Are you ready for some (preseason DFS) football?! It’s here, and it’s glorious. The Hall of Fame Game is Thursday, and it kicks off one of my favorite times of the year — Preseason DFS Season.
General Preseason Showdown Strategy
The overarching key is to do your best to highlight which players will be playing the most snaps. This can be gleaned by researching depth chart scarcity, coachspeak/press conferences, injury news, or beat reports.
The only position you can roster that will score fantasy points for the entire game is DST. With all other position players having their playing time limited to anywhere from a series to a half, DST becomes a key cog in roster construction. Despite the fact DSTs don’t normally end up as the highest-scoring position on a normal slate, they can on a preseason slate. The ability for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends to outscore DSTs is neutralized in preseason by playing only a portion of the game. Don’t be afraid to roster both DSTs in a lineup or in the captain spot — in fact, it’s encouraged.
Don’t worry about negative correlation in preseason. QB v. opposing defense, too many WRs from the same team, or two running backs from the same team don’t carry the negative impact they would in the regular season. Often, they won’t eat into each other’s production because they won’t be on the field at the same time, anyway.
The one correlation that does matter is trying to pinpoint which quarterbacks will be paired up with which skill players. It’s often arbitrary and unpredictable, but sometimes an offensive unit will play all its snaps together. That increases your ceiling by having the QB in the same lineup as the RB/WR/TE he has the potential to throw touchdown passes to.
Prioritize athletic pass-catchers. Since playing time is limited, target positions and players that can hit a ceiling in one or two plays. This is usually going to be wide receivers. Though running backs are in play, it’s unlikely you get a high-volume game where a runner grinds out the 100-yard bonus on 20 carries. When you do roster running backs and tight ends, it’s important to roster those with pass-catching roles.
Hall of Fame Game Strategy
There is really no easy way to go about determining which players will be on the field for the Hall of Fame Game. There exists a normal pattern of coaching behavior for the preseason in terms of playing time, but it’s sort of thrown out the window for this first game because it’s an extra game added on top of the usual preseason schedule. The Jets and Browns will play four, instead of three, exhibition games before the regular season.
Over the past week or so, I’ve prepared for this slate by reading beat-writer columns, combing Twitter for beat-writer tweets and replies, and also listening to Jets/Browns podcasts. As with any DFS slate, we’ll need a little luck, but I do think knowing who has been performing well in camp, who the coaches are fond of or may want to see more of, and who has been banged up and may not play is a pretty big advantage.
Defense/Special Teams
As I mentioned above, it can’t be overstated how important it is to prioritize defenses in your lineups for the showdown slates in preseason. They are the only two buttons you can click in which you are guaranteed they’ll be on the field for the entire game. I’ll have a large percentage of my lineups including both defenses, and I’ll also be using them in the captain spot.
Browns Quarterbacks
Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Kellen Mond
DTR has been dubbed by Browns coaches to be playing “a lot.” I assume that he plays at least the entire second half. That leaves a half for Kellen Mond. It could work out that DTR plays more than two quarters though, but the most likely scenario is both get a half. Both can run the football which is an excellent bonus, especially for preseason when points are at a premium.
Browns Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Daylen Baldwin and Cedric Tillman
OC Alex Van Pelt specifically singled out Baldwin and Tillman as the receivers he feels have had the best camp. Tillman, a rookie out of Tennessee, is fighting for a starting spot and can really blow the top off a defense. I like him a lot, since one play can land him in the optimal lineup. Van Pelt said Baldwin can play all over the field, so we may see him get extended snaps due to his versatility at different WR positions. DTR and Tillman were high school teammates, but it looks like he may play with Mond more in the first half. Based on his place on the depth chart, Baldwin should play with DTR.
Jaelen Darden
Hasn’t been practicing. He very well may play in the Hall of Fame Game because he's trying to earn a spot, but it’s worth noting that he’s been hobbled. Has flashed in camp when healthy.
Anthony Schwartz
The fastest man alive, but has also been banged up. He should play, and like Tillman, is a deep threat. He hasn’t reached his potential and has disappointed. He’s very raw as a receiver, with his route-running and tracking of the ball both lacking. Should see snaps, though, as he’s fighting for his life in the NFL at the moment.
David Bell and Jakeem Grant
Bell should work with Mond early, but could get time with DTR. Bell is a possession-type outside receiver out of Purdue, where he was a reliable volume target who caught 8-10 balls a game. From what I’ve seen, he’s being moved around the formation and running a ton of quick crossing and out routes. That could be beneficial in a game like this, where inexperienced quarterbacks are trying to get their feet wet. Grant is a veteran, so he may be pulled quick, but he’s a shifty special teams type of guy who will probably be on the field early in the game.
Mike Harley/Ra’Shaun Henry/Austin Watkins
These three should close out the game in the last quarter with Thompson-Robinson. Harley is a really skilled receiver out of Miami who will probably be the best player on the field late in the game. He’s my favorite of the three. He had some off-field stuff going on while with the Hurricanes, which is why he’s not a household name. He had a concussion last week, so make sure he’s playing before clicking. Henry and Watkins are worth darts if you’re making a bunch of lineups.
Browns Tight Ends
David Njoku won’t play much, if at all, and Jordan Akins has been injured. I wouldn’t be clicking those two for Thursday.
Harrison Bryant/Zaire Mitchell-Paden/Thomas Greaney
Because the tight end spot isn’t required on showdown, I’m not sure any of these three will be high priorities for my player pool. Bryant is someone who had hype early in his career and has been just OK as a receiver. Because the Browns know what they have in him, I don’t know how much he’ll be playing. He was also working off to the side with Darden for much of this week’s practices. Mitchell-Paden played with the Browns last year and only caught one pass during the preseason — I’m not too excited about him. Greaney is a good receiving tight end who caught 50 balls at Albany last year. There have been highlights going around of him and DTR connecting in camp.
Browns Running Backs
John Kelly and Hasaan Hall
I think these two will get the most reps in this game. Kelly has been around for a few seasons and always seems to be a battering ram for teams in the preseason. Hall is an UDFA from Georgia Tech and Louisville who is very dynamic. The Browns reportedly really like him, and camp buzz says he has a chance to beat out Demetric Felton. These two should be the guys banging it into the line of scrimmage for most of the game.
Demetric Felton and Nate McCrary
Felton is a guy who has seen some regular season run, mostly as a gadget/receiving back. The camp buzz is that he’s on the roster bubble and has to show out not to be cut, with Hall shining in camp. He could see a good amount of first-half run with Mond. McCrary will be a second-half player. He had some success with the Ravens, racking up 200 yards over the last two preseasons.
Jerome Ford
Pretty much locked into the RB2 role. May see a series and has the breakaway ability to hit a home-run play that catapults him into the optimal lineup, but he’s not going to grind out carries across multiple quarters like is expected from Kelly and Hall.
Browns Kicker
Cade York
The Hall of Fame Game is usually a complete stinker regarding offensive production. There are vanilla schemes and scrub players. A field goal or two could absolutely be all York needs to land in the optimal lineup.
Jets Quarterbacks
Zach Wilson
Robert Saleh has been pretty mum on the amount of playing time that will be allotted to his players on Thursday, but one thing we know is that Wilson will play. Whether that is a series or more probably depends on how well he plays. If Wilson drives the offense down for a touchdown or field goal, that will probably be his only series. If he goes three and out, he may return in for a second. Either way, Wilson playing against second and third-teamers could have a successful drive that results in a touchdown.
Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler
My guess is that Boyle finishes the first half after Wilson exits, and Streveler plays the second half. Boyle is a vet and has had solid preseason games in the past. Streveler can run the rock, and in limited action, tacking on 30-40 yards rushing is huge. They are both solidly in play for this slate.
Jets Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jason Brownlee/Irv Charles/Xavier Gipson
Every Jets coach and/or beat writer who was asked to name a standout from camp so far said Brownlee is playing well and making plays. I expect the Jets to get a good look at him in this game. Right behind Brownlee in terms of hype and credit from people around camp are Gipson and Charles. The Jets have a good amount of vets on the 2-deep, so I wouldn’t expect much out of them if they play at all. I expect Brownlee, Charles, and Gipson to play with Wilson and Boyle.
Alex Erickson
Erickson has been around the block, starting his career with some success with the Bengals, especially in the preseason a few years ago, but he’s also gotten some regular season run. I could see him playing early on with the receivers above, or in the second half with Streveler.
Malik Taylor/Jerome Kapp/TJ Luther
These three will probably run with Streveler in the second half. Kapp is probably my favorite of the three. He’s a Kutztown legend who has been working tirelessly in camp — the stereotypical “last one off the field hours after practice is over” type of guy. There really isn’t much to distinguish these three, so rotating them through with Streveler is probably the play.
Jets Tight Ends
Jeremy Ruckert
Ruckert would be my pick for the tight end to do the most damage. He has a lot to prove after a ho-hum rookie campaign. I doubt Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah get much time, if any, as vets. Ruckert is reportedly making a lot of noise in camp, which has included some fist fights.
Zach Kuntz
Athletic, tall pass-catcher. Should get plenty of run in the middle of the game with Boyle and possibly Streveler. If tight end was a mandatory click, he’d be in more of my lineups, but as is will probably be a dart here or there.
Kenny Yeboah and EJ Jenkins
I feel like the ship has sailed for Yeboah. He’s probably getting cut and, because of that, will probably be sent out to bang around a lot in the second half. I’m probably not clicking Jenkins based on the format.
Jets Running Backs
Israel Abanikanda
Abanikanda would be my pick to get the most run in the game. A successful college player, Abanikanda had a monster season at Pitt last year. I personally like Abanikanda because he’s explosive. He’s a great athlete who can turn the corner or hit a hole and take it to the house. When you’re only getting a few snaps in a game, that’s the type of player that is needed to take down a slate.
Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight
The Jets want to sign Dalvin Cook and potentially deal Carter. While I don’t expect the first-team type players to get a lot of snaps, Carter could have a mini-audition for the Browns, who are looking for some added RB depth, on the first drive. Knight probably enters the game fairly early, but doesn’t play a ton because the Jets know what they have in him.
Damarea Crockett and Travis Dye
Crockett was just signed, and Dye is nine months removed from getting carted off the field at USC. I expect them both to enter the game at some point, but it could just be a clock-killing series at the end of the game.
Jets Kicker
Greg Zuerlein
As I said with York, kickers get a bit more of a boost because they don’t share time, and a field goal or two probably puts them in the top 10 of scoring on the slate. There is always a chance that the coaches try weird stuff like going for two or converting on fourth down just to test things out, but nonetheless, kickers are in play.
