If you caught the CFB Player Props livestream last night, I promised you more under plays for Week 9. We have three that we feel very strongly about below — featuring a potential quarterback competition still ongoing in late October, an inept Kentucky offense, and a South Carolina passing game that is dealing with a surplus of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Let’s dive in!
Ja’Lynn Polk Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)
WR, Washington
Perfect opportunity for a bounce-back performance from the Washington offense after floundering a week ago against Arizona State, scoring a season-low 15 points. Stanford is the worst defense in the Pac-12, allowing 37 PPG and just one spot ahead of Colorado at defending the pass, giving up over 315 yards per game through the air. As you’d expect, receivers are flourishing against the Cardinal, as Stanford allows the most fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers. I have Ja’Lynn Polk at 98 receiving yards this week, and that is with fellow receiver Jalen McMillan included in the projections. McMillan has not played in three games and is probable for Saturday, but how much will he be needed in his first game back, with Washington as a 26.5-point favorite? Polk has cleared this mark in all but one game this season.
Caleb Williams Over 284.5 Passing Yards (PrizePicks)
QB, USC
Assuming the spirits are still high enough on the USC roster after losing two straight games and essentially being eliminated from both the College Football Playoff and Pac-12 title race, I’m expecting a 300+ passing day from Williams in a get-right opportunity. The Cal defense ranks 121st in pass D success rate and is allowing the third-highest QB rating to opposing quarterbacks in the Pac-12. The Trojans are 19th nationally in pass play percentage (56.2%), and the Vegas totals indicate a potential shootout game script sitting at 66.5. Cal is a double-digit underdog, but an implied team total of 28 points should force Williams to play the entirety of the game.
Ethan Garbers Under 262.5 Passing Yards (Underdog)
QB, UCLA
Chip Kelly marches to his own beat and does not care about any outside noise. That was clear as day last week with it being announced an hour ahead of kickoff that Ethan Garbers would be getting the starting nod over 5-star freshman Dante Moore. It came out after the game that it was not performance-related, as Moore was dealing with an injury which led to Garbers getting the nod against Stanford. While Garbers did play-mistake free football, he only threw for 240 yards against what is statistically one of the worst pass defenses in all of college football. Same scenario this week with Garbers facing Colorado, but there is a better than 0% chance that Kelly could pull the plug and go back to Moore should there be any struggles on Saturday. To add another layer, Kent State transfer Collin Schlee is finally healthy this season and could potentially play on Saturday as well. I have a 244-yard projection for Garbers this week, and that is with him playing the entirety of the game, which is far from a guarantee.
Tayvion Robinson Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)
WR, Kentucky
To put it bluntly, the Kentucky pass offense stinks! 105th in yards per game through the air in 2023, and that number drops to 130.5 when strictly looking at SEC matchups. Robinson, the team’s starting slot receiver, has gone under 25 receiving yards in each of the last four games and ran a season-low 15 routes against Missouri last week. Seems like he might’ve been in the doghouse after dropping two passes the week prior against Georgia. Kentucky’s opponent this week, Tennessee, is fifth nationally in pass D success rate and seventh overall in yards allowed through the air. Kentucky is coming off a bye, and this line hasn’t moved much through the course of the week, but the trends over the last month in SEC play all indicate this should be an easy under play.
Spencer Rattler Under 244.5 Passing Yards (Prizepicks)
QB, South Carolina
Let’s start with the South Carolina side here. Antwane Wells, the team’s leading receiver in 2022, is out. This year’s leading receiver, Xavier Legette, was deemed questionable by head coach Shane Beamer on Thursday. Opening day starting wideout Ahmarean Brown has already been ruled out. That would leave the Gamecocks with two backups to begin the year starting at receiver on Saturday — O’Mega Blake, who has just 15 receptions on the season, and a true freshman in Nyck Harbor. We like our odds here for Rattler going under with a makeshift receiving corps going on the road, after losing three-straight games, facing a Texas A&M defense that ranks 14th in pass D success rate.
Bonus Selections
South Carolina RB Mario Anderson under 17.5 receiving yards
Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis under 152.5 passing yards
Kansas TE Mason Fairchild under 37.5 receiving yards
Clemson WR Tyler Brown over 50.5 receiving yards
