This is the second official Saturday Afternoon DFS article. Each week, there will be an overlap in players that are written up here with the main slate article considering this slate is comprised of the late games on the main slate. However, half of these players are written up specifically for this slate. It could be helpful to read this article with the Main Slate in mind also, since all these players are available there too.
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Miami (-14.0) vs FSU
Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs UCF
Minnesota (+1.0) vs Purdue
Miami vs FSU (Under 51.0)
Oklahoma State vs UCF (Under 65.5)
Utah vs Washington (Under 49.5)
Cam Ward, Washington State vs California (DK: $8.5K | FD: $11.5K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 29.25)
Cam Ward has been the definition of inconsistent this year. He’s produced 30-plus FP in 4 games, but has less than 13 FP in 3 games. Looking deeper into his inconsistencies, it seems like teams have dropped eight into coverage and made Ward beat them methodically down the field. In some ways, this is exactly what California’s defense is built to do, prevent the big play. However, they have been really bad at it this year. In conference play, this defense is allowing opposing QBs to throw for 301.0 YPG and 2.5 TDs for 28.9 FPG. Ward will be a very popular choice for DFS players on Saturday.
John Rhys Plumlee now has the MOST rushing yards by a QB in UCF history 👏👑 pic.twitter.com/mskhl6Dtll— UCF ‘Nauts Football (@UCF_Football) November 5, 2023
John Rhys Plumlee, UCF vs Oklahoma State (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 33.5)
John Rhys Plumlee appears to be either getting healthier, more comfortable playing with the brace, or both. The last two weeks, he’s averaging 49.0 YPG on the ground. I love Plumlee in this matchup versus Oklahoma State, with the highest game total on the slate and minuscule spread. There will be lots of points scored in this game, and we should have some good exposure here. In the past, we have compared Garrett Greene to Plumlee. Greene produced 28.7 FP on 366 total yards, including 117 on the ground. I’m not sure Plumlee will hit that rushing number, but he is a better passer than Greene. Plumlee will be a popular play in the afternoon slate with significant upside.
Fernando Mendoza, California vs Washington State (DK: $5.9K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 30.75)
Fernando Mendoza is the top cheap QB option on this slate, with a high game total and a small spread. Mendoza has proven that he is able to take advantage of subpar defenses before this year. The Washington State defense is allowing opposing QB1s to produce 16.9 FPG. I think Mendoza can hit that number, but I don’t expect him to smash value unless Jaydn Ott takes a screen or two to the house. Mendoza is a solid play for salary relief, but does have a limited ceiling.
Jordan Travis, FSU vs Miami (DK: $9.5K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 32.25)
Hudson Card, Purdue vs Minnesota (DK: $5.0K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 46.5 | Implied: 22.75)
Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State vs UCF (DK: $7.9K | FD: $11.6K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Ollie Gordon has been putting up video game numbers over the last four weeks, averaging 42.4 FPG. Last week, Gordon fell short of expectations, only gaining 137 yards on 33 carries for 27.5 FP. I’d expect a bounceback week versus UCF this week. I hope you sense the sarcasm in my writing, but UCF is atrocious versus the run. Opposing RB1’s are averaging 18.9 touches for 134.4 yards and 1.4 TDs for 23.8 FPG. Gordon will have another huge game and be the highest-owned RB on the slate. It’s hard to fade him with such a good matchup.
Jaydn Ott, California vs Washington State (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.4K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 30.75)
Jaydn Ott has been really productive since Fernando Mendoza settled in as the QB1 three weeks ago. During that stretch, Ott is averaging 18.3 touches and 118.3 yards for 23.8 FPG. This game has shootout written all over it with the game total and close spread, giving Ott lots of opportunity to crush value on this slate. The Washington State defense is allowing opposing RB1s to average 95.4 YPG and 1.6 TDs for 21.1 FPG. Ott will be a popular play on this slate.
Jordan Nubin, Minnesota vs Purdue (DK: $4.0K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 46.5 | Implied: 23.75)
Jordan Nubin is another cheap option I wanted to mention with the Minnesota injury woes in the backfield. Over the last two weeks, Nubin has 59 carries and 279 yards for 20.0 FPG. If Darius Taylor is out again this week, then I’d expect Nubin to get 20-plus carries versus Purdue. The Boilermakers defense is allowing RB1’s to average 90.5 yards and a TD for 18.2 FPG. Nubin will be a popular play if Taylor is out and should be on our radar.
Dillon Johnson, Washington vs Utah (DK: $7.6K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 28.75)
RJ Harvey, UCF vs Oklahoma State (DK: $6.7K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Mark Fletcher, Miami vs FSU (DK: $6.4K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 17.75)
Cody Schrader, Missouri vs Tennessee (DK: $6.0K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 29.0)
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee vs Missouri (DK: $5.4K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 30.0)
Keon Coleman, FSU vs Miami (DK: $6.6K | FD: $8.3K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 32.25)
Keon Coleman has been practicing this week, so I fully expect him to play versus Miami. Coleman is a future first-round pick and has been a menace for opposing secondaries all year, but that’s not necessarily why I’m writing about him. I wanted to highlight Coleman, because I don’t think he will very highly owned, and he will face a Miami secondary that will potentially be without its top two cornerbacks. If that’s the case, then Coleman could have a field day in this rivalry with very minimal ownership.
Keon Coleman messing with AZ Thomas 😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/fRK5GMzady— Brendan Sonnone (@BSonnone) November 8, 2023
Javon Baker, UCF vs Oklahoma State (DK: $5.9K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Javon Baker is a bit frustrating, trying to figure out when he is going to have big games. However, his last five games have been consistently good. Over that stretch, Baker is averaging 6.4 targets, 3.8 receptions, 91.8 yards, and 4 TDs for 17.8 FPG. In a potential shootout, Baker could go off versus an Oklahoma State defense, allowing opposing WR1s to average 21.0 FPG. I’m expecting Baker’s ownership to be lower, with many people playing Plumlee naked.
Lincoln Victor, Washington State vs California (DK: $5.8K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 29.25)
Lincoln Victor is Cam Ward’s favorite target, making him the top stacking option. Victor has been unbelievable when healthy this year, averaging 12.5 targets, 10.2 receptions, and 103.3 yards for 24.8 FPG. Personally, Victor is a no-brainer this week in this potential shootout. He will be a very popular choice in all formats at his price point.
Brennan Presley, Oklahoma State vs UCF (DK: $5.8K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Brennan Presley is quietly averaging 21.2 FPG over his last four games. Due to Ollie Gordon’s explosion, other Oklahoma State offensive players are going largely unnoticed. This week will be no different, with Gordon being owned by over half the field while Presley goes virtually unowned. In a game where Oklahoma State is projected to score 33.5 points, and must win to stay in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 Championship game, Presley will be highlighted as a playmaker for the Cowboys. Take advantage of this overlooked player on this slate.
Luther Burden, Missouri vs Tennessee (DK: $6.9K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 29.0)
Squirrel White, Tennessee vs Missouri (DK: $5.8K | FD: $7.3K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 30.0)
Leon Johnson, Oklahoma State vs UCF (DK: $4.9K | FD: $7.3K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 33.5)