Deshaun Watson, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kareem Hunt, Craig Reynolds
Inactive/Expected Inctives
Justin Fields, Zach Charbonnet, Daniel Jones, Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo
Game Time Decision
DK Metcalf
The following fantasy-relevant players are officially OUT this week, doubtful, or trending in the wrong direction:
“*” indicates full breakdown below
Damien Harris
Justin Fields
Roschon Johnson
Greg Dulcich
David Montgomery
Kylen Granson
Justin Watson
Kyren Williams
Jimmy Garoppolo
Pat Freiermuth
Kyler Murray
Here are more players to keep an eye on:
- Deshaun Watson*
- Josh Allen (start him)
- Christian McCaffrey*
- Jahmyr Gibbs*
- Aaron Jones*
- Travis Homer
- Zach Charbonnet*
- DK Metcalf*
- Tyler Lockett*
- Deebo Samuel*
- Diontae Johnson*
- Mike Evans*
- Dawson Knox
- Dalton Kincaid
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson - Shoulder (Rotator cuff contusion)
Watson is likely back this week. In superflex leagues, you have to plug him in. This should be a soft landing spot as the Colts are a semi-pass funnel with a 12th-ranked passing EPA and middle of the pack against the run.
Daniel Jones - Neck
Same as last week, even if Jones plays, he’s not startable in most formats.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey - Ribs/Oblique
Since 2018, the data tells us that McCaffrey probably sits without practicing Saturday. If he’s upgraded to limited on Saturday, it’s all but a lock he goes. Even if he’s not upgraded, there’s still a chance he goes. For those wondering what to do, here’s how to handle it: tap McCaffrey’s name in your app, put him in the RB1 slot, and put your device down. Unless you’re absolutely loaded at RB this week in particular, the reality is you’re probably going to lose without him in your lineup. If he plays and is limited, you will also probably lose. So just go down swinging and hope he plays.
Jahmyr Gibbs - Hamstring
Gibbs will return this week but comes with reinjury risk, as mentioned before. He’s a decent tournament play but riskier in cash games. He should be in most season-long lineups as well.
Aaron Jones - Hamstring
The 28-year-old hasn’t been healthy basically all season and is still limited in practice. He’s riskier than Gibbs and strictly a tournament play until he proves otherwise. He should be in most season-long lineups, though.
Zach Charbonnet - Hamstring
Since 2018 only 2 of 30 skill players from Seattle have played after a full week of no practice. It’s not likely Charbs goes making Ken Walker a fantastic cash game consideration.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf - Hip/Ribs
Here are some quotes from Pete Carroll regarding Metcalf’s status: "He’s pretty sore still. He’s still working at it. It’s going to be all the way up to game time."
Coupling Carroll’s overly optimistic rhetoric on injuries and the fact that 60% of Seattle skill players who are limited in Friday practice sessions don't play on Sunday makes this situation murky at best. Still, Metcalf has been a gamer for most of his career. He’s highly volatile in a good matchup and isn’t necessarily a must-start. He’s not a DFS consideration. The chalk could end up being Tyler Lockett which is fine, but in reality, this could finally be the opening that Jaxon Smith-Njigba needs to make a mark.
Tyler Lockett - Hamstring
Lockett is off the report but is 31 years old and dealing with hamstring tightness. This is another opportunity to bring up JSN again. With DK Metcalf also banged up, this is as big of an opening JSN has gotten all season against a bottom 3 pass defense by EPA. He’s a good tournament pivot off of Lockett. If it doesn't happen this week, 2023 might not be JSN SZN.
Deebo Samuel - Shoulder
Deebo is in a different situation than Christian McCaffrey. Based solely on gut, CMC is more likely to go as of Saturday morning than Deebo. When looking at the data, the most likely scenario here is that Deebo either sits or is primarily a decoy. He’s probably a must-start for most managers, but if active should not be used in DFS lineups with any confidence.
Diontae Johnson - Hamstring
Johnson is returning from IR after a hamstring strain. Unless your name is Cooper Kupp, we should expect a 15% dip in fantasy production for Johnson in his first game back. There’s also reinjury risk to consider here. Still, against a middle-of-the-pack Rams passing defense, Johnson should be in most lineups and is a tournament consideration.
Good luck!
