Welcome to Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player who is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
There are four teams out on bye – Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh.
Good luck this week!
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (TNF)
Must Start
Puka Nacua – The runaway WR1 overall in fantasy right now, Nacua has racked up 116/1447/4 receiving and 14/98/2 rushing (19.1 Half-PPR FPG) over his last 13 games that weren’t cut short by injury/ejection. Puka leads all WRs in targets per game (12.5) by two over Olave (10.5).
Christian McCaffrey – Will handle as many touches as he possibly can. CMC is averaging 10.5 targets per game, which is tied with Chris Olave for second-most among all players.
Start ‘Em
Davante Adams – Puka Nacua’s role is insanely good, but Adams is also getting WR1-volume. This is similar to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins when Joe Burrow is healthy. Stafford is playing so well that he can easily support two WR1 in fantasy. Nacua is currently WR1 and Adams is WR12. There is still a chance to buy here. Adams ranks WR3 in expected fantasy points and WR9 in targets per game. He is not on the Week 5 injury report.
Kyren Williams – Even though Blake Corum is cutting in more and Williams’ snap rate is now hovering in the 70% range, Kyren still has at least 16 touches and 80 yards from scrimmage in three straight games. I’m treating him as a low-end RB1 as a huge home favorite against a short-handed 49ers team.
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – Prior to last week’s explosion (375 yards, 3 TDs), Stafford finished as fantasy’s QB20, QB18, and QB14 in scoring in Weeks 1-3. This doesn’t strike me as a spot where the Rams will have to keep their foot on the gas all game long as -8.5 favorites. The 49ers pass rush will struggle without Nick Bosa, but their secondary has been a little stingy (5.6 YPA allowed | third-fewest). This is definitely the 49ers toughest test yet after their easy matchups in Weeks 1-4 vs. Seattle, Arizona, New Orleans, and Jacksonville.
Mac Jones – It’ll be Jones back under center with Brock Purdy (toe) suffering a setback. Unfortunately, this is a preseason-level offense for the 49ers. His top two wide receivers will be Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson.
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings – Both are out with injuries. Pearsall is facing a potential multi-week absence (knee). Jennings (ankle/shoulder/ribs) is beat up, but he could return in Week 6.
Jake Tonges – With the 49ers down to the skids at receiver, Tonges is in play as a desperation streamer at TE. He co-led the team in targets last week (5) and had 3/58/1 receiving.
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (London | 9:30a)
Start ‘Em
Quinshon Judkins – Last week was just another season-high in snaps (60%) for the rookie as he’s completely taken over this backfield. Judkins has taken 39-of-42 handoffs over the last two games, racking up a monster role across Weeks 3-4 (RB6 in expected FPG). If the Vikings have one weakness on defense, it’s against the run. They allow the eighth-most yards per game (113.3).
Justin Jefferson – The Browns deploy the fourth-most man coverage (40%), and their cornerbacks will get cooked if they continue to play that much man-to-man vs. Jefferson. Through four games, Jefferson is earning a target on 24% of his routes vs. man coverage, compared to just 10% for Hockenson.
Jordan Mason – We saw the fragility with Mason’s role last week after the Vikings got down early to the Steelers. Zavier Scott ran more routes (22 to 18) and saw more targets (7 to 3) than Mason in Week 4. Mason will take the majority of the carries, but Scott cutting in on passing downs knocks Mason down in the RB2 ranks. This is a brutal matchup. The Browns are allowing the second-fewest YPC (2.6).
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – In their last 12 games together (including playoffs), Jefferson has put up 77/1071/5 receiving on 109 targets (14.6 Half-PPR FPG | WR8) while Addison has 56/787/8 receiving on 87 targets (12.9 FPG | WR17).
Sit ‘Em
Jerry Jeudy – Has finished as WR32, WR52, WR92, and WR45 in Weeks 1-4.
TJ Hockenson – In their first game back all together with Jefferson and Addison, Hockenson earned a pitiful 4.2% first-read target share. This is more of the same for Hockenson – he’s been the clear third target on the Vikings over the last two years. In his last 12 games with Jefferson and Addison, Hockenson has turned his 67 targets into 50/558/1 receiving (7.2 Half-PPR FPG). The Browns are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game and the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs.
David Njoku and Harold Fannin – Njoku has yet to finish better than TE15 on a weekly basis this season. Fannin has just 10 receptions for 97 yards over the last three weeks since he caught 7/63 in Week 1.
Carson Wentz – Has finished as QB13 and QB9 in his two starts, but this is a terrible matchup for the Vikings passing game. Minnesota is down three starters along the offensive line (T Bryan O’Neill, G Donovan Jackson, and C Ryan Kelly) against Cleveland’s elite pass rush. The Browns are generating pressure on 45% of opponents' dropbacks (seventh-most) and allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (172.3).
Dillon Gabriel – Play the Vikings D/ST. DC Brian Flores is going to send the heat. No team blitzes more often than Minnesota (47.2% of opponents’ dropbacks).
Stash ‘Em
Isaiah Bond – Worth a flier in 20-man roster deep leagues. Cedric Tillman (hamstring) will miss the next four weeks.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets
Must Start
Garrett Wilson – Dallas is getting absolutely smoked for a league-high 156.8 yards and 33.8 Half-PPR fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers.
George Pickens – Has earned at least nine targets in three straight games, and he just obligated the Packers (8/134/1 receiving). The Jets haven’t been sharp in the secondary, allowing 2.2 yards per route run to opposing outside wide receivers (10th-most).
Jake Ferguson – Over the last two weeks without CeeDee Lamb, the volume has been amazing for Ferguson. He’s turned his 21 targets into 20/122/1 receiving. Dallas’ passing attack is hyper-concentrated around Pickens (32% first read target share) and Ferguson (25%).
Start ‘Em
Breece Hall – With Braelon Allen (knee) out for a few weeks, Hall’s runway to bell cow volume just got a lot cleaner. Hall took 75% of the snaps in the second half last week after Allen left the game. Dallas is playing significantly better run defense this season, but they’ve given up the third-most receiving yards and fourth-most receptions per game to running backs.
Javonte Williams – Coming off of another massive workload in Week 4, Williams played 80% of the snaps and finished as RB4 in expected fantasy points. He’s going to get another massive workload with Miles Sanders (ankle) injured. Dallas is installed as a -2.5 favorite.
Dak Prescott – Dak has been up-and-down this season, sandwiching QB29 and QB26 scoring weeks (vs. Eagles and Bears) with QB7 and QB1 outings (vs. Giants and Packers). This is a sneaky great matchup. The Jets are allowing the fifth-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.49).
Justin Fields – It certainly wasn’t pretty last week, but Fields got there with a QB5 scoring week, thanks in large part to his legs (7/81/1 rushing). Fields played a terrible game vs. Bills (2.5 YPA), but he was decent as a passer vs. Dolphins (8.4 YPA) and Steelers (9.9 YPA). This is clearly a week to chase the ceiling. Dallas’ secondary allows a league-high 9.2 YPA and 0.58 passing fantasy points per dropback. The Cowboys have given up 24 or more FP to every quarterback that they’ve faced.
Stream ‘Em
Mason Taylor – Over the last two weeks, the Jets have condensed their passing offense to just Wilson (49% of first read targets) and Taylor (21%). Taylor’s role has been solid in this span – worth 10.2 expected fantasy points per game (~TE8). Taylor is a low-end TE1 here in this matchup with the fourth-highest game total (47.5 over/under).
Stash ‘Em
Isaiah Davis – The direct handcuff to Hall now that Allen is injured.
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles
Start ‘Em
Jalen Hurts – You’re not taking Hurts out of lineups, obviously. This is a matchup where the Broncos' talented front-seven could make his head spin, though. Hurts is averaging just 5.1 yards per pass attempt when he’s blitzed this season. Denver is sending extra blitzers at the seventh-highest rate (37%).
Saquon Barkley – The Eagles' offensive line has fallen from second-best in adjusted yards before contact per carry (3.1) to league average (1.8 YBC/carry) year over year. Even though he’s not running through gaping holes like last season, Barkley looks like a decent buy right now. His role is just so good. Barkley ranks RB2 in snaps and RB5 by expected fantasy points.
Courtland Sutton – Over his last 15 games (including playoffs), Sutton has 78/1070/9 receiving (on 115 targets). That’s worth 13.3 Half-PPR FPG (WR15). Sutton has been an ATM for bankable low end WR1 weeks for two straight seasons, but this is definitely his toughest matchup yet. Eagles top CB Quinyon Mitchell (0.23 FP allowed per route run) will shadow, and he’s been about as dominant as Pat Surtain (0.18 FP/RR allowed). Sutton is more of a low-end WR2 this week.
Dallas Goedert – One of a few TEs who play nearly every single snap, Goedert (83%) ranks TE3 in route share this season. Goedert does not have a high ceiling, but he’s always on the board as a lower-end TE1. He’s finished as the TE15 or better in weekly scoring in nine out of his last 11 full games. Missed practice on Wednesday (knee).
FLEX Plays
J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey – Denver split snaps between Dobbins (43%) and Harvey (41%) last week in an ideal game script. The Broncos were huge home favorites last week, but are +3.5 road dogs here. If last week’s usage sticks, then it should favor Harvey’s uptick in the passing game. Harvey ran 11 routes (5 targets) while Dobbins ran just four (1 target). Philadelphia also hasn’t been as strong against the run this year, allowing 4.4 YPC (eighth-most). The Broncos RBs are FLEX plays this week.
A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith – The Eagles are the second-most run-heavy team with a -4.9% pass rate under expectation, and they’re playing extremely slow on offense. Philadelphia is fourth-slowest in seconds of play clock (0:31) in between snaps. Structurally, this is a brutal passing offense for fantasy. I’m pretty concerned long-term here. This is also not a great matchup. Brown will see shadow coverage from Pat Surtain, while Smith’s matchup is relatively difficult, too. Smith is running 61% of his routes lined up in the slot, and Denver allows the seventh-fewest Half-PPR FPG (9.7) to slot wideouts. Brown and Smith project like lower-end WR3-types this week.
Sit ‘Em
Bo Nix – Last week was a clear bounceback spot at home vs. Bengals, and Nix delivered with a QB6 finish. This is a much more difficult task. The Eagles are giving up the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Nix has been slightly less efficient with 5.8 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (sacks and INTs penalized) compared to his rookie season (6.1 ANY/A).
Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims – Franklin remains a stash in deep leagues while Mims is destined to a part-time role all season. Franklin is running a route on 73% of Denver’s pass plays, while Mims is down at 46%. Franklin is lining up in the slot on 59% of his routes, which means he has a tough matchup against physical Eagles slot CB Cooper DeJean.
Evan Engram
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
This game total has fallen 7 points since open after Lamar Jackson (hamstring) was ruled out. Only Vikings-Browns (35.5 over/under) has a lower total than Texans-Ravens (40.5).
Must Start
Nico Collins – After a slow opener, Collins has turned his 26 targets into 15/235/2 receiving in Weeks 2-4. He has a chance to absolutely erupt against this sliding and beat up Ravens defense that’s allowing the third-most total FPG (38.6 Half-PPR) to receivers.
Start ‘Em
Derrick Henry – Wouldn’t it make a ton of sense for the Ravens to just load up Henry with as many carries as he can handle and try to grind out a one-score win here vs. the Texans without Lamar? That’s the theory, at least. As always, Houston is playing solid run defense. The Texans allow just 3.8 YPC and have given up just two explosive runs of 15+ yards. Henry has averaged 14.1 Half-PPR FPG in eight losses with the Ravens compared to 20.4 FPG in their 13 victories.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers – The QB downgrade from Jackson to Rush knocks Flowers from a top-15 weekly WR play to more of a WR2/3. The good news is that the Ravens move him around their formations so much that he’ll avoid Texans top CB Derek Stingley, who primarily sticks to his left side alignment (72%). Flowers was targeted five times on Cooper Rush’s 12 pass attempts in relief last week.
Woody Marks – It’s Marks season! His snaps have increased in four straight games (12% > 28% > 49% > 59%) while the veteran Nick Chubb is being phased out of the offense. The Ravens are going to be a bottom-5 defense for the rest of the way after all their injuries, especially after losing their top DL Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) for the year. Baltimore has allowed 78/394/4 rushing (5.1 YPC) over the last three weeks. I’m treating Marks as a high upside RB2/FLEX for the rest of the season, and especially this week.
Sit ‘Em
C.J. Stroud – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB on a weekly basis in just three of his last 20 games.
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely – As expected, the Ravens went back to a timeshare committee at tight end now that Likely is back in the lineup. Andrews ran a route on just 58% of the pass plays while Likely was involved at a 48% clip last week. With Rush under center, both of the Ravens TEs are mid-range TE2s in the projections.
Christian Kirk – Houston is using Kirk as their primary slot receiver with Xavier Hutchinson mixing in heavily. Hutchinson (24) ran a few more routes than Kirk (20) last week.
Nick Chubb
Rashod Bateman
Justice Hill
Cooper Rush – Play the Texans D/ST.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
The total (42.5 over/under) is low here, but I see some sneaky upside with this game environment. The Saints are the fastest-paced offense (22.9 seconds of play clock between snaps) while the Giants ran more no-huddle and up-tempo last week with Jaxson Dart.
Start ‘Em
Cam Skattebo – Without Tyrone Tracy (shoulder), Skattebo saw an enormous workload last week. He ranked RB9 in snaps (75%) and RB3 by expected fantasy points. Bullish. Keep using Skattebo as a volume-based RB2.
Chris Olave – Currently ranks WR2 in targets per game (10.5) and WR2 in XFP. While I don’t think we can ever expect Olave to perform up to this volume attached to a bad Saints passing offense, this is an ideal matchup for him to have a ceiling game. The Giants allow the third-most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (138).
Alvin Kamara – Sure, Kendre Miller scored the TD last week, but Kamara’s role was still pretty good. He ranked RB11 in both snaps and expected fantasy points in Week 4. Kamara’s main problem this season is that he’s no longer getting the checkdown spam targets that he got for so long with Brees and Carr. Right now, Kamara is averaging just 12.3 receiving yards per game. It’s easily a career-low. This is one of just a few times that the Saints will be favored all year – New Orleans is -2.5 over New York – so we have to treat Kamara as a decent RB2 on this slate. Plus, it’s a good matchup. The Giants are getting trucked for 5.8 YPC (second-most).
Juwan Johnson – Through four weeks, Johnson ranks TE3 in targets per game (7.8), trailing only Ferguson (9.8) and McBride (8.5). He’s also TE3 in expected fantasy points. The role has been amazing, but Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau did return to limited practice this week as they work back from their knee injuries. Johnson (ankle) didn’t practice on Wednesday.
FLEX Plays
Darius Slayton – In the two games that Nabers missed last season, Slayton earned a 30% target share. He turned his 22 targets into 14/179/1 receiving. Of course, this is a much more run-focused offense now, so we can’t expect double-digit targets here. However, this matchup is nice. The Saints allow 2.7 yards per route run to opposing outside wide receivers – only Dallas (3.1) is worse.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Robinson has earned 27 targets to Slayton’s 11 this season. This is relatively a much easier matchup for Slayton than for the Giants slot man. No defense is allowing fewer yards per game to slot wideouts (36.8) than New Orleans.
Rashid Shaheed – The Giants play the most man coverage (46% of opponents’ dropbacks), which is a positive signal for Shaheed. He leads the Saints in targets per route run (0.28) by a whisker over Olave (0.27) and Johnson (0.24) vs. man-to-man this season.
Stream ‘Em
Jaxson Dart – New York clearly had a plan for Dart in the designed run game, and he scrambled often if his first read was taken away. Dart didn’t do much as a passer (13-of-20 for 111 yards, 1 TD) but added 10/54/1 rushing. The Giants leaned heavily on the run game last week with a -9% pass rate under expectation. Thanks to his legs, Dart is easily the best streaming QB option on this slate. Dart had seven designed carries in Week 4, which is one more than Drake Maye (6 designed carries) has all season long. I’m not sure how much this matters because New York is going to be so run-heavy without Malik Nabers, but the Saints are a very generous secondary. They’re allowing the third-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.55).
Sit ‘Em
Spencer Rattler – Has quietly been solid for 2QB/SuperFlex leagues with QB23, QB10, QB21, and QB20 scoring weeks. It’s all volume-based, though. Rattler ranks QB4 in pass attempts per game (36.5).
Theo Johnson
Stash ‘Em
Kendre Miller
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor
Tyler Warren – Through four games, Warren has more receiving yards (263) than Brock Bowers (216 yards in Weeks 1-4) and Sam LaPorta (242) did in their respective rookie seasons. The Raiders predominantly play Cover-3 zone (54%), and Warren leads the Colts in targets (10) over Michael Pittman (5) against Cover-3.
Start ‘Em
Brock Bowers – He’s not moving like he’s 100% healthy after suffering a Week 1 knee injury, but you really have no other choice but to play him. Bowers is wearing a supportive brace during games and was limited in practice on Wednesday. If you’re 4-0 or 3-1, I’d look to try and trade for him. Despite the injury, Bowers still ranks TE5 in targets per game and TE8 in route participation. He will hopefully be healthy by midseason.
Ashton Jeanty – That’s more like it. Jeanty went off in an ideal matchup vs. the Bears last week, ripping Chicago for 155 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. Las Vegas made Zamir White a healthy scratch and used Dylan Laube sparingly in the pass game, culminating in a bell cow 85% snap rate for Jeanty in Week 4. While this is not nearly as good of a matchup as last week, you can run on the Colts. Indianapolis ranks fourth-worst with 5.2 YPC and a 55% success rate off of zone-blocking carries, which is what Las Vegas primarily utilizes (66% of Jeanty’s runs are zone).
Michael Pittman – Besides one down game locked up vs. Pat Surtain in Week 2 (4/40 receiving), Pittman has tallied up 17/194/3 receiving (15.3 Half-PPR FPG) across his other three games. He’s emerging as one of the best WR2s in fantasy. Las Vegas is getting cleaned out for 146.8 yards per game (second-most) by opposing outside wide receivers.
Daniel Jones – No quarterback is locking on to their first read more than Jones (81%) this season, and it came back to bite him on the game-ending INT last week. Jones locked on to Pittman, forcing the ball into double coverage. Jones previously finished as a top-12 scoring QB in Weeks 1-3 before last week’s letdown (QB27). He projects as a low-end QB1 in what could be a shootout game environment (47.5 over/under).
FLEX Plays
Jakobi Meyers – Coming off of the worst game of his season (4/30 receiving) after his quarterback melted down. This is a pretty good bounceback matchup for Meyers. The Colts are allowing the second-most yards per game to slot receivers (90.3) with slot CB Kenny Moore (Achilles) out.
Sit ‘Em
Geno Smith – Completely crumbled in an ideal spot vs. Bears last week. Smith ranks fifth-worst in catchable throw rate (71%) and dead last in turnover-worthy throws (6.3%). Geno has finished as fantasy’s QB15, QB32, QB4, and QB23 on a weekly basis this season.
Tre Tucker
Alec Pierce
Josh Downs
Stash ‘Em
DJ Giddens – The handcuff to Taylor.
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Over his last 15 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Achane has 193/867/6 rushing and 85/673/8 receiving (on 98 targets). That’s worth 17.9 Half-PPR FPG (RB5) – two-tenths behind Bijan Robinsn (18.1 FPG). Carolina is struggling against the run again, allowing 4.7 YPC (fourth-most). Achane has gone over 75 scrimmage yards in four-straight games.
Start ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle – With Tyreek Hill (knee) out for the season, Miami will spread its targets around Waddle, Achane, Malik Washington, and Darren Waller. Make no mistake: Waddle’s value just went way up. In one career game without Hill back in Week 15 of 2023, Waddle went nuclear (8/142/1 receiving on nine targets).
Tetairoa McMillan – He’s yet to find the end zone, but McMillan’s volume has been amazing. He’s earned at least eight targets in every game and ranks WR15 in first-read target share (29%), just behind Nico Collins and Justin Jefferson (31%). Bryce Young will hold McMillan back from really hitting a big ceiling season, but this matchup provides plenty of upside. Miami is allowing a healthy 2.2 yards per route run to opposing outside wide receivers (10th-most).
FLEX Plays
Chuba Hubbard – Was limited by a calf injury last week, which resulted in a season-low in snaps. The Dolphins are a clear get-right matchup – they’re allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game (120.8) – but Hubbard is not 100% healthy. He didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Stream ‘Em
Tommy Tremble – Looks like the top streaming TE play on the slate. Ja’Tavion Sanders (ankle) is likely out again, which sets up Tremble in an ideal matchup. Tremble earned seven targets and the second-most expected fantasy points of any TE in Week 4 without Sanders. Shout out to Scott Barrett for being a week early here with Tremble as a DFS value last week. This is arguably an even better spot. Miami is allowing a league-high 75.5 yards per game to tight ends.
Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa
Bryce Young
Darren Waller – Cashed in 2 TDs on his two end zone targets, but he played a very limited role (37% route share). Waller should be rostered in all formats, but we need to see him play more before trusting him in lineups.
Stash ‘Em
Ollie Gordon
Rico Dowdle
Malik Washington – Worth stashing in deep leagues. Washington will play full-time as the Dolphins WR2 without Hill. He has some WR3 upside if Waller remains a part-time player.
Jalen Coker – Worth a speculative stash in deeper leagues.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (4:05p)
Must Start
Jaxson Smith-Njigba – The only receiver in Puka Nacua’s stratosphere right now. JSN is averaging a scorched-earth 4.32 yards per route run, barely trailing Nacua (4.37). Smith-Njigba is Seattle’s first read on a whopping 44.3% of their pass plays. JSN is one of a few consistent WRs in fantasy, finishing as WR8, WR13, WR8, and WR25 on a weekly basis so far. Sam Darnold and Smith-Njigba have linked up for 7 receptions and 204 (!!) yards on nine targets vs. blitzes this season. The Buccaneers rank third in blitz rate (39%).
Start ‘Em
Emeka Egbuka – He got away with a 77-yard busted coverage TD that saved his day for fantasy last week, and Egbuka is up to WR7 by fantasy points per game. As the WR19 by expected fantasy points per game, Egbuka is definitely performing better than his role would indicate. With Godwin immediately mixing in for a full-time role and Mike Evans due back in a few weeks, it might mean that Egbuka is due to regress midseason, but we’re still working with a very strong WR2 here. Targets will be even further condensed if Sterling Shepard (foot) is out.
Chris Godwin – The box score (3/26 receiving) wasn’t great, but Godwin immediately got a full-time role in his debut. He ran a route on 86% of the Buccaneers pass plays, earned 9 targets (25% of first reads), and his role was WR2-worthy by XFP. Godwin’s separation skills were good (0.16 separation score | 24% win rate), which is borderline top-12 figures among WRs. Seattle is allowing the eighth-most yards per game (79) to opposing wideouts. Slot CB Devon Witherspoon is nursing a knee injury.
Baker Mayfield – As always, he projects as a lower-end QB1. Mayfield has opened this season with QB11, QB16, QB9, and QB10 scoring weeks. This is not an easy matchup. Seattle is allowing the sixth-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback.
Rachaad White – With Bucky Irving (foot) set to miss Week 5, we’ll see Rachaad White and Sean Tucker split the Buccaneers backfield. My lean is that White will have the more valuable role, thanks to his passing-down usage. Irving left their Week 14 game early last season, in which White had 17/90/1 rushing with 2/19/1 receiving (on three targets). Sean Tucker (3/47 rushing, 2 targets) mixed in.
FLEX Plays
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet – In their three games together, Charbonnet (52%) leads Walker (43%) in snaps while the duo has split the rushing work down the middle. Walker has turned his 42 carries into 206 yards and a TD, while Charbonnet has 39/96/2 rushing. My sense is that Walker ends up getting more overall touches, but Charbonnet remains heavily involved in short-yardage situations. Charbonnet has out-snapped Walker by a 75% to 25% margin inside-the-10 (red-zone). This is a brutally tough matchup. Tampa Bay allows a league-low 2.4 YPC. They’ve given up just seven rushing first downs on 83 carries.
Sit ‘Em
Bucky Irving – Set to miss time with a foot injury. Irving was spotted in a walking boot and on crutches on Wednesday.
Sam Darnold – He’s not in play for 1-QB leagues, but Darnold continues to be sneaky good in SuperFlex/2QB formats.
Cooper Kupp – Held under 35 yards in 3-of-4 games.
Tory Horton
Stash ‘Em
Sean Tucker – Should be rostered in all 12-team leagues. There’s a chance that Tucker gets a crack at 40% of the early-down and goal-line carries with Bucky Irving sidelined.
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (4:05p)
Must Start
Trey McBride
Start ‘Em
Kyler Murray – Kyler has been the definition of “meh” for fantasy this season, finishing as the QB16, QB16, QB22, and QB16 in weekly output. That’s replacement-level production. With four teams out on a bye and on this slate short of great QB matchups, Kyler remains a lower-end QB1. Tennessee’s secondary is burnable. The Titans give up the 11th-most passing fantasy points per dropback and 10th-most YPA.
FLEX Plays
Marvin Harrison – It definitely wasn’t pretty at times, but Harrison had a nice bounceback game (6/66/1 receiving) last week. This was just the fourth time in his career that he’s earned double-digit targets. The Titans play mostly zone coverage (77%), which is always a bullish note for Trey McBride. Against 111 zone coverage snaps this season, McBride has earned a target on 26% of his routes while Harrison is down at 18%. As always, Harrison is on the board as a WR3/FLEX.
Tony Pollard – The Titans could be getting Tyjae Spears (ankle) back this week – Spears has returned to a limited practice. Committee backfields on bottom-3 offenses are ones to avoid in fantasy football. At best, Pollard is now a low-end FLEX. Here’s how the Titans backfield usage broke down last season in their 11 games played together:
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
Cardinals Backfield
Trey Benson (knee) needed a clean up meniscus surgery, and he’ll miss at least the next four games on I.R. This means that Arizona is going to go with some sort of compartmentalized backfield committee with Michael Carter and Emari Demercado. It sounds as if the Cardinals are preparing for Carter to start while Demercado stays in his usual passing-down and special teams role. Carter did run ok to close out last season (30/113/1 rushing), but he got two spot starts in Weeks 17-18 without Demercado. This is an awesome matchup against a struggling Titans run defense, but both of these Cardinals RBs are desperation FLEX plays. Tennessee is allowing the fourth-most YPC and the third-highest explosive run rate.
Sit ‘Em
Calvin Ridley – Questionable to play with a knee injury.
Cameron Ward – Play the Cardinals D/ST.
Stash ‘Em
Elic Ayomanor
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (4:25p)
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – The only thing stopping Herbert this season is a beat-up offensive line. T Joe Alt is set to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. Herbert has an awesome matchup here against a mid Commanders secondary that is giving up the fifth-most passing fantasy points per game and the third-most yards per pass attempt.
Jayden Daniels – Has returned to full practice, and he will play in Week 5 after missing two games with a knee injury. You’re starting him no matter what, but this is a difficult matchup. The Chargers have limited Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, Bo Nix, and Jaxson Dart to a league-low 9.4 passing fantasy points per game.
Omarion Hampton – As expected, Hampton was a bell cow to the highest degree last week. He led all RBs in snaps (88%) and played a huge role in the pass game. Hampton was involved on 73% of the Chargers' pass plays last week, trailing only Bijan Robinson (82%) and Christian McCaffrey (78%) in route participation. Washington is playing the run pretty well, allowing just 2.5 YPC and a 31% success rate vs. gap blocking concepts. He’s still a set-and-forget RB1 here.
Deebo Samuel – Turned his six targets into 6/72/1 receiving last week. Samuel and Zach Ertz split first read targets (23% share apiece) without Terry McLaurin. At worst, Deebo is a borderline WR1 this week with Daniels back at the controls.
Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen – Johnston (9.0) leads the Chargers in targets per game followed by Allen (8.5) and McConkey (6.8). Johnston continues to profile like one of the best WR2 plays on the slate, but I’m definitely buying a McConkey bounce back. McConkey has more target competition now, but a much larger pie. Los Angeles is first in pass rate over expectation (+10%). McConkey’s overall volume hasn’t changed much – he had 82/1149/7 receiving on 7.0 targets per game in his rookie season. This is an awesome spot for him to get off this four-game skid. Washington is allowing a league-high 2.2 yards per route run to opposing slot receivers.
Zach Ertz – Over his last 19 games with Jayden Daniels starting, Ertz averages 10.9 PPR points per game (~TE10).
Sit ‘Em
Terry McLaurin – Likely out again with a quad injury.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, and Jeremy McNichols – Don’t plan on using any of these Commanders RBs in fantasy football. Take a look below at the backfield usage in two games without Austin Ekeler. This is a gross three-way committee:
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
Stash ‘Em
Oronde Gadsden – Stash in deeper TE premium leagues. The rookie’s route share came up from 28% in Week 3 to 43% in Week 4.
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (4:25p)
Must Start
Jahmyr Gibbs
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Start ‘Em
Ja’Marr Chase – The good news? Chase’s volume is still pretty good. In five and a half games together with Jake Browning and Tee Higgins (dating back to 2023), Chase is averaging 8.2 targets per game (WR14). That’s enough for Chase to survive. The bad news is that Jake Browning has melted down in two back-to-back tough matchups against two very aggressive front-sevens in Minnesota and Denver, completely exposing HC Zac Taylor in the process. This offense gave up and had zero answers vs. the Broncos on MNF last week. My panic meter will be 8 or 9 out of 10 with Chase if he can’t get it done here. Detroit is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers.
Jared Goff – Just blindly jam Goff into lineups when the Lions are the favorites. Over the last four seasons, Goff averages 20.9 fantasy points per game (QB7) in 36 starts as a favorite. Detroit is favored to win by 10.5 points. Cincinnati is allowing the third-most passing fantasy points and third-most yards per game to opposing QBs.
Sam LaPorta – It’s been three straight lean weeks for LaPorta, but he catches an awesome matchup here vs. the Bengals slow LB/S corps. Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most receptions and ninth-most yards to opposing TEs.
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery – As expected, Montgomery came back down to earth in a much tougher matchup last week vs. Browns after he crushed the Ravens in Week 3. This is looking like a great spot to use Montgomery as a high-end FLEX or low-end RB2. Cincinnati can be had through the air and on the ground – they give up 4.6 YPC (sixth-most).
Jameson Williams – While Amon-Ra continues to get served up alpha targets (31 in total), LaPorta (21) and Williams (20) are left as the secondary receivers in this Lions offense. Williams has a low floor but tons of upside attached to Goff in such a strong matchup.
Sit ‘Em
Chase Brown – I’ll continue to be out on Brown until (or if) we see the Bengals put together a competent offense. Brown is getting all of the work in this backfield, but it doesn’t matter at all because the Bengals can’t block. This offensive line is averaging a pathetic 0.5 yards before contact per carry. Detroit is a good run defense again. They’ve allowed just 3.6 YPC (ninth-fewest). Brown has done little in the passing game to inspire confidence, too. He’s turned his 14 targets into 74 yards of offense.
Tee Higgins – Browning, Chase, and Higgins have played in five and a half games together. In these outings, Chase turned his 45 targets into 38/443/1 receiving. Higgins has just 14/258/3 receiving on 28 targets. Browning has the second-worst catchable throw rate (68%), only ahead of Cam Ward (65%). Just five out of Higgins’ 8 targets have been catchable over the last two weeks. He’s a TD-or-bust FLEX.
Jake Browning – Play the Lions D/ST.
New England at Buffalo Bills (SNF)
Must Start
Josh Allen
James Cook – This is a strength-on-strength matchup. Cook is running hotter than any RB in the league right now, but Patriots HC Mike Vrabel has his run defense playing strong (3.3 YPC allowed | fourth-fewest).
Start ‘Em
Drake Maye – The QB4 in scoring after the opening month behind only Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes. Maye is shaping up as one of the best value picks that we pushed hard here at Fantasy Points. I still question the ultimate long-term upside here – Maye has one designed carry, so all of his rushing work has been off of scrambles – but his passing has taken a big step forward year over year. Maye ranks fourth-best by completion rate over expectation and fifth-best in highly accurate throws. Buffalo hasn’t allowed much passing production this season, but I put little stock in that. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens ran all over Buffalo in Week 1, they shut down the Jets in Week 2, and then faced Tua Tagovailoa in Week 3 and Spencer Rattler in Week 4.
Hunter Henry – This is definitely more of an indictment of how bad tight end is in fantasy right now… but Henry is currently your TE1 (45.9 Half-PPR points) by a slim margin over TE2 Jake Ferguson (45.3).
Dalton Kincaid – We’re living on the edge with Kincaid because it’s the same old story here. He’s TE28 in route share and TE22 in target share… but he continues to run hot on TDs (3) and efficiency (2.24 YPRR | TE3). I’m willing to play Kincaid as a low end TE1 here, mainly because this game environment has some shootout potential and this matchup is pretty good. New England has allowed the seventh-most yards to opposing TEs.
FLEX Plays
Stefon Diggs – The Bills play the sixth-most two-high safety coverage, which will force targets to the shallow and intermediate middle of the field. Diggs took over as the Patriots primary slot receiver over Demario Douglas last week, and he posted his best game of the year (6/101 receiving). Diggs leads the Patriots in targets per route run (0.26) vs. 2-hi coverages over Hunter Henry (0.16 TPRR vs. 2-hi). Diggs is coming off of his first game with a near full-time share of routes (77%) last week.
TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson – Buffalo has been getting stomped on the ground this season, allowing a league-high 8.2% explosive run rate and robust 5.5 YPC to opposing backfields. Overall, this looks like a version of the Seahawks backfield. Stevenson is going to continue to handle grinder carries while Henderson mixes in.
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
I Give Up
Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman – Seriously, I have no idea how to handicap these Bills receivers on a weekly basis. Flip a coin? Truly, this is one of the most frustrating situations in fantasy because Allen is playing at such a high level, yet we can’t really trust any of his receivers. Coleman flopped in an easy matchup last week, paving the way for Shakir to have a decent day (5/69/1 receiving). The Patriots played more man coverage (38% of opponents’ dropbacks) with CB Christian Gonzales back last week. Coleman leads the team in targets per route run (0.24) vs. man coverage, followed by Dalton Kincaid (0.21 TPRR), Josh Palmer (0.21), and then Khalil Shakir (0.16).
Sit ‘Em
Kayshon Boutte
Josh Palmer
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (MNF)
Must Start
Patrick Mahomes – After a very quiet 2024 season for his standard, Mahomes has finished as a top-8 fantasy QB in three out of his first 4 games. Mahomes had four such performances (top-8) in all of last year combined. Jacksonville’s defense is much-improved, but you’re not shying away from Mahomes here.
Xavier Worthy – After missing two games with a torn labrum (shoulder), Worthy didn’t play a full-time role (63% route share), but he did easily lead the team in targets per route run (0.32) and first read targets (28% share). In his last 11 games (including postseason), Worthy put up 63/762/6 receiving on 83 targets while adding 16/113/1 on the ground. That’s 14.6 Half-PPR FPG (~WR9). He ran 68% of his routes lined up out wide, and he gets a great matchup here. Jacksonville is allowing the fifth-most yards per game (135.8) and second-most fantasy points per game (24.8) to opposing outside receivers.
Start ‘Em
Travis Etienne – The Chiefs aren’t giving up a ton of explosive plays on the ground, but they’re giving up a sturdy 4.4 YPC. This is mainly because Kansas City is playing so much two-high coverage (68%), which is essentially daring opposing offenses to run the ball against them. If they roll back that much 2-hi vs. the Jaguars, I’d imagine that HC Liam Coen will just take the easy wins and run the ball as much as possible in order to try and keep Mahomes off of the field. Etienne continues to play well ahead of the rookie Bhayshul Tuten. Over the last three weeks, Etienne has handled 61% of the snaps (Tuten: 22%) and has 59% of the carries (Tuten: 22%).
Travis Kelce – I’d sell for anything that you can at this point. Kelce is averaging a career-low 3.8 receptions and 45.5 yards per game. He’s just barely hanging on to low end TE1 status because the position is mostly bad in fantasy! I’d imagine I’ll be moving Kelce to weekly Sit ‘Em status when Rashee Rice is back in Week 7.
Brenton Strange – Leads the Jaguars in receptions (19) and yards (182). The Chiefs haven’t allowed much TE production this season, but they also haven’t faced many good ones. They played the Chargers dormant TEs in Week 1, they got the Dallas Goedert-less Eagles in Week 2, and the Giants in Week 3. Mark Andrews had seven catches for 30 yards last week.
FLEX Plays
Brian Thomas – The Chiefs are doing a terrific job at limiting opposing receivers this season. Right now, this is the second-most difficult matchup by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. You spent a first or early second round pick on BTJ, so it’s nearly impossible to take him out of your lineups, but this is not exactly an ideal spot for him to get it going. Thomas does easily lead the Jaguars in targets per route run (0.29) against two-high safety coverages.
Sit ‘Em
Travis Hunter – He did play a bit more WR last week, but his route share was only up to 66%.
Trevor Lawrence – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in only three out of his last 14 starts.
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt
Marquise Brown
Tyquan Thornton
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Stash ‘Em
Bhayshul Tuten
