The Saturday Night slate is filled with seven top 25 teams in the most recent playoff committee Top 25. We get a top-10 matchup between Georgia and Ole Miss. Can Ole Miss knock off #2 Georgia? #7 Texas needs a win against TCU to remain in the playoff hunt. #1 Ohio State gets a matchup vs a struggling Michigan State. A lot of playoff implications in this slate. But more importantly, DFS implications. Let’s get to it.
Against the Spread Picks
Duke (+14.5) vs North Carolina
Georiga vs Ole Miss (Under 58)
Jayden Daniels, LSU vs Florida (DK: $10.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 67 | Implied: 340.75)
You are going to need to monitor the status of Jayden Daniels, but it sounds like he’s a go Saturday night, and it could be hard to keep him out of at least some of your lineups. He’s expensive but also projects 4 points higher than the next QB on this slate. This is still a good value.
Daniels averages 35.5 points on the year and has four 38+ weeks on the season. He’s been unstoppable. 27 passing and 6 rushing touchdowns. He is throwing for 310 yards a game and rushing for 76. He also gets to go against a Florida defense that allows 4 points above quarterbacks average on the season. Looks like another week Daniels is a top QB.
Graham Mertz, Florida vs LSU (DK: $7.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 67 | Implied: 26.25)
I never thought I’d be writing up Graham Mertz for DFS, but here we are. Why do I like Mertz this week? This LSU defense has been the kindest to QB1s on this slate. They are giving up 24.1 points a game to QB1s. They’ve allowed three top-3 quarterbacks and two more top-30 quarterbacks. Three times this year, a quarterback has thrown for over 340 yards against them, and in five games, they’ve given up multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks.
But can Mertz do that? He did throw for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns against Georgia. He also threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns against South Carolina. He doesn’t bring anything to the run game, but he has seen the end zone 3 times on rush attempts so, while unlikely, there is a chance of a rush touchdown. At his price on this slate, I like fitting him in against this defense.
Carson Beck, Georgia vs Mississippi (DK: $8.4K | FD: $K | O/U: 58 | Implied: 34.5)
Carson Beck feels like a safer, cheaper option at QB on the slate if you want to put some more expensive skill position players in your lineup. He has one of the highest floors on the slate and has been a top-15 quarterback two times this year. He has thrown for over 300 yards four times on the season and has five multi-touchdown games.
He’s throwing 32 passes a game which is good volume in an efficient offense. Quarterbacks haven’t had much success against this defense, but I think we are looking at a top-10 matchup where Georgia is going to be looking to impress the playoff committee.
Drake Maye, North Carolina vs Duke (DK: $9.4K | FD: $K | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Quinn Ewers, Texas vs TCU (DK: $8.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 53.5 | Implied: 31.75) - If healthy
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State vs Michigan State (DK: $6.9K | FD: $K | O/U: 47 | Implied: 39.25)
TreVeyon Henderson started the year off slow, then missed some time with an injury, but since his return two weeks ago, he has two 30-point performances. Against Wisconsin, he had 24 rush attempts for 162 yards and a touchdown, then the next week, he ran for 128 and a touchdown on 22 attempts. Also worth noting is that in the 3 games he was out, Ohio State averaged 36 pass attempts a game. Since his return, they are throwing it less, at just 29 pass attempts. So they are relying on the run game with him in the lineup.
Omarion Hampton, North Carolina vs Duke (DK: $K | FD: $K | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Omarion Hampton went over 1,000 yards on the season last week in his game against Campbell. He now has 1,067 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 175 attempts. He has four straight games rushing for over 100 yards and twice scored two touchdowns in that stretch. Three top-15 finishes as well in that stretch. He’s one of the hottest RBs in the last four weeks.
Duke is no walk in the park. They typically hold running backs below their average, but when a team gives their RB1 at least 17 carries, they tend to do pretty well against this defense, averaging 22 points a game. The RB1 has scored 26 points three times when they have at least 17 attempts. And guess what? Hampton averages 19 attempts a game.
Jonathon Brooks, Texas vs TCU (DK: $7.7K | FD: $K | O/U: 55 | Implied: 33.25)
We’ve got another 1,000-yard rusher on the slate with Jonathon Brooks! He has 1,034 yards and eight touchdowns on 165 attempts. He has been a top-25 running back in 5 of his 9 games this year. He has rushed for over 100 yards 5 times. But also has two games with 98 and 99 rushing yards.
What I really like about Brooks, though, is they utilize him in the passing game a bit. Over the last four games, he averages almost 5 targets a week. Pair that with his 20 rushing attempts and he is giving us 25 opportunities a week.
Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma vs West Virginia (DK: $4.2K | FD: $K | O/U: 58 | Implied: 34.75)
I have yet to figure out the Oklahoma backfield, but with some of the more expensive plays, I need some discount guys, and Sawchuk popped on my trend report over the last 3 weeks. He only has 193 rushing yards, but he has a touchdown in each of those three games. Pair that with this WVU defense that gives up 17.5 points to RB1s on the year, and this could be a productive day for Sawchuck.
Tawee Walker would be the next option, but he is a little bit more expensive. He has 251 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three games. So a little bit better production, but Sawchuk outperformed him last week. Do they ride the hot hand? Sawchuk was in on double the run plays last week with 3 runs of 10 yards or more.
Quinshon Judkins, Ole Miss vs Georgia (DK: $6.7K | FD: $K | O/U: 58 | Implied: 23.5)
Le’Veon Moss, Texas A&M vs Mississippi St (DK: $4.9K | FD: $K | O/U: 43 | Implied: 30.5)
Daijun Edwards, Georgia vs Ole Miss (DK: $6.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 58 | Implied: 34.5)
CJ Baxter, Texas vs TCU (DK: $4.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 55 | Implied: 33.25)
Eugene Wilson, Florida vs LSU (DK: $6.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 67 | Implied: 26.25)
Eugene Wilson is averaging almost 10 targets a game over the last four games and has a touchdown in three of the four games. He has yet to break 100 yards receiving in a game, but he is such a highly targeted player it’s hard to ignore him.
Wilson has also outperformed Ricky Pearsall from a fantasy standpoint in three of the last four games as well. Pearsall is the more expensive option on the slate this week. Plus, we’ve seen what this LSU defense is made of. They allow 18.3 points a game to WR1 and are giving up 50 points total to receivers.
Devin Carter, West Virginia vs Oklahoma (DK: $5.0K | FD: $K | O/U: 58 | Implied: 23.25)
Hang with me here for a few minutes while we talk about Devin Carter. Over the last four games since they moved Carter to the slot, he has been targeted 27 times which is double the targets to the next closest WVU receiver. In Weeks 7 and 8, West Virginia was either in a back-and-forth game or playing from behind. In those two games, he had 18 total targets and had 170 receiving yards and a touchdown. This feels like a play-from-behind game.
One other thing I wanted to look at was how slot receivers had done against Oklahoma so far this year. The answer: pretty good. They are giving up 5 points above their average to slot receivers. Only one guy has scored less than his season average, and he was from Arkansas State. Slot guys are averaging 17 points a game against this defense.
Ladd McConkey, Georgia vs Mississippi (DK: $5.8K | FD: $K | O/U: 58 | Implied: 34.5)
Very rarely am I ever considering a Georgia receiver, but Ladd McConkey is one of the better-trending receivers on the slate. He’s got 13 receptions on 15 targets that went for 230 yards and a touchdown over the last two games.
Ole Miss is allowing 101 yards a game and just under 1 touchdown to the outside WR1 they have faced so far this year. They are also giving up 3 points above the oWR1 average on the season. This feels like a good matchup for McConkey, given the matchup and his recent production.
Marvin Harrison, Ohio State vs Michigan State (DK: $8.9K | FD: $K | O/U: 47 | Implied: 39.25)
Marvin Harrison was somewhat held in check last week against Rutgers. He only had 4 receptions for 25 yards, but his two touchdowns saved his week. Prior to the slowdown at Rutgers, he had four straight 100-yard receiving games in six of the last seven games. He also has a touchdown in all but two games this year.
He has six top 30 weeks this year and only two bust weeks. He is a hair cheaper than Malik Nabers this week but actually was projected to score a little bit more. I think you want to find a way to get one of the two guys in your lineup but wanted to highlight Harrison this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. had his best game of the year vs. Penn State grabbing 11 receptions for 162 yards and a TD. He showed how he can win with his release, strength at the top of the route and at the catch point. Ohio State schemed him open a couple times too. #CFBFilmStudy pic.twitter.com/TCen5Ql1aM— Patrick Murray (@PatMurraySports) October 25, 2023
Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina vs Duke (DK: $4.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 32.25)
My last cheap option recommendation is Nesbit. I have him projected at 12.1 points this week, and for only $4.1K, he is one of the best values on the slate. Over the last three weeks, he is averaging 86 receiving yards and .6 touchdowns on 4 receptions. He is coming off a 10-target week. I don’t think we see that replicated again but just shows he is a focal point in this passing game along with Devontez Walker.
On the year, he is averaging 4.5 targets a game and has four total touchdowns. So if you are in need of a cheap option, Nesbit is a guy with five total 13+ games on the year and three straight over 13 points. Tight ends can always be a bit boom/bust, though.
Malik Nabers, LSU vs Florida (DK: $9.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 67 | Implied: 40.75)
Devontez Walker, North Carolina vs Duke (DK: $8.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 18.25)
Evan Stewart, Texas A&M vs Mississippi State (DK: $6.0K | FD: $K | O/U: 43 | Implied: 30.5)
Xavier Worthy, Texas vs TCU (DK: $6.4K | FD: $K | O/U: 55 | Implied: 33.25)
Montorie Foster, Michigan State vs Ohio State (DK: $4.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 47 | Implied: 7.75)
Arlis Boardingham, Florida vs LSU (DK: $4.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 67 | Implied: 26.25)