Christmas Day Advanced Matchups

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Christmas Day Advanced Matchups

With the release of Matrix 4 on Wednesday, let’s take a venture into the unknown. In my opinion, one of the most intriguing philosophical theories that has been presented “recently” is the possibility that we are living within a simulation. Rather than digging into all of the details, just check out the documentary A Glitch in the Matrix on Hulu. I’m an open-minded individual. When satisfactory evidence is presented in support of a theory and I am unable to refute it, my only course of action is to admit it to be a possibility. And, when some of the top IQs in the world (Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Neil deGrasse Tyson (video below), Mark Zuckerberg, etc.) all come to the exact same conclusion, we, ladies and gentlemen, may be entering some very scary territory.

The odds that the reality we comprehend, per Musk, holds either a billion to one chance that it is a simulation — an insanely frightening thought — or, from deGrasse Tyson’s view, a far more consumable 50:50. As Musk breaks it down: “either we are going to create simulations that are indistinguishable from reality (or) civilization will cease to exist.” To put that another way, our technological advances have progressed so quickly that the only thing that could stand in the way of creating such simulations is literally our own destruction. It all boils down to what’s referred to as the “base reality.” Earth, December, Year 2021 can be one of three things:

  1. Base Reality
  2. A simulation within the base reality that has already continued in the creation of another simulation indistinguishable from reality
  3. A simulation within the base reality that has yet to advance technologically to the point of creating another simulation indistinguishable from reality

According to deGrasse Tyson’s research, he believes we might be able to eliminate the second option. Such an elimination would cut the billion to one odds down to one to one – either Option 1 (or) Option 3:

If you have the stomach for it, forcing some extremely deep thinking, Hawking’s posthumous explanation reinforces the theory. The scariest reality concerning Hawking is that, no matter how unbelievable his theories might have been at first perceived, none have ever been disproven.

Detractors of Zuckerberg sit around every corner. But he undoubtedly possesses one of the preeminent intellects in this Age of Information. And his contributions to simulation theory are quite unique. Zuckerberg has taken a lot of heat in the past for capturing Facebook user tendencies for use in his own ventures. And, as the article suggests, Zuckerberg plans to “to get inside your brain and access your thoughts directly” within the next 50 years. I’ll stand aside to allow the reader to discover the parallels between simulation theory and those future expectations.

Before we go any further, allow me to be clear, as a man of faith in a higher power, I view this theory as no more blasphemous than the theory of evolution. We all have a choice to make in deciding where we invest our beliefs.

However, you might be asking yourself, how does all of this information have anything to do with fantasy football or DFS?

If we do live within a simulated reality – I am not suggesting that I believe we do, only admitting to it being a possibility – the trends we are able to mine from the historical data take on a new life. We’ll never be able to fully encompass all of the infinite in-game variables into an absolute DFS formula for everything. But we have begun the process toward coming as close to reaching that endgame as possible. And I do believe in every numerical ounce of my football IQ that it’s in complete loyalty toward following the process that will take us closer to discovering the result we all strive to achieve.

As always, the following chart provides the full names for the acronyms and a reference point of comparison for the defensive coverage numbers for each position group through Week 15:

To magnify their importance toward processing the matchup data, familiarity with these abbreviations are key. The full names of the data points in the headers of the data table above will not be written out in full within the specific matchups. You’ll find the following acronyms frequently used whenever referencing defensive coverage statistics:

  • Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap = YPCS

  • Fantasy Points Allowed Per Coverage Snap = FP/CS

  • Air Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap = AY/CS

  • Targeted Passer Rating (i.e., Passer Rating on Targets into Coverage) = TPR

Offensive abbreviations used when referring to the performance of QBs/RBs/WRs/TEs:

  • FPs/Dropback = FP/Db

  • FPs/Route = FP/Rt

  • FPs/Touch = FP/Tch

  • Yards/Route Run = YPRR

  • Air Yards/Attempt = AY/Att

  • Air Yards/Target = AY/Tgt

  • Yards/Target = YPT

  • Targeted Passer Rating (i.e., QB Passer Rating When Targeting Receiver) = TPR

If you’d like to learn more about/refresh yourself with each of the defensive coverage shells and other relevant schematic details mentioned throughout this series, utilize the following resources:

Fantasy Shells: Coverage Glossary

Fantasy Shells: Cover 1

Fantasy Shells: Cover 2

Fantasy Shells: Cover 3

Fantasy Shells: Cover 4

ATS Picks

*79-77 (51%); 10-6 in Week 15

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Cleveland Browns (+7.0) at Green Bay Packers
Indianapolis Colts (+1.0) at Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions (+5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers (-9.0) at Houston Texans
Los Angeles Rams (-3.0) at Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
New York Jets (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Giants (+10.0) at Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Washington Football Team (+10.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (+3.0)

Game Totals

*73-60 (55%); 9-7 in Week 15

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (Over 44.5)
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (Over 44.0)
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (Under 50.0)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Under 42.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Over 44.0)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (Over 46.0)
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (Under 49.0)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Under 43.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (Over 41.0)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 42.0)
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Under 44.0)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (Under 44.0)
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 41.5)
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Under 47.5)
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (Under 38.5)

Moneyline

*99-53 (65%); 11-5 in Week 15

San Francisco 49ers (-180) at Tennessee Titans
Green Bay Packers (-310) vs. Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts (+100) at Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons (-250) vs. Detroit Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-510) at Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals (-140) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers (-400) at Houston Texans
Los Angeles Rams (-145) at Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots (-135) vs. Buffalo Bills
New York Jets (-135) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles (-450) vs. New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks (-310) vs. Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs vs. (-365) Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos (+100) at Las Vegas Raiders
Dallas Cowboys (-475) vs. Washington Football Team
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (+150)

Matchups to Target

Jarvis Landry, CLE ($5.3K DK | $6.6K FD) vs. Chandon Sullivan, GB

As the above Tweet explains, we can count on Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry both taking the field on Christmas afternoon. And I like both in the matchup across from the Packers. Let’s just get it out of the way that there are zero concerns for any individuals on the Cleveland roster from playing on Lambeau Field with below-freezing temperatures expected on Saturday. Perhaps the most concerning factor would be the potential of a Jaire Alexander return. But it’s already been reported that Alexander will not return this week. Chandon Sullivan has been an outstanding replacement for Jaire out of the slot, but the volume Landry is going to see outweighs the downside of running around half of his routes inside his coverage.

This is far more than a volume play for Landry. He’s created 0.44 FP/Rt (13th-most) and a 119.2 TPR (12th-highest) against Cover 4 during the last three seasons. Green Bay is fielding Quarters coverage (Cover 4) at the fifth-highest rate – only the Jets have used it at a higher rate the last five weeks. But Landry’s pièce de résistance has been his pwnership of Cover 6. No other wideout has done better than Juice’s 0.63 FP/Rt, 3.85 YPRR, or collected a higher target share (30%) when defenses have used Cover 6 during the last three campaigns.

Davante Adams, GB ($9.0K DK | $8.8K FD) vs. Greedy Williams, CLE

I could’ve simply confined analysis on Davante Adams’ matchup to Final Notes or provided it with the dedicated placement it deserves. In Week 15, Aaron Rodgers sliced up what was left of the Baltimore secondary. Distributing the ball to eight different receivers, Rodgers simply didn’t need to force any extravagant volume in Adams’ direction. Don’t allow the 31-30 final score to give the impression this was a shootout. The Pack took a 31-17 lead with a little over nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. But Tyler Huntley nearly led the Ravens to a miraculous comeback after scoring on a pair of scrambles inside the 10-yard line late in the fourth.

Joe Woods has followed a dedicated rotation regimen consisting of the sixth-highest rate of Cover 3 and the highest of Cover 4. And the results from their usage the last four weeks simply cannot be argued against – 7.8 FPG to QBs which ranks third-best. Even with ‘21 first-rounder Greg Newsome II absent the last two weeks, Woods still fields a perimeter of Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Between the two, they’ve intercepted five, and deflected 15 other targets into their coverage. But all is not fresh smelling in Greedy-land. He’s releasing the 13th-highest rate of 20-plus receptions among 76 qualified outside CBs, 20th-most YPCS (1.29), 28th-most FP/CS (0.26), and eighth-most AY/CS (0.21) – indicating opposing QBs are not hesitating to attack in his direction.

Adams will go up against Williams on around half of his reps. It’s a far better matchup than Marquez Valdes-Scantling (if he plays… COVID) will face across from Ward. However, Tae also attacks the slot on around a third of his routes. And inside corner depth is a massive concern for Cleveland with Troy Hill sidelined. Further complicating the issue, while the Dawg Pound will get several key players back in time for Week 16, hopes of Newsome returning from the concussion protocol were dashed when he was placed on the COVID list Wednesday. So, we are likely to see strong safety M.J. Stewart, once again, pulling double-duty in nickel packages 🤤. Adams has constructed 0.58 FP/Rt against Cover 3 (fifth-most) and 0.51 FP/Rt (sixth-most) when working in opposition to Cover 4 the last three seasons.

Matchups to Avoid

Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE ($4.4K DK | $5.8K FD) vs. Rasul Douglas, GB

With Darius Slay’s coverage metrics taking a hit in Week 15, a window of opportunity has opened up for Rasul Douglas to draw some consideration for Comeback Player of the Year. Allow me to remind you that, in the span of 15 months, Douglas was released by the Eagles, Raiders, and Texans. And he lingered on the Cardinals’ practice squad for over a month before Green Bay swiped him away. The very next month, he captured the game-winning interception to hand that Arizona squad it’s first defeat of the season. He’s currently locking down the right sideline for the Packers with 0.85 YPCS (17th-fewest), 0.20 FP/CS (17th-fewest), and a 57.7 TPR (third-lowest).

In addition to working against Douglas on half of his reps, we have little from Donovan Peoples-Jones against either Cover 4 or 6. On 58 routes against those schemes this season, DPJ has formed a 3/114/1 receiving line. He torched Eli Apple in Cover 4 on a corner-skinny post combo for a 60-yard TD in Week 9. That leaves 2/52/0 on the remainder of his 57 routes. The only 20-plus yard TD reception Rasul has tolerated this season was a 54-yard slant-and-go to Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 12. Assuming Douglas avoids adding another in coverage of DPJ, we’ll need a team-leading target share for Peoples-Jones to offset the coverage quality.

Final notes on Cleveland

As mentioned, the GPP potential for Baker Mayfield ($5.6K/$6.7K) is in full effect for Week 16. While Green Bay was just shredded by Tyler Huntley on the ground, accrediting the most FPG to QBs the last four weeks (25.4) is also fueled by gift-wrapping 16.5 FPG through the air (fifth-most). Mayfield is registering 0.36 FP/Db (ninth-most) against Cover 4 and 0.38 FP/Db (seventh-most) across from Cover 6 the last three seasons. In addition, he’s connected on eight TDs vs. three INTs combined against those schemes.

It only cost me a few dollars devoted to a single large-field GPP lineup; however, it was still surprising to see D'Ernest Johnson ($4.4K/$5.9K) only provided with a single carry last week. Instead, Nick Chubb ($7.5K/$7.6K) nearly handled the entire backfield share with 96% of the carries. Kareem Hunt is likely to be labeled with a doubtful tag this week. I could only find five other examples where a RB took on a 90+% carry share and at least 20 rushing attempts in a game this season:

  1. Dalvin Cook: 91% share, 20/61/1 rushing line in Week 1 at Cincinnati
  2. Derrick Henry: 91%, 20/143/3 line in Week 6 vs. Buffalo
  3. D’Ernest Johnson: 95% share, 22/146/1 line in Week 7 vs. Denver
  4. Henry: 90%, 28/68/0 line in Week 8 at Indianapolis
  5. Sony Michel: 95%, 20/79/0 line in Week 14 at Arizona

If Chubb is going to take that level of a bell-cow role, we are going to be forced to get him into some lineups. The Packers’ pack – pun intended – a top-15 run defense, but are allowing 4.8 YPC (eighth-most), a 29.7% rushing first down rate (the highest), and 2.07 goal-to-go carries/game (11th-most). Even if he’s on the field for another 80% of team routes, Rashard Higgins ($3.0K/$4.8K) is not to be trusted. First of all, he’ll have to deal with Eric Stokes who, while he hasn’t been a top-20 corner, he has been a top-25 😝 corner this season. And Higgins hasn’t done himself any favors, only averaging 0.186 FP/Rt this season (104th out of 110 qualified WRs).

If the Browns lose this week – which I am betting they will, it will be time to get the youngsters heavy reps. They only enter Week 16 with a 40% chance to earn a playoff bid. Anthony Schwartz ($3.0K/$4.7K) hasn’t been any better than Higgins, but a kid with an invested third-rounder simply must be exhaustively evaluated. If qualified, Demetric Felton’s ($4.0K/$4.6K) 0.497 FP/Rt would rank him eighth-best. You’ll need a mystic in your corner to predict the most production out of the Austin Hooper ($3.8K/$5.3K), David Njoku ($3.1K/$5.2K), and Harrison Bryant ($2.5K/$4.5K) group.

Final notes on Green Bay

This is actually not my favorite spot for Aaron Rodgers ($7.6K/$8.3K). Whenever Myles Garrett is roaming the edge, we know trouble is lurking on every snap. Oddly enough, Mr. Rodgers’ FP/Db declines by 25% against Cover 3. I’d be out of my mind to project Cleveland to even slow Rodgers down enough to keep him from scoring FPs inside the top-15 QBs. But I can reasonably project that he’ll fall short of reaching top-six numbers against a defense limiting QBs to the third-fewest FPG through the air (7.8) over the last four weeks. Enough for me to fade his QB2/QB6 pricing.

Another factor working against Rodgers is Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5.1K/$5.9K) dealing with Denzel Ward. In the midst of a tremendous season, Ward is holding his coverage to 0.79 YPCS (12th-fewest), 0.19 FP/CS (13th-fewest), 0.09 YP/CS (seventh-fewest – massive QB respect), and a 71.1 TPR (10th-lowest). That is, of course, if MVS is even able to clear the COVID list.

If this were a 50:50 timeshare, I’d feel much better about taking a stab at AJ Dillon ($5.8K/$6.2K) with his size-to-speed combo opposing this stout run defense. Now that Aaron Jones ($7.0K/$7.3K) has returned to top-12 RB pricing, he’ll take Dillon along for the ride to Fadeville. We might want to look in Allen Lazard’s direction ($4.1K/$5.2K) with M.J. Stewart standing in as the Browns’ primary interior corner. While his coverage numbers are decent, they are unreliable since he’s spent well over a third of his snaps at safety.

If MVS is unable to gain clearance from the COVID list in time for Saturday’s game, perhaps ‘21 third-rounder Amari Rodgers ($3.0K/$4.5K) will finally re-enter the rotation. Just don’t hold your breath. Even without Randall Cobb, it was Juwann Winfree ($3.0K/$4.5K) that played the WR4 role last week. All jokes aside, we know Marcedes Lewis ($2.6K/$4.4K) is around at this stage in his career due to his high football IQ, blocking ability, and veteran leadership. GB has been completely unable to find anything even slightly resembling the offensive impact provided by Bobby Tonyan from ‘20 third-rounder Josiah Deguara ($3.0K/$4.6K).

Matchups to Target

Michael Pittman, IND ($5.1K DK | $6.4K FD) vs. Robert Alford, ARI

Is it time for Arizona to be concerned? Consecutive defeats, including a 30-12 embarrassment to Detroit last week, and permitting the sixth-most FPG to opposing offenses in the last four weeks (94.2). Robert Alford missed Week 15 as a member of the COVID list, forcing Byron Murphy Jr. to spend the majority of his week on the outside. This is going to be a nice spot for Michael Pittman Jr. whether it’s Alford or Murphy that ends up guarding him. While the Cards have done a nice job to limit opposing QBs to the fourth-fewest FPG (15.2), the cracks in their armor are giving way to a particular vulnerability.

Arizona’s secondary has been pushed into the forefront as one of the NFLs most lenient to WRs production in the league. They are giving WRs the go-ahead for 36.7 FPG (seventh-most), 1.36 TDs/game (the most), and 2.0 red zone touches/game (third-most). Those numbers will be a concern when the playoffs begin. However, their level of dilapidation during the last four weeks against wideouts must be chronicled in bullet-form:

  • The most receptions/game (16.7) 😎

  • The most receiving YPG (187.0) 😎

  • The most TDs/game (2.0) 😎

  • The most FPG (47.9) 😎

And the 56.1 FPG they’ve allowed the last two weeks is 22% more than second on the list.

Vance Joseph has been very sneaky with his shell rotation this season. But the one scheme we can rely on seeing at a competitive rate on a weekly basis is their base Cover 3. It’s only being used at the 13th-highest rate, but they are using it at the fifth-highest rate in the last six weeks. And they just put it on the field on more than two-thirds of their defensive snaps last week. It just so happens that Pittman has manufactured 0.44 FP/Rt (15th-most), 2.31 YPRR (16th-most), and 11.7 YPT (seventh-most) against Cover 3 since entering the league. On 21% of his career routes, MPJ has generated 28% of receptions, 32% of his yardage, and 33% of his TDs across from a three-high zone.

Christian Kirk, ARI ($5.6K DK | $7.2K FD) vs. Kenny Moore II, IND

Trusting in A.J. Green stepping up last week was perhaps my most significant regret. What eats at me the most isn’t the result of utilizing weak analysis to put me on Green. What eats at me is that so many arrows pointed me toward AJG, and it took no-huddle, desperation-mode due to being down by three TDs to the Lions to collect every bit of his 4/64/0 line. As stated last week, I was fully aware that Christian Kirk would be the Cards’ most dangerous option against Cover 6. But I also knew coming in, with Detroit using the 11th-highest rate of Cover 6, that Kirk would need to hit big on one of what would likely be less than 10 routes against the scheme to make a difference. Kirk managed a 24-yard reception across from the shell that mashes together Cover 2 and Cover 4 elements.

CK13’s big play came on an all-out blitz (Cover 0) that resulted in a 26-yard TD strike with A.J. Parker in coverage. But the rest (4/27/0 on five targets) was essentially collected against the Lions’ Cover 2. Every one of those four receptions were collected on quick-hitting curls. The 4/27/0 line may not seem like much, but it points toward Kirk recognizing what the defense is giving up, and possibly seeing enough “filler” receptions to establish himself as Murray’s go-to while DeAndre Hopkins is sidelined. Kirk is in luck since Indianapolis is featuring the eighth-highest rate of Cover 2 and 10th-highest of Cover 6. Furthermore, I’m expecting the Cardinals will take their third-straight defeat in Week 16. Sliding the late, pass-heavy card forward.

The Colts are shutting down opposing QBs and WRs. And only the Broncos and Patriots have allowed fewer rushing TDs. It’s a tricky matchup, for sure. That stated, Rock Ya-Sin was just placed on the COVID list, and Kirk avoided being forced to do additional work on the outside in the post-Nuk world. That’ll keep Kirk inside the press-zone coverage of Kenny Moore II on upwards of three-fourths of his routes. Among 37 qualified nickelbacks, Moore has permitted 1.30 YPCS (10th-most), 0.30 FP/CS (fourth-most), while being targeted at the highest rate among all slot CBs this season.

Final notes on Indianapolis

We saw a glimpse at the ceiling for Carson Wentz ($5.4K/$7.2K) in the Indy offense against the Buccaneers in Week 12. And we were reminded of his basement floor directing an offense running the ball at the fourth-highest rate in a blowout (11.1 FPs in a 31-0 shutout of Houston) and in a playoff-quality matchup (7.0 FPs last week vs. New England). It is very unlikely that Indianapolis’ defense will ghost Arizona’s attack or that the Colts’ offense will face a smothering pass defense anything close to what the Pats brought to Lucas Oil Stadium. I’m perfectly comfortable projecting a competitive Cover 3 rate from the Cardinals. But entirely uncomfortable projecting anything of substance from a defense averaging top-16 rates of Cover 1, 4, and 6. Shutting down any interest in Wentz this week, the Cards are using the seventh-lowest rate of Cover 2. No, thank you.

We need 26.4/26.3 FPs from Jonathan Taylor ($8.8K/$10.5K) with RB1/RB1 pricing. Guess what? It’s a sound investment with one of the clearest avenues toward a profit that you’ll find this week. Until he provides a reason to consider otherwise, JT is/has been a weekly staple in my Cash/Single-Entry lineup. We need 12.0/13.0 FPs from Nyheim Hines ($4.0K/$5.2K) to justify his addition. He’s hit for double-digit FPs once in his last 11 games (9%).

It sure seems as though Frank Reich and Marcus Brady are toying with my emotions. I remain steadfast in my belief that Mo Alie-Cox ($2.5K/$4.7K) possesses the traits to develop into at least a top-10 TE. But the Colts have featured Jack Doyle ($2.7K/$5.0K) and have even put ‘21 fourth-rounder Kylen Granson on the field at MAC’s expense. When all hopes had vanished that Alie-Cox would see the field enough to get going, they featured him over Doyle, but in a game against the top TE-defending defense in the game (Patriots). Even if it happens again this week, it’ll be against the second-best TE defending squad in the league.

We have zero evidence in support of any attention being paid to the following wideouts expected to see the field this week:

  • T.Y. Hilton ($3.9K/$5.4K)

  • Zach Pascal ($3.5K/$5.2K)

  • Ashton Dulin ($3.4K/$4.8K)

Final notes on Arizona

Kyler Murray ($7.4K/$8.7K) may end up doing enough on the ground to hit value, but his FP/Db has plummeted by 35% against Cover 2 during his career. One of the least generous run defenses to TD scoring is not a welcoming atmosphere for James Conner ($6.2K/$7.1K) ownership. A sliver of potential has emerged the last four weeks to backs similar to Chase Edmonds ($4.8K/$5.8K). Just keep the investment within reason.

If Ya-Sin is unable to clear the COVID list, we may be forced to take another stab at A.J. Green ($5.1K/$5.9K). At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Green will have a considerable size advantage over the 5-foot-10, 170-pound Isaiah Rodgers, Ya-Sin’s likely replacement. Now that I’m writing him up, I immediately regret not featuring Zach Ertz ($5.0K/$5.8K) as a Target. He was on the field for 91% of passing plays and drew a 24% target share. If we can count on those rates without Hopkins the rest of the season, Ertz will ascend to elite status. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Indy is kindly distributing the following to opposing TEs:

  • 6.43 receptions/game (second-most)

  • 68.1 receiving YPG (the most)

  • 0.57 TD/game (fourth-most)

  • 1.29 red zone touches/game (the most)

  • 17.0 FPG (third-most)

After only extracting an 11/74/0 receiving line over the last four weeks, combined, from Xavier Rhodes’ coverage, we have a difficult decision to make with Antoine Wesley ($3.0K/$4.9K). We know he’s going to be on the field for 80+% of passing plays, all of them inside Rhodes’ coverage, and that he’ll see around a 10-15% target share. We only need 9.0 FPs on DK with WR129 pricing, so that’s where my attention will be focused in GPPs with Wesley this week. Only time will tell if another empty game from Rondale Moore ($4.0K/$5.1K) (3/9/0 on 16 routes) will result in Andy Isabella ($3.0K/$4.6K) reemerging from the rotation wasteland. Isabella (11 routes) was featured over Moore (five) during the second half last week.

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.

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