General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Deebo Samuel looks like an excellent captain on this Sunday night slate. He gets Jimmy G back who loves to sling the ball his way. He has seen 37% of target and 34% of air yards. The Colts secondary is beat up, so Samuel could have one of those ceiling games highlighted by a deep shot or two.
It’s crazy that Jonathan Taylor isn’t see a larger share of the team’s carries, but what he is seeing is all of the Colts’ carries inside the 5-yard line. He works into the passing game and is a homerun hitter if he can find a crease. I think one way to get unique with Taylor is to also roster another Colts’ back, they split enough snaps that Hines can get there too.
Eli Mitchell, much like Taylo is also a homerun hitter. With Jimmy G back under center, I think we’ll see the 49ers become even more run-heavy than they have been with Trey Lance. I also think the game script here is going to allow Mitchell to get carries throughout this game. Trey Lance really put a damper on the upside of the running backs in this offense, but now Mitchell should see the bulk of the running workload. He’s also coming off a bye and should be fully healthy.
Flex
Jimmy Garoppolo is in play as the favorite on this slate. He isn’t too expensive so I can see him sneaking into an optimal lineup. I like pairing him up Deebo obviously, but if he is going to land in top lineups he’ll have to throw for multiple touchdowns, so tacking on Ross Dwelley or an extra receiver like Sanu or Benjamin makes a lot of sense.
Carson Wentz have been throwing the ball more than expected and Wentz has looked pretty solid doing it over the last few weeks. It’s a pretty easy stack with Wentz as well. The target share should be concentrated between Michael Pittman, Mo Allie-Cox, and a sprinkling of Nyheim Hines and Ashton Dulin
Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack are decent dart throws as they account for nearly 40% combined share of the running back touches. Hines obviously makes more sense in games scripted as 49ers heavy games as he’ll need to catch some check downs in hurry up mode when the Colts are losing. Mack makes more sense in projected Colts wins
Trey Sermon and Jamychal Hasty aren’t my favorites on this slate. I personally think it’s going to be the Eli Mitchell show, but if you are mass multi-entering a 5% dart throw on these two spell backs isn’t a terrible idea.
Ashton Dulin is going is less than $1,000 on DraftKings so he is going to make a lot of lineups work. I wouldn’t even mind trying him out at captain and see what that can get you in terms of studs. With Hilton and Campbell out, He should work as the third option at the very least. Zach Pascal would probably be the second option I think you have to tie him to Carson Wentz because he is an end zone threat who doesn’t rack up a ton of volume, but could have a two touchdown game.
Michael Pittman Pittman is going to be the target hog in this contest. He probably should be a captain consideration, but I like to narrow down my captain pool a bit more than usual. If you like to spread captain exposure around. Go for it with Pittman. He currently has a 34% air yard share and the Colts are missing one-third of their air yards in this game with Hilton and Campbell out.
Michael Stachan is a solid dart throw, but you’re hoping for a touchdown. I don’t think he can get the requisite volume to be a stand alone play. You are pairing him up with Wentz as well. Mo Allie-Cox and Jack Doyle are completely different players. They both share about the same target share, but Cox is an athlete that can make contested catches. Cox sees a bit more downfield targets, while Doyle is a catch and fall down tight end. If it isn’t obvious, I prefer Mo.
Brandon Aiyuk could very well have a big game here, but I just can’t get behind him at this price. He has been out-targeted by Deebo and I don’t think you can get both of them in your lineup. The 49ers are just too run-heavy to support two receivers in that price range.
Ross Dwelley is an appealing option as he’s priced not too much higher than the kickers, but has a higher ceiling. Mohammed Sanu and Travis Benjamin are the other two dart throws that can be added to Jimmy G lineups. Benjamin can land in optimals with one long touchdown, his specialty during his career. Sanu will have a harder time finding the optimal lineups. They both saw three targets, though Sanu’s were lower aDOT.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Jonathan Taylor
Flex: Jimmy G, Deebo Samuel, Ashton Dulin
Captain/MVP: Jonathan Taylor
Flex: Colts DST, Ross Dwelley, Deebo Samuel
Captain/MVP: Eli Mitchell
Flex: Carson Wentz, Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman
Captain/MVP: Eli Mitchell
Flex: 49ers DST, Mo Allie-Cox, Carson Wentz
Captain/MVP: Deebo Samuel
Flex: Jimmy G, Carson Wentz, Ashton Dulin
Captain/MVP: Deebo Samuel
Flex: Jimmy G, Ross Dwelley, Michael Pittman
