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Week 13 ThriveFantasy Picks


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Week 13 ThriveFantasy Picks

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Here are our favorite Week 13 ThriveFantasy Player Props.

Note: Picks will be added at the end of the week for Sunday games.

Sunday Games

We have an absolutely loaded slate of Sunday games as we’re down to just the final two teams (Bucs and Panthers) on bye this week and with no Thursday night game on the slate. I gave out Kirk Cousins as my favorite streaming QB option this week, and I’m looking at Justin Jefferson (Min) over 68.5 receiving yards today. Adam Thielen will be back in the lineup, which is a small concern, but Jefferson ranks behind only Davante Adams in yards per route run at 2.91 yards as he has 286 yards in his last three games. The Jaguars have also allowed seven different receivers to post 15+ FP in their last four games. I’d also consider Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 65.5 rushing and receiving yards in his first game back after a stay on the COVID-19 list. The Texans are allowing a generous 5.4 YPC and a league-high 132.5 rushing yards per game to RBs so this is a great spot for Taylor to start his December breakout. On the flip side, I’m backing Miles Sanders (Phi) under 65.5 rushing yards because this Eagles’ offense is completely broken right now. The Packers have been gashed by Taylor and David Montgomery in the last two weeks, but Sanders saw just half of the backfield touches (8 of 16) last week while Boston Scott saw seven of them. The Eagles project to be playing a negative game script again and I’m not optimistic about a bounce back. This week’s slate will end with the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football and that means another potential eruption is waiting for Patrick Mahomes and company. I’m taking Tyreek Hill (KC) over 73.5 receiving yards as he’s carrying fantasy teams into the playoffs right now. Hill has 98+ yards and 1+ TDs in each of his last four games since the Chiefs have gone pass-heavy with Mahomes averaging 45.3 passes in that span. Good luck this week! — Tom Brolley

Tom’s got some great ones above, so I’ll list a few high point plays that I like. First, I like Travis Kelce over 0.5 TD receptions (105 points). Kelce is always a solid bet for a TD, and there is an exploitable weakness in Denver’s LB corps. Josey Jewell has been a liability in coverage, and I can see Andy Reid creating opportunities in the red zone to match up Kelce with Jewell. I also like D.K. Metcalf over 5.5 receptions (110 points). Yes, the Seahawks are back to running the ball more, but that didn’t stop Metcalf last game from blowing up. And while those games aren’t a weekly expectation, and James Bradberry is one of the best corners in the game right now, New York’s D-line is no joke, either. Seattle will have to throw the ball, and Metcalf will get his share of targets. — Justin Varnes

A ton of exciting football in store on Sunday. Let’s begin with Jacksonville at Minnesota. Justin Jefferson is the most lethal WR in the game this season when facing Cover 1. The Jags happen to feature that scheme at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. JJ ranks first in the NFL with 0.92 FPs/route (FPRt) and 5.52 yards/route run (YPRR) when facing Cover 1 shells. In four games this season facing teams playing at least 35 percent of snaps in Cover 1 (Tennessee, Houston, Atlanta, and Detroit), Jefferson has averaged 127 YPG. Plenty of evidence in support of the reason I am taking the over on 85.5 receiving yards for Justin Jefferson (100 points).

Speaking of Atlanta, they’ll rematch with New Orleans, at home this time around, with Todd Gurley II hoping to better his 26 rushing yards, zero TD line from Week 11. Easier said than done. The Saints are allowing the second-lowest rushing yards (76.6), YPC (3.3), and lowest rate of rushing TDs (0.45) in 2020. One of the most significant factors has been allowing the lowest rate of rushing first downs (17.3 percent) in 2020. Gurley does have nine rushing TDs in ten games this season and goal line TDs can always be very luck-based, especially if a defensive pass interference penalty perfectly places the ball inside the five. But we need to be playing the percentages here, New Orleans are only permitting 1.25 goal-to-go opportunities/game over their last four (eighth-best). It’s for these reasons that I am taking the under on 0.5 rushing TDs for Todd Gurley today (90 points).

When it comes to defending the pass, less than five secondaries can hold a candle to the Rams. Each of Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill, Darious Williams, and John Johnson III rank toward the top at their respective positions in limiting yardage, with Ramsey and Johnson near shoe-ins for All-Pro recognition. Los Angeles is allowing only 203.5 passing YPG (third-best) and 5.7 YPA (first) this season. Allowing the lowest rate of 20-plus completions (10 percent), 40-plus completions (0.8 percent), and third-lowest passing first down rate (31.3 percent) go a long way to explaining that dominance. The only detail I should need to add on Kyler Murray is that he’s only passed for more than 290.5 yards against the Seahawks and the Jets in 11 games this season. I am counting on these factors continuing, taking the under on Kyler Murray for 290.5 passing yards (105 points).

Since I’ve already covered Justin Jefferson’s ownership of the Cover 1 scheme, it might seem like similar WRs are a dime a dozen when I highlight Cooper Kupp’s speciality of the single-high safety coverage shell. Not so fast. Out of the 136 qualified WRs used in comparison, the average FPRt when facing Cover 1 is perfectly in line with the rates facing Cover 2, 3, 4, and 6 defenses. Kupp ranks seventh with 0.65 FPRt and fifth with 3.26 YPRR against Cover 1 over the last two seasons. Arizona is averaging the third-highest usage rate of Cover 1 this season. On 21 percent of total routes run opposed by Cover 1 since the beginning of 2019, Kupp has garnered 34 percent of his yardage. In his three games this season facing top-10 rates of Cover 1, Kupp has a combined receiving line of 26/302/1. It’s really an easy decision, taking the over on Cooper Kupp for 70.5 receiving yards (95 points).

Finally, we close out my picks with Aaron Jones. The Eagles actually have a decent collection of capable run stoppers that has limited opposing teams to the third-lowest rushing first down percentage this season (20.3 percent). However, that’s where the positives end for Phildelphia’s run defense. Over their last four games, the Eagles are handing over 5.67 red zone touches (sixth-most) and 2.67 goal-to-go carries per game (fourth). Jones has collected eight rushing TDs in nine games this season. He’s averaging the 11th-highest goal line carries per game (1.33) and scored 67 percent of their total TDs. Also considering Philly is giving up the third-highest average of rushing TDs (1.45), I am taking the over on 0.5 total TDs for Aaron Jones (90 points). I wish all of you the best of luck today! — Wes Huber

Monday Night Football

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