Five Veteran Values in Early Underdog Drafts

It’s the middle of March. We’re in the throes of free agency, but we’re still just four weeks removed from the Super Bowl and six weeks away from the NFL Draft. For many, this is a known insufferable purgatory for football fans. But, for the true degenerates among us, this is peak best ball season.

Using ADP from Underdog Fantasy, here are the top-5 players you shouldn’t leave your draft without.

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Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 3.07, TE2

How did Mark Andrews average just 12.8 expected fantasy points (XFP) per game (down from 16.0 in 2021) despite hitting a new career-high and leading the position in target share (29%)? It’s all about the routes.

Andrews ran the most routes (623) of any tight end in 2021, when he led the position in fantasy points scored. But he hasn’t surpassed 434 routes (10th among tight ends in 2022) in any other season of his career. Efficiency is not and has never been Andrews’ issue.

Over the last four seasons, Travis Kelce has 1,347 more receiving yards than Andrews. But if Andrews had run as many routes as Kelce, he would have compiled 41 more yards than Kelce did. There is no meaningful difference in usage – Andrews actually led the position in route share (83.4%), above Kelce’s 79.8% – this is entirely about team passing volume.

Baltimore ranks dead-last in pass rate since 2019 (47%). They averaged only 28.7 pass attempts per game last year, down from 35.9 in their outlier-like 2021 season. 2021 was the only season within our sample in which Baltimore’s defense did not rank top-3 in points allowed… they ranked 14th-worst.

Luckily for Andrews, a change in offensive philosophy seems almost certain, following the decision to replace OC Greg Roman with Todd Monken. Monken’s teams, you may remember, have finished top-4 in pass attempts and passing yards in 2 of his 4 seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator (let’s forget the time that Freddie Kitchens held the Browns’ offense hostage). And the last time Monken called plays in the NFL (2018), career journeymen Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston combined for 320.3 passing yards per game, which stands as the 4th-most in NFL history.

Thanks to the non-exclusive franchise tag, it is overwhelmingly likely that Lamar Jackson will return to Baltimore in 2023, given that few teams seem interested in forfeiting multiple Round 1 draft picks for the privilege of signing him. There are two scenarios where Lamar leaves:

1. The Ravens trade him for a package that would include a competent quarterback.
2. Or, the Ravens receive the aforementioned two first-round selections, which would theoretically give them the necessary ammunition to move up and select a promising rookie.

Either scenario could even result in the team acquiring a more traditional pocket passer, which would (theoretically) lead to an even higher pass rate.

Though the shift from former Roman to Monken does not guarantee an increase in pass volume, the chances of it happening are higher now than last year. It is the single thing standing in the way of Andrews putting up another TE1 overall season. Yet, you can now draft Andrews almost a full round later compared to a year ago.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

ADP: 5.07, WR30

Last season, the Atlanta Falcons averaged just 24.4 pass attempts per game – the fewest of any team in 17 years… aside from the 2022 Chicago Bears, who somehow threw even less.

We do not know who will be throwing Drake London the ball in 2023, but that’s true of a number of receivers, including those with a far more expensive price tag (hello, Davante Adams). Given Marcus Mariota’s league-worst off-target throw rate (20.3%) as well as Atlanta’s 2nd-most cap space and 8th overall draft pick, the Falcons are a near-guarantee to bring in a fresh arm.

HC Arthur Smith’s teams have always been near the bottom of the league in pass rate, with the notable exception being the 2021 Matt Ryan-led Falcons finishing eighth. I wouldn’t call this more than a glimmer of hope, but it is always possible that a QB upgrade will inspire Smith to join the modern age. At the very least, he won’t have a high bar to clear – Atlanta’s -11.2% pass rate over expectation (PROE) ranks 2nd-lowest in at least a decade.

I’m sick of speculating on pass rates, so I’ll move on by pointing out that London is a prime candidate for the sophomore surge. In short, wide receivers who hit certain yards per team attempt (YTMA) thresholds as rookies are much more likely than other receivers to outperform their ADP the following year. London’s 0.89 YTMA is on par with the rookie seasons of players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

London also led his rookie class in target share (29%) and targets per route run (0.27). And, for further perspective, the last rookie to beat 0.27 TPRR on at least 200 routes was Tyreek Hill back in 2016. Betting on one of the most prolific target-earners we’ve seen enter the league in years at a discounted price is a no-brainer.

If that isn’t compelling enough, London led all receivers in yards per route run (3.24, min. 25 targets) from Week 13 on. He was also targeted on a whopping 36% of his routes in that timeframe, which was also easily the most of any player with at least 25 targets. Humorously enough, Hill (29%) was second. I had no intention of comparing these two stylistically different players, but their efficiency metrics demand it. They also demand you draft London every time he falls to you in Round 5.

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 10.01, QB16

Yes, there is a real chance that Trey Lance does not start in Week 1 of 2023. He is not a selection for the faint of heart. (Pre-NFL Draft best ball is also not a game for the faint of heart, to be fair.)

With quarterback ADP skyrocketing this year, it is tempting to want to go bargain shopping. Lance is likely the final chance for a best-ball drafter to obtain difference-making fantasy production at the position.

When plotting quarterback ADP against rush attempts per game from the last two years, the trio of Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, and Lance sticks out as a second tier of habitual runners. All three have warts, but Lance’s allure is clear as the one who could both theoretically play an entire season and benefit from one of the best supporting casts and schemes in the league.

Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy are third and fourth, respectively, in EPA/play among all QBs with at least 100 plays since 2017. Don’t get too excited, though; they were 44th and 48th in air yards per attempt in 2022. They were also 31st and 33rd in completion percentage over expected; meaning, each was completing fewer passes than expected given the difficulty of their attempts. In other words, both players attempted short throws and did not make as many of them as they should have, but the 49ers’ offense was highly efficient regardless. Sounds like a pretty good system.

Purdy posted a 65.5 QBR in his five regular season games. Garoppolo has posted QBRs of 82.7, 60.8, 54.0, 53.3, and 54.4 in the seasons he played at least five games with San Francisco. These players are spitting images of each other statistically. The 49ers drafted Lance in hopes of getting more than this Garoppolo-level production. Why should that aspiration change just because there is a new, cheaper Jimmy G (Purdy)?

Regardless of Purdy’s UCL surgery being ominously delayed, Lance having the inside track to this starting job is the version of events that makes the least assumptions. Even if he is a bad passer, seven rushing attempts per game from the QB16 by ADP is something you want, particularly as part of a three-quarterback build in a tournament like The Big Board.

Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 6.07, WR32

Marquise Brown is currently being selected 30 picks behind teammate DeAndre Hopkins, even though Hopkins was targeted just six more times in the four games the two WRs played together last year.

Hopkins is currently the subject of trade rumors, and rightfully so, given the Cardinals should have little interest in carrying a $30.75 million cap hit for a 31-year-old who will be an unrestricted free agent after 2024. If he’s dealt, it’s worth remembering that Brown was top-eight at the position in FPG through the first six weeks of the season (without Hopkins and before getting injured).

Could a Cardinals offense without Kyler Murray for the first part of 2023 look different? Sure, but Brown has a habit of dominating targets and air yards within any offense he finds himself. He has led his team in air yards each of the last three years (despite quality target competition from Andrews and Hopkins) and has never been outside the top-25 at his position in target share since his second year in the league. Murray will play at some point this year, and we know Brown has top-12 upside whenever he does.

To put it another way, Brown’s ADP would immediately jump two rounds if Hopkins were traded. It would jump another two rounds if an optimistic report on Murray’s rehab were released. I will always draft a player with Brown’s track record of production and best ball-friendly downfield usage this early in the offseason when he has multiple routes to becoming significantly more valuable.

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 16.03, WR79

From Week 6 on, Rashid Shaheed was second among all wide receivers with 2.78 yards per route run (min. 100 routes). Being sandwiched between Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams as an undrafted rookie can’t be a bad thing. From Week 12 on, Shaheed gained 92 more yards than teammate Chris Olave, on only 11 additional routes. (Keep in mind, Olave is being drafted 14 rounds higher.)

Shaheed was not just a gadget player, as his 11.6 average depth of target will tell you (with only five of his targets coming on screens). Sure, Shaheed mostly found success against zone coverage (3.44 yards per route run) rather than against man (1.71), and the sample size of 34 targets is tiny. But his dynamism is undeniable — Shaheed’s 6.2 yards after the catch per reception was top-10 among receivers with 20 or more catches, and that figure held against both man (6.3 YAC/R) and zone (6.2).

Michael Thomas may not be going anywhere now that Derek Carr is in New Orleans, but Shaheed is the type of player capable of providing usable best-ball weeks, regardless. Three top-24 and five top-36 weekly finishes out of 12 active games are quite impressive for a player that was only targeted 34 times. For context, Shaheed’s 41.7% top-36 finish rate was better than players like JuJu Smith-Schuster (37.5%) and Gabriel Davis (40%) managed on much better offenses last year. Shaheed even led all wide receivers in percentage of plays to gain 30-plus, 40-plus, and 50-plus yards.

Shaheed didn’t quite have the massive spike weeks that Smith-Schuster or Davis had, but he does make sense as an arbitrage play on those types of inconsistent but high- (weekly) -ceiling “better in best ball” profiles. The opportunity cost of drafting Shaheed is practically nothing, while Davis and Smith-Schuster are both being drafted in the single-digit rounds despite having just as little job security. Smith-Schuster is an unrestricted free agent and therefore isn’t even tied to Patrick Mahomes anymore.

You probably shouldn’t expect a ton from Shaheed. He is likely just a cost-effective way of getting a few usable games and filling out a build that’s weak at the receiver position. But if anything clicks into place in Shaheed’s second year — whether related to the depth chart in front of him or the development of his own skills, as is often the case with second-year receivers — he can give you much more.