If you’re reading this, congrats on making the fantasy semifinals. That’s a great success, especially if you’re streaming defenses.
I have to confess. I didn’t take my own advice. Last week, I had the opportunity to add and start the Dolphins' DST vs. the lowly Jets. I debated. I pondered. I looked at the stats. Ultimately, I opted for the Chiefs DST vs the Patriots. New England is another terrible offense that could’ve easily coughed it up several times.
While both were solid options, the Dolphins were obviously superior. As we always preach in this article, home favorites vs bad QBs, crappy lines, and terrible OCs. The Jets checked every single one of those boxes. Plus, Miami’s offense could and did push the pace to force New York into a negative game script. That wasn’t going to be the case with the slow-paced Pats taking on the offensively challenged Chiefs.
In my league scoring, Miami recorded 25.33 points thanks to six sacks, two picks, and two fumble recoveries in a shutout. The Jets have no chance of scoring points. I failed to see it in plain sight. KC gave up 17 points, along with four sacks and a takeaway. Good for just 7.83 points.
I lost my matchup.
That’s not going to happen again. And it’s not something you’re going to misstep on either. So let’s make sure even if we have an elite defense, we are looking at the matchups and picking the absolute nuts spot for point production.
With that said, let’s see who’s available in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues that we can add and start in Week 16.
Higher-owned but shaky
Green Bay Packers (GB, 47%) – This Packers DST isn’t very trustworthy, but this is all about an ideal matchup. Carolina stinks. Yes, they just beat the Falcons, but that’s a team with an unserious coach. The Pack can get after the QB, as evident by their five sacks of Baker Mayfield in Week 15. Carolina has given up at least three sacks in every game since Week 5.
My top target to plug and play
Chicago Bears (CHI, 14%) – The Bears have been elite for a month or so, and it will likely continue when they host Arizona in Week 16. This unit has eight sacks and six takeaways over the last two weeks. Kyler Murray is taking a beating and, last week, threw a pair of interceptions. Chicago should be at the top of streamers' lists for semi-finals weekend.
Going deeper for big underdogs
Washington Commanders (WAS, 14%) – They play the Jets. Do we really need a breakdown? OK, fine. NY gave up six sacks and four turnovers last week vs Miami. They scored zero points. This pathetic Jets offense has scored seven points or less in five of their last seven games. I know Washington isn’t good at all, but the matchup is almost foolproof.
Denver Broncos (DEN, 47%) – A date with the Patriots is the ultimate get-right. New England allows the fourth most fantasy points to opposing DSTs. The game is in Mile High, making me like Denver even more. This Pats team can’t throw the football. If Denver can get any lead, it’s not hard to imagine Bailey Zappe taking sacks and making mistakes.
DST Plays on DraftKings
Packers ($3900) @ CAR – No chance I’m paying the most for a meh defense, even in this amazing matchup. Look elsewhere on the Sunday slate.
Colts ($3800) @ ATL – We could see ol’ “Hospital Ball” Heinicke for the Falcons. Nothing makes defenses lick their chops like those words. This isn’t a great price, either. Pass.
Bills ($3500) @ LAC – Everyone playing DFS is clicking this. If you have eyes, you know why.
Broncos ($3300) vs NE – Bailey Zappe, on the road, in prime time. Build a showdown slate around this one.
Jets ($3100) vs WAS – This is my favorite play of the weekend. Sam Howell and this sad sack offense vs one of the best secondaries in football. Um, yeah, click it.
Bears ($2800) vs ARI – Here’s another incredible play. I would assume this is very popular as well. Arizona is on the road in chilly Chicago; forget about it.
Vikings ($2500) vs DET – My sneaky play. Minnesota is one of the best defenses in football right now. Don’t be surprised if they don’t bring out bad Jared Goff in this one. No one will be playing them.
Raiders ($2300) @ KC – Punt play. Chiefs offense isn’t clicking. Vegas can rush the passer. If things break the right way, we could get some sacks and a pick-six.
Raiders ($2300) @ KC – Punt play. Chiefs offense isn’t clicking. Vegas can rush the passer. If things break the right way, we could get some sacks and a pick-six.
