Week 11 IDP Preview

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Week 11 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.

A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.

Teams on Bye: Denver, Los Angeles Rams

Ind @ Buf

Targets:

Kenny Moore (CB, Ind) — Moore had 5 tackles last week, but that’s his floor. He’s had at least 7 tackles in 7 of his 10 games and has been one of the more reliable CBs in the league. He’s also had 6 PD in his last three games. Moore heads into Week 11 with a good matchup, as Buffalo is 6th in FPG to DBs.

A.J. Klein (LB, Buf) — This is only if Tremaine Edmunds is inactive on Sunday. But if Edmunds is out, Klein will be thrust back into a starting role. Last week in that role, Klein took 88% of the snaps and posted 7 tackles (6 solo), 2 TFL, and a PD. Fellow LB Matt Milano is also questionable.

Avoids:

Darius Leonard (LB, Ind) — Leonard continues to play through his injured ankle. Last week, he only posted 6 tackles (4 solo). On top of his bum ankle, Leonard has a bum matchup. Buffalo’s pass-first-ask-questions-later vertical offense tends to leave LBs wanting more. They’re 26th in opposing LB fantasy production.

Taron Johnson (CB, Buf) — Johnson has a bad matchup this week, as the Colts haven’t been a good matchup for DBs, and it’s often the slot corners like Johnson that get hit hardest in bad DB matchups. Indianapolis is just 25th in FPG to DBs.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB Xavier Rhodes, Ind - calf

LB Tremaine Edmunds, Buf - hamstring

LB Matt Milano, Buf - shoulder

Was @ Car

Targets:

Jonathan Allen (DT, Was) — With Montez Sweat and Chase Young out, Allen and Daron Payne should see increased opportunity. Both can play outside to help cover the loss of the team’s two best edge defenders. Last week with Sweat out and Young injured early, their snaps increased from the 60-70% range to around 80%. Carolina runs it at the 10th-highest rate and produces the most FPG to DLs. The Carolina stat crew tends to split tackles evenly between solos and assists, so if they get 4-6 tackles, expect them to be split down the middle by the stat crew.

Shaq Thompson (LB, Car) — Thompson has been a stronger fantasy producer since returning from IR. He’s had 27 tackles in his last three games and is back to leading this defense. Thompson has a strong matchup this week, as Washington produces the 5th-highest production to LBs.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB Kendall Fuller, Was - knee

Bal @ Chi

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Patrick Queen (LB, Bal) — Queen had a nice game last week: 5 tackles, a sack, and a FF…but on just 52%. That’s not sustainable, especially considering how low that tackle floor is. Fellow LB Josh Bynes played 70% and seems to have supplanted Queen over the last few weeks. Bynes had 4 solos and a sack as well. As I mentioned on the IDP Corner, I don’t like using LBs who can get out-tackled by DLs.

Injuries:

OUT

OLB Pernell McPhee, Bal - knee

DT Brandon Wiliams, Bal - shoulder

DT Akiem Hicks, Chi - ankle

LB Danny Trevathan, Chi - knee

OLB Khalil Mack, Chi - foot

QUESTIONABLE

CB Jimmy Smith, Bal - hip

CB Tavon Young, Bal - foot

CB Anthony Averett, Bal - thigh

LB Alec Ogletree, Chi - ankle

S Eddie Jackson, Chi - hamstring

Det @ Cle

Targets:

Anthony Walker (LB, Cle) — Walker has at least 8 tackles in every game but one, and has 10 or more tackles twice in his last four games. He’ll take that consistency into his matchup this week, which happens to be the best LB matchup of the week. The Lions produce 27 tackles — 18 of which are solos — per game to LBs, both of which are league-leading.

Avoids:

John Johnson III (S, Cle) — Even in a stellar matchup last week, Johnson couldn’t come through. He played every snap but managed just 3 tackles (1 solo). Just imagine how bad he might be in a poor matchup. Sadly, it won’t be hard to imagine this week, as Detroit is just 30th in FPG to DBs.

Injuries:

OUT

OLB Trey Flowers, Det - knee

CB Troy Hill, Cle - neck

QUESTIONABLE

S Tracy Walker III, Det - concussion

DT Malik Jackson, Cle - knee

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle - wrist/ankle/knee

DE Takkarist McKinley, Cle - groin

SF @ Jax

Targets:

JImmie Ward (S, SF) — Through the first 10 games, almost no one has thrown it more often than the Jaguars (64%). If the game script holds, the 11th game will be no different. This is music to the ears of opposing secondaries and their fantasy managers. I like Ward most, but Josh Norman and Emmanuel Moseley have extra upside this week as well.

Avoids:

Rayshawn Jenkins (S, Jax) — Jenkins has been a reliable DB2/DB3, usually posting between 4-8 tackles per game. His opponent this week hasn’t been kind to DBs this season, as the 49ers are 29th in FPG to DBs. I’m starting Jenkins in 3-DB leagues, but I’m expecting him to land closer to the 4 side of his tackle range.

Injuries:

OUT

DL Maurice Hurst, SF - calf

QUESTIONABLE

LB Myles Jack, Jax - knee

GB @ Min

Targets:

De’Vondre Campbell (LB, GB) — Campbell had an uncharacteristically slow game last week, managing just 5 solos. But his opponent Seattle also had an uncharacteristically slow game. The Packers only needed 43 tackles to subdue the Seahawks, and Campbell’s 5 tackles were tied for the team lead. This week, Campbell should see his fortunes reverse, as Minnesota is a top-10 opponent for LB fantasy production.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

LB Rashan Gary, GB - elbow

CB Kevin King, GB - groin/shoulder

S Darnell Savage, GB - ankle

DE D.J. Wonnum, Min - NIR

LB Anthony Barr, Min - knee

S Harrison Smith, Min - NIR

CB Bashaud Breeland, Min - groin

CB Mackenzie Alexander, Min - NIR

Mia @ NYJ

Targets:

Jevon Holland (S, Mia) — Holland and the whole Miami secondary has stepped it up lately. Since Week Seven — when Holland earned a starting role — the rookie has at least 5 tackles in every game but one. This week, he and Eric Rowe are in line for increased production. The Jets are the top option for opposing DBs. Holland has also been returning punts if your league awards points for return yards.

C.J. Mosley (LB, NYJ) — Mosley has another good matchup this week, as the Miami offense produces the 8th-most FPG to LBs. Mosley has been one of the more reliable LB options this season, posting at least 7 tackles in every game since Week One, and hitting the double-digit tackle mark in five of his last seven games.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

LB Andrew Van Ginkel, Mia - back

NO @ Phi

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Anthony Harris (S, Phi) — The Saints rely so heavily on the run — 5th-highest run % — that they just don’t make much happen in the secondary. They’re dead last in FPG to DBs. Harris isn’t a straight “sit” this week due to his ability to play the run, but he’s not in a great position to bust out. This could also be a slow game for Rodney Mcleod.

Demario Davis (LB, NO) — Davis has been fairly steady for fantasy, but the additions of Pete Werner and Kwon Alexander have created more tackle competition than in recent years. After being an 8-10 tackle producer earlier in the season, now that both Werner and Alexander are healthy, Davis has slipped into the 5-6 tackle range. Add to that his terrible matchup this week, and I’m looking elsewhere for my LB2. The Eagles produce the second-fewest FPG to opposing LBs.

Injuries:

OUT

DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, NO - ankle

DL Malcolm Roach, NO - knee

DE Derek Barnett, Phi - neck

Hou @ Ten

Targets:

Jonathan Greenard (DE, Hou) — Tennessee continues to create massive production to DLs, even without Derrick Henry. They run it at the 3rd-highest rate and produce the highest FPG to DLs virtually every week. Greenard has had a consistently strong season, putting good tape together each week, and is in a great position to have another strong week for fantasy. He’s questionable with a foot injury, but he did get in limited practices all week.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

OUT

OLB Bud Dupree, Ten - abdomen

LB Rashaan Evans, Ten - ankle

LB David Long, Jr., Ten - hamstring

QUESTIONABLE

DE Jonathan Greenard, Hou - foot

DT Jeffery Simmons, Ten - ankle

OLB Harold Landry, Ten - hamstring

CB Jackrabbit Jenkins, Ten - chest

Cin @ LV

Targets:

Johnathan Abram (S, LV) — I’ve sung Abram’s praises early and often this season. He plays one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in Gus Bradley’s defense, as a box safety in a predominantly single-high safety scheme. While not great in coverage, tackling is Abram’s forte. His 10 tackles (6 solo) this past week give him 24 tackles, a PD, and a fumble recovery in his last three games combined. His matchup is also favorable, as Cincinnati is 7th in FPG to DBs.

Avoids:

Trey Hendrickson (DE, Cin) — Hendrickson has been hitting the sackpot about every week, posting at least 1 sack in every game but two. He’s been one of the best big-play defenders this season, but he’s got his work cut out for him this week. The Raiders and their strong O-line just don’t give up much production to DLs. They run it at a bottom-5 rate and are 30th in FPG to DLs.

Injuries:

OUT

LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LV - ankle

Dal @ KC

Targets:

L’Jarius Sneed (CB, KC) — Sneed has been a target magnet as he rotates from slot corner to lining up outside. He’s been targeted at least 5 times in seven of his last eight games and 9 times twice in his last three games. All that action has led to Sneed racking up 26 tackles in his last four games (at least 6 in each game), and as is usually the case with a CB, most of those tackles were solos. This week, DAL is a top-5 matchup for DBs. Sneed has been limited in practice though and is questionable.

Avoids:

Chris Jones (DT, KC) — If you’re waiting for Jones to bust out, this might not be the week. CJ started the season strong, debuting his move to DE with 2 sacks in Week One. But since then, he’s had just 1 sack and only has one game with more than 2 tackles. They’ve been using him more in his old DT role lately, but that hasn't helped. The Cowboys won’t make it any easier on him. The stout Dallas O-line has been stingy to opposing DLs, as they’re just 31st in FPG to DLs so far.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB L’Jarius Sneed, KC - knee

Ari @ Sea

Targets:

Zach Allen (DE, Ari) — Allen’s snaps and production have risen since J.J. Watt got injured. He’s gone from a 40-60% player with 1-2 tackles to an 80% player with 5-6 tackles. Allen and Chandler Jones have a good matchup this week. The Seahawks have been a top-10 offense for opposing DLs.

Avoids:

Budda Baker (S, Ari) — Baker’s disappointing season (at least for fantasy) isn't likely to turn around this week. Not only has Baker’s role shifted from playing close to the action, but he’s also dealing with a heel injury and is questionable this week. To make matters worse, the Seahawks are just 31st in FPG to DBs this season.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

S Budda Baker, Ari - heel

DT Corey Peters, Ari - shoulder

DE Kerry Hyder, Sea - calf

CB D.J. Reed, Sea - groin

S Jamal Adams, Sea - groin

Pit @ LAC

Targets:

Kyzir White (LB, LAC) — White has survived the return of Kenneth Murray, who came off IR for Week 10. With Murray back in the lineup, White remained the primary LB, posting 12 tackles (8 solo) on a 97% snap share last week. White looks poised to continue his streak of at least 8 tackles in four straight games, as the Steelers are the #3 offense for opposing LB production.

Avoids:

Cameron Heyward (DT, Pit) — This is about lowered expectations rather than a call to sit a top-5 DL. The Chargers run it at a bottom-10 rate and give up a bottom-5 amount of fantasy production to DLs. Heyward has been one of the top tackle producers for DLs, so if anyone can overcome this deficit, it’s him. But he’ll need some luck this week to get enough opportunities to post his usual DL1 production.

Injuries:

OUT

CB Joe Haden, Pit - foot

OLB T.J. Watt, Pit - hip/knee

DOUBTFUL

DT Linval Joseph, LAC - shoulder

S Alohi Gilman, LAC - quadricep

NYG @ TB

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Leonard Williams (DT, NYG) — One of my favorite weekly plays has an uphill battle this week. In terms of a tackle floor, Tom Brady just wants to throw it all the time. So, he throws it all the time. No one runs it less than Tampa Bay. In terms of sacks, no team allows fewer sacks to DLs than Tampa Bay. If Lenny Willy posts dud-like numbers this week, just shake it off and pull a Bill Belichick: we’re on to Week 12.

Injuries:

OUT

S Logan Ryan, NYG - COVID

QUESTIONABLE

LB Lorenzo Carter, NYG - ankle

DT Vita Vea, TB - knee

DL Steve McLendon, TB - NIR

OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder/hand

Justin has been holding down the IDP fort for John Hansen and the crew since 2015. In addition to projections and articles, he also hosts an all-IDP podcast called “The IDP Corner,” where he is joined by his fellow FantasyPoints IDP contributor Thomas Simons, along with other special guests.

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