Baltimore Ravens (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (1-1, 0-1-1), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Ravens Stats and Trends
Baltimore is 12-4 toward unders in its last 16 games.
Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback with touchdowns of 75+ yards as a runner and passer. He also broke Michael Vick’s QB record with his 11th 100-yard rushing game. He owns the league’s highest aDOT (12.0) through two weeks and he’s trailing only Jalen Hurts in YPA at 9.0. Jackson has posted 412/3 passing and 116/2 rushing in his two career matchups against Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
Mark Andrews saw 37.9% of Lamar’s attempts in Week 2, turning his 11 targets into 9/104/1 receiving. He owns an aDOT of 12.0 yards through two weeks, which is bested only by Logan Thomas. The Patriots limited Pat Freiermuth to 4/22 receiving but he did find the end zone. Andrews posted 7/61 receiving against the Patriots back in 2020.
Rashod Bateman showed some major jets on his 75-yard touchdown, hitting 21.5 mph on the catch-and-run score against the Dolphins. He’s scored on two long touchdown strikes to open the season but he otherwise has 4/37 receiving on 10 targets. He’s also run a route on just 72% of Lamar’s dropbacks to open the season, which is a bit concerning for a #1 WR. The Patriots are allowing the 14th-fewest FPG (33.4) to WRs so far.
J.K. Dobbins is more than a full year removed from his ACL injury, but the Ravens have yet to give him full clearance for game action after yet another absence in Week 2. Dobbins was a full participant in all three practices leading up to Week 2, but the Ravens are bringing him along at a slow pace either out of extreme caution — Baltimore’s O-line is a bit of a mess — or because his body simply isn’t ready for football at the highest level. Baltimore’s rushing attack certainly needs a shot in the arm with Kenyan Drake, Mike Davis, and Justice Hill combining for a miserable 29/74 rushing and 2.6 YPC through the first two games. The Patriots are allowing just 2.9 YPC to RBs so far.
Brolley’s Patriots Stats and Trends
The Patriots haven’t covered a spread in their last four games.
New England has played over the total in its last six home games.
Mac Jones completed 21/35 passes for 252 yards (7.2 YPA), one TD, and one INT in their victory over the Steelers in Week 2. He has finished with fewer than 14 FP in both of his starts to open the season, but at least he looked healthy in Week 2 after suffering a back injury in the season opener. Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Flacco have combined for 778 passing yards against the Ravens to open the season.
Jakobi Meyers paced the Patriots with a whopping 13 targets (37.1% share) against the Steelers, which he turned into 9/95 receiving in a victory in Week 2. It was just his fifth game with 75+ yards and he still has just two touchdowns on 267 career targets. The Ravens have allowed by far a league-high 22.5 receptions per game to WRs.
Nelson Agholor stepped up last week with DeVante Parker, Hunter Henry, and Jonnu Smith each failing to catch a pass last week. He caught all six of his targets (17.1% share) for 110 yards, including a pivotal 44-yard touchdown in a jump-ball situation just before halftime. Agholor played on just 50% of the snaps with the Patriots heavily rotating in Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Kendrick Bourne behind him. The Ravens just gave up plenty of big plays to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last week, and Agholor is their best hope to beat them deep this week. Henry has been a TD-or-bust option since landing with the Patriots but at least Tyler Conklin and Mike Gesicki have each scored against the Ravens to open the year.
With the Patriots nursing a three-point lead in the fourth quarter last week, they killed the final 6:33 remaining on the clock with their running game. Damien Harris has been New England’s top back through the first two weeks despite Rhamondre Stevenson owning the better snap share (62% to 40%) in Week 2. Harris posted 15/71/1 rushing (4.7 YPC) and he caught both of his targets for 16 yards and 16.7 FP, but he left grabbing his knee on New England’s final non-kneeldown play of the game. His status will need to be closely monitored this week with the Patriots already down Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR), and Stevenson could be in line for a bell-cow type of role if Harris is unable to play against the Ravens in Week 3. He’s off to a slow start with 16/72 rushing (4.2 YPC) and 3/6 receiving through two games, but his uptick in playing time against the Steelers could be an indicator of more fantasy production to come. The Ravens are giving up 5.1 YPC to RBs through two games.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Plays per game: 10th
Pass: 13th | Run: 20th
Plays per game: 22nd
Pass: 6th | Run: 27th
The Ravens got off to a good start offensively but had to watch their defense get waxed in the second-half by Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle last week. I’d have a lot more confidence in them playing in their second-straight shootout if they were playing literally anyone else besides the Patriots.
Through two games, the Patriots have played extremely slow on offense and both of their contests have scored 27 and 31 combined points. The Patriots have 19 possessions on offense so far. Just four of those drives have ended in a score (21.1%), which is the third-lowest rate in the league. I’m not betting on any Patriot game to be a shootout until we see something explosive from this offense.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Here’s more on Meyers, from Scott Barrett in the Week 3 XFP Report, which obviously shows it’s a big loss if he can’t playt:
Jakobi Meyers has led New England in target share in each of his last 10 healthy games. He’s seen 8 or more targets in 7 of his last 8 games. Over his last 7 games, he averages 16.4 XFP/G (~WR12) and 14.2 FPG (~WR25)… Ultimately, Meyers profiles as the ultimate DFS cash-play – his floor is death/taxes-levels of reliable, but his ceiling is claustrophobia-inducing. But, hey, who knows, with a little bit more touchdown luck he could very well be “a thing.”