2023 Week 15 Underdog Battle Royale Strategy

Underdog’s weekly Battle Royale tournaments are a relatively new and growing contest format that blends everything I love about DFS and best ball. The flagship contest is essentially a large field DFS tournament where you draft against others in an Underdog lobby.

As there’s very little content aimed at this format, I believe there is a big edge to be had for those willing to put in the work. Luckily, I’ve done all of that for you below.

The basic tenets of Battle Royale strategy are quite similar to DFS. Generally, you want to put together at least one stack of a QB, one or more of his pass catchers, and possibly a player from the opposing team (a “bring-back”). Making these correlated bets will raise your team's ceiling and increase your chances of placing near the top of a field that includes thousands of entries.

Also, like DFS, it benefits you to select players in Battle Royale that few other entrants will have on their roster — as long as they have the ceiling to outscore the more popular players. It’s comparatively easier to “get unique” in Battle Royale, as simply scrolling down to players with ADPs beyond 34.0 or so gives you access to options who will be selected in very few draft lobbies, while players with an ADP above 30.0 will be selected in close to 100% of drafts.

In this article, I aim to accomplish both of these objectives together. Here’s how to build correlated, unique cores that I believe stand the best chance of taking down the Week 15 Battle Royale.

Format, Scoring, and Things To Know For Beginners

Each Battle Royale draft contains six people and lasts six rounds, for a total of 36 picks. On Sunday, you compete against all 67,500 people who have entered a draft. Each pick has a 30-second clock, so drafts take only a few minutes. It is very easy to bang out many in one sitting.

Each roster has space for 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. The scoring is a normal half-point per reception format, similar to what you would find on FanDuel or Underdog’s season-long best-ball contests.

Somewhat like a DFS tournament, 10% of the total prize pool is paid out to the top scorer, with the rest distributed to the top ~18% of finishers in gradually declining payouts based on placement. This means it is critical to draft for upside, as you only win something if you place very highly.

Like a DFS main slate, only players from the early afternoon and late afternoon Sunday games are included in the pool.

Unlike in season-long best ball drafts, “reaching” a little is usually OK in these lobbies, especially if it’s to put together a stack that won’t be available to you at your next pick, and especially in the final two rounds (where you get a massive ownership advantage from reaching). On the other hand, taking a player falling far past their ADP from the early rounds is also a good way to create a unique team naturally.

The biggest exception to this comes at the beginning of Round 1, where frequently reaching across multiple drafts is probably a bad idea. Your draft slot is random each time, and especially on shorter slates with fewer elite options, you’ll have a hard time getting the top 1-3 players by ADP (who are often in a tier of their own) if you don’t happen to get a top pick. That means if you want any of the best plays to be included in your portfolio of rosters, you have to take advantage of the opportunity whenever you get an early draft slot.

There are no hard-and-fast rules on which positions to draft when — the optimal early selections will be different on every slate. Refer to the “Macro-Level Slate Notes” section below to get an idea of how I’m viewing the tiers at each position, and how I’m generally playing the first round.

From there, pay attention to who you can stack, which positions your roster still needs, and which positions your opponents have already filled for guidance (e.g., if all five other drafters have already selected a QB, you can wait until the final round to select whichever remaining QB you want).

Key Game-Stacks

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 16.5, QB3)

The Cowboys have led the NFL with a +10.1% pass rate over expected since their bye. Their 64.3% pass rate inside the 10-yard line ranks 4th-highest. In other words, this team’s playcalling is incredibly conducive to fantasy points being scored through the air, so long as they don’t blow away their opponent in the first three quarters.

This season, Prescott has averaged 17.3 FPG in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarter (QB3), but only 4.6 FPG in the 4th quarter (QB16). He’s averaged only 7.8 dropbacks in 4th quarters (QB27) compared to 10.4 dropbacks in all other quarters (QB4) — that’s a 25% decrease in volume at the end of games.

That’s not to say that Prescott needs a highly competitive game to succeed — after all, he’s been fantasy football’s QB1 since his bye, averaging 27.4 FPG with a whopping five top-3 weekly finishes, while only two of his team’s games have been decided by fewer than 20 points — but it’s hard not to perceive a little extra upside this week against a surging Bills offense that is favored in the highest over/under game of the slate (50.5).

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 2.4, WR1)

Since the bye, Lamb has led all WRs in Underdog FPG (23.4), air yards (1,000), and end zone targets (14). He makes for a natural stack with Prescott, as no other Cowboys player has achieved more than an 18.0% first-read target share over that span, while Lamb’s has been up at 36.7% (2nd-best among slate-eligible WRs).

The strategy-based argument against Prescott and Lamb is a familiar one for regular readers — stacking them requires you to spend the 1.01 or 1.02 on Lamb, which means you’re reducing your exposure to Christian McCaffrey in a smash spot. You also could well be beaten by Lamb or McCaffrey naked in a lineup next to a cheaper stack. The stack’s straightforward nature also means it will be among the most common in the tournament.

The likely chalkiness of Lamb-Prescott doesn’t worry me, as there are multiple secondary pieces from this game (below) that I would love to add to the core, which should help in the uniqueness department. The problem of opportunity cost is a real one, but it can be mitigated by drafting more volume and mixing in a few McCaffrey and Lamb teams with this article’s second game stack.

And it’s not as if Lamb has no argument to be selected over McCaffrey — this slate is much thinner at WR than at RB, meaning Lamb arguably has less competition to get into the optimal lineup. I’m not necessarily advocating it, but I do think selecting Lamb on every third or fourth 1.01 to increase your Cowboys exposure is a valid move.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 32.9, RB11)

The Bills have turned notably more run-heavy since OC Joe Brady took over, going from a top-5 pass rate over expectation (PROE), to bottom-10 over the last four weeks. That’s been a minor boost to overall volume for Cook, but the bigger change for him is the massive increase in goal-line usage.

Since Week 10, Cook has earned a 62% snap share and 58% of backfield usage inside the 10. In Cook’s first nine games, he only managed a 29% snap share and 21% of backfield usage inside the 10.

Also notably, the Bills’ backfield has been targeted at a 21.2% rate over that split, compared to just 11.7% before Brady took over. That has translated into a bump from 2.9 to 4.5 targets per game for Cook — a 55% increase. Cook’s newfound touchdown equity and improving usage make him a great bring-back in a likely high-total game who will not be taken in every lobby if his ADP holds.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 34.9, TE6)

Kincaid is a much thinner play than Cook, but as we saw last week, TE is a great place to spread out your exposures and get weird. Despite the return of Dawson Knox, Kincaid still ran a 69.4% route share in Week 14, only slightly below his mark of 76.4% in games Knox missed. Critically, Kincaid (79.3% of routes) was clearly favored over Knox (3.4%) in 11-personnel, a reversal from when they last shared the field.

While the overall usage and especially target depth are question marks, it’s hard not to consider a semi-unique piece at TE at least averaging 7.5 targets per game over his last six games (3rd-most among slate-eligible TEs). That he is on the offense with the slate’s 3rd-best implied total and fits perfectly into this game stack only sweetens the deal, as he’s a plausible candidate to benefit from a shootout in Buffalo.

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 27.8, QB5)

This game is tied with Bills/Cowboys for the highest over/under on the slate (50.5), with Stafford facing a Commanders defense that has allowed a whopping +7.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs through the air this season, the highest mark in the league. That’s largely because they’ve allowed 277.9 passing YPG (4th-most) and 8.06 YPA (most).

Both numbers have grown even larger over Washington’s past five games since trading Chase Young and Montez Sweat, likely in part due to generating pressure on only 27.5% of dropbacks (2nd-worst). Stafford averages 8.13 YPA on unpressured throws (5th-best).

Though he had a rough showing in his first game back from his thumb injury, Stafford has since averaged 23.7 FPG (QB3 among slate-eligible players) and 5.3 deep throws per game (QB3). Along with Puka Nacua (below), he’s a part of the best stack that can consistently be obtained alongside Christian McCaffrey. There are a lot of reasons to plan for heavy exposure.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 12.5, WR7)

The Commanders are the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+6.9 FPG) and have allowed a league-leading 2.40 YPRR to opposing pass catchers lined up outside.

So far this year, 11 different players have gone over 90 receiving yards against Washington, and 10 of those players ran the majority of their routes on the outside. Nacua has run 68.2% of his routes from outside since Cooper Kupp returned.

This sets Nacua up nicely on a week when he, for some reason, has a materially later ADP than his counterpart. Yardage props across the industry have Kupp and Nacua projected within 5 receiving yards of each other. That’s not to say I won’t have any Kupp teams when drafting at the back end of Round 1, but the ability to pair Nacua with a top-2 pick is massive.

One-Offs

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 30.0, RB9)

De’Von Achane has yet to practice this week, but even if he plays, Mostert can be counted on to play at least half of the snaps based on recent usage. This Jets defense is the 7th-most extreme run funnel in the NFL and has allowed +2.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs this season (5th-most). The early-week uncertainty around this backfield kept Mostert’s ADP quite low for the first ~20% of drafts, so he’ll carry a bit of an ownership advantage against those early-week teams regardless of how high he rises.

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (ADP: 32.8, QB6)

I’m including Fields and Moore in this section rather than the previous one because I’m rarely going to enter a draft intending to stack them. But they are fine lifelines if you get sniped, and they are both viable as naked plays due to Fields’ league-leading 50.9 rushing YPG. And the Browns’ defense — which plays the 4th-most man coverage in the NFL, requiring coverage players to turn their back to the QB — may be an ideal matchup for Fields, who has averaged 8.2 rushing FPG against teams ranking top-10 in man coverage this year. It helps that this Browns defense is riddled with injuries.

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears (ADP: 23.0, WR9)

If Fields’ production comes through the air rather than on the ground, Moore is also a solid value who benefits greatly from facing man coverage. As proof, he has one of the week’s best grades in our coverage matchup tool and tends to dominate his team’s receiving production even more than usual against these looks. The large number of horrendous matchups and injuries thinning out the position make him the latest truly viable WR available, outside of what I’d consider “weird” plays.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 17.7, RB5)

Though White has mostly made his fantasy football living in the receiving game, he could have a path to upside on the ground as well this week. Over his past three games, White has amassed 71.3% of team rushing yards and 71.4% of team rush attempts, the 2nd-most of any RB.

The Packers have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in 9 of 13 games this season, including each of their last five in a row. Their 141.8 rushing YPG allowed ranks 2nd-most, while their 4.61 YPC allowed ranks 5th-most. They have allowed a -2.2% pass rate over expectation this season, making them the 2nd-most extreme run funnel in the NFL.

Macro-Level Slate Notes

• This slate houses three games with an over/under above 47 points, with all the rest coming in at 42.5 or lower. That environment is particularly restrictive when it comes to building unique teams, as the separation between the NFL haves and have-nots has rarely been starker. Leaning into game stacks a little more heavily than usual could prove sharp.

• With that in mind, I am largely sticking to the top-6 QBs by ADP this week, with Patrick Mahomes the only one of those six I actively plan to have zero exposure to. I will happily take the rare Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs stack if it falls to the Round 2/Round 3 turn.

• If C.J. Stroud somehow ends up playing, I will begin drafting a ton of him, as he’ll be on virtually no teams drafted before Friday afternoon. The same goes for Dalton Schultz, who is viable as a “get-different” TE even if Stroud does not suit up.

• This slate is thinner than the past few weeks at RB, a reality that will only worsen if De’Von Achane is ruled out. I like James Cook and Raheem Mostert late, but the middle-round grouping of Rachaad White, Derrick Henry, and Saquon Barkley is where the best value lies this week. Of course, if you take Christian McCaffrey early, feel free to skip over that tier and just wait for Cook or Mostert.

• There are only eight WRs I truly like on this slate, and seven of them have an ADP within the first two rounds. Drafting at least one there feels mandatory, and luckily it’s not too difficult given the lower ADPs of the QBs this week.

• Aside from favoring Dalton Kincaid in Cowboys stacks and liking Schultz as a unique play, I again don’t have a great read on the TEs on this slate. I’d recommend just spreading out your exposure at a position so ruled by touchdown scoring. I’ll just say I’m unwilling to pay the Stefon Diggs or Bijan Robinson-sized opportunity cost of drafting Travis Kelce.

Round 1 Strategy

Step #1 is to pray you get the first or second overall pick, as Christian McCaffrey (due to his massive projection and dream matchup) and CeeDee Lamb (due to him being required for the week’s best stack) are the clear 1.01 and 1.02.

Failing that, I’m prioritizing Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp over Kyren Williams, as there are fewer opportunities to select well-projected WRs later in the draft than RBs, and I expect the Rams to attack the league’s 7th-most extreme pass funnel through the air rather than on the ground.

After those five are off the board, Stefon Diggs and Bijan Robinson are the most enticing options at the turn. There’s little reward to drafting Tyreek Hill until we know he’ll be cleared to play, as you’re not getting any real ownership or ADP advantage from taking him earlier in the week, and it would be a massive blow to your lineup’s projection if he doesn’t go.

Week-Winning Sleeper

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 34.4, WR16)

I badly wanted Christian Watson to make this spot this week, but with him trending toward being out after missing two straight practices, Reed’s chances of another big game continue to rise. The Buccaneers have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs of any team, with Reed coming off a season-high 10 targets last week in Watson’s absence. Reed is also live to benefit from more rushing attempts in the red zone with A.J. Dillon trending toward missing this week.

I won’t cheat by having two official week-winning sleepers, but since Reed is the weakest one I’ve identified so far this season (mostly due to the weakness of this slate), I should mention that Noah Brown would take this spot if I knew C.J. Stroud would play. Brown could operate as the Texans’ WR1 with both Tank Dell and Nico Collins out, has multiple top-10 weekly finishes under his belt already this season, and faces a Titans defense surrendering the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs.