2025 Week 5 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data, we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

Then, later in the week, Ryan Heath examines schematic matchups for NFL Premium and All-In subscribers with his Advanced Matchups column. We believe we attack coverage matchups from every angle for our subscribers.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Eagles CB AJ Brown

Here we go again. The NFL’s living embodiment of the generic WR tweet is at again, as Brown didn’t speak to reporters after a poor Week 4 performance against Tampa Bay, despite yet another Eagles win. And then he took to social media with a cryptic message that insinuates his desires aren’t being listened to.

And while it might be poor form for Brown to appear mopey when his team is 4-0, he does at least have some level of a point — outside of his huge Week 3, when he caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown entirely in the second half to propel the Eagles to a win over the Rams, Brown has just 8 catches for 42 yards on 18 targets in his other three games. For a player who has been this dominant, it shouldn’t be so hard to get the ball in his hands, even though on tape there have been some instances this year when Brown didn’t look 100% healthy and/or wasn’t giving 100% effort. It’s also worth noting that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was 15/16 in the first half against Tampa, but 0/8 in the second half when he clearly started forcing Brown the ball.

Is Brown’s latest “incident” another way for him to say the Eagles’ offense needs to hit the reset button, like his comments after a near loss to the Panthers in 2024?

It’s worth noting that after those post-Carolina comments last season, Brown caught 8 passes for 110 yards and a score against Pittsburgh, and scored a touchdown in each of his final three regular-season games (and then, of course, in the NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl). That’s the good news.

The bad news is that, if he wants the ball to be forced his way this week, he’ll probably have to do so in Surtain’s shadow coverage.

Over the last two seasons, Surtain has allowed just one individual WR to hit even 30 yards in his primary coverage — that was Quentin Johnston in Week 3 of this season. Surtain shadowed Johnston on 86% of his routes, allowing 3 catches for 61 yards on 4 targets as the closest defender to the ball. This year, Surtain has shut down Calvin Ridley and Ja’Marr Chase (of course, there are other issues with those teams), but he did allow 6 catches to a variety of receivers against the Colts (including 3/28 to Michael Pittman).

Additionally, the Broncos play an exceptionally high rate of man coverage — especially Cover 1 — and Brown might be the best receiver against man coverage in the NFL.

We have Brown projected as a WR3 this week, and I totally get that. But I think I’ll take a stroll down Narrative Street this week. Brown says he gets excitement from dominating, and showing up against the toughest competition in the league would be a heck of a statement. I have him as a rock-solid WR2 on my personal depth chart. I’m interested to see what kind of ownership he draws in DFS contests this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell vs. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

On the flip side of the Eagles/Broncos showdown, Sutton won’t have to deal with the reigning Defensive Player of the Year… but he will have to go against Mitchell, the reigning Defensive Player of the Week.

Mitchell is coming off of his second consecutive shadow, aligning over Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka on 65% of his routes. He completely locked down Egbuka, allowing just 2 catches for 6 yards on 6 targets as the closest defender to the ball (Egbuka, of course, scored a long touchdown on Andrew Mukuba). That means that over his last two games, Mitchell has allowed just 4 catches for 18 yards on 11 targets to a hotshot rookie Egbuka… and a future Hall-of-Famer in Davante Adams.

Sutton doesn’t have the reputation of Adams, nor does he have the buzz of Egbuka, but the fact of the matter is he is one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy football and has been the go-to guy for Bo Nix. But there are also some questions about Sutton’s place in this very deep Broncos receiver room. He ran a route on just 75% of Denver’s dropbacks in Week 4, his second-lowest share of the year (granted, it was a blowout).

Coach Sean Payton has never been shy about showcasing his intelligence, and scheming Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and others into the mix in the “easier” matchups might be how he approaches this game.

As I said above, Sutton is too damn consistent to sit in season-long formats. From a DFS perspective — and maybe I’m nuts — I actually prefer AJ Brown in these dueling shadows.

SHADOW ALERT! Jets CB Sauce Gardner vs. Cowboys WR George Pickens

Everyone expected the Packers’ passing game to go nuts against the Cowboys last week. Every passing game goes nuts against this version of the Cowboys, with their overmatched secondary and under-toothed pass rush.

But it was the Cowboys’ passing game performance that was shocking, with Dak Prescott going nuts against a perceived-tough Packer defense, including Pickens having his best game in Big D — he posted 8/134/2 on 11 targets in the tie, his first full game without CeeDee Lamb (high ankle). Pickens has now scored in three straight games, and it’s obvious Dak will continue to target him with alacrity as long as Lamb is out… and potentially beyond.

Unfortunately, this week, Pickens has a difficult draw with Gardner, who has done more shadowing in 2025 than he ever did in his career before. He followed DK Metcalf in Week 1 and Mike Evans in Week 3, allowing 4/38/1 receiving on 9 targets in his primary coverage to those two players. Evans in the only receiver to have more than 1 reception on Sauce this year, though Darren Waller also got him for a TD in Week 4.

I will say it’s worth noting that Sauce did not shadow any Dolphin WR in Week 4 — he played exclusively LCB, as he had done in the past. Is this simply because coach Aaron Glenn did not see much of a difference in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, or is this a switch in tactics because the Jets had struggled defensively over the first three weeks?

I’m going to guess it’s the former — Pickens is so far above and beyond any other Cowboy option in the passing game, and he runs an overwhelming 93.3% of his routes from the perimeter. I anticipate Gardner will be following him around. Could this be a reason to downgrade him for DFS purposes? I guess. But his role right now is unassailable, and I can’t imagine ranking him outside of my top-5 WRs until Lamb is back.

SHADOW ALERT! Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed vs. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison

Was Week 4 a turning point in the as-of-yet disappointing career of MHJ?

After being directly responsible for two Kyler Murray interceptions in the first half of last week’s game against the Seahawks — one when he stopped running a route across the middle, and the other when he dropped the ball directly into a defender’s gands — Harrison finished with 6 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown, which was a brilliant contested catch over Devon Witherspoon.

Harrison looked far more relieved than excited after the touchdown, indicating his struggles have taken a mental toll on him.

From our perspective, the fact of the matter is Harrison still isn’t getting open much. He’s 82nd of 101 receivers with 50 or more routes run in Average Separation Score, and unlike last year, that’s also happening on horizontally breaking routes. He was 21st in ASS on such routes last year, indicating the Cardinals were misusing him by having him run so many low-percentage vertical routes. This year, he’s 100th in ASS on horizontal routes. So Harrison managers need to hope that mental block was indeed a major factor.

We’re projecting that MHJ will catch a shadow from Sneed, which isn’t a particularly unimpeachable matchup — while Sneed held Nico Collins to just 1 catch for 37 yards in his primary coverage last week, I think that speaks more to how awful the Texans’ pass game has been this year. In Week 2, Davante Adams put Sneed in a world of hurt, catching 5 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown on him.

Given his poor separation metrics, I’m tempering expectations on MHJ.

All Systems Go

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Cowboys perimeter CBs

I mean, it’s an obvious answer at this point, but why wouldn’t I write up any receiver — no matter the offense — going against these Cowboys’ CBs?

Top perimeter CBs Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam have been despicable this season. Elam has allowed a league-high 334 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs in his primary coverage, while Diggs has allowed 3 TD of his own — despite being targeted in coverage only 7 times. Elam has allowed a perfect passer rating of 158.3 when targeted, and Diggs isn’t far behind (153.3). Altogether, Dallas has allowed a staggering +21.1 schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs, easily the league’s worst. Wilson runs just 58% of his snaps from the perimeter this year, which means he’ll likely move inside and see DaRon Bland from time to time, but Bland had a tough return to the lineup from a foot injury in Week 4, allowing 4 catches for 72 yards and a TD on 5 targets in his primary coverage to Packer WRs. I know it’s hard to trust Justin Fields, but only Puka Nacua (36.5%) has a higher target share than Wilson (33.6%) in 2025. And believe it or not, Wilson has caught 75% of his 36 targets, so Fields has had success throwing him the ball.

Wilson is an obvious WR1 option this week, and I expect he’ll be chalky in DFS.

Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy vs. Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell

Campbell has skills, but when he gets beat, he gets beat. Per our charted data, only Kaiir Elam has allowed more receiving yards than Campbell (279), and Campbell has also surrendered 3 receiving touchdowns. Only Elam has allowed more PPR FP in his primary coverage than Campbell (64.9).

Campbell has defended 5 passes, which is a high number, but it’s in large part because defenses have been picking on Campbell. With 33 passes targeted in his direction this year, Campbell “leads” all CBs.

Now, the Chiefs move their receivers all around, but it was blatantly obvious Worthy’s presence in Week 4’s win over the Ravens gave them something their offense has been lacking all year, with 121 yards from scrimmage in what was effectively his 2025 debut. The speed was evident, but how about Worthy showing off some route-running chops as well?

The Jags have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs this year, and that’s practically been entirely Campbell’s doing. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes would do well to isolate their most dangerous WR on him. It also helps that top pass rusher Travon Walker (wrist) seems unlikely to play this week.

This game is not on the DFS main slate, but I’ll be entertaining some Worthy props, and maybe even some lower-end Tyquan Thornton ones, depending on the numbers that come out.

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Commanders slot CB Mike Sainristil

Ladd McConkey? More like Sadd McConkey.

Honest question: if I were to tell you on August 20 that I traveled a month into the future and Justin Herbert would be a borderline MVP candidate by the end of September, where would you have drafted McConkey? First round, for sure. Top half of the first round, maybe. So that makes his current standing as the overall WR51 in PPR — behind the likes of KaVontae Turpin and JuJu Smith-Schuster — an absolute disaster.

We still have McConkey as a top-20 separator in the league, but the seemingly very real breakout of Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen being decidedly not washed has left McConkey as an afterthought in this offense… but I’m going back to the well this week.

McConkey’s most common matchup will be on Sainristil, who has allowed 235 receiving yards in his primary coverage this year. That’s second-most to Marlon Humphrey among corners who have played more than half their coverage snaps in the slot. Overall, the Commanders have allowed +2.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot receivers, which is 6th-most in the league.

Washington’s secondary has struggled in general this year, so I’m not suggesting benching QJ or anything of the sort, but I think this is a very strong bounceback spot for the young Ladd.

Raiders WR Tre Tucker vs. Colts CB Mekhi Blackmon

Earlier in the week, I was projecting Tucker against Xavien Howard, and I was going to write that matchup up for this column, because Howard is washed.

But Puka Nacua had other plans — he burnt Howard directly into retirement.

We charted Howard as having given up 96 yards in his primary coverage in Week 4, 4th-most among any CB on the week. So it’s probably good news for the Colts that he’s hanging up the cleats… right?

Wellllll…

One of the CBs who gave up more production last week? That would be Mekhi Blackmon, who figures to slide from the Colts backup slot role (where he’s been filling in for the injured Kenny Moore) to the vacated RCB slot Howard leaves behind (the Colts can call veteran Mike Hilton up off the practice squad to play the slot). Tucker runs the plurality of his routes from LWR, and a whopping 86.1% of his routes from the perimeter in general. The Colts allow +4.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to perimeter WRs, 8th-most in the NFL, but the 5th-most to LWRs, where opposing receivers can avoid Charvarius Ward. Moreover, Blackmon is progressing through concussion protocol, so if he can’t play, the Colts will be down to their third-string RCB.

Look, with the Colts down to essentially their third-string slot CB, this is also an appealing draw for Jakobi Meyers, but I like to dig deeper in this column on occasion. I’m not saying Tucker is going to have another 3-TD outburst, but I think he’s an attractive DFS lineup filler, and you can do worse in season-long if you have someone like Drake London or DK Metcalf on bye.

Pump the Brakes

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas vs. Chiefs Perimeter CBs

The chemistry between BTJ and Trevor Lawrence actually showed signs of improving last week, and by that I mean he actually caught more than a third of his targets. Despite that “milestone,” he still turned his 7 targets into just 5 catches for 49 yards, setting a season-high with 9.9 fantasy points. Jeepers.

Again, I’m going to be encouraged by the fact that this didn’t look like the worst QB/WR connection in the league for one week, but this matchup is a brutal one for the Jags to keep it going. The Chiefs are allowing -9.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to perimeter wide receivers, where BTJ runs 73% of his routes. That’s the second-lowest mark in the league, and a major testament to Trent McDuffie’s seamless transition from premier slot CB to lockdown outside man.

McDuffie doesn’t shadow — or at least hasn’t to this point this year — but his presence will keep BTJ on the WR3 radar this week.

Commanders WRs vs. Chargers DBs

The focus has been on both the good (Quentin Johnston, Omarion Hampton) and the bad (Ladd McConkey) of the Chargers’ offense so far, but one of the reasons this team might be able to overcome its OL injuries is that its defense is so good.

That includes the Donte Jackson and Tarheeb Still led CB group. Among players with 35 or more coverage snaps played, Jackson has allowed the 4th-fewest PPR fantasy points per coverage snap. Still (16th) isn’t far behind.

Jackson plays on the outside of the formation, and with Terry McLaurin (quad) expected to miss this week, it’s not like you’re considering many Commanders perimeter WR options for your fantasy lineups. But Still on Deebo Samuel in the slot (where Deebo runs 44% of his routes)? That is a downgrade for Deebo, in my opinion, though not as much as it would be if Jayden Daniels weren’t starting.

We have Deebo projected as a WR1 this week based on volume alone, but it’s a tough draw.