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Week 9 Fantasy Big Board: Rest-of-Season Trade Value

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Week 9 Fantasy Big Board: Rest-of-Season Trade Value

Attention all fantasy football trade addicts: this article is for you. Here, I’ll be re-ranking the top 50 most valuable players each week, with PPR scoring in mind. You can use these rankings and writeups to make informed roster and trade decisions heading into Week 9.

These are my personal rankings, which will often differ (sometimes significantly) from consensus. If I have a player ranked higher than you believe most in your league would, I’d recommend buying that player at market price – not starting negotiations where I have the player ranked.

We just witnessed a sea change in the fantasy football landscape, as multiple QBs supporting highly fantasy-relevant players sustained injuries in Week 8. On the other side of the coin, previously injured QBs have returned to full health, and a certain rookie put on quite a show in his first opportunity. Many offenses will look drastically different going forward, meaning this was a particularly difficult week to put together rest-of-season rankings. I did my best to make sense of it all below.

As always, you’ll find the player’s positive or negative movement from the week before in parentheses.

1. Christian McCaffrey

RB1, SF (0)

McCaffrey has scored a TD in 17 straight games and still leads all RBs (aside from De'Von Achane) in FPG.

2. Tyreek Hill

WR1, MIA (0)

Over the last month, Hill has been averaging an absurd 0.99 FP/RR. On average, he scores a fantasy point every time he runs a route. I'm running out of ways to describe how insane his season has been.

3. Ja'Marr Chase

WR2, CIN (+1)

Chase still leads all WRs in XFP/G (21.5) and has a fully functioning Joe Burrow back at the helm. Oh, and the Bengals face the Vikings (7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs) and Steelers (2nd-most) in the fantasy playoffs.

4. Travis Kelce

TE1, KC (-1)

Even though the Chiefs' offense is coming off a disappointing outing, Kelce has produced equivalent to the WR6 overall over the past four weeks. It's worth noting here that Kelce faces the Bengals (most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to TEs) in Week 17. If you have a team contending for a bye, send whatever you can for this man.

5. A.J. Brown

WR3, PHI (0)

Brown is on a streak of six consecutive games with a 35.0%+ air yards share, a 25.0%+ first-read target share, and 18.0+ fantasy points. There isn't much more you could ask for.

6. Austin Ekeler

RB2, LAC (+1)

Ekeler commanded a season-high 20% target share in Week 8. He did not record a broken tackle in either of his previous two games since returning from injury but had four on Sunday. It seems his health is improving, and his snap share was also back on track (69.2%, RB8).

7. Stefon Diggs

WR4, BUF (-1)

The Bills have simply been funneling targets to Diggs. He ranks top-3 in first-read target share over the past month (41.8%).

8. Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR5, DET (+3)

Since Week 5, only Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, and A.J. Brown have averaged more receiving YPG than St. Brown (111.3). With the Lions trading for Donovan Peoples-Jones this week to zero fanfare, we have finally shut the door (about a year too late) on Twitter, worrying that any new pass-catcher the team adds will cut into St. Brown's volume.

9. Saquon Barkley

RB3, NYG (+3)

Barkley now ranks 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (20.5) after receiving a bonkers 40 total opportunities in Week 8, largely thanks to a Tyrod Taylor injury. Daniel Jones could return in Week 9, saving the Giants' offense from falling into total ruin (if they weren't already there). The Giants face a difficult remaining schedule, with all but two of their opponents ranking in the bottom half of schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs.

10. Alvin Kamara

RB4, NO (+7)

I wrote about Kamara's usage more in-depth last week, but in short, it's the best we've seen from an RB in years. He took a slight step back in Week 8 (18.0 XFP, RB7) with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller combining for 36.3% of the team's rushing attempts, but Kamara was still the only Saints RB to take a snap inside the 10-yard line (Taysom Hill notwithstanding). If this is the other shoe dropping, it's hard not to continue feeling pretty great about Kamara going forward.

11. Keenan Allen

WR6, LAC (-3)

Though his scoring has cooled off recently, Allen has averaged 21.1 XFP/G over the past month (WR7).

12. Travis Etienne Jr.

RB5, JAC (+7)

Etienne’s ankle injury was luckily not on the same side where he had Lisfranc surgery, and he ultimately returned to the game. The Jaguars have their bye in Week 9, which increases Etienne's chances of returning immediately. We've not received any indication this will be a long-term issue, so I have no qualms about continuing to rank Etienne accordingly with his 18.0 XFP/G over the past four weeks (RB5).

13. Justin Jefferson

WR7, MIN (+3)

While Kirk Cousins suffering a season-ending Achilles injury is an obvious negative, the Vikings promptly trading for Joshua Dobbs suggests they have no intentions of explicitly tanking, and that Jefferson will be back "sooner rather than later." There's only one more week until he clears IR. A player of Jefferson's caliber should be more than capable of low-end WR1 production with replacement-level QB play. The Cousins injury is likely worse for T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, who will no longer benefit from an offense averaging 39.4 pass attempts per game (1st) and a +8.6% PROE (4th). Each will likely still have fantasy utility down the stretch, but the upside scenario for either just became much less likely.

14. Davante Adams

WR8, LV (+1)

Adams was very visibly frustrated on the sideline in front of the national audience Monday night, and he has a right to be — over the past month, his air yards share (30.4%, WR32) and first-read target share (29.2%, WR22) have been comparable to Zay Flowers. However, Josh McDaniel's firing and Aidan O'Connell's promotion could be good for Adams, as he commanded a 33.0% target share when O'Connell started in Week 4.

15. Breece Hall

RB6, NYJ (+11)

Hall emerged from the bye to a 22.2% target share (RB2). He's played on 72.7% of the Jets' red zone snaps over the last month and received all but one of the goal-line attempts. Among RBs with 50+ touches, he trails only Jaleel McLaughlin in yards after contact per touch (4.30). Only Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne have averaged more FPG than Hall since Week 5. I hope you bought Hall while you still had the chance.

16. Adam Thielen

WR9, CAR (+20)

Thielen posted his highest target share of the season (35.5%) coming out of the bye, going against any fears of the Panthers’ play-caller change leading to less usage. He's averaging 22.5 XFP/G over the past month (WR2).

17. Jaylen Waddle

WR10, MIA (+15)

Waddle has been the player you drafted in Round 2 over the past month, averaging 18.6 XFP/G (WR9) and a 26.6% target share (WR15). I should have been moving him up the rankings more aggressively before this week.

18. Joe Mixon

RB7, CIN (+16)

Mixon finally converted some of those expected fantasy points into actual fantasy points in Week 8, sealing the game up with a late 4th-quarter TD. One game with a healthy Burrow has made all the difference for this entire Bengals offense, so it's now a genuine point of triumph (rather than frustration, as with Josh Jacobs) that Mixon has averaged 19.4 XFP/G over the past month (RB4) and been on the field for all 21 of the Bengals' snaps inside the 10-yard line during that timeframe. The regression is hitting, and Mixon is rising up the rankings quickly.

19. D'Andre Swift

RB8, PHI (+1)

All of Swift's metrics over the past four weeks continue to point to him being a low-end RB1, including target share (13.8%, RB10), snap share (65.3%, RB14), and XFP/G (16.3, RB9). If there's a complaint to make, it's that Swift has played on only 46.9% of the Eagles' snaps inside the 10-yard line and handled just 5 of their 11 backfield attempts in that area over the past month. On the other hand, Kenneth Gainwell just committed a costly goal-line fumble and lashed out at a fan via DM at halftime.

20. Josh Jacobs

RB9, LV (+2)

Though Jacobs was the subject of trade rumors and was drawing interest from the Ravens, no deal ultimately transpired. That leaves him languishing in Vegas, where he's seen great usage over the past month (17.2 XFP/G, RB7) but is underperforming that volume by -3.9 FPG. He (say the line, Bart) remains a buy-low candidate. I'd consider him losing any part of his massive opportunity share under a new coaching regime unlikely, but it is something to monitor in the weeks ahead.

21. Chris Olave

WR11, NO (-3)

Olave is averaging 17.4 XFP/G (WR12) this year, but just 12.7 actual FPG for -4.3 points per game below expectation. I'll keep calling him a buy-low candidate and continue suffering until some of his 1,061 total air yards (WR2) convert to the real thing.

22. Tony Pollard

RB10, DAL (-13)

Only two of the Cowboys' games have been decided by fewer than 20 points this season. Pollard plays on 77.1% of the snaps when the game is within two scores (RB6), but just 53.5% of the snaps when it isn't (would rank RB27). As a result, Pollard has averaged only 13.5 XFP/G over the past four weeks (RB14). While you probably can't sell Pollard for what he's worth (making him a hold), he has two consecutive bottom-six matchups coming up, and he isn't the efficient player we saw last season. He could certainly turn it around, but there are a few other bets I'd rather make at RB now.

23. Puka Nacua

WR12, LAR (-10)

Nacua has commanded virtually identical volume to Kupp since his return (16.4 to 16.2 XFP/G), but that usage will be entirely irrelevant if Stafford cannot play for an extended period. Nacua and Kupp can't fall too far unless we get reason to believe Stafford will be out through the fantasy playoffs (which seems unlikely), but there is a lot more certainty available with other WRs at the moment.

24. Cooper Kupp

WR13, LAR (-14)

The extent of Matthew Stafford's thumb injury is unclear, but it appears, at a minimum, he'll be a significantly less effective passer for the next game or two. At worst, an extended Brett Rypien stint would spell disaster for this entire offense, as Kupp and Nacua would likely prove too stiff of target competition for each other within a limited passing attack. I'm hedging somewhere in the middle of those outcomes for now until we hear more.

25. Kenneth Walker III

RB11, SEA (-11)

Walker played on a season-low 43.6% of snaps in Week 8, with Zach Charbonnet unexpectedly taking the lead and largely impressing with the opportunity, at least according to Pete Carroll. Walker did not enter the weekend with an injury designation but had not practiced on Wednesday or Thursday due to a calf injury. It's possible the team wanted to give Walker a breather and intends to use him as they did from Weeks 1-7 going forward, but there's also a chance Charbonnet continues to mix in heavily, especially as a pass-catcher and pass blocker (Charbonnet's 52.6% route share was the 8th-highest among all RBs this week). The added uncertainty means Walker has to fall in these rankings, but he could certainly bounce right back into the top 15 if this reverses next week. I'd still be happy to swap him for any RB I have ranked higher.

26. Jonathan Taylor

RB12, IND (-3)

Taylor oddly received only two touches in the second half after visibly limping off the field, but he still played on 64.3% of the snaps after that point, adding supporting evidence to Shane Steichen's claim that Taylor was not injured. Taylor even ran a 68.2% route share in the second half, but commanded only one target. All of Zack Moss's second-half carries came on a single series, so somewhat weird touch distribution results in a negative game script aside, Taylor still has a chance of taking over this backfield going forward. He just hit a season-high 61.2% snap share, after all.

27. Bijan Robinson

RB13, ATL (-6)

Robinson's usage was largely unchanged from where it was in Weeks 1-6, ranking top 5 at the position in route share (65.1%) but still splitting work on the ground (42.3% team rush attempt share) with Tyler Allgeier. Robinson at least played on all three of the Falcons' snaps inside the 10-yard line, but they were all passing plays, so we can't necessarily infer goal-line attempts from that. Robinson remains a player who will have to rely on his explosiveness (0.38 MTF/attempt, RB1) to return fantasy value above and beyond his volume, which he's largely failed to do over his past three non-sick games (12.7 FPG).

28. CeeDee Lamb

WR14, DAL (+5)

Lamb catapulted himself back up to 18.7 FPG (WR10) on the season by dropping a 40-burger. I'm still wary of this Cowboys offense in which Lamb has surpassed a 20% target share in only three games this season, but the weekly upside is high enough that he deserves to be ranked as a fringe WR1.

29. Jalen Hurts

QB1, PHI (-4)

Hurts leads all QBs in FPG over the past four weeks (26.2) and has been deadly accurate this season with a league-leading 6.3% CPOE. He could have had an even bigger day if not for a rare goal-line fumble resulting in what felt like the first failure of the Brotherly Shove" all season.

30. Josh Allen

QB2, BUF (-6)

Three of Allen's next four opponents rank top 12 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. However, his playoff matchups are significantly more difficult than a player like Jalen Hurts, which may be something to consider if you're planning to trade for an elite QB.

31. Justin Herbert

QB3, LAC (-4)

Don't let a conservative gameplan against a pathetic Bears secondary fool you; though Herbert's aDOT fell to just 4.8 in Week 8 as he attempted only three throws of 20+ yards, it's important to note the context of deep threat Joshua Palmer playing hurt for most of the game. The health and poor depth of the Chargers' WRs are concerns moving forward, but that's not enough to ding Herbert (who still has only one performance with fewer than 20.0 fantasy points) too significantly.

32. Patrick Mahomes II

QB4, KC (-4)

Despite the horrific result, Week 8 was Mahomes' best performance of the season by accurate throw percentage (65.8%). He was pressured on 50.0% of his dropbacks, the 13th-most of any QB in a single game this season. QBs have averaged only 15.7 FPG in games they were pressured on half or more of their dropbacks this year (min. 25 dropbacks). In addition, Mahomes was on the injury report with an illness entering the game, so he may just not have been capable of fully focusing. On the bright side, Rashee Rice ran the most routes of any Chiefs WR (59.1% route share), as the team finally seems to be recognizing him (2.80 YPRR, WR9) as the best offensive weapon they have behind Travis Kelce. That bodes well for Mahomes going forward, especially with the Dolphins (6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to QBs) and Eagles (7th-most) up next.

33. De'Von Achane

RB14, MIA (+2)

Unless he suffers a setback, Achane will miss only one more game before returning. The Dolphins' running game could use him, as the team has sputtered for only 123 rushing yards over the past two games (27th) on 3.2 YPC (28th). Achane seemed close to taking the lead in the backfield before going down, running a route on 52.4% of the team's dropbacks and receiving five of the backfield's seven opportunities inside the 10-yard line in his last two games. I've written ad nauseam about his explosiveness and the massive advantage he could offer teams down the stretch. It may be difficult to trade for him now, but bye-contending teams should certainly try.

34. Lamar Jackson

QB5, BAL (-5)

Jackson has only two more matchups against defenses ranking in the bottom half of schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to QBs: the Browns in Week 10 (11th-fewest) and the 49ers in Week 15 (5th-fewest).

35. Joe Burrow

QB6, CIN (+10)

Burrow is back to full health, as he initiated multiple dropbacks from under center and exceeded seven rushing yards for the first time all year. He also averaged 0.73 fantasy points per dropback, which would rank 1st among all qualifying QBs this season. The Bengals have been the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL by PROE this year (+10.2%).

36. Marquise Brown

WR15, ARI (+3)

Brown has never dipped below a 20% target share since Week 2 and has averaged a cool 16.7 XFP/G (WR16) over the past month. We may have to wait one more week for Kyler Murray's much-anticipated return, but Brown should become an excellent fantasy asset going forward from there. The Joshua Dobbs trade only points further to this team planning to get Murray under center soon.

37. Brandon Aiyuk

WR16, SF (-7)

Aiyuk's production with Deebo Samuel out over the past few games has been disappointing, but each of the 49ers' next four opponents ranks top-12 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs, so things will likely look up soon. He is still the team's only downfield threat (46.8% air yards share over the past month, WR7).

38. Jakobi Meyers

WR17, LV (-7)

Not even Meyers was going to come out of the Raiders' disaster of a Monday night game looking good, but his usage has remained better than Davante Adams' over the past four weeks (16.5 XFP/G, WR17). However, that could change if the new regime is motivated to keep Adams happy (as they should be). The Raiders also face a tough schedule going forward, as three of their next four opponents rank bottom-12 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs.

39. Jahmyr Gibbs

RB15, DET (-1)

Gibbs leads all RBs in FPG (28.8) over the past two games thanks to incredible usage with David Montgomery out, including 64.9% of team rush attempts (RB5) and running a route on 74.0% of team dropbacks (RB2). Of course, Gibbs saw nothing close to this volume earlier in the season when both he and Montgomery were healthy, which will likely be our reality once again after the Lions' bye. However, I'll give a little benefit of the doubt to OC Ben Johnson and assume he'll now make it a point to draw up some draws, screens, and outside runs to get Gibbs in space where he excels, while Montgomery returns to handle the between-the-tackles grinding. That probably amounts to an RB2 rest-of-season, but one with league-breaking upside (as we've just witnessed) should Montgomery get hurt or the coaching staff fall in love with the explosive rookie.

40. Tee Higgins

WR18, CIN (-3)

In the first game all season in which both Joe Burrow and Higgins have been somewhat healthy, he posted his 2nd-best yardage total despite running a route on only 63.2% of the team's dropbacks. When Higgins is back to his full-time role (likely in the next week, if his route share continues to increase linearly), hope for him to finally produce as the high-end WR2 we'd hoped for in the Bengals' +10.2% PROE (2nd) passing attack.

41. Michael Pittman Jr.

WR19, IND (0)

Pittman is averaging 17.7 FPG in Gardner Minshew's starts (would rank WR12) and has commanded at least a 20.0% target share in every game this season. The Colts are averaging 70.0 plays per game (6th), which has helped keep both Pittman and Josh Downs fantasy-relevant.

42. Javonte Williams

RB16, DEN (+Previously Outside Top-50)

For all the discussion on Breece Hall's upside in the second half of the season after he got up to full speed in his ACL recovery, little has been made about Javonte Williams' parallel situation. Just when I was ready to write him off as doomed to a committee with Jaleel Mclaughlin forever, Williams saw season-highs in snap share (67.7%), rush attempt share (67.5%), and XFP (21.4) while playing on every snap inside the 10-yard line and receiving every backfield opportunity in that area of the field. It wasn't long ago Williams was considered a prospect on par with or better than Najee Harris and Travis Etienne before injuries largely derailed the start of his career. If he's finally healthy and commanding a clear lead role in his backfield, he has to be ranked inside the top 50.

43. Garrett Wilson

WR20, NYJ (+6)

Wilson has been doing the impossible (producing 14.3 FPG as a low-end WR2 with Zach Wilson at the helm) over the past month. To pull it off, he's only had to lead the NFL in first-read target share (47.5%) and command the volume of a WR1 (20.5 XFP/G, WR8). Even if there's little chance of him ever living up to that, it's hard to keep usage like that outside of the top 50, especially when he's produced decently of late.

44. David Montgomery

RB17, DET (0)

Montgomery has now missed two games but is likely to be back after the Lions' bye. In games with both Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery healthy and active this year, Montgomery has averaged 23.0 carries, 18.0 XFP/G (would rank RB6), and 20.3 FPG (would rank RB5). Of course, that was before Gibbs impressed during Montgomery's absence, which could mean a more even split going forward. Still, the possibility for Montgomery to return to RB1 status exists. However, I consider Montgomery achieving that outcome less likely than Gibbs doing so, meaning Montgomery is accordingly ranked a bit lower.

45. Mark Andrews

TE2, BAL (+1)

Andrews gets a bit of a value bump if only because Kirk Cousins' injury has made it much less likely for T.J. Hockenson to match his previous production over the second half of the season, making TE even more scarce. Andrews faces a fairly tough remaining schedule but does get the Dolphins (6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to TEs) in Week 17.

46. Derrick Henry

RB18, TEN (+Previously Outside Top-50)

It only took a bevy of injuries to QBs around the league and an exciting performance out of Will Levis, but I'm finally willing to consider Henry back in the top 50. Henry has averaged 18.1 XFP/G (would rank RB6) and 19.7 FPG (would rank RB5) in the Titans' wins this season, but just 9.8 XFP/G and 11.1 FPG in losses. Levis is by no means a sure thing, but a toolsy young QB at least has the upside to give this team a fighting chance against much of their remaining schedule, which includes two games against the 3-4 Texans and a game apiece against the 3-4 Colts, the 3-4 Buccaneers, and the 1-6 Panthers. Henry has the potential for difference-making performances in these spots, which is more than can be said for a lot of the field at RB right now.

47. DeAndre Hopkins

WR21, TEN (+Previously Outside Top-50)

While about 15 other WRs are seeing roughly Hopkins' level of volume (14.5 XFP/G over the past month), I try to reserve these spots for players with upside to rise significantly above their peers going forward. We have no idea whether Will Levis is good — in fact, even a couple of his TD throws in Week 8 looked a bit questionable. But the possibility for Hopkins (who boasts a top-10 air yards share and a top-15 target share this season) to suddenly be paired with a capable deep ball thrower means I'll personally prioritize him over the Diontae Johnsons and Terry McLaurins of the world. Levis could be a disaster on Thursday and leave me with egg on my face for both this and the Henry ranking, but buying pieces of this offense will be near-impossible afterward if he succeeds.

48. DK Metcalf

WR22, SEA (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Metcalf has averaged 22.0 XFP/G and a 40.4% first-read target share over his last two contests. He's received 4.0 end zone targets yet has failed to score a touchdown. If he continues seeing usage like this, he's bound to see positive regression. I like him as a buy-low on few managers' radars right now given Jaxon Smith-Njgba's increased playing time and whatever Jake Bobo is currently doing.

49. Kyren Williams

RB19, LAR (-1)

There's not yet much clarity on Matthew Stafford's thumb injury, as he's been called everything from an IR candidate (by Ian Rapoport) to day-to-day (by Sean McVay more recently). This shouldn't affect Williams too much in theory if they both return around Week 12, but there’s no guarantee of that.

50. DeVonta Smith

WR23, PHI (-7)

Smith caught all seven of his targets and got into the end zone against a pathetic Commanders secondary (most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WRs), but his overall usage was no better than he's seen all season — just an 18.4% target share and 63 total air yards. This is a clear sell-high opportunity, as Smith is averaging only 11.8 XFP/G (WR39) over the past four weeks. I'd expect the usage to improve slightly from here, and Smith is explosive enough to continue piling up YAC in an Eagles offense hitting its stride, but I'd seriously be happy to cash in right now and avoid all of those maybes.

Just outside the top-50

Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Nico Collins, Amari Cooper, Zay Flowers, T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, Tua Tagovailoa, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, James Cook, Rachaad White, D.J. Moore, Jordan Addison, James Conner

Ryan is a young marketing professional who takes a data-based approach to every one of his interests. He uses the skills gained from his economics degree and liberal arts education to weave and contextualize the stories the numbers indicate. At Fantasy Points, Ryan hopes to play a part in pushing analysis in the fantasy football industry forward.