Welcome to this special edition Stat-Pack for the Wild Card round.
We’ll go game-by-game to uncover the most important stats for every player.
All of the stats in this article are from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
If you’re betting, in the player prop streets, or playing DFS – good luck this week!
Texans at Ravens (4:30pm ET, Saturday)
Houston
C.J. Stroud
1. Stroud finished a stellar rookie season as the QB9 by fantasy points per game (18.3).
1b. Stroud’s 273.9 passing yards per game ranks 3rd-most by a rookie QB all-time, and his 18.3 FPG ranks 5th-best.
2. Last week, Stroud became just the fourth rookie QB all-time to throw for 3 or more TDs in a playoff game. His 157.3 passer rating vs. the Browns was the best in a single playoff game mark in the Super Bowl era.
3. In his first career start, Stroud was held to 5.5 YPA on 44 pass attempts against Baltimore.
4. The Ravens are a chameleon scheme defensively, as DC Mike MacDonald deploys a number of different looks to confuse passers. To close out the season, Baltimore rolled out Cover-6 (zone) on a league-high 33% of their opponents' dropbacks in Weeks 16-18. In the season opener, the Ravens played Cover-6 on 25% of Stroud’s dropbacks.
4b. When facing Cover-6 zones, Stroud has completed 78% of his 49 throws for a stellar 9.0 YPA.
4c. Stroud’s 0.51 fantasy points per dropback vs. Cover-6 ranks 3rd-best.
Nico Collins
5. In his last six full games with Stroud under center, Nico Collins has gone off for: 7/65 receiving (vs. ARI), 7/104/1 (vs. JAX), 9/191/1 (vs. DEN), 7/80 (vs. TEN), 9/195/1 (vs. IND), and 6/96/1 (vs. CLE).
5b. Collins is averaging 20.1 Half-PPR points per game in this span. For reference, that production would have made him the WR1 in fantasy over CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill (19.9).
6. In five games without Tank Dell this season, Nico Collins has earned an unreal 40% of the Texans’ first-read targets, and 46% of the air yards.
6b. In nine starts with Dell active, Collins first-read target share dipped to 26% (Dell: 21%), and he saw 28% of the air yards (Dell: 32%).
Dalton Schultz
7. Last week, Dalton Schultz ran a route on just 50% of the Texans pass plays – which was his single lowest route share since Week 4.
7b. Schultz ran a route on 63% of the pass plays in Weeks 17-18.
7c. Even though he’s technically a part-time receiver, Schultz is second on the Texans in targets (13) over the last three weeks, ahead of Xavier Hutchinson (9), John Metchie (8), and Devin Singletary (7).
John Metchie / Xavier Hutchinson
9. Metchie (59% route share) was the Texans #2 receiver in the rotation last week over Robert Woods (36%). Xavier Hutchinson ran just five routes against the Browns. Noah Brown is on I.R.
Devin Singletary
10. Over the last two weeks, Singletary has handled 82% of the Texans snaps and 93% (37-of-40) of the RB carries.
11. Baltimore was not perfect on run defense to close out the season. Over the final 10 weeks, the Ravens allowed 4.34 YPC (8th-most) and a 49% success rate on those carries (15th). The Ravens gave up 2.05 yards before contact per carry in this span – which was 4th-most.
Baltimore
Lamar Jackson
1. Jackson closed out another excellent fantasy season as the QB4 (21.0 FPG).
1b. Lamar Jackson has finished as the QB8 or better in five straight seasons.
2. As a passer, Lamar averaged a career-high 8.0 passing yards per attempt, even with Mark Andrews (ankle) out for the final five games.
3. Over their last 10 games, the Texans have deployed two-high safety coverage on 62% of their opponents' dropbacks (3rd-highest rate).
3b. When facing two high safety coverages, Lamar Jackson has completed 66% of his throws for 7.0 YPA. Jackson’s average depth of target is 8.0 yards against two-high looks.
3c. By comparison, Jackson has ripped one-high coverages to the tune of a 68% completion rate for 8.7 YPA. His aDOT spikes to 9.7 yards downfield against one-high coverages.
Mark Andrews
4. After missing the last five weeks with an ankle injury, Andrews returned to full practice on Wednesday. In his nine healthy games, Andrews put up 12.1 Half-PPR points per game. That production would have made him the TE1 over Travis Kelce (11.7).
5. Andrews is absolutely crushing two-high safety coverages. In Weeks 2-10, Andrews led the Ravens in targets (29% share) and yards per route run (3.51) against two-high looks.
5b. By comparison, Andrews’ target share (19%) and efficiency (1.43 YPRR) dips against one-high safety looks.
Isaiah Likely
6. Over his last five starts without Mark Andrews (ankle), Likely leads the team in receiving (58.2 yards per game) despite seeing just 16% of the targets.
6b. Across Weeks 12-17, Zay Flowers (22.4%) earned the highest target share from Lamar Jackson. That was followed by Likely, then Rashod Bateman (15.4% TS) and Odell Beckham (13.5%).
6c. Houston allowed the 2nd-most receptions per game (6.1) to tight ends during the regular season, and the Texans were just ripped for 11/158 receiving (on 17 targets) by Browns TEs in the Wild Card round.
6d. Keep in mind, Likely is basically a big slot receiver. He aligns in the slot on 60% of his routes. Over their last 10 games, Houston has allowed 98.8 receiving yards per game to slot receivers (3rd-most in span – trailing only Philadelphia and Washington).
Zay Flowers / Odell Beckham
7. In nine games with Mark Andrews on the field, Zay Flowers is averaging just 8.2 Half-PPR points per contest.
7b. In seven games without Andrews active, Flowers’ production spiked to 13.5 FPG.
7c. This is the difference between Flowers scoring as fantasy’s WR14 (at 13.5 FPG) and WR53 (at 8.2 FPG).
8. Flowers averaged 7 targets per game without Andrews – and that dips to 6.3 T/G with Andrews.
9. Odell Beckham closed out the final three games of his season with just 4 receptions for 60 yards on seven targets. In Weeks 15-17, the Ravens went with a 3-man committee behind Flowers at receiver. Rashod Bateman (55% route share) and Nelson Agholor (51%) slightly ran more routes than OBJ (50%).
10. This is a great spot. Houston is allowing a league-high 2.32 yards per route run to outside receivers, and Flowers had 9/78 receiving (on 10 targets) in Week 1 when these two teams met.
Gus Edwards / Justice Hill
11. Edwards and Hill formed a compartmentalized backfield split in Weeks 16-17 (without Keaton Mitchell). In those two games, Edwards (49%) and Hill (48%) split snaps right down the middle. However, that’s largely driven by Hill’s usage in the passing game.
11b. Edwards handled 25 carries in Weeks 16-17, and Hill had 13.
12. As ever, Edwards remained the red-zone hammer. On plays inside-the-20, Edwards out-snapped Hill by a 70% to 15% margin in Weeks 16-17.
13. Houston is playing terrific run defense. Since Week 9, the Texans have allowed just 3.12 yards per carry (2nd-fewest) and a league-low 39.1% success rate on those totes.
Packers at 49ers (8:15pm ET, Saturday)
Green Bay
Jordan Love
1. Over his last 10 games, Jordan Love has completed 69% of his throws for 8.0 YPA, he has a stellar 23:3 TD-to-INT ratio, and he’s averaging 21.1 fantasy points per contest.
1b. Love has thrown for multiple passing TDs in nine of his last 10 games.
2. The 49ers are allowing just 0.30 passing fantasy points per dropback (2nd-fewest), and that only trails the Ravens (0.27 PFP/DB) for the league-low.
3. Over the final 10 weeks of the season (with DL Chase Young), the 49ers forced a 39% pressure rate (3rd-highest) while barely blitzing (15.5% – 3rd-lowest).
4. Love ranks 5th-best in both YPA (7.6) and passer rating (86.7) when pressured.
Aaron Jones
5. While Jordan Love is carrying the Packers offense, Aaron Jones is on an absolute tear of his own. In his last five games, Jones has rushed for 97/529/3 (5.45 YPC) on the ground.
6. Jones has handled a bell-cow role over the Packers' last two games without AJ Dillon (neck, thumb). In those two outings, Aaron Jones has handled 72% of the Packers snaps and 80% of the RB carries. No other Packer RB has earned a target.
Packers WR / TE
7. Jayden Reed failed to catch a pass last week despite the Packer's demolition of the Cowboys.
8. Over his final eight games of the season, Jayden Reed was fantasy’s WR10 by half-PPR points per game (14.8).
9. Romeo Doubs exploded for 6/151/1 receiving last week after averaging 3.2 receptions and 39.8 yards per game in Weeks 9-18.
10. The 49ers deployed either Cover-3 or Cover-6 zone on 59.6% of their opponents' dropbacks over the last 10 weeks of the season.
10b. Bo Melton (22%) and Romeo Doubs (21%) lead the Packers in first-read target share when facing Cover-3 or Cover-6 over Jayden Reed (16%).
11. Last week’s blowout limited Jordan Love to just 21 pass plays. However, the Packers went with a gross receiver rotation now that all of their receivers are back healthy. Eight different players saw a target in the Wild Card round, and no one – other than Doubs – was involved on more than 60% of the pass plays.
11. As expected, Christian Watson (six routes) was very limited in his return from a hamstring injury last week. Watson should be more involved against the 49ers. Here were the Packers routes and targets in the Wild Card round:
San Francisco
Brock Purdy
1. During the regular season, Purdy (0.63) just trailed Josh Allen (0.64) for the league lead in fantasy points scored per dropback.
2. Pressuring and knocking Purdy off of his first-read is key. When he’s kept clean, Purdy is absolutely crushing defenses to the tune of 10.4 YPA and +6.1% completion rate above expectation.
2b. When he’s pressured, Brock Purdy dips to 7.9 YPA and actually has a slightly below-average completion rate (-0.9% below expectation).
Christian McCaffrey
3. CMC closed out another dominant fantasy season by finishing as the RB1 by 2.5 fantasy points per game over RB2 Kyren Williams.
3b. CMC scored 5.5 more Half-PPR points per game than RB3 Raheem Mostert (17.1).
4. Green Bay can be run on. Since Week 9, the Packers have given up 4.33 YPC (9th-most), 101.6 rushing yards per game (16th), and 51.7% success rate on those carries (8th-highest).
5. Prior to dealing with a calf injury in Week 17, CMC eclipsed at least 103 scrimmage yards in eight straight games.
Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
6. Deebo closed out the fantasy season as the WR9 (14.2 FPG) and Aiyuk was WR13 (13.4 FPG).
7. In their 11 games together, Samuel led Aiyuk by a slim margin (74 to 68) in total targets and first-reads (26% share to 25%).
8. Aiyuk is averaging 84.3 yards per game followed by Deebo (67.5) and George Kittle (63.0).
9. Once again, the Packers predominantly played zone coverage on the overwhelming majority of the Cowboys' pass plays last week. In eight games with CB Jaire Alexander, the Packers have deployed zone coverages on 73% of their opponents' dropbacks. They played man coverage on just 15.7% of their pass plays against Dallas last week.
10. When facing zone coverages, Samuel (0.26) leads the 49ers in targets per route run over Aiyuk (0.23), Kittle (0.21), and CMC (0.18).
10b. The 49ers target distribution flips when they get man-to-man coverage. CMC (0.25) and Aiyuk (0.22) lead the 49ers in targets per route run when facing man – compared to Kittle (0.19) and Samuel (0.15).
Buccaneers at Lions (3pm ET, Sunday)
Tampa Bay
Baker Mayfield
1. Mayfield was money (337 yards, 3 TDs) in a perfect matchup against an Eagles defense that did not look like they wanted to take the field in Tampa Bay. His receivers left plenty of production on the field due to drops, too.
2. In his last five games (vs. GB, JAX, NO, CAR, PHI), Baker Mayfield has completed 68% of his throws (+4.8% above expected) for 8.8 YPA, an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio, and 289.4 passing yards per contest.
3. Over their last 10 games, the Lions have allowed a league-high 299.2 passing yards per game and 8.7 YPA (also a league-high).
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
4. Evans is in a bit of a funk with just 3.5 receptions and 48.6 yards per game over his last six contests.
4b. Chris Godwin has picked up Evans’ slack as of late, and he leads the team in targets (50) over Evans (40) in their last six games.
5. This is obviously a golden matchup. Detroit is allowing 2.65 yards per route run (most) to opposing outside receivers – and the 8th-most YPRR to slot WRs (2.05) – over their last 10 games. The bulk stats are somehow even worse…
5b. The Lions have been absolutely cleaned out for 147 receptions, 2,197 yards, and 17 TDs (46.9 PPR points per game!!) to opposing wide receivers over their last 10 games.
Rachaad White
6. Due to his passing down usage, Rachaad White is far less game-script dependent than most running backs. White is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game in wins and 12.7 FPG in losses.
7. For the most part, the Lions kept the Rams ground game in check last week for 68 yards on 17 carries. Detroit’s pass defense leaves a lot to be desired right now – but they continue to put together strong performances against the run.
7b. Over their last 10 games, Detroit is allowing 3.40 YPC (4th-fewest) and a 45% success rate (8th-lowest) on those carries. Chase Edmonds (toe) is questionable.
Cade Otton
8. Otton led the Bucs in targets (11) and receiving (8/89) last week as the Eagles' pitifully slow LBs could not defend the middle of the field. That won’t happen again here. Still, this is definitely not a bad matchup. Over their last 10 games, Detroit has allowed 7.8 yards per target to tight ends (6th-most).
Detroit
Jared Goff
1. Goff was near perfect against the Rams last week, connecting on 22-of-27 throws for 277 yards and a TD. Once again, Goff showed out as a home-favorite.
1b. We’re really high on Goff when he’s at home and favored. Over the last two seasons, Goff is averaging 295.3 passing yards and 2.6 passing TDs per game (8.3 YPA) when he’s at home and the Lions are the favorite to win.
1c. In games on the road or as an underdog, Goff averages just 248.6 passing yards and 1.3 passing TDs per game (7.2 YPA).
2. Beyond Jalen Hurts hitting DeVonta Smith for 8/148 receiving on 12 targets, the Eagles' inept offense could not take advantage of a weaker Bucs secondary last week.
3. Tampa Bay is blitzing their opponents on 47% of their dropbacks, and they’re generating pressure 39% of the time. Both of those figures are the 2nd-highest rates since Week 9.
3b. Goff is sensitive to blitzes. When he’s blitzed, Goff is completing 61.5% of his throws (-2.0% below expected) for 7.1 YPA and a 78.4 passer rating. In fact, seven of Goff’s 12 INTs have come against blitzes this season.
3c. When he’s not blitzed, and he faces 3- or 4-man rushes, Goff is completing 70.8% of his passes (+4.7% above expectation) for 7.9 YPA and a 108.6 passer rating.
3d. Goff’s 108.6 passer rating – when he’s not blitzed – ranks 2nd-best behind Brock Purdy (115).
3e. Goff’s 78.4 rating vs. the blitz ranks 30th-of-41 QBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery
4. In their last 10 games together, Gibbs is out-scoring Montgomery by 15.0 to 13.0 FPG (Half-PPR).
4b. Montgomery has the slight lead in carries (139 to 114), but that doesn’t matter too much because Gibbs is getting the majority of the passing down work (42 targets on 177 routes) compared to Montgomery (14 targets on 88 routes).
4c. Gibbs has out-snapped Montgomery by a 57% to 42% margin inside-the-10 (red-zone) across their last 10 contests. The carries have been split 20 to 16 – in favor of Montgomery.
5. The Buccaneers are a tougher run unit. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has given up just 3.54 YPC (6th-fewest) and a 44.8% success rate on those carries (7th-lowest).
Amon-Ra St. Brown
6. Over his last five games, the Sun god is as hot as plasma with 39/562/4 receiving on 50 targets. He’s not coverable on the outside or when he’s in the slot.
7. When Goff is blitzed, Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the Lions in targets (28.3% share), and he’s shredding defenses to the tune of 2.93 yards per route run.
7b. This is how the Lions receivers have performed against blitzes this season from our Data Suite:
8. Tampa Bay allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to opposing WRs during the regular season, and DeVonta Smith just ripped them for 8/148 receiving.
Sam LaPorta
9. Unexpectedly, LaPorta played a near-normal role last week (73% route share) and had a huge TD on a do-or-die 4th down.
10. Tampa Bay is getting hammered by tight ends for 41/421/5 receiving (on 64 targets) over their last six games. That’s 15.4 half-PPR points per game.
Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams
11. Jameson Williams set a new season-high in route share (80%) last week, but he only earned two targets. Kalif Raymond (knee) is out again.
12. Josh Reynolds has re-joined the Lions passing attack, and he’s 3rd on the team in targets (16) across their last three games. He’s turned those looks into 11/137 receiving.
Chiefs at Bills (6:30pm ET, Sunday)
Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes
1. Mahomes has eclipsed 20 or more FP in just 5-of-17 games (29%) this season.
1b. In his two previous seasons, Mahomes scored 20 or more FP in 28-of-40 games (70%).
2. Mahomes’ 4.5% pass TD is 2% points lower than his career average (6.5%).
3. Buffalo is allowing a 3.4% pass TD – which is tied with Kansas City for the 5th-lowest rate.
4. The Bills are playing two-high safety coverage on 58% of their opponents' dropbacks.
4b. Patrick Mahomes is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt (6.4-yard average depth of target) with a 12:8 TD-to-INT ratio when facing two-high safety coverages. 4c. Against single-high safety looks, Mahomes’ YPA spikes to 7.5, along with his aDOT (7.1) and his TD-to-INT ratio (16:6).
4d. By passer rating, Mahomes ranks 21st-of-32 QBs (88.3) against two-high looks.
4e. That spikes to a 95.8 rating against one-high safety coverage (12th-best).
Rashee Rice
5. In his last eight games, Rashee Rice is on fire with 55/690/4 receiving (on 73 targets).
5b. Rice is averaging 15.1 Half-PPR points per game in this span – which would have made him the WR6 over Nico Collins (14.6 FPG) across the entire season.
6. Rice finished the Week 14 bout vs. the Bills with 7/72/1 receiving. Of which, 5/38/1 came against two-high safety coverages.
7. Rice (26.4%) trails Travis Kelce (27.6%) in first-read target share against two-high safety coverages over their last eight games.
7b. However, Rice is far more efficient, and he’s averaging 2.97 yards per route run when the Chiefs are facing a two-high look. This compares to just 1.56 YPRR for Travis Kelce.
Travis Kelce
8. These are Kelce’s stat lines vs. Bills (last 5 games) – 6/57/1, 13/118/2, 8/108, 8/96/1, and 6/83. He’s seen at least nine targets in every single matchup against Buffalo.
Isiah Pacheco
9. As expected, Pacheco handled a bell-cow workload (70% of snaps) in the Wild Card round.
9b. In four starts without McKinnon on the field, Pacheco has played on 77% of the Chiefs' snaps and he’s handled 84% of the backfield expected fantasy points.
10. Buffalo continues to play tight run defense. Last week, they limited the Steelers to 20/75 rushing (3.75 YPC). Over their last 10 games, the Bills have allowed a lowly 44% success rate on the ground (4th-best) and just 3.77 YPC. Pacheco was not available in Week 14 when the Bills and Chiefs met.
Chiefs WRs
11. Justin Watson (61% route share) and Mecole Hardman (47%) emerged as the Chiefs #2 and #3 wideouts over Marquez Valdes-Scantling (40%) last week. Skyy Moore won’t return off of I.R. this week.
11b. Kelce (37%) and Rice (26%) accounted for 63% of the Chiefs first-read targets last week. There is not much room for anyone else here.
Buffalo
Josh Allen
1. Allen has eclipsed 20 or more FP in 14-of-18 games (78%) this season.
2. The Chiefs are playing two-high safety coverages more than any team in the league – by far. Since Week 9, Kansas City has rolled their safeties back into two-high look on 74% of opponents' dropbacks. The league average is 48%.
2b. Kansas City played two-high on 63% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks in Week 14 – which is slightly below their usual rate. 3. Against two-high safety coverages, Allen has completed 69% of his throws for 7.6 YPA and a 100.3 passer rating (7th-best).
3b. In general, Allen fares slightly better against two-high coverages. Against one-high looks, Allen drops to a 64% completion rate, 7.2 YPA, and an 87.9 passer rating (16th).
4. In his last eight games, Josh Allen has 71 carries (8.9 per game) for 352 yards and 9 rushing TDs.
James Cook
5. After hovering near a 45-55% snap rate for the majority of the season, James Cook has taken on a larger role in recent weeks. In the Bills' last four games, Cook has played 62% of the snaps as his involvement on passing downs has spiked.
5b. Cook’s route share over the Bills' last four outings is 48% – which is up from 33% in his four previous games.
5c. Unfortunately, this uptick in usage has not yet turned into production. Cook has just eight receptions for 17 yards on 11 targets in his last four games.
Stefon Diggs
6. Across his last nine games, Diggs has turned his 72 targets into just 44 receptions, 401 yards, and 1 TD.
6b. Diggs and Allen have just missed on a few splash plays in recent weeks, but this is easily the worst stretch of Diggs’ time in Buffalo.
6c. The Chiefs held Diggs to just 4/24 receiving on 11 targets back in Week 14. Diggs dropped two passes in that game.
7. Over the Bills' last nine games, Diggs has earned 31.2% of the first-read targets against two-high safety looks, while Dalton Kincaid’s first-read share (24.7%) is second-highest.
8. Unlike previous seasons, Diggs is not destroying single-high coverage. This season, Diggs is averaging 2.16 yards per route run against one-high safety coverages, and his efficiency dips slightly (1.96 YPRR) against two-high looks.
8b. Last year, Diggs averaged a strong 2.80 YPRR against one-high looks (and that dipped to 2.35 YPRR vs. two-high).
Dalton Kincaid
9. In the Bills' last nine games, Kincaid has earned 24.7% of the first-read targets and is averaging 2.04 yards per route run.
9b. Against single-high safety looks, Kincaid dips to 18% of the first-read targets and just 1.61 YPRR.
10. Kincaid has 6, 7, and 8 targets over his last three games with Dawson Knox active. In his previous eight games with Knox, the rookie was averaging just 3.9 targets per contest.
11. Kincaid earned eight targets back in Week 14 against the Chiefs. That was Knox’s first game back from a wrist injury.
Khalil Shakir
10. As expected, Shakir was a full-time starter last week, and he was 2nd on the Bills in routes (74% share) after Diggs (88%).
11. In eight games where he’s played more than 65% of the snaps this season, Shakir has turned his 34 targets into a near-perfect 30/510/2 receiving (2.17 yards per route run).
11b. Shakir’s 2.17 YPPR in his eight starts leads the Bills.
11c. Relatively speaking, the Chiefs are much easier to throw on through the slot as opposed to out wide. This season, receivers averaged just 1.65 YPPR (6th-fewest) when aligned out wide against Kansas City. However, when lined up in the slot, receivers spiked to 1.88 YPRR (8th-most).
11d. Shakir lines up in the slot on 77% of his routes. Gabe Davis (knee) still is not practicing.
