Paul Kelly's Conference Championship Props

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Paul Kelly's Conference Championship Props

Regular Season Player Props Record: 75-47 (61%) Playoffs Player Props Record: 4-6 (40%)

We caught a couple of bad beats last week that would have changed a 2-4 week into a 4-2 week. A. J. Dillon was cruising towards an easy over and double-digit carries against the 49ers but then got knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a rib injury. We came up just two yards short of winning Devante Adams’ receiving yards prop in that same game. No use crying about it as we have won our fair share of close ones this season too. Let’s get back up on the horse this week and cash some winning tickets!

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for the championship round followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. CIN
RUSH YARDSPROPDISCREPODDSSITE
EDWARDS-HELAIREOVER 37.522.5-110CAESARS

CEH looked explosive last week and gained 60 yards on the ground against the Bills despite carrying just seven times and playing only 30% of the snaps in his first game back from injury. He should shoulder a bit more of the rushing load this week and the Chiefs are 7-point home favorites which could mean a positive gamescript for him. The Bengals run defense has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in four straight games and in six of their last seven including letting up 155 rushing yards in this matchup in Week 17. The only potential fly in the ointment could be the return of Darrel Williams but he likely plays behind both Jerick McKinnon and CEH this week.

Ja’Marr Chase @ KC
REC YARDSPROPDISCREPODDSSITE
CHASEOVER 83.531.5-114FD

This is an unusually large receiving yards discrepancy for a stud player who is on a roll and who blew up in this matchup earlier this year. Everybody remembers Chase's huge 11/266/3 statline against the Chiefs in Week 17 and he's stayed white hot since. He's now gained at least 109 yards in his last four full games (he barely played in Week 18). We won with Chase last week and I’m sticking with him here.

Joe Mixon @ KC
RECEPTIONSPROPDISCREPODDSSITE
MIXONOVER 3.51.5-160DK

He's caught 4+ balls in four straight games including a 6-grab performance last week. The Bengals are 7-point road dogs this week so he could be poised to be on the receiving end of a bunch of checkdowns.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for the championship round. Happy Wagering!

PLAYERPROPLINEDISCREPODDSSITE
STAFFORDPASS YDSUNDER 282.542.5-120MGM
CEHRUSH YDSOVER 37.522.5-110CAESARS
AKERSRUSH YDSUNDER 61.517.5-115MGM
AKERSRUSH ATTSUNDER 17.54-130CAESARS
CHASEREC YDSOVER 83.531.5-114FD
KUPPREC YDSOVER 99.515.5-114FD
MIXONRECEPTIONSOVER 3.51.5-160DK
SAMUELTOTAL YARDSUNDER 97.522.5-114FD
AKERSTOTAL YARDSUNDER 83.518.5-115DK

Paul is an award winning radio programmer and air talent whose broadcasting career started in 1994. He's been a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio since 2010, frequently working with Founder John Hansen.

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