CFB Draftkings Cash and Single Entry: September 4

The first full week of college football is here!

Saturday’s slate is filled with lots of storylines I can’t wait to see play out. I’m pumped to see a Steve Sarkisian offense built around the strengths of Bijan Robinson. I can’t wait to see Bryce Young’s debut as he airs it out to a whole new crop of fast and talented WRs. I’m intrigued to see what type of numbers Marvin Mims puts up as the clear-cut WR1. So many great options on this slate.

Let’s dig in.

Against the Spread Picks

West Virginia (-3) vs. Maryland

Texas (-8.5) vs Louisiana

Fresno State (+20.5) vs Oregon

Total Wagers

West Virginia vs. Maryland (Under 59)

Fresno State vs Oregon (Over 64)

Quarterbacks

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma vs Tulane (DK: $9.7K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 67.5 | Implied: 49.5)

The potential number one overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Spencer Rattler, begins his season versus a generous Tulane secondary. In 2020, this Tulane DEF was ranked 115th in PASS YPG (278.7) and 110th in PASS YPA (8.5). Do you know which passing offense routinely leads the nation in YPA? You guessed it, Oklahoma. This is their modus operandi. Since Lincoln Riley took over the offense in 2016, Oklahoma has been top-5 in YPA every year, but one. That one year they finished 8th. With explosive WRs Marvin Mims, Mike Woods, and Mario Williams, Tulane is in trouble. This is the ideal week one matchup for Rattler.

Bryce Young, Alabama vs Miami (DK: $8.9K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 40.5)

Saturday brings the much anticipated debut of former Top247 QB Bryce Young for Alabama as he faces an average, but experienced, Miami secondary. The Hurricanes are replacing 3 defensive ends drafted in the 2021 NFL Draft including two first-round picks, Gregory Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips. Their replacements are significantly worse so Young should have plenty of time to pick apart a Miami secondary that ranked 65th in PASS YPG. In particular, this secondary struggled against speedy WRs like Tutu Atwell (8-114-2), Dyami Brown (4-167-0), Myron Mitchell (8-117-0), Jordan Addison (8-147-0), and Brennan Presley (6-118-3). Alabama has speed for days in John Metchie, Jameson Williams, and JoJo Earle. Facing a limited pass rush, Young is going to have a field day in his debut and is reasonably priced at $8.9K.

Alternatives:

D’Eriq King, Miami vs Alabama (DK: $7.4K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 21.0)

Will Rogers, Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech (DK: $8.7K | FD: NA | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 37.75)

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Texas vs Louisiana (DK: $7.4K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 33.25)

Bijan Robinson will never be $7.4K on DK again after this week. Robinson is a complete RB who showed off his massive potential last year. Check these stats out — of all RBs with a minimum of 80 carries, Robinson led all RBs in yards per attempt, yards after contact, and percentage of yards that came on explosive runs. What does this tell us? Robinson is both a physical RB that can pick up the tough yards and an explosive RB who can break off long runs. New HC and play caller, Steve Sarkisian, is notorious for featuring his RBs. In his eight seasons as a full-time play caller, Sarkisian’s primary RB has averaged 266/1438/14 rushing and 31/303/2 receiving. He already stated Bijan will be the focal point of the offense and receive 18-22 touches per game. Start Bijan and don’t think twice about it.

Breece Hall, Iowa State vs Northern Iowa (DK: $9.0K | FD: NA | O/U: NA | Implied: NA)

Breece Hall, the CFB leader in rushing yards last year, returns in 2021 ready to build off his epic campaign. Hall is the centerpiece of the Iowa State offense after garnering 25 touches per game in 2020. Last year, Hall had 100-plus total yards in all, but one game. He also had multiple TDs in 75 percent of his games. I expect Hall to play no more than three quarters in this potential blowout, but still think he produces well based on consistently elite production in 2020.

Leddie Brown, West Virginia vs Maryland (DK: $8.0K | FD: $9.6K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 30.0)

Leddie Brown broke out in a big way in 2020 for West Virginia with 230 touches, 1,122 yards, and 11 TDs in only 10 games. Averaging 23 touches per game, Brown was the focal point of the offense last year, and we should expect much of the same in 2021 with a depleted, young backfield behind Brown. He faces a Maryland DEF who ranked 115th in RUSH YPG (230) in 2020 so he will have ample opportunity to hit value in this contest at only $8.0K.

Alternatives:

Jerome Ford, Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) (DK: $7.0K | FD: NA | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 36.5)

Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State vs Stanford (DK: $6.3K | FD: $8.3K | O/U: 53.0 | Implied: 28.0)

Austin Jones, Stanford vs Kansas State (DK: $7.2K | FD: $9.4K | O/U: 53.0 | Implied: 25.0)

$4.5K-or-less options:

Marcus Williams, Louisiana Tech vs Mississippi State (DK: $4.1K | FD: NA | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 37.75)

Rasheen Ali, Marshall vs Navy (DK: $3.3K | FD: NA | O/U: 47.0 | Implied: 24.75)

Receivers

Marvin Mims, Oklahoma vs Tulane (DK: $7.7K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 67.5 | Implied: 49.5)

Marvin Mims’ 2021 campaign was pretty incredible in hindsight. As a true freshman, he led the teams in targets, receptions, yards and TDs while finishing seventh on the team in total passing snaps. His efficiency was otherworldly considering those facts. As the clear-cut WR1 in 2021, Mims is set to have a monster year. Over the last six years, Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley’s WR1 averaged 80/1341/11.5. I mentioned above how porous the Tulane PASS DEF was in 2020 so Mims should have ample opportunity to make enough big plays to hit value at an affordable $7.7K on DK.

Jameson Williams, Alabama vs Miami (DK: $5.2K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 40.5)

I chose Jameson Williams as my Alabama WR to highlight here due to his cheaper price tag as I personally do not see a big difference between him and John Metchie. Do not be fooled by his modest production as the WR3 for Ohio State in 2020 — Williams has the potential to be an elite playmaker and has already earned the respect of his teammates and coaches, being named a starter after arriving in Alabama this summer from Ohio State. I mentioned above that Miami has struggled against speed WRs. Williams ran a 10.54 100m, which translates to high-4.3, low-4.4 in the 40. I’m expecting a big game from Williams as the defense focuses on trying to stop Metchie. For his potential outcome, he is very cheap at $5.2 on DK.

Jaden Walley, Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech (DK: $6.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 37.75)

Jaden Walley caught fire to end the 2020 season as Will Rogers’ security blanket. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, Walley had at least five receptions and 100 yards receiving in every game averaging 26.3 FPG on DK. He actually broke the freshman Mississippi State receiving record on his way to becoming a Freshman All-American. Walley will face a Louisiana Tech secondary that ranked 83rd versus opposing WRs in 2020 in FPG (40.9) and we all know Mike Leach’s obsession with throwing the rock. Walley is a great play at $6.9K on DK.

Alternatives:

John Metchie, Alabama vs Miami (DK: $5.2K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 40.5)

Jalen Cropper, Fresno State vs Oregon (DK: $6.1K | FD: NA | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 21.75)

Jordan Whittington, Texas vs Louisiana (DK: $5.0K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 33.25)

$4.5K-or-less options:

Makai Polk, Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech (DK: $3.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 37.75)

Charleston Rambo, Miami vs Alabama (DK: $4.3K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 21.0)

Jadon Haselwood, Oklahoma vs Tulane (DK: $4.5K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 67.5 | Implied: 49.5)

Mario Williams, Oklahoma vs Tulane (DK: $3.0K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 67.5 | Implied: 49.5)