General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Terry McLaurin has the usage that you like to target in a captain on a single game slate. McLaurin owns a 30% target share and a 45% air yards share. When we have teams like the Bengals or Cardinals where four or five pass-catchers call all be the top target-getter on the team in any given week, it’s difficult to take a stand with any of them at the 1.5x spot. McLaurin will almost assuredly be the top targeted pass-catcher in this offense and most likely the top fantasy point scorer.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are in the same boat on the other side of the ball. The duo soak up 53% of targets and 76% of the air yards on the Seahawks. With usage like that from McLaurin and Lockett/Metcalf, it’s really difficult for any other skill player to land as the optimal captain. The Football Team has been absolutely dreadful against the pass. They’ve allowed the third most fantasy points to the wide receiver position and the most points to the quarterback position…
Russell Wilson can obviously land as the optimal captain, but he’s going to need to have some touchdown variance swoop in. If Wilson’s touchdowns go to guys like Gerald Everett and Freddie Swain, he can sneak in as the optimal captain. Wilson can also use his legs to get some fantasy points as well, though there has been less emphasis on him scrambling.
Antonio Gibson is the only other player on Washington that I would entertain as a captain play. He correlates negatively with Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin, so if he’s in your captain I would severely limit my exposure to those two or completely X them out altogether. When you think about it, Gibson running roughshod and scoring touchdowns, ultimately landing in the captain spot is not good at all for Heinicke and McLaurin’s ceiling performances.
Flex
Taylor Heinicke makes for a solid flex play, but when there is one pass-catcher that gets all the targets, they are almost always going to outperform their quarterback. One look at the big statistical games Heinicke has put up this season and you’ll see McLaurin slightly outperforms him. Their salaries are close enough that I’m comfortable relegating Heinicke to flex only. He certainly can land as the captain if he gets a touchdown sneak or something of that nature
JD McKissic and Jaret Patterson fairly different pieces as backup running backs. McKissic is a nice piece to add to Seahawks heavy lineups projecting a lot of catch up garbage receptions for McKissic in the second half. Patterson is more of Gibsons rushing backup. He’s a flier play in hopes he vultures a touchdown but it’s unlikely.
DeAndre Carter, Cam Sims, and Adam Humphries all get the crumbs after McLaurin is done eating in this offense. Carter has become the number two and works the short low aDOT routes for the most part. Carter also returns on special teams so pairing him up with the Football Team defense may be a way to create upside in large-field tournaments. Humphries will eat into the low aDot stuff if he’s active. I actually think he’s a bit better of a play than Carter if he’s on the field. Sims is a touchdown or bust option. He pairs well with Heinicke.
Logan Thomas and John Bates will be the tight end options available to Heinicke in this game. At least it sounds like Logan Thomas will be activated and play. Thomas actually makes things a bit more interesting if he is active. He could potentially cut into McLaurin’s massive workload and make Heinicke a viable captain. It’s not like Thomas was banged up and may give it a go this week. He’s been on IR and if he plays on Monday it probably means he’s healthy. Bates will be a solid flex punt type play if Thomas is out.
Alex Collins and Deejay Dallas are the only healthy backs in Seattle at the given moment so they’ll see plenty of work. Collins will get the traditional running back workload and be the between the tackles runner. Dallas is the more interesting back for me. He’s can be dynamic with the ball in his hands and I’m projecting he gets most of the passing down work which is valuable on DraftKings more so than FanDuel.
There are three Seahawks pass-catchers that can be played confidently after Lockett and Metcalf. By confidently I mean they’ll be on the field and most likely get a few targets because honestly outside of the top two, it’s tough to trust anyone else. Gerald Everett has 12 targets in the last two games, but he’s priced up quite a bit for a non-marquee tight end. Freddie Swain is the WR3 and makes a nice cheap punt in hopes he lucks out from some touchdown variance. Will Dissly can be used in mass-multi entry in the same manner as Swain, just hoping he scores a touchdown in lieu of Everrett.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Terry McLaurin
Flex: Taylor Heinicke, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett
Captain: Tyler Lockett
Flex: Russell Wilson, Freddie Swain, JD McKissic
Captain: DK Metcalf
Flex: Russell Wilson, DeAndre Carter, Antonio Gibson
Captain: Russell Wilson
Flex: Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, Logan Thomas
Captain: Antonio Gibson
Flex: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Adam Humphries
