General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Lamar Jackson has to chill with the Chipotle, guys been sick every week of the season it seems. It does look like he’s fine for this game against the Browns. Obvious Lamar will be a captain consideration, however he’s not as much of a lock consideration as he used to be because he’s throwing the ball a bit more than normal, bringing receivers into play.
Mark Andrews owns a 23% target market share and air yard share in the offense. With the Browns’ pass rush getting beat on Jackson, I could see Jackson targeting him often as a safety blanket when he’s feeling the heat. He obviously has the touchdown scoring upside we are looking for in captains as well.
Marquise Brown’s status is up in the air currently, but his massive air yards share and fairly reasonable price make him an excellent captain. This would normally be the spot where’d I’d mention you can play a cheaper Ravens’ WR If Brown sits, but I think builds won’t require a cheap captain. The studs in this game possess too high a ceiling. I think you’ll need one of them as your captain
Nick Chubb has been getting the workhorse usage as expected this season. He’s hit 100 yards in four of his last five and has carried the ball 20+ times in four of six. Despite being the size of a grinder, Chubb can make one cut and be off to the racers. If rostering him in the captain, you’re hoping for a long touchdown run or two which is well within the realm of possibilities. I think Chubb can be the lone Brown in 1-5 lineups in favor of the Ravens.
Flex
If I’m being completely honest, Baker Mayfield may be the first quarterback that I X out of my player pool. Baker has been atrocious and the Browns are going to need to run the football to win. I can see this being a slog and Baker finishing with single digit fantasy points for the third week in a row.
Kareem Hunt should be available for the Browns in this game and makes a solid leverage play off Chubb. Hunt also has more pass-catching chops than Chubb so he makes sense in Ravens heavy lineups projecting a lopsided win.
Jarvis Landry is more of a volume pass-catcher of the low aDOT variety so he works a bit like Hunt where I like him as the lone piece in Ravens heavy lineups. He has accounted for 23% of targets in the last three weeks.
Donovan Peoples-Jones status is in doubt, but he’s a really good play if he’s in. Since OBJ left for So Cal, Peoples-Jones owns 35% of the Browns air yards. Those are Marquise Brown type numbers. I think he correlates well with Baker, if you have the stomach to play him.
Austin Hooper has five targets in three of his last four games. At his price and usage, he’s going to have to score a touchdown to hit value, so I will be a bit underweight. David Njoku doesn’t see as many targets but he’s much more athletic and can turn a slant into a 60-yard touchdown. I like using him as leverage.
Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray are leverage off Lamar, but Freeman can be used as part of offensive stacks. He gets involved in the passing game especially around the goal line. Murray getting there will probably require two rushing touchdowns which directly impact Lamar’s ceiling.
Sammy Watkins and Rashad Bateman will be massively owned if Brown can’t play. In the games since Watkins return, he has been used as a deep threat with an aDOT of 16 yards. He was basically Brown’s replacement. Bateman is more of the possession receiver. I think both are solid plays, but would lean Watkins if Brown is out. Especially because I think his ownership will be lower than Bateman
Dart Throws:
Jamarcus Bradley had 46 yards in his last outing and could be the cheap flier needed to get access to a stud heavy lineup
Hunter Bryant had two catches for a month straight before coming up empty last week. He’s got end zone target size and would hit the optimal with a touchdown
Rashard Higgins has been quiet but did see five targets last week. Would be more in-play if DPJ has to sit the game out
Devin Duvernay is a special teamer that has caught four passes in consecutive weeks. Makes sense in Bal DST lineups, but also gets a big bump if Marquise Brown is out.
Josh Oliver gets on the field enough to be a consideration in mass multi entry player pools. A touchdown immediately puts him into optimals if you need a stud heavy lineup.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Marquise Brown, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nick Chubb
Captain: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Devonta Freeman, Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry
Captain: Marquise Brown
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Bal DST
Captain: Mark Andrews
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Kareem Hunt, David Njoku
Captain: Nick Chubb
Flex: Rashod Bateman, Jarvis Landry, Justin Tucker
