Here’s my very quick look at the week (this week it actually will be quick).
If you want more information and analysis, you can always read our Week 13 Game Hubs.
New York Giants (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Players I like more than usual: Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa
Players I’m neutral on: Kenny Golladay, Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker
Players I like less than usual: Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Mike Glennon
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: It’s Mike Glennon for the Giants against a defense that destroyed the mobile Cam Newton last week, and Glennon will not have Kadarius Toney or Sterling Shepard. Kenny Golladay may actually get 7+ targets, but he has been worthless, and Evan Engram is very worthless, so I think the Giants will be crushed. That’s not good news for Saquon Barkley, and the Dolphins are giving up 119.7 scrimmage yards per game and 4.8 yards per touch to RBs this season.
First of all, the Miami defense should feast. I apologized a month ago for picking them as my top DST target this summer, but they’re currently the #2 fantasy defense, so I guess I take that apology back. I like Myles Gaskin to get it done with some volume, since Phillip Lindsay is not expected to play, and the matchup is decent. Tua Tagovailoa has been solid, and the Giants have no pass rush and are down possibly their best corner in Adoree Jackson, so I also like Jaylen Waddle. It looks like DeVante Parker will play, which is good news for Tua but bad news for Mike Gesicki, whose numbers are down when Parker plays. Flash Gesicki has flashed this year, but the guy is under 10 FP in five straight, so he’s a desperation play only. Adam Shaheen is doubtful, but Miami will probably throw 5+ times to freaking Durham Smyth.
Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Houston Texans (2-9)
Players I like more than usual: Jonathan Taylor,
Players I’m neutral on: Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, Jack Doyle, Brandin Cooks, Tyrod Taylor
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Rex Burkhead, TY Hilton
Notes: The Colts did just have to put C Ryan Kelly on the covid list, so he won’t play, which is a buzzkill for Jonathan Taylor. So instead of rushing for 175 yards with 3 TDs, he’ll only get 150 yards and 2 TDs. TY Hilton has been a Texan killer, and he did look good last week, so that’s a real angle to me for those desperate, and it prompts me to pull back from expectations with Michael Pittman, whose targets are down and who had just 2/35 receiving on three targets in this matchup earlier this season. But it is a great matchup, so I still view Pittman as a solid play. Carson Wentz continues to play well overall, but his upside may be capped if Taylor takes over again. Wentz threw for 223/2 on just 23 attempts (YPA) in Indy’s lopsided victory over Houston in mid-October and we may see something similar. You can use Jack Doyle if desperate, since he has 3+ catches, 30+ yards, and 5+ targets in three straight games. But I don’t trust Frank Reich much in terms of leaning on certain players consistently. Heck, Taylor has a couple of pitiful games this year in terms of his touches, and he’s the best player in the NFL this year.
For the Texans, I’m probably starting Rex Burkhead over Rhamaondre Stephenson this week, assuming David Johnson is out, which is expected. The Colts have been tough on RBs this year, but the top-2 Buccaneer RBs last week totaled 168 yards with 5 TDs against them. They’re now giving up 5.2 YPC and 4.8/53 receiving to RBs in their last four, so Rex has a chance to come through with 15-20 opportunities. Of course, knowing the Texans, they could give Royce Freeman 10+ carries. Yet, while I’d expect Freeman to play, I have to think Rex will be the main guy, as they are still trying hard to win now. Brandin Cooks has an illness this week and was only able to get in a limited practice Friday, so with just eight combined targets over the last two games, he’s hardly a must-start. I’d rather not use Tyrod Taylor, since the Colts have limited guys like Tom Brady, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawrence each to fewer than 230 passing yards lately.
Minnesota Vikings (5-6) at Detroit Lions (0-10)
Players I like more than usual: Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison, Kirk Cousins, Jamaal Williams
Players I’m neutral on: Adam Thielen, TJ Hockenson, Jared Goff
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Josh Reynolds, Tyler Conklin
Notes: You’re using both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but we do all think it’s a Jefferson game, just like we thought it was in Week 5, when he had 7/124 receiving on eight targets in this matchup. They play more zone, so that’s the thought process. Tyler Conklin managed just 2/25 receiving on three targets in this matchup back in Week 5, but TEs are getting 11+ targets a game against the Lions in their last four, good for 7.5/74 receiving, so I like him as a sleeper. Kirk Cousins has thrown for multiple scores in four straight and while he got just 1 TD in this matchup earlier this year, he was good and completed 25/34 passes for 275 yards (8.1 YPA). FWIW, I do trust Alexander Mattison this year after he really let us down in a start for Dalvin Cook last year. He’s been a lot more decisive, so he’s looked quicker and better. And we’re looking at 20+ opportunities for sure. The Lions have been decent against RBs lately, but let’s face it; it’s a great matchup. Mattison also somehow has averaged 21.2 FPG in this matchup in his last three, averaging 123 scrimmage yards.
The Vikings will get DT Michael Pierce back, which will help their run defense, but they are going to miss stud LB Eric Kendricks, who is out. Jamaal Williams will be the workhorse, and he’s a solid RB2 with a large role and 20+ opportunities likely. Josh Reynolds did look good last week with his boy Jared Goff, and he’s certain to get WR1 treatment barring a complete shutdown by the Viking secondary, which is unlikely. We still don’t know about Patrick Peterson getting off the Covid list, but as of Saturday at 5pm ET, it was not looking good because PP was still on the list. The Vikings are giving up the second-most receiving yards (189.3) and 14.5 YPR to WRs this season, and Goff should be able to get off 35+ attempts in this one. The Vikes have been tough on TEs, though, so I can’t say I love, love TJ Hockenson, who managed just 2/22 receiving on three targets in this matchup earlier in Week 5. They’re giving up the third-fewest FPG (8.4) to TEs this season, but no Kendricks does help A LOT.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) at New York Jets (3-8)
Players I like more than usual: Miles Sanders
Players I’m neutral on: Elijah Moore, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Jamison Crowder
Players I like less than usual: Zack Wilson
Longshot Plays: Ty Johnson
Notes: It’s looking like it’s Gardner Minshew, and I think the commitment to the run will be just as strong as it’s been, and there should be more rushing yards for the RBs to collect. Minshew may prove to be a better passer than Jalen Hurts on this day, but it’s tough to feel great about DeVonta Smith. He’s usually open and he is good, so he’s certainly not a lost cause like Dallas Goedert is. Goedert has now finished with fewer than eight FP in three of his last four, so he’s more desperation play than anything. With Jordan Howard out again and Boston Scott out of practice all week, Miles Sanders (who himself has an ankle issue) has to be a good play. He was a full-go in practice Thursday and Friday, and while the Jets defense is actually better than people think, they won’t likely have DL Sheldon Rankins, and they have been the best RB matchup for RBs all season long, allowing a league-high 35.8 FPG to the position. If Scott is active, and I’m told he will be, then he’ll be worth using if you need him. Also, our Greg Cosell said Jalen Reagor looked good running routes last week, so he’s not hopeless, but you’d have to be very desperate to use him.
No matter how you slice it, it’s a tough spot for Elijah Moore, who saw a season-high 88% snap share and 8+ targets last week, but his run of double-digit FP was snapped because Zack Wilson stinks. At least Keelan Cole (COVID) and Corey Davis (groin) are both likely out. But the Eagles are giving up the third-fewest FPG (28.0) to WRs this season and have the elite Darius Slay to cover Moore outside and the elite Avonte Maddox. It was an ugly three-man backfield last week with some guy named “Austin Walter” seeing a 24% snap share, so this is a backfield to avoid. The Eagles are giving up the fifth-most receptions per game (6.7) to RBs, so I’d go Ty Johnson over the other scrubs like Walter and Tevin Coleman.
Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Chicago Bears (4-7)
Players I like more than usual: James Conner, Darnell Mooney
Players I’m neutral on: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, David Montgomery, Cole Kmet
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: AJ Green
Notes: I’m surprised Kyler Murray is still iffy to play, but he is expected to go, so you have to use him. The Bears are giving up the 11th-fewest FPG (18.1) to QBs this season, but they’ve played some real bums and even Jared Goff looked good against them. I like AJ Green as play, with or without DeAndre Hopkins. It would probably be ideal for Green if Hopkins is in, since the Bears have just one good corner in Jaylen Johnson, who should be on D-Hop a lot. It’s a very decent matchup if you need Christian Kirk or Rondall Moore on the lower end. I personally don’t trust Zach Ertz compared to most top-10 guys, but he’s a fine option if you’re fairly desperate. He’s got 3+ catches in each of his first five games with the Cards, and Mark Andrews (8/73), and Pat Freiermuth (5/43/2) have each gone off in this matchup over their last three games. If LB Roquan Smith (hamstring) is out this week, that would be big, since he’s usually the TE matchup. James Conner has seen 77% of the snaps in three straight and he will make it four straight barring injury with Chase Edmonds out again this week. The Bears are giving up the 14th-fewest FPG (22.4) to RBs this season, but they’re hurting with DT Akiem Hicks likely out and LB (Roquon) Smith pretty damn questionable with a hamstring. Plus, LB Khalil Mack is still on IR. They also are giving up 6 catches per game to RBs, so Conner is looking good with 20+ touches.
It’ll be Andy Dalton for the Bears again, but I don’t trust him with a tougher matchup and with WRs Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin out. The Cards are giving up the third-fewest FPG (15.7) to QBs this season, including the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (219.5). But there are not many WRs in the league right now who are as reliable as Darnell Mooney, who’s averaging 10 targets a game his last four and has 12+ FP in four straight. Tyler Lockett went for 4/115 in this matchup in Arizona’s last game, and that was with a struggling Russell Wilson, so I like Mooney yet again this week. The Cardinal corners are certainly beatable. Cole Kmet still hasn’t entered my circle of trust, so he’s more of a use-him-if-you-need-him guy. Jimmy Graham is still alive and has exactly three targets in three straight games, plus Kmet has yet to score a TD and the Cardinals have given up more than eight FP to a TE just once this season. That’s because they are very athletic at LB, most likely. David Montgomery has been a buzzkill, but his usage is tops in the league the last three weeks, with 84% of the snaps or more. He’s hardly hopeless, since the Cardinals are giving up a generous 4.7 YPC to RBs, but it’s overall a tougher matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Players I like more than usual: Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert
Players I’m neutral on: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Austin Eckler, Mike Williams
Players I like less than usual: Tyler Boyd
Longshot Plays: Jared Cook
Notes: There aren’t many angles to hang your hat on for the Chargers offense other than Keenan Allen’s matchup in the slot, which is good. Allen has just 2 TDs on the season, but he’s seen ridiculous volume since their Week 7 bye and the Bengals give up the sixth-most FPG and the 11th-most yards per game to slot receivers the last eight weeks, as CB Mike Hilton has actually been the weak link in their secondary. Mike Williams continues to mostly disappoint and it’s not the greatest matchup, so it’s fair at this point to be less than optimistic. Of course, he’s capable of having a big game, so some need to suck it up and keep using him. Jared Cook is TD-dependent, and he did score last week and Pat Freiermuth (4/40/1 receiving) and Darren Waller (7/116) have gone off in this matchup since Week 10. Justin Herbert has thrown for multiple TDs in four of his five games, and he’s also run for 126 yards on 13 carries in the last two games, which is a key because the Bengals are giving up the third-fewest passing TDs per game (1.3) and the seventh-fewest FPG (17.3) to QBs, But I like the potential for a mini-shootout here.
The Bengals offense goes through Joe Mixon right now and he has 24+ FP in four straight. He’s an obvious play, especially since the matchup couldn’t be better against a Chargers’ defense that’s giving up a league-high 119.9 rushing yards per game to RBs. They’re also giving up the most carries in the league to RBs with a whopping 28.9 per game over the last eight weeks. The Chargers are really stingy against WRs, so I like CJ Uzomah this week. Uzomah hasn’t scored in four straight, but the Chargers have given up five TDs to TEs in the last three weeks, and they’re giving up a league-high .9 TDs per game to the position and the most FP per target on the season, so I think he will be a bigger factor in this one. I do also think that it’s only a matter of time until Ja’Marr Chase has a blowup game. It’s a bad matchup for Tyler Boyd, so forget him this week. Tee Higgins may be helped by Boyd’s tough matchup vs. Chris Harris, and he needs help against the stingy Chargers. The matchup is tough for Joe Burrow by the numbers, but I’m expecting solid digits with Herbert on the other side.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
Players I like more than usual: Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski
Players I’m neutral on: Cordarrelle Patterson, Leonard Fournette, Russell Gage, Kyle Pitts
Players I like less than usual: Matt Ryan
Longshot Plays: Tyler Johnson, Ronald Jones (blowout reach)
Notes: Tom Brady is certainly pissed about his recent poor play and the recent drama with the AB situation, so he should feast against a weaker defense in Atlanta’s. Brady put up 276/5 in this matchup earlier this season, and this looks like a 3-4 TD game to me, so Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are easily both WR1s and Rob Gronkowski is one of the top TE plays of the week. Godwin has a great matchup with their starting slot CB out and Evans has owned them. If desperate, Tyler Johnson should get some action and another chance to turn his so-so season around. He’s underwhelmed, but he was quite good last week. Leonard Fournette had only 11/52 rushing and 4/24 receiving against the Falcons in Week 2, and the Falcons have hung in there against the run, but game script and red zone action look great on paper for Lenny.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the Falcon offense right now, and he was great enough to get it done against this tough defense in Week 2 with Buccaneers, by posting 5/58/1 receiving and 7/11/1 rushing. I doubt he does that well this time around, but this guy puts up 15 points in a bad game. Matt Ryan could come out and play well as he has in the recent past in this matchup, but his OL has crushed him, and his receiving corps is bad. The Bucs are back to full strength at CB, so things aren’t looking good. Kyle Pitts did manage 5/73 receiving on six targets in this matchup earlier this season, but that was with Calvin Ridley in the mix. No Ridley has crushed Pitts, so he’s a low-end TE1. Russell Gage is worth a look if desperate, as I am in a 14-team league with nothing but skank on the WW and three WRs out.
Washington Football Team (5-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)
Players I like more than usual: Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Foster Moreau
Players I’m neutral on: Terry McLaurin, Josh Jacobs
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Taylor Heinicke, Kenyan Drake
Notes: I like this game for fantasy and Taylor Heinicke has been better the last two weeks, so I like where he’s at now. He should also get more than he got last week from TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel. If he runs a little, which he usually does, he’s a good bet to have a solid day even though it’s a tougher matchup for Terry McLaurin on the outside. It’s a great matchup for Thomas, as the Raiders are giving up a second-most 17.4 FPG, the third-highest EPA/attempt and the sixth-highest FP/target number against TEs. Antonio Gibson is a complete no-brainer this week and has looked as healthy as he has all season since their Week 9 bye. Obviously, JD McKissic being out is huge. The Raiders are giving up 141 total yards per game to RBs, so Gibson is a lock for 15-20 points unless he gets hurt. They’re also giving up 7/51/.3 per game to RBs in the passing game, so 4-5 catches are a lock. Wendell Smallwood could factor in for JDM, but Gibson should dominate the backfield in target percentage.
He’s unreliable, but I like Derek Carr this week after he balled out in Week 12 with 373/1. Washington is giving up a league-high 24.2 FPG to QBs this season, and they’ve allowed multiple TD passes in 8-of-11 games. The football team won’t have S Landon Collins and CB Benjamin St-Juste, who had been playing about half their snaps. With the football team showing signs of life, this could be a mini-shootout. Especially with Waller out, Hunter Renfrow is a great play, as TFT has been one of the worst teams in the league covering the slot and give up the fifth-most FPG to slot receivers the last eight weeks. Hopefully, they don’t ask Renfrow to play outside like they did some last week. Foster Moreau dropped 6/60/1 receiving while filling in for Waller in Week 7, he has 10 TDs on just 53 career targets. TFT is giving up the fifth-most FP per target to TEs and the third-highest EPA/target (expected points added) against TEs, so I like him as a TE1. I would not yet trust DeSean Jackson, by the way, and he’s already hurt. Josh Jacobs is also hurt, but he did work the last two two, although limited (ankle). Just when I was going to praise him for season-highs in carries (22), rushing yards (87), and FP (19.2) last week. But he’s getting the targets and the catches, so he’s a solid asset right now who should be hard to sit for most as at worst a flex. It is a tougher matchup overall against TFT. Kenyan Drake is just sitting there as a desperation play, but he’s a solid one with Jacobs dealing with an ankle issue.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
Players I like more than usual: Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Sony Michel
Players I’m neutral on: Matthew Staford, Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones
Players I like less than usual: Laviska Shenault, James Robinson, Darrell Henderson
Longshot Plays: James O’Shaughnessy, Carlos Hyde
Notes: The Jaguar offense is tough to trust right now, but when I did the projections for Trevor Lawrence, I had some hope, largely due to the 5/39 rushing he posted last week. But the Rams have been shaky on defense as well, giving up the 16th-most FPG (18.5) to QBs this season. There’s no way in hell I’m saying anything good about Laviska Shenault, though, and Marvin Jones has been dead. When Laquon Treadwell leads your team in receiving, you have issues. The best option may be TE James O’Shaughnessy, who logged in 3/29 receiving on five targets on a promising 81% snap share last week with a two-point conversion. The Rams are also giving up the 12th-most FPG (13.8) to TEs this season. It’s tough right now for James Robinson, who may be playing when he should sit a game or two out. His snaps were down to a season-low 52% last week and even Carlos Hyde ran more routes, so he’s been downgraded to low-end RB2 territory and he can be sat because he’s clearly hurting.
I don’t assume this is an easy matchup for Matthew Stafford, as the Jaguars have limited five of the last seven QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 200 passing yards, and they’re giving up the eighth-fewest FPG (17.6) to the position. I view Stafford as a low-end QB1. Cooper Kupp should do very well, though, and we all like Van Jefferson this week. Last week I liked Russell Gage in this matchup with CB Shaquill Griffin out, and Gage for 6/62/1, and Griffin is out again. I guess we’ll see if Odell Beckham plays, but he’s certainly a viable upside play if he’s active. The Jaguars are giving up the 12th-most FPG (36.3) to WRs this season. Tyler Higbee is just about dead and no TE has topped 35+ yards against them since their Week 7 bye. Darrell Henderson strained his quad and only got in a limited practice Friday, so it’s fair to pull back from expectations and to raise them for Sony Michel. If Henderson were ruled out, and that seems to be the case, Michel would be an RB1 in my book. The Jaguars are giving up only 3.8 YPC but they’re allowing the third-most rushing TDs per game (1.0) to RBs.
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)
Players I like more than usual: Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Marquise Brown
Players I’m neutral on: Lamar Jackson, Rashod Bateman, Devonta Freeman, Ben Roethlisberger
Players I like less than usual: Najee Harris, Mark Andrews
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: Something is not right with Lamar Jackson, whose health has been an issue to say the least this year. Jackson is coming off his worst game as a pro, and now he’s got a tougher challenge as the Steelers limited Lamar earlier in the season with him getting only 208/2 passing and 16/65 rushing with 2 INTs and 2 lost fumbles. Obviously, most are rolling with him, but I’d lower expectations for him and also Mark Andrews, who had just 3/32 in his last game against the Steelers, who give up only 9.7 FPG to TEs the last four weeks. It’s an easier matchup for Marquise Brown, as the Steelers are giving up the 10th-most FPG (36.9) to WRs this season, so it’s a Brown game. But you can’t use Rashod Bateman with much confidence, since Sammy Watkins is limiting his snaps and opportunities. Devonta Freeman remains the only RB I’d use here, and he has season-highs in carries the last two weeks. Of course, he’s not doing much with them. The good news is the Steelers are getting run on and now giving up a generous 4.8 YPC to RBs and 5.2 YPC the last four weeks.
The Steelers looked terrible last week, so Ben Roethlisberger’s pretty hard to trust. The Ravens haven’t allowed an individual QB to top 16+ FP in three straight games. However, ALL of their CBs are questionable, so that’s good news at least for Diontae Johnson. If Marlon Humphrey is active, I will lower the projection for Diontae, as Humphrey and the Ravens have handled Diontae well, limiting him to 9/52 receiving (5.8 YPR) on 16 targets (3.3 YPT) in two games last season. Chase Claypool is coming on a little with 8/175 receiving on 17 targets (21% share) the last two weeks, and he also posted 11/94/1 receiving on 18 targets in two games in this matchup last season, so he’s looking solid given all their CB injuries. Pat Friermuth landed in concussion protocol this week, but he was a full participant in practice all week, so he’s good. He came through last week with 4/40/1 on a 76% snap share with Eric Ebron on IR, and Freiermuth is the man again this week. He has 5 TDs in his last five games, and the Ravens are giving up the fourth-most TDs per game (.6) to TEs this season. The other concern for the Steelers is Najee Harris, who may be hitting a rookie wall. He had season-lows in snap share (58%), carries (8), and rushing yards (23) and he added just 3/14 receiving last week, and the the Ravens with DT Brandon Williams back last week shut down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week, limiting the prolific backfield to a combined 15/36 rushing and 2/23 receiving.
San Francisco 49ers (6-5) at Seattle Seahawks (3-8)
Players I like more than usual: Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Eli Mitchell, DK Metcalf
Players I’m neutral on: Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everrett
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: I guess Eli Mitchell is okay, as he had a career-high 70% snap share last week despite surgery on his finger. JaMycal Hasty should return this week, which will hurt Mitchell’s target potential, but the Seahawks are now allowing the second-most FPG (31.8) to RBs this season, so expect success. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing well right now, and I at least do like Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Aiyuk is 100% back, even to his dominating form at the tail end of the 2020 season. Deebo Samuel went for 8/156/2 receiving as the top WR in the first meeting this year, so Aiyuk can get half of that at least. With Deebo out, it sets up well for this week to be a Kittle week, who had 4/40 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup earlier this season. The Seahawks are giving up the 10th-most FPG (14.0) to TEs this season.
The Seahawks have activated Adrian Peterson from their practice squad, so he will presumably play, possibly making their backfield the single worst fantasy backfield of all time. Rashad Penny, DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer, and Alex Collins will also be in the mix. Russell Wilson is still very hard to trust, but I do know that DK Metcalf is scoring this week. Seattle’s offense is dead, but they will get some help with some key defensive injuries for the 49ers, like DL Dre Greenlaw and LB Fred Warner (d). DK has averaged 6/82/1 in his last three matchups dating back to just 2020, so he has history on his side. Wilson had just 149 passing yards in this matchup in early October, but he did have 3 TDs (1 rushing). Tyler Lockett had just 4/24 receiving on five targets in this matchup earlier this season, and I’d guess he has a quiet game if it's all about DK. Gerald Everett has a team-best 22% target share in the last three weeks, but the 49ers are giving up a league-low 29.0 receiving yards per game to TEs. Still, they will likely be without top LB Warner, and he’s a big part of their TE success.
Denver Broncos (6-5, 6-5 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Players I like more than usual: Javonte Williams
Players I’m neutral on: Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Players I like less than usual: Cortland Sutton
Longshot Plays: Teddy Bridgewater
Notes: The KC defense has been solid lately, but Teddy Bridgewater completed 36 passes against this same defense last year as a Panther for 310/2 passing with a 74% completion rate. I love Javonte Williams, and he will bring some explosiveness to the offense, hopefully in the passing game, but Teddy is likely going to have to throw it 30+ times, since this game has one of the highest expected totals this week. I’m confident Teddy can at least get 16 FP here. Obviously, with Melvin Gordon out, Williams is looking good. Williams is averaging over 5.0 YPC and 10.0 YPC his last four games, and now we’re looking at 15+ carries and 5+ targets. He’s also a very good receiver with upside due to his big-play potential, and it could be a big catch game, since they are 10-point road underdogs and since Chiefs are giving up just under 7 catches a game to RBs in their last four. Regardless, with 20+ opportunities, I think we can bank on 15+ PPR points. I’d still use Jerry Juedy and Noah Fant if needed, despite them being frustrating, but you cannot use Courtland Sutton with any confidence. Jeudy had a rough matchup against veteran CB Chris Harris last week. Sutton has yet to score more than six FP and to catch more than two passes in each of his first five games with Jeudy in the lineup. Fant is hurt by Albert Okwuegbunam in the lineup, but the Chiefs are giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game (63.3) to the position.
Patrick Mahomes has topped 15+ FP just once in his last five games, and Mahomes managed a combined 518/2 passing in two games against the Broncos last season, which is not good. Tyreek Hill hasn’t topped 100+ receiving yards since Week 4, and he finished with a so-so 12/113/1 receiving in two matchups with the Broncos last season, so don’t expect a blowup game, especially since it looks like a Travis Kelce game. Kelce put up a combined 11/167/1 receiving in two matchups with the Broncos last season. I cannot use any of the other Chief WRs, they stink. Clyde Edwards-Helaire looked good in their last game, but he played just 47% of the snaps with Darrel Williams still in the mix. But CEH’s snaps and touches should increase even slightly with some more time passed.
New England Patriots (8-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-4)
Players I like more than usual: Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox
Players I’m neutral on: Josh Allen, Stephon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson
Players I like less than usual: Nelson Agholor
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: It’s obviously not the best matchup for Mac Jones, but Mac is up for anything at this point. Buffalo’s defense is giving up the fewest FPG (12.1) to QBs, but they did lose stud CB Tre’Davious White, and the Pats offense can move the ball against anyone, so Jones should have a decent day, especially if the Bills get it done and force them to throw it 35+ times. Kendrick Bourne has gone for 23+ FP in two of his last three games as their big play guy. He’s still playing behind Nelson Agholor, but Bourne’s the one making plays. Jakobi Meyers should get some volume as well, but the Bills do have a very good slot corner in Taron Johnson. Hunter Henry has lost some trust lately, so he’s a desperation play only, as Jonnu Smith might be coming on. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson continue to split the lead-runner duties last week, and Brandon Bolden is still in the mix for a third of their snaps as their receiving back. Bolden has been questionable, at least. The Bills are allowing just 108.6 scrimmage yards per game and the third-fewest FPG (20.0) to RBs this season, but they have been run on at times.
Josh Allen had had problems in this matchup in his career, and he had only 154/0 passing against the Patriots in Week 8 last season before getting 320/4 passing in the second matchup. The Patriots have limited four straight QBs to fewer than 10 FP, which is nasty, but we’re talking about some low-end passing games they’ve faced. Stefon Diggs should be a focus, so with S Kyle Dugger out, Dawson Knox may be in business, since Dugger is often their TE matchup. Perhaps Cole Beasley can help move the sticks with 5-6 catches. Emmanuel Sanders has vanished, so he’s a longshot only. Devin Singletary is tough to trust, but it does look like Zach Moss is out of the mix right now, and Matt Breida is not a volume guy. Simply put, the best way to attack the Pats is to run on them, so the Bills might actually try. Singletary led with a 68% snap share last week with 16 opportunities, and we should be looking at another 15-20 looks this week. The Pats are giving up 4.6 YPC and a generous 160.4 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, so I like DS for 12+ PPR FP.
