This article will be continuously updated through Sunday morning.
This is in addition to a Tuesday update with transaction recommendations. Remember that these projections are imperfect analyses, working with the most current information and five years of historical data. If players practice in full, they’ll be excluded from any specific analysis and should be assumed healthy unless otherwise stated.
Sunday Update
Expected Active
Trevor Lawrence, Chris Olave, Derek Carr, Breece Hall, Zach Charbonett, Kenneth Walker, Amari Cooper, Justin Jefferson, Travis Etienne
Expected OUT
Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed
“*” indicates full breakdown below
Josh Allen
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Trevor Lawrence*
Patrick Mahomes
Derek Carr*
Geno Smith*
Taysom Hill (doubtful)
Tyrod Taylor
Will Levis
Jonathan Taylor (OUT)
Isiah Pacheco (OUT)
Raheem Mostert
Derrick Henry*
Breece Hall*
Aaron Jones*
Zach Charbonnet*
Kenneth Walker*
Amari Cooper*
Christian Watson (doubtful)
Rashid Shaheed (doubtful)
Justin Jefferson*
Dalton Schultz (OUT)
Dawson Knox
Dalton Kincaid
Dallas Goedert*
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence - High Ankle
Apparently, Lawrence is gonna give it a go. This tracks, as he’s played through some gnarly injuries this season. Still, gamers should consider looking in another direction, as there’s an 18% reinjury risk, and his rushing will be limited. For context, ribs/shoulder reinjury rates for
QBs is 13%, while hamstring/knee reinjury rates are 14%.
Derek Carr - Concussion/Shoulder/Ribs
Carr has been limited all week due to his several ailments, and even though it appears he’ll clear protocol by kickoff, it’s not a slam dunk he’ll play. This is largely due to his concussion re-injury risk. The last thing the league wants is a Tua situation from 2022. Considering Carr is in protocol for the second time this season, his re-injury risk is off the charts.
Geno Smith – Groin
Geno tweaked his groin, and the Seahawks called up Sean Mannion. A soft tissue injury on Friday isn’t great, but the Seahawks use the injury report sporadically, and generally, it's not reliable. Still, Geno is at risk of sitting but as of today. Make sure to check back in, though.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry - Concussion Protocol
Henry was not diagnosed with a concussion but didn’t finish Week 13 due to the league and/or Titans being cautious. Still, he’s got a 5% chance to reinjure. Start him everywhere you normally would.
Breece Hall - Ankle
Hall was limited on Friday with an ankle injury. Assuming this is a lateral or “low” ankle sprain, we should assume only a modest dip in production, but the median dip in fantasy points caps his overall ceiling. Additionally, there’s a 15% reinjury risk.
Aaron Jones - Knee
Jones has been out with this MCL issue for nearly three weeks, but has been practicing this week. Assuming the Packers activate him (again, a moderate-sized assumption) his reinjury risk is 12%. Now that AJ Dillon has a groin issue and the Packers offense is rolling, gamers can semi-trust Jones with a role that should take return numbers close to Jones’ season-long averages. He’s more attractive in PPR leagues, though.
Zach Charbonnet (knee) and Kenneth Walker III (oblique)
I have much more confidence in Charbs this week compared to Walker. That’s primarily because the reinjury rate for knee injuries is low, and impact on performance is minimal. Still, Charbonnet isn’t immune to a reinjury. Conversely, Walker has struggled with abdomen injuries since the preseason, and the worst-case scenario of reinjury and needing a longer layoff is in the cards. That type of outcome is generally not mentioned because it doesn’t need to be. But for him, it needs to be called out.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson - Hamstring
Your heart needs to be ready. It needs to be ready to rejoice. It needs to be ready to suffer. Given J.J. has given this injury as long as he possibly could, it’s now or never for the superstar. Expect volatility due to reinjury risk, but man, he is absolutely worth the risk in all formats.
Amari Cooper - Concussion
Like other WRs before him, Cooper needs to pass protocol before Sunday. If he plays, there’s a 36% average drop-off in production with an 8% reinjury risk. He’ll be extremely volatile even if he plays.
Chris Olave - Illness
Olave has the flu and is going to attempt to play. WRs who play through an illness give quite the mixed bag. Depending on how hydrated and symptomatic he still is, Olave’s ceiling is in question. In addition to Derek Carr’s status being up in the air, Olave has the largest range of outcomes amongst top WRs on this slate. Cash game players, be aware.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert - Forearm
Expect Goedert to be close to 100% but on somewhat of a snap count as he reacclimates himself. There’s a chance his snaps will be limited to passing-downs which, for fantasy purposes, isn’t so bad.
Taysom Hill - Foot/Hand
At this point, Hill is not trending in the right direction. However, given his upside at the tight end position, make sure you double and triple-check his final status here Sunday morning.
Good luck!
