Tennessee Titans (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Derrick Henry - No brainer high-end RB1 this week with three key defenders out (at least), including stalwart DeForest Buckner. Henry could always get hosed with game script, but that’s unlikely. The Colts kept him out of the end zone two weeks ago with Buckner and others, but he ran well on them late, posting 19/103 rushing.
Corey Davis - Has 11+ FP in 7 of his 8 games and had 6/57 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, which should have been at least 7/70 as they pulled Tannehill out in garbage time with 4:00 mins to go and Davis was the guy that week. They play a lot of zone, which is good for Davis.
Nyheim Hines - Good timing for Week 10’s hot hand in the Colt backfield in this matchup with Jonathan Taylor out. Hines had a TD taken off the board last week and put up 115 yards and 2 TDs in this matchup two weeks ago. He should be a good bet for 13-15 opportunities in this one regardless of game script.
Michael Pittman - The rookie has 55+ receiving yards in three straight and 15+ FP in two straight contests and a big game two weeks ago in this matchup with 7 catches for 100+ and a 21-yard run. They are still spreading it around, but he’s the top guy for sure.
Philip Rivers - They need him more than expected this week with Taylor out and he’s got three games with 3 TD passes in his last five with 33+ attempts each week. He was solid two weeks ago in this matchup putting up 308/1 passing. No CB Adoree Jackson again for the Titans helps.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Colts TEs - It’s impossible to handicap this group. Trey Burton (2/25/1 receiving) and Mo Alie-Cox (2/16) each ran 15 routes last week while Jack Doyle (1/6/1) ran 10 routes. Good luck.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Jordan Wilkins - Just 36 yards with 5 opportunities on 11% of the snaps last week, but those numbers could double or triple this week with Jonathan Taylor out. He’s capable of being the hot hand and piling up 100+ yards with a TD, but his role isn’t guaranteed so he’s no lock.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Ryan Tannehill - Averaged a season-low 5.4 YPA with just 147/1 passing against the Colts two weeks ago, but both Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have thrown for 300+ yards recently and no Buckner and others helps.
A.J. Brown - Not catching a lot of balls and just a 21-yard catch on four targets two weeks ago in this matchup, but he also dropped a 72-yard TD early in the game, and the Colts are undermanned.
Jonnu Smith - Hurt by their LT issues and Corey Davis’ emergence, Jonnu hasn’t hit 40+ receiving yards in six straight. He did score a rushing TD against the Colts two weeks ago but he had just 2/14 receiving.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Brian Hill - With Todd Gurley OUT in Week 12, it set Hill up nicely for 15+ opportunities, and he’s been a better receiver than Gurley, who has four more targets than Hill, but the same number of catches (16) for almost 2 fewer yards per catch. Hill has also been a better runner, averaging 4.4 YPC to Gurley’s 3.7 (and Gurley is at 2.7 YPC his last four). I don’t see Ito Smith or Qadree Ollison getting much play behind Hill, so if Hill can stumble into the endzone, he comes through. The Raiders have allowed 12 rushing TDs this season after allowing three rushing TDs to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell last week.
Calvin Ridley - Back off his foot injury last week and solid with 5/90 receiving on 9 targets, and Tyreek Hill posted 11/102/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
Josh Jacobs - Has a TD in three straight and while the matchup isn’t good by the numbers, this feels like a 25+ carry game with multiple TD chances for Jacobs. But one or fewer catches in three of his last four games is not good.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Julio Jones - He’s a damn near train wreck and barely a GTD today, since he didn’t practice all week. He’s got plenty of downside if active, needless to say. The matchup is good, at least.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Derek Carr - Playing very well but frustrating for fantasy, averaging just 24 attempts/game Weeks 8-10 with only 31 in a shootout with KC last week. Teams do pass on the Falcons, though, and seven different QBs have thrown for 300+ yards against them, not including Taysom Hill last week but he put up 25.4 FP.
Darren Waller - 5+ catches in 8 eight of 10 games after and this has been a good matchup all year, although maybe not as good the last month or so. The Falcons have allowed 8 TDs to TEs in their 10 games.
Nelson Agholor - TD in 5 of his last 7, but you may have started him those two weeks he didn't score and you got nothing. Still, a season-best 29% target share last week and the Falcons have allowed lead WRs to hiit 100+ yards in the last two games Michael Thomas and Jerry Jeudy.
Matt Ryan - Under siege last week with 2 INTs and he’s been horrible without Julio, throwing for just one TD and four INTs with a 6.5 YPA average. The matchup is beatable, at least. If Julio is in, his chances improve considerably.
Russell Gage - Had 12 targets with Julio in and out of the lineup last week and 7/58, but he’s hard to trust still and had just 6/64 receiving in three games earlier this season when Julio was banged up. Olamide Zaccheaus and Christian Blake are in the mix if Julio is out.
Hayden Hurst - He’s questionable, which is scary because he’s been a questionable fantasy pick all year. Hurst posted only 7/60/1 on 15 targets in the three games without Julio and the Raiders have been tough against TEs outside of Travis Kelce.
Los Angeles Chargers (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Justin Herbert - Bills improving on defense but beatable and he’s attempted 42+ passes in four of his last five. The Bills have allowed 19+ FP to 8 of 9 QBs they’ve faced this season with Sam Darnold is the only QB that’s failed to come through, so he should be fine in a potential shoutout.
Hunter Henry - Has 4 catches in each of his last 4 games and a TD last two weeks, but not a lot of yards. But the Bills have been weaker against TEs all year, allowing 5.9/64.2/.6 receiving on 8.0 targets per game.
Josh Allen - He’s been at 29+ FP his last two and the Chargers have allowed multiple TD passes in five straight games. No QB has thrown for 250+ yards in that stretch and he won’t have John Brown, but the Chargers also won’t have top corner Casey Hayward (but likely do get Chris Harris back at CB) and LB Melvin Ingram, which helps.
Stefon Diggs - Has double-digit FP in every game and 6+ catches in 9 of his 10. Outside WRs Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims combined for 5/125/1 receiving against the Chargers last week and no Casey Hayward helps.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Gabriel Davis - He gets the nod with John Brown out and the Chargers have allowed eight different WRs to post double-digit FP in their last three games, and they lost CB Hayward this week, so he’s a nice sleeper for 10+ PPR points.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Keenan Allen - He’s been incredible, putting up 9+ catches and 20+ FP in four of his last five, and he won’t see much of top corner Tre’Davious White in the slot. The Bills have been improved, though, and limited Tyler Lockett (4/40 receiving) in Week 9.
Mike Williams - Has 70+ receiving yards and 4+ catches in three of his last four but will see more Tre’Davious White on the outside. Still, the Bills have been bad on the outside and guys like DeAndre Hopkins (7/127/1) and D.K. Metcalf (7/108/1) have crushed them in their last two games.
Austin Ekeler - He has been activated and if he’s active today, I’d think most will want to use him. There’s downside pending word on his role, but 10+ touches should be in order if he’s active. Bills give up 141.3 total yards a game to RBs with Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds combining for 186 scrimmage yards in their last game.
Kalen Ballage - He’s been the guy but tough to trust if Austin Ekeler is active. As of Sunday morning, he’s also not expected to play.
Cole Beasley - Another big game last week but a little up and down. The Chargers have been tough against the slot all year, and Jamison Crowder managed just a 16-yard catch on three targets in this matchup last week.
Zack Moss - Has only 19 touches for 65 total yards in their last two games and who knows when they will attempt to commit to running the ball. It’s a solid matchup, at least, as the Chargers are giving up 4.8 YPC and 6.2 catches per game to RBs, and they’ve allowed 5 TDs to RBs in the last three.
Devin Singletary - Only 10/44 rushing his last two games and fewer than 10 touches on average his last four games. It’s a solid matchup, at least, as the Chargers are giving up 4.8 YPC and 6.2 catches per game to RBs, and they’ve allowed 5 TDs to RBs in the last three.
New York Giants (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Wayne Gallman - Has scored in four straight and 13+ FP in those four and now gets a good matchup finally after dealing with some good run defenses. 2-3 catches would be nice each week, but that’s not been the case, but a good matchup with the Bengals defense allowing 5.2 YPC, and the Giants are also 6-point road favorites, so Gallman should get some volume in this one.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Tee Higgins - He was a stud but now we’ll just have to see. Higgins and Finley failed to connect on any of their four targets together last week, and it would make sense to lean on Boyd inside with top corner James Bradberry lurking on the outside.
A.J. Green - No way he can be used with the QB situation and he had just 2/19 receiving on 10 targets in his previous two games before scoring last week.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Daniel Jones - Sneaky in this softer matchup and he has 18+ FP in 3 of his last 4, due in part to his running. The Giants should dominate the ball with journeyman Brandon Allen getting the call, which should result in them running more plays and working with shorter fields this week.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Sterling Shepard - Has 6 or more catches in the last four games, as he has come back strong. Steven Sims scored a TD on the outside in this matchup last week. I can see another 5/50 here at least.
Darius Slayton - Only third on the team in targets (21) with Shepard back. Terry McLaurin posted 5/84 receiving in this matchup last week. Bengals don’t travel corners so he won’t be on solid CB William Jackson all the time.
Evan Engram - Had 5+ catches and 45+ yards in his first three games with Shepard back before but had a poor 2/15 in their last games. The Bengals have improved lately, but this has been a good matchup for TEs this year.
Brandon Allen - He wasn't horrible in Denver for a brief spell last year, completing 39/84 passes for 515 yards (6.1 YPA), three TDs, and two INTs in three games. He might be able to avoid crushing both WRs, but someone’s taking a hit, likely Tee Higgins.
Tyler Boyd - He was active when Andy Dalton went down last year, posting 12/163/1 on 20 targets in three games. The Giants have been a slightly above average matchup for slot WRs this year.
Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine - Gio seems to be set to return from his concussion, but check our projections to be sure. Gio has tailed off the last two games with just 18.2 FP combined and 102 total yards. The Giants have allowed 30+ FP to the Eagles and the Washington RBs in their last two games, so it’s not hopeless if Gio is cleared.
Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt - It’s 30+ carries for these guys in this one. The Jags in a sad state with several key people out and Mike Glennon starting at QB. The Jaguars are giving up the eight-most FP per carry, and when looking at production given up to RBs in just the running game, they’re giving up the fourth-most FPG to RBs. The Jags have also been vulnerable to outside runs, the staple of the Browns’ rushing attack.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Austin Hooper - Only 4/44 on 7 targets since returning in Week 10. At least the Jaguars have allowed a league-high eight TDs to the position.
Keelan Cole - You’d think he’ll be the #1 this week, and Browns CB Denzel Ward is out, which helps. Tee Higgins posted 5/71/1 receiving against the Brown the last time they had a game in normal conditions.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Baker Mayfield - He hasn’t attempted 30+ passes since Week 5 and 5 of his 6 TD passes since Week 5 came in one game. The Jaguars have allowed 265+ passing yards and multiple TDs in four straight games and are down some key DBs, but it doesn’t matter.
Jarvis Landry - A sad 5/52 receiving on only 7 his last two games, but they did just put slot corner DJ Hayden on IR and are without #1 pick CJ Henderson.
Rashard Higgins - Leading the Browns with 6/113 receiving on eight targets since their bye week, but he actually played fewer snaps than KhaDarel Hodge last week, so tough to trust since they won’t likely have to throw much.
Mike Glennon - He’s thrown only 31 passes with no starts over the last three seasons. He does have a good arm and is a capable thrower, so it would not be a shock to see him hit 200 yards passing under normal circumstances, but no DJ Chark and Chris Conley is not normal.
James Robinson - Only 4/24 receiving in his three games with Jake Luton so maybe Glennon will help. the switch to the statuesque veteran Glennon should help his receiving production. Miles Sanders and Boston Scott combined for 90 rushing yards and 6/41 receiving last week against the Browns.
Laviska Shenault - Expected back this week and they do need him, so he will be one of their top-2 WRs. But you need to be pretty damn desperate to use him.
Carolina Panthers (4-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Teddy Bridgewater - Set to start and an overall good matchup for a Teddy revenge game. The Vikings allowed Andy Dalton to throw for three TDs and 203 passing yards last week, for example.
Curtis Samuel - Has 20+ FP in 3 of his last 4 with 5 TDs in his last five games. The Vikings have allowed the second-most WR TDs (17) and the second-most FPG to slot receivers.
Dalvin Cook - 22+ touches in seven straight and the Panthers are still giving up the fifth-most FPG to RBs (27.0). Even Ronald Jones ripped them for 23/192/1 rushing two weeks ago.
Justin Jefferson - Leads the league with 18.8 YPR and might lead Week 12 in target share with Adam Theilen expected to miss the game. He does better vs. man, and the Panthers play a lot of zone. But have to think he’ll catch a bunch of short passes at worst. No CB Donte Jackson (toe) would help, and he’s doubtful.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Adam Thielen - On the COVID-19 list and likely out, but check projections for the latest leading up to 1pm kickoffs.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Kyle Rudolph - Irv Smith is doubtful to play, so Rudolph is a great streamer this week.
He has 3+ catches in three straight and the Panthers have given up double-digit FP to six different receivers over their last five games.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Robby Anderson - He’s their underneath guy and that’s that. He has 4+ catches in every game, but only 4 end zone targets and he’s failed to reach 70+ yards in his last four straight.
D.J. Moore - He was clicking with PJ Walker last week and has been fine with Teddy and remains their downfield threat with 11/223/1 receiving on 18 targets in his last two. He could go cold any given game, but even his bad games aren’t horrible.
Mike Davis - One more week for him as the guy and a decent week for production. The struggling Cowboy running game and Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 174/2 scrimmage last week.
Kirk Cousins - Hard to use with confidence with Thielen not expected in the lineup, and the Panthers have mostly been stingy against the pass year. No CB Donte Jackson (toe) would help, and he’s doubtful. Kirkie may get 2-3 TDs at least.
Arizona Cardinals (6-4) at New England Patriots (4-6)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Christian Kirk - He’s cooled off, but still playing well. He is still averaging 7.0 targets and 4.5 catches per game over his last four contests and Hopkins often on Stephon Gilmore plus no Fitzgerald sets up well for Kirk to have a pretty big game.
Cam Newton - Coming off his second 300-yard passing game but failed to run for a TD last week. Cardinals have allowed multiple passing TDs to four straight QBs, and they’ve been giving up rushing production to QBs all year, and lately.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Kyler Murray - Is dealing with a throwing-shoulder injury from last week but he did play mostly with it for most of the game. But he also matched his season-low for rushing attempts with only 5/15. He won’t have Larry Fitzgerald, and DeAndre Hopkins will likely see a lot of Stephon Gilmore this week, but he does still have Christian Kirk and other weapons. But I’m lowering expectations a tad.
DeAndre Hopkins - He’s been up and down lately and he’ll be seeing a lot of Stephon Gilmore this week. Hopkins has never scored a touchdown in seven career games against the Patriots, so lower expectations for D-Hop.
Kenyan Drake - He’s back to being the top dog here and posted 4/31 receiving last week, which was a huge development. The Pats have been run all year, and are allowing 4.4 YPC to RBs.
Chase Edmonds - Has a solid 17/126/1 scrimmage in his first two games with Drake back, but the Patriots haven’t allowed more than 5 FP in receiving production to an opposing back since Chris Carson posted 3/36/1 receiving in Week 2.
Jakobi Meyers - Only a 7% target share last week but he was out there a lot and Tyler Lockett posted 9/67/1 receiving out of the slot against the Cardinals last week.
Damiere Byrd - Hard to trust, but exploded for 6/132/1 receiving last week on seven targets and John Brown posted 6/72 receiving against the Cardinals back in Week 10 as Byrd will look to produce in a revenge game as Brown did.
James White - Had a 24% target share and 57% snap share in a negative game script last week, which he turned into 6/64 receiving and 5/19 rushing against the Texans. It’s a tougher matchup, but no Rex Burkhead helps his catch total chances, and they could certainly be playing from behind.
Damien Harris - No Burkhead helps everyone, since he was catching passes and scoring short TDs. Sony Michel will be in the mix, most likely, though. Carlos Hyde managed 14/79/1 rushing in this matchup last week and he looked good doing it, so it’s a decent matchup.
Miami Dolphins (6-4) at New York Jets (0-10)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
DeVante Parker - He is a good play with the Jets down some corners from just 2 weeks ago. He managed just 3/35 receiving on eight targets against the Jets in Week 6, but their secondary is very beatable for Parker.
Jamison Crowder - Has been the odd man out lately with just 3/42/1 receiving on five targets in his two games with both Mims and Perriman in the lineup with Flacco. Crowder is Darnold’s guy, though, and he posted 7/48 receiving on 13 targets in this matchup earlier this season, so he has some hope as he avoids top outside CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Tua Tagovailoa - He can’t be trusted with them having the training wheels on him so far this year and with Ryan Fitzpatrick lurking. Fitz threw for 191/3 passing against the Jets earlier this season and was very sharp. He just didn’t have to throw much.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Jakeem Grant - He’s questionable but had a solid game against the Jets earlier this year with 4/45, and they are very beatable for Grant.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Mike Gesicki - He has 40+ receiving yards in three straight but he’s still not a reliable starter. He hasn’t reached double-digit FP or seen more than five targets since Week 5, so he’s still more of a desperation play.
Miami RBs - Salvon Ahmed is out, so it’s Matt Breida and whatever Myles Gaskin (knee) can give them, plus a little Patrick Laird. It’s not good. Kalen Ballage posted 73 scrimmage yards against the Jets last week, and Gaskin and Breida did combine for 148 total yards in this matchup back in Week 6.
Sam Darnold - Darnold has been out with an injury to his throwing shoulder, but he’s set to return. Joe Flacco has thrown for multiple scores in each of his last two games as Darnold’s fill-in, and it will be interesting to see if Darnold can make plays with WRs Perriman and Mims, as Flacco has. It will be interesting while having Darnold nowhere near our lineups, of course.
Breshad Perriman - Has made three big plays with Flacco and now has 50+ yards and double-digit FP in three of his last four games, including 4/62 receiving against the Dolphins in Week 6. He’s not hopeless, but I don’t love the matchup for him on the outside vs. CBs Jones and Howard.
Denzel Mims - Has a 29% target share or better in 3 of his first 4 games with 42+ receiving yards in every game. But his matchup is tougher than usual on the outside this week vs. CBs Jones and Howard.
Frank Gore - It’s Gore, Ty Johnson, and maybe former Eagle Josh Adams for the Jets for the foreseeable future. Gore had a solid 17 touches with 71 yards, so he’s viable if desperate. But he’ll likely disappoint with expectations up this week.
New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Denver Broncos (4-6)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
None of note.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Latavius Murray - He actually ran the same number of routes as Kamara last week with 11 and he could get some late play in an easy win for the Saints against a hapless Broncos team that doesn’t have a QB this week.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Taysom Hill - Might not have to do much in this one, given the Broncos’ QB situation, but at least he runs. He’s still a borderline QB1 this week, thanks to his running.
Alvin Kamara - Logged 0 catches last week, which should be corrected. Still, we’ll have to settle for 4-5 for now with Hill barring a change. The Saints may be able to run the ball more in a lopsided win, but that may not be much of Kamara.
Michael Thomas - They made it a point to get him the ball with Hill, and it worked, as he posted 9/104 receiving on 12 targets. The Broncos will be reeling and the Saints may not have to throw as much as planned, though. The Broncos did allow 6/61/1 receiving to DeVante Parker last week.
Emmanuel Sanders - Looked like a viable deep threat with Hill last week with 4/66 receiving on five targets last week with a 57-yard TD called back. Still, they probably won’t have to do much to win this one, so his upside is shaky.
Jared Cook - He wasn’t a factor last week, which may not be the case this week. He now has only 3/36 receiving on 6 targets in his last three games. At least the Broncos have given up some plays to seam stretchers Mike Gesicki (4/43) and Hayden Hurst (7/62) in the last three weeks, but Cook is a desperation play only right now.
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay - They may need to handle a lot of work, or as much as possible, given their QB situation. Gordon did look very good, surprisingly, finishing with 15/84/2 rushing (but also losing his fourth fumble). Of course, it’s a bad matchup against the tough Saints run defense that is giving up just 3.5 YPC to RBs.
Broncos Passing Game - Obviously, we’re in uncharted territory with Drew Lock and the two backup QBs out this week so no Brett Rypien, and no Jeff Driskel. It’ll be RB Royce Freeman under center at times and likely practice squad WR Kendall Hinton, who played QB at Wake Forest. It really means you can’t use any Bronco receivers unless absolutely desperate. Check our updated projections to see how your other players stack up this week vs. Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler, plus TE Noah Fant.
San Francisco 49ers (4-6) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Cooper Kupp - Went off last week with 11/145, which gave him 11 catches and 110+ receiving yards in two of his last three. He posted 3/11 receiving on six targets in this matchup in Week 6, but slot corner K’Waun Williams is out again, which helps. If Richard Sherman returns, that would be even better news for Kupp.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Brandon Aiyuk - He’s been trending toward missing Week 12 all weekend, so check projections prior to 1pm kickoff for the latest.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Gerald Everett - Tyler Higbee is likely out and he has 9/93 receiving on 71 routes since returning to the lineup three weeks ago while Everrett has 11/86 receiving on 67 routes in that span. Higbee posted 3/56 receiving and Everett had 3/27 in this matchup back in Week 6, so Everrett can easily get 4-5 catches for 50+ if you need a streamer.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Deebo Samuel - He will return this week with Brandon Aiyuk not expected to play. He posted 11/131/1 receiving in his last two games before his injury, but the Rams are allowing 29.3 FPG per game to WRs (2nd-fewest) and he could see some Jalen Ramsey, perhaps a lot of Ramsey.
Jordan Reed - He’s still questionable for this week, which is always scary with this guy. He did have a solid game his last time out, putting up 5/62 receiving on six targets and Mullens was looking for him as Reed saw a target on 33.3% of his routes in Week 10. Teams do throw to the TEs a lot against the outstanding Rams CBs.
Raheem Mostert - He is expected back this week with Jeff Wilson also back but no Tevin Coleman, who is out. Jerick McKinnon is also still in the mix, of course. Mostert had been getting a promising number of targets before being sidelined and put up 19/76 scrimmage in this matchup just before his injury. It’s a tough matchup, as the Rams are allowing just 20.2 FPG per game to RBs (3rd-fewest), but he’s usable for sure.
Jared Goff - Rams are now a passing team, apparently, perhaps because they don’t have much of a running game. Goff has hit 300+ passing yards in three straight with 49.7 attempts per game. He won’t likely be playing from behind this week or playing aggressively with a lead, though. Goff also averaged 5.2 YPA with 198/2 passing in this matchup in Week 6. True, the 49er defense is shakier but they could get Richard Sherman back this week. Goff is only an okay option.
Robert Woods - Erupted for 12/130/1 last week but had only 4/29 receiving in this matchup in Week 6. He did score, though. I like the matchup better for Cooper Kupp inside.
Josh Reynolds - He’s been consistently targeted and had posted 44+ receiving yards in five straight games heading into Week 11, he took a back seat last week to Woods and Kupp. He’s not standing out as a good play, since the Rams may not have to throw as much, but he did have 2/45/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 6.
Rams RBs - It’s still a mess with Darrell Henderson putting up only 10/9 scrimmage on 46% snap share last week while Malcolm Brown had 4/28 on a 38% share. Cam Akers had 6/19/1 on a 17% share. Henderson led this backfield with 14/88 rushing in this matchup back in Week 6 but Akers wasn’t in the mix then and this backfield has devolved for Henderson. They are all desperation plays only.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Patrick Mahomes - He’s been at 345+ yards on 42+ attempts in each of his last three games, and teams tend to throw on Tampa and their great run defense. Jared Goff attempted 51 passes against the Buccaneers last week for 376/3 passing.
Tyreek Hill - He has 98+ yards and 25+ FP with 5 TDs in just the last three weeks, as KC has been throwing it more. Robert Woods (12/130/1 receiving) and D.J. Moore (4/96/1) have gone off in this matchup the last two weeks.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Sammy Watkins - He will return to a beatable matchup by the numbers and a game that could feature a lot of passing. Watkins was getting it done earlier in the season with double-digit FP in three of his first five.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Travis Kelce - Tougher matchup, but he has put up 109+ receiving yards and 8+ catches in three straight games.
Mecole Hardman - He played only 15% of the snaps last week coming off the Covid list, so hard to trust with Watkins back.
Demarcus Robinson - Viable if you need him more than Hardman, as he has hit double-digit FP four times, including in their last three games.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 4 TDs his last four games, but only 10.3 touches/game in that span with Le’Veon Bell added. The Buccaneers are allowing 3.0 YPC and just 53.0 rushing yards per game to RBs so it’s a tough matchup. He can do it through the air, but that’s no lock.
Tom Brady - Not connecting down the field with his receivers and he’s topped 20+ FP twice in his last seven games. The Chiefs have a good secondary, but they have allowed 275+ yards and with 2+ TD passes in two straight by Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Brady will likely throw it 40+ times.
Mike Evans - Has a TD in eight games this year and is still averaging a healthy 8.7 targets per game since Antonio Brown entered the lineup. The Chiefs have allowed just eight TDs to WRs this season, though.
Chris Godwin - Season-high 10 targets last week, and 5+ catches in 6 of his 7 games. 7.3 targets per game since AB joined them, which is still solid.
Antonio Brown - His targets have risen in each of his three games, and he’s looked quite spry. Nelson Agholor got 6/88/1 receiving in this matchup last week, so AB is a solid WR3 option.
Rob Gronkowski - Just 5 catches in the last three games with AB, so Gronk has suffered the most from AB. The Chiefs gave up 7/88/1 receiving to Darren Waller with Jason Witten adding a TD last week, at least, and TB will have to throw a lot.
Ronald Jones - He has 8+ FP and 25+ rushing yards only once in his last 4, which was that huge game in Week 10 with the 90-yard TD run. Otherwise, he’s been maddening. The Chiefs can be run on, giving up 4.5 YPC, but if TB is playing from behind, that hurts Jones.
Leonard Fournette - Could be the guy they go to if they are playing from behind, since he is their “nickel” back, according to their HC. But he dropped three straight targets last week, so more of a desperation play only. The Chiefs are allowing a solid 5.5 catches per game to RBs this season.
Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- David Montgomery - Returns to the lineup with a good matchup, as the Packers are allowing 156.9 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season. Montgomery will get 20 opportunities in this one.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Jimmy Graham - Has only 2 TDs in his last 7 games and 35+ yards only twice. The Packers gave up two TDs to the Colts TEs last week, Graham has some hope, but the Packers had allowed just 1 TD in their first nine games before playing Indy last week.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Robert Tonyan - Good week to consider him after he bounced back with 5/44/1 last week. The Bears have allowed 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a TE in every game this season.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Mitchell Trubisky - He needs to let it rip now that he’s getting another chance, and he says he’s 100% with his shoulder. It’s a so-so matchup in GB, though. If he plays well, though, he would be a good streamer next week vs. Detroit.
Allen Robinson - Has double-digit FP in 8 straight, but will see a lot of top corner Jaire Alexander, but not all the time. A-Rob had a solid 14/127 receiving on 27 targets against the Packers last season.
Aaron Rodgers - Has 2+ TDs and 23+ FP in 5 straight, but tougher matchup here. Rodgers posted exactly 203/1 passing in each of his games against the Bears last season.
Davante Adams - Has scored in five straight with 7+ catches and 19+ FP in those five. Bears are tough outside on WRs but Adam Thielen posted 4/43/2 receiving in this matchup in Chicago’s last game.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - He has 50+ receiving yards in each of his last three but tougher matchup. Yet, Justin Jefferson got the Bears with 8/135 receiving in this matchup in Chicago’s last game. But Allen Lazard may be more involved. He finished behind Adams (39) and MVS (36) with 25 routes in his first action.
Aaron Jones - Not getting a ton of carries and hasn’t reached 60+ receiving yards in four straight games while averaging 12.0 carries per game. The Bears limited Dalvin Cook to 3.2 YPC (30/96 rushing) and 4/16 receiving in their last game, but they do have some key guys questionable, like DT Hicks.
