Week 11 Fantasy Big Board: Rest-of-Season Trade Value


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Week 11 Fantasy Big Board: Rest-of-Season Trade Value

Attention all fantasy football trade addicts: this article is for you. Here, I’ll be re-ranking the top 50 most valuable players each week, with PPR scoring in mind. You can use these rankings and writeups to make informed roster and trade decisions heading into Week 10.

These are my personal rankings, which will often differ (sometimes significantly) from consensus. If I have a player ranked higher than you believe most in your league would, I’d recommend buying that player at market price – not starting negotiations where I have the player ranked.

With the trade deadline in most leagues rapidly approaching, now is the time to make a move that will either secure your spot in the playoffs or increase your team’s ceiling during those crucial Weeks 15-17. There was a ton of fluidity in the rankings once again this week, including in a few spots where I’ve moved to swiftly correct previously mistaken reads.

As always, you’ll find the player’s positive or negative movement from the week before in parentheses.

1. Christian McCaffrey

RB1, SF (0)

Though his touchdown streak snapped on Sunday despite Kyle Shanahan's best efforts, McCaffrey's usage is still elite. His 20.2% target share leads all RBs over the past month, while his 20.3 XFP/G ranks 2nd behind only Jahmyr Gibbs.

2. Austin Ekeler

RB2, LAC (0)

Over his past four games, Ekeler has averaged a 15.7% target share (RB4) and has been the only Chargers RB to log a red zone carry. He faces the Raiders (4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs), Bills (9th-most), and Broncos (most) in the fantasy playoffs.

3. Ja'Marr Chase

WR1, CIN (0)

Chase was a game-time decision due to his back injury in Week 10 and did not command as many targets as usual, but still managed to make his volume count. He led all WRs in XFP/G (21.0) before this injury, so I'd expect him to get fully back on track after this short week.

4. A.J. Brown

WR2, PHI (0)

Brown leads all WRs in air yards share (49.3%) and air yards per game (136.7). He just lost some target competition in Dallas Goedert. He faces the Seahawks (7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs) and Cardinals (12th-most, and 3rd-most to outside WRs) in the fantasy playoffs.

5. Tyreek Hill

WR3, MIA (0)

There's little daylight between Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, and A.J. Brown aside from their remaining schedules. In the fantasy playoffs, Hill faces the Jets (fewest schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs), Cowboys (4th-fewest), and Ravens (10th-fewest). He still has blow-up potential in all of those spots, but I'll slightly prefer Chase and Brown (who are seeing similar usage and are capable of similar output on similarly explosive offenses) for that reason.

6. CeeDee Lamb

WR4, DAL (+7)

After the Cowboys' Week 7 bye, their pass rate on 1st down grew from 45.0% (29th) to 64.3% (4th). Lamb's target share over those splits has gone from 21.5% (WR27) to 35.2% (WR1). If the Cowboys continue doing what's clearly working, Lamb should be a high-end WR1 for the rest of the year.

7. Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR5, DET (0)

St. Brown is averaging 102.6 receiving YPG (WR5). He and Jared Goff have a reliable connection that has led to St. Brown's 86.9% catchable target rate, the 5th-highest among qualifying WRs. Only CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Garrett Wilson have commanded more XFP/G than St. Brown over the past month.

8. Travis Kelce

TE1, KC (-2)

The Chiefs seemed uninterested in using Kelce in Europe, with the star TE regressing to a 67.6% route share (lowest since Week 6) and seeing only four targets for negative five air yards. This was likely the result of a conservative game plan in which the Chiefs nursed a lead in the second half, but as noted with Mahomes below, Kansas City’s dominant defense is a serious problem for fantasy managers this year. Case in point: T.J. Hockenson is now averaging more XFP/G than Kelce this year.

9. Justin Jefferson

WR6, MIN (0)

The Vikings plan to ramp up Jefferson in practice this week, signaling a potentially imminent return. Joshua Dobbs has continued playing well as the Vikings have maintained a 67.9% neutral-situation pass rate (5th-highest) in his two games. That suggests Jefferson may not end up too far off his 21.0 XFP/G (WR1) from earlier in the year.

10. Keenan Allen

WR7, LAC (0)

Allen continues to see incredible volume as the sole reliable WR remaining in the Chargers' offense. He's commanded a 40.9% first-read target share (WR3) over the past month, so we can't be too surprised when he goes off for over 40 fantasy points. He's now the only WR to have done so multiple times this season.

11. Jonathan Taylor

RB3, IND (+1)

Over his past two games, Taylor has handled 73.2% of his team's rush attempts (RB3). He ceded only one touch to Zack Moss in Week 10, suggesting Taylor's backfield takeover is finally complete. He doesn't have the best remaining schedule aside from facing the Raiders in Week 17 (4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs), but combining Taylor's opportunity share on the ground with his surprisingly strong 55.4% route share (RB7) over the past four games means few RBs can measure up to his usage.

12. Stefon Diggs

WR8, BUF (-4)

Diggs' usage has faltered to just 9.6 XFP/G over his last two outings, commanding below a 20% target share in each of them. Since Dalton Kincaid became a full-time player after the Dawson Knox injury, Diggs' first-read target share has fallen from 41.3% (WR3) to 31.1% (WR12). His aDOT has been cut nearly in half from 12.3 to 6.3. I'd be more concerned about this trend if the Bills did not just fire OC Ken Dorsey, but it's worth paying attention to whether Diggs returns to more frequent downfield usage under Joe Brady.

13. Travis Etienne Jr.

RB4, JAC (-2)

Though he's performed very well in fantasy football of late, Etienne's total opportunity (14.6 XFP/G, RB14) has been fairly average over the past month, in line with players like Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, and even Najee Harris. However, Etienne isn't in any danger of losing his workload, with Tank Bigsby looking as terrible as humanly possible at every opportunity, so I want to avoid overreacting too much to a poor performance against a tough 49ers defense.

14. Josh Jacobs

RB5, LV (0)

Jacobs was back to underperforming his excellent volume in Week 10, this time scoring only 13.7 fantasy points despite commanding 84.4% of the team's rush attempts (RB3) and 32.8% of the team's total XFP (RB2). Unlike the Cowboys with Tony Pollard, the Raiders and their 45.2% neutral-situation run rate (7th) seem committed to running their offense through Jacobs. Therefore, I'll keep the TD regression bit going with him for the foreseeable future.

15. Breece Hall

RB6, NYJ (+2)

49.7% of Hall's rushing yards have come on explosive plays of 15 or more yards, by far the most among RBs with at least 50 carries. 74.1% of Hall's rushing yards have come after contact (RB7). Despite all of his hard work, Hall has received no rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line this year (the Jets as a team only have two). In other words, Hall is playing exceptionally well but will likely continue to be held back by the Jets' offense. On the bright side, the Jets just released Michael Carter, opening up an additional ~25% route share for Hall to potentially take over.

16. Davante Adams

WR9, LV (-1)

Adams boasts a 43.5% first-read target share (would rank WR1 this season) and 18.6 XFP/G (WR6) in Aidan O'Connell's starts. None of Jakobi Meyers' volume or production this year has come from O'Connell, as he's averaged just a 16.1% first-read target share and 7.6 FPG in those games. The Raiders' schedule is now softening, with three of their next four matchups against teams who rank top-10 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs. Hold the faith in Adams.

17. Alvin Kamara

RB7, NO (-1)

Kamara remained involved via the passing game despite the Saints facing a negative game script for much of Week 10, so it's difficult to gauge where this three-way rushing split between Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill would have stood in a more normal game. There are certainly perks to being game script-proof, but of potentially bigger concern is Derek Carr's concussion and shoulder re-injury that could potentially cause him to miss time after the bye.

18. Rachaad White

RB8, TB (+32)

White's usage continues to be elite, as his 18.3 XFP/G now ranks 5th among RBs over the past month. Though White isn't a great runner between the tackles, he has received all but one of the Buccaneers' rush attempts inside the 10-yard line this year. Even if he doesn't score, he gets it done in the receiving game (61.7% route share, RB4) and showcases some elusiveness in space (10.6 YAC/R, RB5). White recently has both the workload and the fantasy output of a bonafide RB1, and it's hard not to rank him accordingly.

19. Derrick Henry

RB9, TEN (-1)

Will Levis did not deliver the positive game script Henry's managers had hoped for, as the King was out-snapped once again by Tyjae Spears due to the Titans playing from behind the entire 2nd half. It's still fair to call Henry a low-end RB1 based on his usage over the past month (14.7 XFP/G, RB13), and the Titans' schedule still looks fairly manageable, but the Levis-related upside I'd envisioned has not materialized.

20. D'Andre Swift

RB10, PHI (+2)

Swift has run a bit cold in the touchdown column over the past month, having punched in only one score on his eight attempts inside the 10-yard line. He has underperformed his XFP by -2.1 FPG in that timeframe.

21. Kenneth Walker III

RB11, SEA (+28)

I've been entirely wrong about Walker's usage over the past two weeks, as he just commanded 73.1% of the team's carries (RB4) in Week 10 after being outsnapped by Zach Charbonnet 58-46 over the previous two weeks. The team was likely just managing Walker's workload in Week 8 after he'd missed two days of practice with a calf injury and then decided to give Charbonnet more work in a blowout negative game script in Week 9. That means Walker can probably continue to be counted on as an RB1 in neutral and positive game scripts, though a glance at their remaining schedule (@ LA, vs. SF, @ DAL, @ SF, vs. PHI) suggests there is no guarantee they see many of those until facing the Titans and Steelers in the fantasy playoffs.

22. Cooper Kupp

WR10, LAR (+6)

Kupp's usage with Matthew Stafford (16.2 XFP/G) has been nearly identical to Puka Nacua's, so they remain ranked back-to-back. All of the Rams' remaining opponents, aside from the Commanders have been stronger against receivers lined up out wide than against the slot, so that could be a reason to lean a little more toward Kupp (47.9% slot rate).

23. Puka Nacua

WR11, LAR (+4)

Little has changed for the Rams' WR duo over the bye. Matthew Stafford is expected back this week, but he could potentially be less effective as a passer, depending on how well he's able to grip the ball. Nacua's workload has not been decent but not outstanding in games with Stafford and Kupp healthy (16.4 XFP/G, would rank WR14).

24. Chris Olave

WR12, NO (0)

Eight of Olave's nine targets and 79 of his 94 receiving yards came from Jameis Winston in less than two quarters. Olave ranks 2nd behind A.J. Brown in air yards per game (130.5). There's still a chance Carr's re-injured shoulder holds him out past the bye, and even if not, Michael Thomas seems likely to miss multiple games, which could lead to more shallow and intermediate usage for Olave. Things might finally be looking up.

25. Jaylen Waddle

WR13, MIA (+4)

It sounds like Waddle is feeling better after injuring his knee in Germany, so he can be expected to play in Week 11. He faces the same difficult fantasy playoff schedule as Tyreek Hill (three bottom-10 matchups), but he could certainly help your fantasy team in the near term. He averaged 18.6 XFP/G (WR9) over his last four games before playing injured in Week 9.

26. Adam Thielen

WR14, CAR (-7)

Thielen has underwhelmed in two consecutive bottom-five matchups for slot WRs, but things should get slightly easier for him starting this week against the Cowboys, who are merely a bottom-10 matchup. Thielen still led the Panthers in target share during each of his two "down" games and is averaging a healthy 16.6 XFP/G (WR13) over his last four.

27. Bijan Robinson

RB12, ATL (+16)

Arthur Smith finally capitulated to toxic groupthink and gave Bijan Robinson both of the Falcons' carries inside the 10-yard line this week. Robinson also somehow ran a route on 81.5% of the Falcons' dropbacks, the 2nd-highest single-game mark by any RB this season. That frustratingly materialized into only two targets, as Taylor Heinicke would rather do literally anything else other than check down. Heinicke has done so at just a 2.7% rate, the lowest of any QB with 50+ dropbacks this season. Fantasy Points injury expert Edwin Porras expects Heinicke back from his hamstring injury after the Falcons' bye in Week 12, which might be a downgrade for Robinson given what I've outlined above. Regardless, Robinson's overall outlook is a bit rosier after returning to a clear lead role in the backfield.

28. De'Von Achane

RB13, MIA (-2)

Achane has been activated from IR and could return this week. Raheem Mostert hasn't done much of late that should prevent Achane from picking up where he left off in taking over this backfield, having run a route on 52.4% of the team's dropbacks and received five of the backfield's seven opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his last two games. He's also the second-fastest player in one of the best-designed run games in the league, who has averaged 25.7 FPG this year (RB1), so he has that going for him as well.

29. Joe Mixon

RB14, CIN (-8)

While Mixon should theoretically be in a fantasy-friendly situation (15.2 XFP/G over the past month, RB10), the Bengals' pass-heavy tendencies have hurt him, especially inside the red zone. Mixon's team ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone pass rate (64.1%), and they've skewed even more toward the pass (67.9%) there since Burrow returned healthy from the bye.

30. Jalen Hurts

QB1, PHI (+1)

Hurts has scored 20.0 or more fantasy points in each of his past eight games and is averaging a league-leading 8.3 XFP/G from rushing. His 6.0 TDs on QB sneaks this season is 4.0 more than any other signal-caller.

31. Josh Allen

QB2, BUF (+2)

Allen's rushing was on an upward trajectory before Week 10, having averaged only 3.2 rushing attempts per game from Weeks 2-6 but at least 7.0 attempts in every game from Weeks 7-9. The Bills firing OC Ken Dorsey reeks of desperation to fix a problem that may not actually exist (the offense ranks 3rd in EPA/play), so expecting Joe Brady to further elevate Allen's fantasy football output seems foolish.

32. Joe Burrow

QB3, CIN (0)

Since his Week 7 bye, Burrow is averaging 5.3 rushing attempts, 326.0 passing YPG, and 23.9 FPG (would rank QB3 this season). His calf injury was visibly affecting him up until then, with his YPA jumping from 5.3 to 8.4 and his CPOE from -3.0% (QB30) to +7.4% (QB7) post-bye. Burrow even managed a solid showing in Week 10 despite Ja'Marr Chase nursing a back injury and Tee Higgins missing yet another game. This week's Thursday night contest against the Ravens is the only difficult defense the Bengals face until their Week 17 showdown with the Chiefs.

33. Jahmyr Gibbs

RB15, DET (+9)

As I'd sniffed out, Gibbs took the lead over Montgomery in the Lions' backfield with both players healthy, logging 57.8% of the snaps and running a route on 51.5% of team dropbacks (RB9) to Montgomery's 18.2%. More surprisingly, the Lions did not immediately sub out Gibbs every time they entered the red zone, including when Montgomery himself waved Gibbs back onto the field after his long run set up his first TD of the day. Gibbs just about matched his 15.4% target share from the past month, so all the pieces are in place for him to remain a high-end RB2 at worst (and an RB1 at best) down the stretch, while Montgomery will mostly remain a TD-dependent option.

34. Saquon Barkley

RB16, NYG (-9)

As I'd feared, the Giants quickly fell out of the game against the Cowboys, leading to only 13 rushing attempts and 3 targets for Barkley before he mostly sat out the 4th quarter. Blowouts like this could become commonplace as the Giants circle the drain, with the team entering Week 11 as 10-point underdogs to the Commanders. Barkley is a sell-low candidate.

35. T.J. Hockenson

TE2, MIN (+6)

After being peppered with 15 targets (44.4% target share) on a day he had supposedly entered as limited with a rib injury, Hockenson is now averaging more XPF/G (16.6) than Travis Kelce (16.0). Hockenson's inefficiency and limitations after the catch (which, in fairness, he has improved upon this year) don't matter at all if Joshua Dobbs will continue feeding him this type of volume. Of course, Justin Jefferson's imminent return will likely put a small damper on that, but Hockenson is now clearly in a tier of his own at TE2 and offers a serious weekly advantage.

36. Garrett Wilson

WR15, NYJ (+1)

Wilson's 42.5% first-read target share leads the NFL, and his 22.8 XFP/G over his last four games ranks behind only CeeDee Lamb. He's barely managed fringe-WR1 production thanks to the Zach Wilson-sized albatross around his neck, but I'll continue ranking him aggressively on the off-chance he positively regresses (and I do mean the off-chance).

37. DeVonta Smith

WR16, PHI (-3)

Smith averaged a 25.3% target share (would rank WR17 this year) and 15.8 FPG (WR13) in five games without Dallas Goedert last year. As Goedert is an IR candidate, I'm treating Smith as a high-end WR2 for the next month until proven otherwise.

38. Michael Pittman Jr.

WR17, IND (-3)

Pittman has averaged 17.0 FPG (would rank WR12) and a 35.4% first-read target share (WR8) in Gardner Minshew's starts this season. He's been incredibly consistent in fantasy football and only stands to further benefit if Josh Downs continues to struggle with his knee injury.

39. Diontae Johnson

WR18, PIT (-19)

The Steelers committed to a run-heavy gameplan against the Packers, passing only 39.3% of the time on first downs (7th-fewest). This could often be their game plan going forward, as their two games against the Bengals are the only remaining spots where they might be forced to get aggressive. Johnson appeared on a couple of deep shots early and mostly disappeared for the rest of the day.

40. Javonte Williams

RB17, DEN (+4)

Over his last three games, Williams has never dropped below a 50% snap share nor a 55% team rush attempt share. What's made the biggest difference has been his improved red zone usage — he's played on 24 of the team's 32 red zone snaps over the past two games compared to just 11 of 54 over his first six games. Williams is in solid RB2 territory if this usage holds.

41. Justin Herbert

QB4, LAC (-2)

In stark contrast to the Chiefs, the Chargers defense (0.04 EPA/play allowed, 5th-worst) should theoretically force more shootouts, a thesis that came true in Week 10. Stop me if you've heard this before, but Herbert has lost a large portion of his weapons this year (Mike Williams and Josh Palmer) while Keenan Allen played much of Week 10 through a shoulder injury. Herbert has produced despite the adversity, but the relatively difficult remaining schedule and the lack of weapons make it tough to include him within the top tier at QB.

42. Kyren Williams

RB18, LAR (+3)

Sean McVay expects Matthew Stafford back this week, and Williams back in Week 12, which means his buy window is likely closing. He was averaging 17.1 XFP/G (RB7) before his injury.

43. Mike Evans

WR19, TB (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Excluding one game in which Mike Evans left early with an injury, he ranks (on a per-game basis) 8th in air yards (119.0), 17th in targets (8.1), 11th in receiving yards (87.1), 14th in XFP/G (16.5), and 9th in FPG (18.2).

44. Dak Prescott

QB5, DAL (+Previously Outside Top-50)

The Cowboys have been very pass-first since their bye, averaging a +11.7% PROE over the past three games (would rank 1st over the full season) compared to a -1.2% PROE (would rank 23rd) beforehand. They've ranked 4th in 1st Down pass rate (64.3%) compared to 28th (45.0%) through the first six games. And it has mostly worked — Prescott has averaged 9.8 YPA, 360.7 passing YPG, and 32.1 FPG. The team has outscored their opponents by a margin of 115-65 and was a few final-drive penalties against the Eagles away from going 3-0. Mike McCarthy absolutely loves that his offense is outperforming Kellen Moore's from last year, so the pass-heavy tendencies could be here to stay.

45. Aaron Jones

RB19, GB (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Though Jones received only three of the Packers' five red zone carries in Week 10, his usage since his return (15.2 XFP/G, RB10) suggests he should be ranked inside the top 50. Even if there aren't as many goal-line opportunities as we'd like on a Jordan Love-led offense, Jones' 15.1% target share over the last four games (RB7) should keep him afloat.

46. Brandon Aiyuk

WR20, SF (0)

Aiyuk was used sparingly against a Jaguars' defense that has played the 4th-most zone of any team in the league, coverage that Deebo Samuel has historically been utilized more against. Every one of the 49ers' remaining opponents aside from the Ravens in Week 16 rank in the top half of schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs, so Aiyuk should be poised for a bounce-back.

47. Tee Higgins

WR21, CIN (-17)

Higgins was again inactive last week and will miss Thursday Night Football due to his hamstring injury. He could return as soon as Week 12, but will likely be limited just as he's been for what has felt like every game this season.

48. Patrick Mahomes II

QB6, KC (-10)

The Chiefs have allowed only 15.9 points per game (3rd-fewest) and -.0.098 EPA/play (4th-fewest) to their opponents. As a consequence, only 20.2% of Mahomes' dropbacks have occurred while trailing. 77.8% of the Chiefs' games have gone under their Vegas total, as there are few opponents capable of pushing the issue. (Only the Raiders and Giants have seen their games go under more often). The Eagles may fare better than the Dolphins, but it's tough to envision Mahomes lighting up the fantasy scoreboard in easy-on-paper matchups against teams like the Raiders (twice), Packers, and Patriots. C.J. Stroud (20.3 FPG) and Dak Prescott (20.5 FPG) are now narrowly outscoring Mahomes (20.2 FPG) on the season.

49. Tony Pollard

RB20, DAL (-26)

The Cowboys have discovered a new offensive identity, ranking 4th in 1st Down pass rate (64.3%) since the bye compared to 28th (45.0%) through the first six games. Unsurprisingly, Pollard's XFP/G has dropped from 19.3 (RB6) to 13.1 (RB20) over those splits. If we believe the Cowboys will ride this passing game until the wheels fall off (I do), Pollard has to be ranked significantly lower than his season-long usage would normally imply. It doesn't help that he's been woefully inefficient and seemingly incapable of scoring at the goal line.

50. Nathaniel Dell

WR22, HOU (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Dell's usage has exploded to the tune of a 40.0% first-read target share resulting in 24.3 FPG with Nico Collins missing time over the last two games. C.J. Stroud (who narrowly misses this list) looks like a star in the making, but 2022's most productive WR in the entire FBS has stepped up admirably as well. Collins' and Dell's usage in games they've both been healthy has been middling, but Dell's breakout has coincided with a time when rookie WRs naturally tend to start producing more, so there's a real chance he continues producing. It's hard to balance upside and median outcome in these rankings, but I wanted to include someone of this archetype over the Amari Coopers of the world. Your roster size, depth, and record should determine your risk tolerance.

Just outside the top-50

Lamar Jackson, David Montgomery, Marquise Brown, C.J. Stroud, Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, James Conner, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Chris Godwin, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers

Ryan is a young marketing professional who takes a data-based approach to every one of his interests. He uses the skills gained from his economics degree and liberal arts education to weave and contextualize the stories the numbers indicate. At Fantasy Points, Ryan hopes to play a part in pushing analysis in the fantasy football industry forward.