We have an exciting partnership with the high-stakes leaders FFPC, which is the industry-leading spot to go play high-stakes dynasty leagues against some of the best players in the world.
What makes the FFPC unique is that the format is TE premium, meaning TEs get 1.5 PPR as opposed to the general 1 PPR RBs and WRs get. It also bumps TEs up draft boards (duh), which gives us unique buying opportunities elsewhere.
I went in depth into the FFPC’s dynasty ADP to choose some of the most glaring market mispricings, with a lot of guys who will end up on my startup dynasty teams.
Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Detroit Lions
FFPC ADP: 69.2 – Late 5th round (WR32)
Even though the Lions have a new offensive coordinator (Ben Johnson), Detroit finally has a head coach (Dan Campbell) in place that clearly grasps the needs of the franchise. Selecting Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams with their first two 2022 draft picks are certainly steps in the right direction under GM Brad Holmes. However, the gaping holes that remain in the defense will make it quite difficult for the team to push their way out of the bottom-10 teams this season. The offense will be in capable hands once again under Jared Goff, but it’s a near-guarantee that the Lions will look to acquire a QB from the stacked 2023 draft class.
Whether it’s Goff or a QB from the ‘23 class, Amon-Ra St. Brown has excelled working with a different QB in three of the last four seasons. He popped last season to tie for the fifth-most receptions by a rookie WR in NFL history (90). And he unseated Chris Godwin as the top-scoring WR across from Cover 2 (0.53 FPs/route). While it’s difficult to establish a clear influence for Johnson’s coaching discipline, previously serving under Bill Lazor and Anthony Lynn is a clear indication the offense will stick to a spread philosophy. The Lions used the fifth-highest rate of 10-personnel under Lynn last season. That will keep ARSB, DJ Chark Jr., T.J. Hockenson (detached) and, when healthy, Williams on the field to maximize passing production.
Between the deficiencies on defense and the late ACL injury for Williams, it’s quite comical coming across narratives that St. Brown will fail to live up to his 2021 results this upcoming season. Think about it, we don’t need ARSB to match the otherworldly results of his late-rookie season pace. Evening out those touches across a full season will be more than enough for him to vastly outperform his going rate. St. Brown offers a skill level that should already be scooped up 30 picks earlier than his current FFPC ADP. Lucky for us, we can wait until the late fourth to add St. Brown as a WR2 that has the potential to score as our WR1.
Elijah Mitchell | RB | San Francisco 49ers
FFPC ADP: 60.7 – Early 5th round (RB24)
You’ll hear me continue to pound the table for the majority of the names spotlighted in this piece. Elijah Mitchell is one of those individuals. The sophomore RB gave his all for San Francisco to post top-six placement in rushing attempts/game (19.5), touches/game (21.2) and rushing FPG (11.8) as a rookie. Coming out of the University of Louisiana, Mitchell cut 20 pounds of weight in order to register a 4.35-second 40-time and 6.94-second 3-cone at his ULL Pro Day.
With one of my former analysis mentors, Bobby Slowik, taking over as offensive coordinator for the 49ers, I can pass along with decent certainty that Slowik will have Mitchell ready for the upcoming season closer to the 220 pounds that he played at during all four of his seasons in Lafayette. Trey Sermon and 93rd-overall ‘22 pick Tyrion Davis-Price will be ready to enter the lineup should Mitchell be injured. And injuries were certainly an issue for Mitchell last season. He missed time due to the following injuries:
Shoulder – two games
Finger fracture – one game
Concussion & knee sprain – three games
Of the coaching preferences that I am thoroughly aware of during my years of working with Coach Slowik, a devotion we can count on Slowik adhering to is maximizing the advantage provided by the top run-blocking o-line and the top run-blocking TE (George Kittle) toward using a high percentage of heavy sets. We’ve seen a sharp decline in the percentage of two-TE sets from the ‘9ers the last two seasons. The combination of Mitchell bulking back up and the utilization of more multiple-TE sets should assist the second-year back toward staying off the trainers table.
The only explanation for Mitchell falling to the early fifth is related to fears of reinjury. With the evidence pointing toward Mitchell decreasing those injury risks, that avoidance only screams opportunity. Keep in mind, Mitchell averaged 1.49 yards/route (YPRR) during his Louisiana career. Clearly an untapped strength that will come into play sooner rather than later. We got a glimpse of that in his two playoff games with six receptions and 68 receiving yards. It’s simply too good to be true that we can secure Mitchell in the early fifth, when he should be coming off the board right after David Montgomery and Aaron Jones – over a full round prior to his current ADP.
Gabriel Davis | WR | Buffalo Bills
FFPC ADP: 83.6 – Late 6th round (WR36)
Right alongside St. Brown, Gabriel Davis continues to be an overlooked commodity in dynasty circles. It says a lot about Buffalo’s devotion to Davis that they only added Jamison Crowder, Tavon Austin and ‘22 fifth-rounder Khalil Shakir to the WR rotation – all three projected to work on the inside. Let’s get it out there, this is going to be the Stefon Diggs and Davis show along the perimeter. In spite of nearly identical targeting rates to inside and outside receivers, Josh Allen’s sideline options have caught 75% of his TD connections to WRs. During the last six games of the ‘21 season when Davis was heavily featured, outside WRs collected 10% more receiving yardage over expectation.
If you need an overriding stat to drive home the point, here you go: Davis leads all WRs with at least 68 receptions the last three seasons with a TD rate of 21%. To put that number into perspective, let’s use the greatest of all-time, Jerry Rice, as an example. From 1986 through 1996 – an 11-year stretch standing as Rice’s prime when he averaged 13.7 TDs/season, Flash 80 posted a TD rate of 15.1%. Let’s not forget that Davis ended his UCF career by scoring the second-most TDs in school history (23). The aerial scoring excellence from Davis is simply without comparison among active players. His nose for end zone appearances is at the level of a top-flight TE, not a wideout. That’s why it’s quite unexplainable how a massive increase in ‘22 opportunities for Davis could somehow be perceived as the 36th-best WR option in dynasty.
With the world sleeping on Sleepy G, we have a grand opportunity to acquire one of the highest-upside playmakers in the game at pennies on the dollar. To what level is he currently being ignored? Davis’ 83.6 FFPC ADP is, based on my calculation, currently 41 spots later than we should be seeing him drafted. To be clear, using Rice’s TD rate is not an attempt at a one-for-one comparison. Just make sure you get out in front of the stubborn population to secure the future No. 1 of the most explosive juggernaut in the game.
Jahan Dotson | WR | Washington Commanders
FFPC ADP: 102.1 – Mid 8th round (WR46)
Terry McLaurin is currently engaged in contract extension discussions with the Washington front office. Unlike what will eventually become a dumpster fire sell-off in Tennessee, don’t count on seeing McLaurin F1 packaged in a lopsided trade. That said, his absence has provided a golden opportunity for Jahan Dotson to both see featured reps with Carson Wentz and immediately lock down the starting flanker role in the offense. Not sure if that last sentence has settled in with the natives: a first round WR has secured a starting job prior to training camp. Judging by the FFPC ADP, the content of that TPS report memo has not been received.
Dotson hasn’t simply been playing well during Washington practices — reports suggest he’s been unstoppable. While dealing with the wild inaccuracy of Sean Clifford at Penn State, Dotson still managed to manufacture the seventh-most FPs/route against Cover 2 and the 19th-most across from Cover 3 among the 402 draft-eligible WRs in the ‘22 class during his Penn State career. It just so happens that both of those schemes stand as the career wheelhouse established by Wentz. He has delivered the sixth-most FPs/dropback against Cover 2 (0.40) and 23rd-most vs. Cover 3 (0.35) the last three seasons. That 23rd placement may not enrich the senses, but it easily stands as the second-best coverage Wentz has succeeded against during his career.
Lot of buzz on Jahan Dotson out of #Commanders camp. Here's what Ron Rivera said when I asked about the first-round pick: "Very precise route runner, excellent hands, very sharp, very smart young man, hard worker -- has done all the things you need to do to feel good about (him)"— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) June 20, 2022
Make no mistake, Dotson’s best football is in front of him. The reasoning behind the Commanders selecting Dotson in the first round will become immediately clear when the action commences. McLaurin has never played with a receiver that even approaches Dotson’s abilities during his Washington career. A mid-eighth round investment in Dotson – the current FFPC average – will prove to be an unbelievable ROI opportunity that will be considered absurdly cheap in the future. We obviously want to wait as long as possible to maximize the returns, just keep in mind that Dotson should be drafted to rosters at least three rounds prior than we’re seeing.
James Cook | RB | Buffalo Bills
FFPC ADP: 86.7 – Early 7th round (RB31)
The second ‘22 rookie on this list that is being significantly undervalued, James Cook’s abilities are not all that far off from his older brother’s. The younger Cook may not have the thickness in his lower half that we see from Dalvin Cook, but James is also the superior receiver. Cook made SEC defenders look silly in coverage throughout his Georgia career. We want to see RBs post at least 1.00 YPRR collegiately to consider a featured receiving role in their future. Among 152 draft-eligible RBs, Cook generated the highest receiving TD rate (2.2%) and targeted passer rating (148.5), while only Rachaad White (2.61) topped his 1.84 YPRR average.
The Bills want to use James Cook like a wide receiver 😳 pic.twitter.com/3fRB4SaVS5— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 30, 2022
The Bills would not have invested their second-rounder into Cook if they planned to have him work with anything less than a 50:50 carry split with Devin Singletary. Not to mention the fact that Singletary has represented the receiving opportunities he’s received in Buffalo the last three seasons with 0.72 YPRR. A 50% portion of the carries, along with the passing down responsibilities offers up outstanding upside within the high-scoring Bills’ offense. We should be seeing Cook come off the board in the late-fifth, early-sixth round. Yet we’re seeing him fall to the seventh round based upon FFPC ADP. You know what to do.
James Robinson | RB | Jacksonville Jaguars
FFPC ADP: 130.4 – Late 10th round (RB45)
It seems an unfortunate narrative has persisted from the ‘21 season that Travis Etienne Jr. is still a direct threat to James Robinson’s role in the offense. We are seeing Etienne drafted in the third round of dynasty start-ups, yet Robinson is lasting into the 10th. Yes, Robinson suffered an Achilles tear last season. We have no definite time frame in place from the Jags as to when he might be at full health this season. But we’re discussing dynasty value here. If we’re downgrading Robinson due to his injury, we should go right ahead and do the same for Jameson Williams, Chris Godwin, etc., while we’re at it. For those, like me, who view injuries as blips on the radar, pouncing on talents mid-rehabilitation isn’t only the intention, it’s a clear focus.
Prior to his injury, J-Rob created the 10th-highest rushing TD rate (4.9%), fifth-highest goal line TD responsibility (72.7%) and the 12th-most FPs/carry (0.74). Out of necessity, Robinson was likely miscast in the passing-down role. That’s a role destined for Etienne. However, Robinson has averaged 1.03 YPRR during his career, leaving plenty of value on the table as a receiver to see a portion of those future touches. There’s no question that Etienne should be high on the redraft radar while Robinson mends his wounds. However, don’t be shocked when Robinson recaptures the featured early-down, goal line role upon his healthy return. The fact that we can scoop him up as the RB45 makes for an unbelievable value — particularly true whenever Trevor Lawrence’s play inevitably improves and fuels the offense to greater heights.
Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | New York Giants
FFPC ADP: 163.0 – Mid 13th round (WR63)
The current deal with Wan’Dale Robinson’s FFPC ADP rivals that of Davis for the right to offer the highest ROI of your entire startup. By placing Brian Daboll under contract, the Giants will transition to an offensive-oriented team, entirely expected to utilize 10- and 11-personnel at rates that will only be contended with by the Cardinals and, maybe, the Jets. We can count on it being quite some before we see Sterling Shepard return from his Achilles injury. Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton – if he manages to keep his roster spot – and Robinson will be on the field together in 10, and the quartet will compete with one another for reps in three-wide. We know Toney and Golladay will stay on the field in the short-term. But Golladay will find his ticket out of town if his play continues to fail the organization.
Daniel Jones *full send* to rookie WR Wan’Dale Robinson who makes a great catch in the endzone pic.twitter.com/dwmPhtuILP— Madelyn Burke (@MadelynBurke) May 26, 2022
The simple fact that Daboll and GM Joe Schoen used their ‘22 second-rounder on Robinson passes along exactly what we need to know. Robinson is going to be a big part of this offense. Robinson dominated Cover 1, Cover 3 and Cover 6 in SEC play last season. Prior to that, he showcased salivating skill on the ground as Nebraska’s primary RB. It should be noted that we may not get the best out of Wan’Dale with Daniel Jones running the show. However, the Giants will likely be in the running for either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud in next year’s draft. A mid-13th round FFPC ADP investment on a rookie expected to contribute right out of the gate is about as no-brainer of a decision as it gets.
Russell Gage | WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FFPC ADP: 148.6 – Mid 12th round (WR59)
Russell Gage’s value potential may fall behind Davis and Robinson’s, but not by much. Until we get a concrete ETA on Chris Godwin’s return from ACL surgery, a dynamite opportunity for money targets from the GOAT is up for grabs. Gage proved last season that he is far more than No. 3 wideout. He flipped 93 targets into 1.96 YPRR (17th-most) and 0.42 FPs/route (22nd). The Buccaneers used the fifth-highest rate of 11-personnel last year, guaranteeing Gage’s playing time beyond Godwin’s return.
The most significant boost to Gage will be in transitioning from the 19th-most air yards/game from Matt Ryan (257.7), to the most in the NFL last season provided by Tom Brady (343.8). Numbers that descend deeper with Ryan averaging the sixth-fewest air yards/attempt (7.82). The bonus of some extra air yardage on each throw is certainly appealing, not to mention joining the team that scored the second-most PPG last season (30.1) – 39% more than the Falcons. Yes, we will need to consider the reality that Tom Brady will retire at some point. However, the ultimate goal in dyno should always be in evaluating the player, as the potential situation in the future should only hold secondary importance.
Beyond three seasons, always revert to athleticism in a dynasty evaluation. At his LSU Pro Day in 2018, Gage – measured at 6-foot, 186 pounds – posted a 4.50-second 40-time (59th-percentile), 2.54-second 20-yard split (79th), 1.54-second 10-yard split (70th), 7.03-second 3-cone (57th) and a 39-inch vertical jump (63rd). He also had his arms measured at 33 inches (69th-percentile). As you can see, Gage offers more than enough athleticism to compete into his early 30’s. A current mid-12th round valuation based upon the FFPC ADP is music to the ears.
Allen Lazard | WR | Green Bay Packers
FFPC ADP: 153.3 – Late 12th round (WR60)
We have a nearly identical situation for Allen Lazard that we do with Gage. Like Brady, we really don’t know how many more years Aaron Rodgers intends to play. Like the Bucs, until that day comes, Lazard will benefit from playing with one of the all-time greats, who just so happens to be the league’s back-to-back MVP that’s averaged 4,619 passing yards, 40 TDs and only five INTs the last three seasons. Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins are on the downside of their careers. If you know Mr. Rodgers, you know he will force youngsters Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Amari Rodgers to check a list of boxes before offering them significant target shares in his offense.
In a nutshell, it’s a selection by elimination situation for Lazard. However, Rodgers stated the following regarding Lazard:
Aaron Rodgers on Allen Lazard: “He’s been our dirty work guy for most of his career here. Now he’s getting an opportunity to be a No. 1 receiver. I’m not worried about him at all stepping into that role.”— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) June 8, 2022
Davante Adams ate up such a massive percentage of the targets – 32% last season – that it would be inaccurate to label Lazard as a poor performer against any coverage scheme. Particularly true for the one coverage shell that Lazard has done little against, Cover 3, which happens to be the same one Adams has shredded to the tune of the fourth-most FPs/route the last three seasons (0.58). Even with Adams beasting the opposition, Lazard still found considerable success across from Cover 1, 4 and 6.
Beyond his playing days with Rodgers, Lazard will bring his upcoming reign as A-Rod’s No. 1, 87th-percentile height, 82nd-percentile weight, 68th-percentile wingspan and greater than a 50th-percentile measurement in each athletic measurement category sans the pro shuttle (39th) and broad jump (42nd) to service for his next QB. And it’s not as if it’s that difficult to envision the 40/513/8 receiving line he posted last year bloating into WR1 territory over the next couple seasons. It’s more than enough to question-and-attack his current FFPC ADP of a late-12th round investment.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | Green Bay Packers
FFPC ADP: 178.6 – Late 14th round (WR70)
I get it. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is not a brimming under-25 spitball, offering us a decade-or-so of service. Instead, he will enter Week 1 of the ‘22 season aged at 27 years, 11 months. Just make sure that it’s clear that if we are going to deflate the dynasty value of MVS based on his age, add Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks to that list. Like Lazard, Valdes-Scantling has been playing in the shadow of Davante Adams throughout his career. It’s unfortunate for Aaron Rodgers that he will never have the opportunity to feature MVS in his offense.
At 6-foot-4, 206 pounds, Valdes-Scantling is one of only three WRs to stand at least 75 inches and post a sub-4.4 second 40-yard dash over the last 10 seasons at the NFL Combine. The other two examples? DK Metcalf and Christian Watson. MVS joined James Lofton as the only Packers in franchise history to average 15-plus YPR and at least 25 receptions during their first four seasons. And Valdes-Scantling led the NFL with his 20.9 YPR two seasons ago. Since 2018, MVS has registered the fourth-most receptions (18) and TDs (eight) of at least 40 yards.
*Patrick Mahomes had 76 pass attempts of 20+ yards last season— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) June 9, 2022
28 were directed at Tyreek Hill
*Aaron Rodgers had 73 pass attempts of 20+ yards last season
22 were directed at Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Y'all are allowing MVS to be the WR48 on @UnderdogFantasy pic.twitter.com/uRoqHHutOD
Based on the total cash involved, Valdes-Scantling will earn 95% of the ‘22 investment the Chiefs are devoting to Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster, combined. Since Hardman and JJSS will come off the books next season, the three-year deal signed already informs us of the anticipated involvement that Andy Reid and Brett Veach envision for MVS. With Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson playing elsewhere this season, 74% of the target share devoted to ‘21 WRs is up for grabs. Valdes-Scantling will have the opportunity alongside Moore to secure a major chunk of Patrick Mahomes’ attention for years to come. How MVS has managed to be ignored, based upon the FFPC ADP, until the late-14th round is beyond comprehension.