Welcome to another week of CFB DFS! The Saturday main slates have been good to us this year and I’m expecting another big week with lots of affordable options again at WR.
There are a few lineup construction questions we need to answer this week. Malik Cunningham is a lock to be one of our QBs, but who is our Superflex QB and why is it Tanner Mordecai or Max Duggan? Without Garrett Wilson on this slate, who are the cheaper WR targets for us? Should we go with the higher ceiling of Bijan Robinson or the safer floor of Chez Mellusi? This feels like a crossroads for George Holani. Can we trust him in the ultimate “get right” matchup versus Utah State?
Come find out…
Against the Spread Picks
LSU (-2.5) vs Mississippi State
Texas A&M (-5.5) vs Arkansas
Total Wagers
Boise State vs Utah State (Under 65.5)
SMU vs TCU (Over 64.0)
Quarterbacks
Malik Cunningham, Louisville vs Florida State (DK: $8.8K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Malik Cunningham paid off for us last Friday night with his best performance of the year, 35.5 FPs. He is now averaging 32.6 FPG through three games. Cunningham, a classic Konami Code QB, is averaging 69 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game this year. The FSU defense is ranked 116th in PASS YPG (289.0), giving Cunningham a massive ceiling this week. He is the one QB lock on this slate in Cash/SE (single-entry) contests.
Max Duggan, TCU vs SMU (DK: $8.7K | FD: $10.6K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.0)
Max Duggan is similar to Adrian Martinez, both produce solid FPs and neither look good doing it. Initially when I looked at this slate, Duggan priced at $8.7K seemed high, but when you break down the matchup, it makes sense. The SMU defense is ranked 122nd in pass YPG (317.3) and just allowed Louisiana Tech QB, Austin Kendall, to throw for 351 yards and 4 TDs while running for 20 yards and an additional score. Duggan could be in store for a massive game versus SMU. Versus California, Duggan threw for 234 yards and 3 TDs while rushing for 71 yards and another score. TCU has the second highest team total on the slate at 37 points. This game has serious shootout potential so we need to have Max Duggan or Tanner Mordecai in our lineup.
Tanner Mordecai, SMU vs TCU (DK: $9.0K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Tanner Mordecai is one of the hottest QBs to start the year, averaging 341 yards and 5.33 TDs per game through three games. He also provides sneaky good production on the ground, averaging 42 yards rushing over the last two games. TCU looked vulnerable on defense versus below average California QB, Chase Garbers, allowing him to throw for 304 yards and two TDs with 43 yards on the ground. I like Mordecai to hit value in this contest, but he is the highest-priced QB on this slate so that’s something to consider.
SMU’s Tanner Mordecai so far this season:
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 18, 2021
♨️ 4 TDs, 344 total YDS vs. UNT (W)
♨️ 7 TDs, 317 YDS vs. ACU (W)
♨️ 5 TDs, 446 total YDS vs. LA Tech (W)
UNREAL 😤 pic.twitter.com/9zIHPVhdml
Alternatives:
Max Johnson, LSU vs Mississippi State (DK: $8.3K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 26.75)
Will Rogers, Mississippi State vs LSU (DK: $7.8K | FD: $9.4K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 42.25)
Casey Thompson, Texas vs Texas Tech (DK: $7.2K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 34.5)
KJ Jefferson, Arkansas vs Texas A&M (DK: $5.7K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 48.0 | Implied: 21.25)
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson, Texas vs Texas Tech (DK: $7.2K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 34.5)
Bijan Robinson has been as advertised over the first three weeks of the season averaging 29 FPG. In two of those games Bijan had 36-plus FPs, garnering 20-plus touches in each contest. He is dynamic as both a runner and receiver and is the focal point of a Texas offense with the fourth highest implied team total on the slate at 34 points. At $7.2K, I’m heavily targeting Bijan in my lineups.
Blake Corum, Michigan vs Rutgers (DK: $6.7K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 35.0)
Blake Corum was touted as a breakout player all offseason by the Michigan coaching staff and has proven why over the first three weeks, averaging 36.1 FPG while splitting carries with Hassan Haskins. Corum is averaging 135.7 YPG on only 16 carries per game and has scored 30-plus FPs in every game this season. For the life of me I cannot figure out why he is only $6.7K on DK. He is my lock of the week at RB in this slate.
Blake Corum has scored a touchdown on over 10 percent of his SNAPS this season. He's scored on 14.8 percent of his offensive touches. He's good at football.
— Clayton Sayfie (@CSayf23) September 19, 2021
Chez Mellusi, Wisconsin vs Notre Dame (DK: $6.4K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 47.0 | Implied: 26.25)
Chez Mellusi was not the Wisconsin RB1 we were expecting to start the season, but he has been a revelation through the first two games. He is averaging 25.5 carries for 132.5 yards and 2 TDs. Notre Dame has been soft against the run this year, ranking 75th in rush YPG (148.3) and 91st in rush YPC (4.32). Wisconsin is going to run the ball early and often with Mellusi. If you want a bit of salary relief, you can pivot off Bijan Robinson to Mellusi and still hit value.
George Holani, Boise State vs Utah State (DK: $5.1K | FD: NA | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 37.5)
George Holani has been off to a slow start this year as he has been recovering from an injury, but he is finally not on a snap count and faces a soft Utah State run defense ranked 119th in rush YPG (217) and 123rd in rush YPC (5.76). This is the ultimate “get right” matchup for Holani. I love Holani’s talent, and believe this is the game he puts it all together. At $5.1K, he should have no problem hitting value in this contest.
Alternatives:
Breece Hall, Iowa State vs Baylor (DK: $7.0K | FD: $9.9K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 27.5)
Zach Evans, TCU vs SMU (DK: $6.2K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.0)
Calvin Tyler, Utah State vs Boise State (DK: $5.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 28.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech vs Texas (DK: $4.1K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 26.5)
Trevion Cooley, Louisville vs Florida State (DK: $4.1K | FD: $5.4K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Receivers
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame vs Wisconsin (DK: $5.7K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 47.0 | Implied: 20.75)
Michael Mayer came down to earth after starting off scorching hot over the first two weeks. After being targeted 24 times in the first two games, Mayer saw only two targets versus Purdue. In a low-scoring affair versus the top-ranked rush defense in the nation, expect Mayer to be heavily involved in Notre Dame’s offensive game plan as the one schematic advantage they have. I like Mayer to have a bounce back game versus Wisconsin and I love his price point at $5.7K.
Jaden Walley, Mississippi State vs LSU (DK: $4.8K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 42.25)
Jaden Walley’s production is slightly down from last year, but he is still incredibly consistent, averaging 16.2 FPG. In Mississippi State’s three games this year, Walley has 16.4, 15.4, and 16.8 FPs. Mississippi State is leading the nation in passing attempts per game at 54.3 so there are plenty of targets to go around. Walley is one of the safest bets on the slate to hit value at $4.8K.
Reggie Roberson, SMU vs TCU (DK: $4.5K | FD: $7.1K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Reggie Roberson is discounted on DK due to his slow start to the year coming back from an ankle injury. Last year, before his ankle injury, Roberson was unbelievable, averaging 24.5 FPG. Although he started slow this year, he has increased his receptions or yards in each successive game this year. In fact, last game he had 7 targets for 6 receptions and 71 yards with his first TD of the year. I think this is the breakout game for Roberson as he smashes value at $4.5K.
Deion Smith, LSU vs Mississippi State (DK: $4.0K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 26.75)
Deion Smith started at WR versus CMU and took full advantage of his opportunity, catching 5 passes for 135 yards and 2 TDs. This might seem like it came out of nowhere, but most LSU beat writers were touting Smith as the breakout freshman all offseason. However, Smith struggled with injuries throughout fall camp. He is finally healthy now and looks like the WR2 LSU has been looking for. Despite his big game last week, DK still has Smith priced at $4.0K. He will certainly hit value in this slate and allows us to spend up at other positions.
Ed Orgeron on the breakout game for #LSU freshman WR Deion Smith, who was the No. 1 ranked prospect out of Mississippi.
— Shea Dixon (@Sheadixon) September 19, 2021
"He reminds me of Justin Jefferson in a lot of ways."
Alternatives:
Kayshon Boutte, LSU vs Mississippi State (DK: $7.7K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 26.75)
Khalil Shakir, Boise State vs Utah State (DK: $7.4K | FD: NA | O/U: 65.5 | Implied: 37.5)
Grant Calcaterra, SMU vs TCU (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.6K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Xavier Worthy, Texas vs Texas Tech (DK: $4.7K | FD: $6.9K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 34.5)
