After a wild season where no heavyweights emerged and the favorites never felt as strong as most years, Rams-Bengals is an excellent ending. Both of these team’s have completely remade their rosters in a matter of a few years, albeit through totally different avenues.
In the span of six months, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have managed to make the Bengals the most likable team in the NFL which is an accomplishment that’s almost bigger than the Super Bowl. Cincinnati re-tooled their defense through free agency and nailed almost all of their moves – especially in the trenches – but Burrow and Chase have altered the trajectory of this franchise for the next decade. All those years of sucking were worth it.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford and the 2021 Rams have been engineered almost entirely through flashy, high-priced outside investments. Les Snead nailed some value picks in recent drafts – namely sixth-rounder S Jordan Fuller – but Snead and Sean McVay’s final calculated risk of trading for Stafford has only taken a year to pay off. Stafford is finally getting the recognition he deserves for being so damn good for so damn long and is getting helped along by a talented and stingy defense, which was the main problem for all of those years in Detroit. All those years of sucking were worth it.
For those who aren’t fans of either team, this game sets up perfectly. You can root for either side and not be wrong.
Here are all of the stats you need for Super Bowl LVI.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals postseason run started after they got stomped 41-21 by the Chargers in Week 13.
Since then, Joe Brrr has been unstoppable as he’s completed 73% of his throws for 9.3 YPA, averaged 331.1 yards per game, and thrown 15 TDs to just 2 INTs over his last seven games.
Joe Burrow led all QBs in completions (57.4%) and on-target throws (74.5%) when pressured this season.
The Rams have generated pressure on a whopping 45.7% of their opposing quarterbacks dropbacks, the highest rate in the postseason by far.
While keeping Burrow clean is the biggest problem the Bengals have to solve, this is an amazing spot for this passing attack as a whole…
The Rams have predominantly played Cover-3 this postseason (44% of passing downs).
Per SIS, Burrow led all QBs in completions (75%) and passer rating (111.2) against Cover-3 this season.
Ja’Marr Chase is hotter than the sun right now and is averaging 22.1 FPG over his last seven full games since Week 14.
Chase has 61 targets in this span while Tee Higgins has 51 and Tyler Boyd has 36.
Speaking of Boyd, he has basically been a non-factor during their playoff run with just 4/26/1, 2/17, and 4/19 receiving.
Boyd has flopped in back-to-back good matchups, but he catches another one year. The Rams allowed the seventh-most yards (99.9) and ninth-most receptions (7.6) per game to opposing slot wide receivers during the regular season.
Joe Mixon finally snapped his five-game streak of being held under 3.8 YPC against the Chiefs (21/88, 4.2 YPC) but he’s up against it here against this Rams front-seven…
Los Angeles’ run defense has been incredible this postseason as they’ve held enemy RBs to just 3.1 YPC. Including the playoffs, L.A.’s run defense ranks fourth-best in FootballOutsiders metrics – ranking behind only the Saints, 49ers, and Colts.
This has been a common theme of the Bengals in Stat-Pack recently… I do not trust HC Zac Taylor and OC Brian Callahan whatsoever.
The Bengals ran the ball on 46% of their 24 first down plays that were not in the red-zone against Kansas City. Those first down runs gained 1.7 YPC.
Meanwhile, their first-down passes gained 7.4 YPA.
As a result of their ineffective ground game on first-down, Joe Burrow had to bail out his team on second and third down and, boy, did he. Burrow averaged a monster 10.9 (!!) YPA on 2nd and 3rd downs against the Chiefs.
The Bengals went 83% (!!) pass-heavy on second and third downs against the Chiefs because they were so bad on first. That is impossible to bank on again.
Taylor and Callahan have gotten two weeks to learn from their mistakes and come up with a way to counteract this Rams front-seven. Hopefully they’ll be aggressive early and often and do some of the things that the 49ers did in the NFC Championship game to try and beat L.A.'s pressure (like screens to Chase and getting Mixon involved in the passing game).
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams postseason run started after a three-game losing streak that ended in Week 13. Since then, L.A. has gone 8-1 with their lone loss coming to the 49ers in Week 18 where they blew a 17-3 halftime lead.
Matthew Stafford was far from perfect in the Rams Super Bowl push – he threw 7 INTs in Weeks 16-18 – but he’s saved his best for last. This postseason, Stafford has completed 71% of his throws for 9.1 YPA and a stellar 124.1 passer rating.
The Bengals beat the Chiefs because of two and a half main things: 1) Joe Brrr, 2a) Patrick Mahomes was awful in the second-half and 2b) Mahomes was awful because of a great defensive gameplan.
Cincinnati basically scrapped their pass rush against Mahomes and instead elected to just play 8-men in coverage often.
I’ve written often about how defenses just stopped blitzing Stafford as he saw extra pass rushers at the second-lowest rate during the regular season (only Mahomes was lower). Tampa Bay and Todd Bowles paid the price after blitzing Stafford heavily in the Divisional Round, but San Francisco didn’t take the bait. They only blitzed Stafford 16.3% of the time in the NFC Championship game.
The Bengals only blitzed Mahomes on 14.6% of his dropbacks in the AFC Championship game. They definitely won’t make a habit of sending extra heat Stafford’s way.
Cooper Kupp is going to make for an interesting debate in 2022 fantasy drafts because everyone will clamor for #regression as he’s piled up a ridiculous 170/2333/20 in 20 games.
That being said, Kupp can further cement himself in the history books with 7 more catches for most in postseason history (32).
Odell Beckham has been a massive addition for the Rams with Robert Woods (ACL) out and OBJ is peaking at the right time…
This postseason, OBJ is averaging an elite 10.3 yards per target – which is better than his rookie season figure (10.1 YPT).
I’m excited to see where Cam Akers goes in 2022 drafts (I’ll be all-in if it’s the second round) – but he’s been stonewalled this postseason for an ugly 2.8 YPC on his 54 carries.
Akers’ lack of success can be mostly attributed to poor blocking as he’s been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on a whopping 59% of his carries this postseason per SIS.
This Bengals front-seven does offer a nice matchup for the Rams run game, though. Cincinanti has been cracked for 5.67 YPC this postseason and 4 individual RBs have gone over 62 yards against them. Just note, Akers is nursing a shoulder injury and the Rams should get Darrell Henderson back and fresh after he’s sat out the last six weeks.
