General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Both Quarterbacks in this game are captain viable due to their ability to pick up points with their legs. Any quarterback that can score fantasy points without bringing along a pass-catching teammate, it gives them a massive captain advantage. Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts each have that ability. Hurts has tacked on an average of 10 fantasy points per game through two weeks. Prescott is a threat to run, but will not have as many designed runs called for him. He remains a threat to pull the ball at the goal line and score on the ground. It’s rare that both quarterbacks are viable captains in a game to the degree that we have on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
The Cowboys receiving corps is a bit banged up with Michael Gallup on the IR, allowing CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper to soak up a bit more of a target share in this electric passing offense. They’ve accounted for nearly identical 25% target share through two weeks. I think it will be difficult to have them both in your lineup. I also think there’s a very likely chance one of them is in the optimal lineup. If you use a optimizer, making a rule that every lineup contains exactly one of Cooper or Lamb seems like a good idea, whether that means they are in the captain or the flex
Flex
The Cowboys run game is very tricky as we saw last week when Tony Pollard out-produced Ezekiel Elliot. If Elliott is going to get into optimal lineups it will most likely be at the expense of the rest of the passing offense. Dak and Zeke could have a connection, but more than likely Elliott will need to have multiple rushing touchdowns to hit the optimal lineup which crushes the Cowboys’ pass catchers. It makes more sense to add Pollard to Dallas passing stacks as he’s a but cheaper and has out-targeted Zeke a bit this season.
I don’t love Miles Sanders in this game. He certainly could hit a big play, but I’ll bet against it because we have to take stands somewhere. Kenny Gainwell is more in play for me as he is inexpensive and has been used extensively for a second-stringer through two weeks. He has the same amount of targets as Sanders, seven. He’s also seen his fair share of carries. I’ll take the discount here.
The tertiary pass-catchers for the Cowboys have a clear order for me. Cedrick Wilson filled in admirably for Michael Gallup last week. Obviously he’s not going to perform like Gallup most weeks, but Wilson is a dependable target for Dak. He’s played about half the snaps on offense this season and has racked up 5 catches. The fact he’s on the field about half the time is encouraging for a one game slate. Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin have pretty much split usage, so I like rotating them into lineups instead of taking a stand. Since it will be tough to use Amari and CeeDee, adding Wilson or one of the tight ends to a stack makes a lot of sense.
Devonta Smith is going to have a difficult matchup with Trayvon Diggs. Being that Jalen Hurts will be a big part of my captain pool, I can’t not slot Devonta in, but I will probably getting more of Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins in lineup runs because of price and that’s fine with me. Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz haven’t been involved as much as expected through two weeks only seeing seven and four targets respectively. Smith, Reagor, and Goedert should make up the bulk of your Hurts stacks. Being that Hurts runs so often, it makes sense to have stacks with one or two receivers.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Dak Prescott
Flex: CeeDee Lamb, Cedric Wilson, Jalen Reagor
Captain/MVP: Dak Prescott
Flex: Amari Cooper, Tony Pollard, Devonta Smith
Captain/MVP: Jalen Hurts
Flex: Jalen Reagor, CeeDee Lamb, Kenny Gainwell
Captain/MVP: Jalen Hurts
Flex: Devonta Smith, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz
Captain/MVP: CeeDee Lamb
Flex: Dak Prescott, Cedric Wilson, Jalen Hurts
