Stat-pack is back and better than ever. I’m going team by team to give you the goods on fantasy scoring, player usage, schemes, and more as we head into Week 2. This article is a review piece first, but a lot of the stats and trends in here will spill over into your lineup decisions this coming week.
We’re onto Week 4!
Arizona Cardinals
Rondale Moore is still just a part-time player. Through three weeks, he’s run a route on just 45.6% of the Cardinals passing plays – which makes him a distant No. 4 on the depth chart behind Christian Kirk (69.3%) and AJ Green (86.8%).
Moore ran just 14 routes in Week 3 vs. the Jaguars.
Chase Edmonds is fifth among RBs in target share (16.7%) behind Swift (18.5%), McCaffrey (20.5%), Harris (20.9%), and Kamara (21.9%).
Even though Edmonds’ role is more valuable, he still lacks TD upside. The Cardinals have run 10 plays inside of the 5-yard line and James Conner has been on the field for 7 of them.
Atlanta Falcons
Mike Davis’ snap count has declined in every game from Weeks 1-3: 54 > 46 > 37.
Davis’ routes have also fallen in three-straight games: 34 > 28 > 19.
Meanwhile, Cordarelle Patterson’s snaps have remained stagnant: 24 > 24 > 26.
Here’s the full list of RBs with more targets than Patterson (16) so far: Najee Harris, D’Andre Swift, Chase Edmonds, Christian McCaffrey, Kenyan Drake, and Mike Davis.
Why isn’t Kyle Pitts producing? Well, the good news is that he’s running a route on 81.5% of the Falcons’ passing plays – which is the sixth-highest involvement rate among TEs.
The bad news? Pitts isn’t earning targets. He’s been targeted on just 14% of his routes run – which ranks 23rd among TEs and is behind Jordan Akins and Zach Ertz.
Meanwhile, Calvin Ridley has been highly involved. His target shares through three games are 23% > 21% > 31%.
Pitts’ target shares are 23% > 12% > 8%.
Matt Ryan’s aDOT has plummeted to 4.4 yards downfield, last in the league.
Last year, Ryan’s aDOT was 8.7 yards (sixth-highest).
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens RB touches through three games: Ty’Son Williams (32), Latavius Murray (26), Devonta Freeman (5).
Marquise Brown’s three drops were worth 35.6 FP.
Brown’s drops cost Lamar Jackson 17.8 FP.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen got off to a slow start (for his standards) in Weeks 1-2 with QB19 (17.2 FP) and QB22 (16.7 FP) scoring weeks, but got out of his rut in a hurry in Week 3.
Allen’s 37.2 FP in Week 3 marks the eighth time that he has scored 30+ FP in his last 20 games since the start of the 2020 season.
Zack Moss took over as the Bills No. 1 back against Washington as he played on 44 snaps to Devin Singletary’s 34.
Carolina Panthers
After Christian McCaffrey went down, Chubba Hubbard played on 39 of 50 possible snaps while Royce Freeman got 11 snaps.
Hubbard was involved on 20-of-27 passing plays (74%).
Panthers WR target share through three games: Moore (29%) / Marshall (13%) / Anderson (10%).
Carolina is the only team yet to trail in a game so far. Their next six games are fairly easy, too (vs. Dallas, Philadelphia, Minnesota, New York Giants, Atlanta, and New England).
Sam Darnold in three seasons with the Jets: 60% completion rate, 6.6 YPA, 78.6 passer rating.
Darnold so far with the Panthers: 68% completions, 8.3 YPA, 99 passer rating.
Chicago Bears
Both things can be true: Justin Fields was very bad in his debut. Matt Nagy’s game-plan was also very bad.
Fields held the ball for way too long first and foremost. He averaged the slowest time to throw (2.89 seconds) from a clean pocket in Week 3.
It’s not like the Browns sent a lot of heat, either. They blitzed Fields just 20% of the time.
Fields’ 9 sacks taken were the most in a single-game by a rookie QB since Luke Falk took 9 sacks in Week 5, 2019 and when Greg McElroy took 11 sacks in Week 16, 2012.
So, while most of those sacks were on Fields for not processing the field fast enough, Nagy did an extremely poor job taking advantage of Fields’ strengths as a runner. Fields had just 2 (two!!) designed carries. That is inexcusable.
Cincinnati Bengals
Most fantasy points scored by a rookie WR in their first three games since 2000: Anquan Boldin (70.8), Roy Williams (68.8), Terry McLaurin (59.7), Calvin Ridley (57.2), and Ja’Marr Chase (56.8).
Chase is also just one of five receivers to start their careers with 4 TDs in their first three games all-time.
Dating back to last year, Joe Mixon has seen at least 19 opportunities (carries + targets) in nine-straight games for an average of 24.3 per game.
For reference, Dalvin Cook averages 24.4 opportunities per game since the start of the 2019 season.
The problem Mixon is facing is a lack of TD upside… The Bengals have had just 6 drives reach the red-zone this season, which is third-fewest ahead of only the Jaguars (5) and Jets (3).
Through three games, the Bengals have gone 57.9% pass-heavy in the first 3 quarters when the game is within a score (22nd).
Last year, the Bengals were 62.2% pass-heavy in neutral situations (5th).
Cleveland Browns
In his 2021 debut, Odell Beckham led the Browns in routes (35), targets (9), and yards (77).
Beckham gets to face the Vikings next and they have allowed 20 or more FP to a single receiver in every game so far.
Dallas Cowboys
Since the start of 2020, Tony Pollard has gained 10 or more rushing yards on 15 of his 128 carries (11.7%).
In that same span, Ezekiel Elliott has gained 10 or more yards on 27 of his 288 carries (9.4%).
In this span, Pollard is fourth-best in yards after contact per attempt.
Elliott ranks 27th-of-48 RBs in YAC.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams ranks third-best in missed tackles forced per carry according to PFF.
Melvin Gordon ranks 29th-of-44 RBs.
Teddy Bridgewater only threw the ball 9 times in the second-half in Week 3 while Gordon and Williams combined for 22 carries.
The Broncos have had the easiest schedule by defensive efficiency so far as their opponents are a combined 0-9.
Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift is currently the RB3 by FPG (20.0).
Swift’s 23 targets ranks second among RBs and would be 25th among WRs.
Swift is running 26 routes per game, which is fifth-most among RBs just slightly behind Austin Ekeler (26.3).
Green Bay Packers
Over his last 17 games, Davante Adams has 141 receptions, 1,624 yards, and 19 TDs.
That works out to 24.6 FPG in this 17 game stretch.
The most FPG in a single-season all-time by a WR was Jerry Rice back in 1987 (26.2 FPG) where he scored 22 TDs in 12 games.
Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks’ last five games dating back to last year: 7/141/1 > 11/166/2 > 5/132 > 9/78/2 > 9/112.
Cooks’ WR finishes in this stretch: WR7 > WR1 > WR22 > WR10 > WR11.
Davis Mills has attempted 46 passes this season. Cooks has been targeted on 20 of them (44%).
Indianapolis Colts
For some reason, the Colts saw Jonathan Taylor turn his 7 targets into 60 yards in Week 1 and then decided he stinks in the passing game? Taylor got 4 targets in Weeks 2-3 combined.
Once again, HC Frank Reich’s obsession with playing Nyheim Hines in obvious passing situations is hurting Taylor. Hines has out-snapped Taylor 68 to 45 on passing downs per PFF.
Carson Wentz has attempted 106 passes this season and Michael Pittman has been targeted on 26 of them (25% share).
Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson got it done with 15/88/1 on the ground and 6/46 receiving against Arizona, but he still split snaps with Carlos Hyde (59% to 34% in favor of Robinson).
HC Urban Meyer tried to get Trevor Lawrence going with a few designed carries (3) after not using him as a runner at all in his first two starts.
Since the merger, four quarterbacks have started their first three games and thrown 2 or more INTs: Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning, Jim Zorn… and Lawrence.
DJ Chark is tied for the league lead with Davante Adams in targets of 15 or more air yards (12) – but only 5 of those targets have been catchable.
Kansas City Chiefs
Despite fumbling twice in two games, Andy Reid stuck with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Week 3 and gave him 19 touches.
This marks just the sixth time in 18 career games where CEH has seen 18 or more touches in a game.
Travis Kelce has finished as a top-5 scoring tight end in a staggering 16 of his last 18 games. Unreal.
Las Vegas Raiders
Prior to Week 2, Henry Ruggs had never seen more than 5 targets in any of his 14 career games.
Ruggs has now gotten 7 targets in back-to-back games.
With Josh Jacobs sidelined, Kenyan Drake played on just 43% of the Raiders snaps in Week 3.
Derek Carr has gone over 300 yards in seven-straight games dating back to last year for an average of 372.4 yards per game.
Carr is averaging 23.9 FPG in this span and it’s not been against pushover defenses either (IND / LAC / MIA / DEN / BAL / PIT / MIA).
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams is currently the WR2 in FPG (25.2).
The biggest change in 2021 is Williams’ role. 21 of his 31 targets have traveled 10 or fewer yards in the air (68%).
Last year, just 44% of Williams’ targets were 10 or fewer yards downfield.
Williams already has five end-zone targets, which is second-most in the league.
Austin Ekeler’s snap rate has risen in three-straight games: 58% > 63% > 74%.
Ekeler has 11 carries in the red-zone while Larry Rountree has just 3 and Justin Jackson has 2.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp is currently the WR1 in FPG (30.4).
Kupp is the only WR to see at least 30% of his team’s targets in every game so far.
Meanwhile, Robert Woods’ target share is 20%.
With Darrell Henderson (ribs) sidelined, Michel took over the backfield and dominated both snaps (75%) and touches (23) in his spot start.
Michel ran 23 routes while Jake Funk ran 12.
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins WR routes run in Will Fuller’s first game of the year: Jaylen Waddle (57), DeVante Parker (54), and Fuller (43).
Jacoby Brissett’s target distribution in Week 3 was: Waddle (13), Mike Gesicki (12), Parker (7), Fuller (6), Gaskin (6).
Waddle’s 58 yards were the fewest a receiver has ever had with 12 or more catches in NFL history (H/T Dolan).
Minnesota Vikings
Alex Mattison has made three starts in his career and he is averaging 18.9 fantasy points and 115.3 scrimmage yards per game in those starts.
Since being made a full-time player in Week 3 of last season, Justin Jefferson is averaging 17.8 FPG across his last 16 contests.
In this same span, Adam Thielen has averaged 17.5 FPG.
New England Patriots
Jonnu Smith has run a route on just 49-of-136 passing plays this season.
Meanwhile, Hunter Henry has been involved on 88-of-136 passing plays.
New Orleans Saints
Until Michael Thomas gets healthy, Alvin Kamara is the only Saint you can trust. Last week, the Saints went with a rotation at WR with Marquez Callaway (16), Deonte Harris (15), Ty Montgomery (11), Kenny Stills (10), and Chris Hogan (7) all rotating in on the Saints 26 passing plays.
Kamara’s role is pretty insane, though. It’s in CMC territory. Kamara is handling 77% of the Saints carries and leads all RBs in target share (22%).
For reference, Kamara handled just 56% of Saints’ carries last year.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley’s snap rate (48% > 84% > 88%), routes run (17 > 32 > 37), and touches (11 > 15 > 22) have risen in three-straight games.
In his first game of the season, Evan Engram ran a route on 31 of Daniel Jones’ 46 dropbacks.
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles TE routes run through three games: Goedert (74), Ertz (71).
Jalen Hurts’ target distribution (on 97 throws): Smith (21), Reagor (19), Goedert (11), Ertz (11), Sanders (11), Gainwell (10), Watkins (7).
One big surprise is just how much Kenny Gainwell is playing in the red-zone. The Eagles have run 11 plays inside of the 10-yard line, and Gainwell has played 6 snaps while Miles Sanders has played 5.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris’ 19 targets in Week 3 are the second-most ever by a running back (H/T JJ Zachariason).
How dusty is Big Ben? Well, on his non-pressured pass attempts, Ben Roethlisberger is averaging just 6.3 YPA… which is third-worst ahead of only Jacoby Brissett (4.1) and Trevor Lawrence (6.2).
Out of Big Ben’s 103 throws, 25% have been behind the line of scrimmage (second-highest rate).
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are the first team since the merger to have 11 different players score a TD to start the first three games of a season…
… and none of them are George Kittle.
Brandon Aiyuk was restored to a full-time role in Week 3 as he ran a route on 44-of-48 dropbacks.
Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson came through with 12/80/1 on the ground, but he only played on 43% of the team’s snaps.
For some odd reason, Carson only ran 9 routes in Week 3. He ran 19 and 18 in Weeks 1-2, so maybe it was a bit of aberration.
Russell Wilson leads all QBs in YPA and passer rating… but is 26th in pass attempts. That’s Pete Carroll in a nutshell.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here are the Bucs’ play-calling tendencies so far…
In neutral situations (score within 8 points in the 1st-3rd quarter): 71.1% pass – highest in the league.
When trailing: 79.1% pass – second-highest.
When leading: 71.6% pass – highest.
On early downs: 75% pass – highest.
In the red-zone: 74.2% pass – highest.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry’s fantasy point totals in the Titans last seven wins: 20.2 > 38.5 > 36.2 > 25.2 > 37 > 47.7 > 18.7 (average of 31.9 FPG).
Even with AJ Brown (hamstring) out, Julio Jones only ran a route on 18 of Ryan Tannehill’s 33 dropbacks in Week 3.
Washington
Once again, we are seeing the same problem as last year with Antonio Gibson. So far, JD McKissic has run more routes (54 to 50) than Gibson and out-snapped him on third downs (31 to 6).
Since the start of last season, Antonio Gibson has three (3!!) targets on third and fourth downs…
… JD McKissic has 36.
Taylor Heinicke’s target distribution so far (85 throws): Terry McLaurin (25), Logan Thomas (14), Adam Humphries (13), Dyami Brown (11), McKissic (8), Gibson (6).
