The first full week of college football is here!
Tonight’s slate is filled with a bunch of games that I’m excited to watch, and with great DFS options. I’m pumped to see new OC Tim Plough implement his new offense at Boise State featuring talented lesser-known players like Khalil Shakir and George Holani. I’m interested to see if Gus Malzahn will tailor his system to fit Dillon Gabriel’s strengths. I’m intrigued to see how the Ohio State RB touches are distributed. And finally, only DFS could make me so excited to watch Eastern Washington face UNLV, and let me tell you, I’m pumped to follow that game.
Let’s dig in.
Against the Spread Picks
Central Florida (-5.5) vs. Boise State
Ohio State (-14) vs. Minnesota
South Florida (+18.5) vs.North Carolina State
Central Florida vs. Boise State (Under 68.5)
Ohio State vs. Minnesota (Under 63.5)
South Florida vs.North Carolina State (Over 59)
CJ Stroud, Ohio State vs Minnesota (DK: $8.0K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 38.75)
CJ Stroud is taking over as QB1 for an Ohio State team with the best collection of WRs in recent memory. Justin Fields averaged 262.5 PASS YPG and 47.9 RUSH YPG last year. Those numbers may dip slightly with Stroud, but I expect him to still be extremely productive this year. He starts off with a plus matchup against a Minnesota defense that was ranked 70th versus opposing QBs surrendering 24.4 FPG. With an implied team total of 38.75 points, expect Stroud to have a solid debut and hit value at $8.0K on DK.
Eric Barriere, Eastern Washington vs UNLV (DK: $5.2K | FD: NA | O/U: 67.0 | Implied: 32.5)
Eric Barriere might be the most popular QB play on the slate tonight and rightfully so. Barriere averaged over 42 passing attempts per game and almost 3 TDs per game through the air during the shortened Spring football season for Eastern Washington. UNLV was ranked 94th versus opposing QBs in 2020 allowing 26.6 FPG so this is certainly a plus matchup for Barriere and he only costs $5.2K on DK. It’s really hard to envision a scenario where Barriere does not hit value in this contest.
Hank Bachmeier, Boise State vs Central Florida (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.6K | O/U: 68.5 | Implied: 31.5)
Hank Bachmeier is a talented passer who has started his first two years at Boise State when healthy. He will be paired with new pass-happy OC, Tim Plough. Over the last three years at UC Davis, Plough’s QB averaged 42 attempts, 310 yards and 2.5 TDs per game. Bachmeier has a great matchup facing an UCF DEF ranked 129th versus opposing QBs surrendering 32.5 FPG. UCF will have a new defensive scheme under new UCF DC Travis Williams who was the former Auburn LB coach with new UCF HC Gus Malzahn. Last year, Auburn ranked 68th versus opposing QBs allowing 24 FPG. Volume plus opportunity should give Bachmeier a nice floor in this matchup.
Devin Leary, North Carolina State vs South Florida (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 38.75)
North Carolina State, with the return of a healthy Devin Leary, is an offense that I’m projecting to take a big leap under 2nd year OC Tim Beck. Before his injury last year, Leary had success with Beck averaging 241 YPG and 2.33 TDs per game. In 2020, USF ranked 121st versus opposing QBs allowing 30.4 FPG. With an implied team total of 38.75 points, Leary will have plenty of opportunity to take advantage of a weak USF secondary.
Jayden Daniels, Arizona State vs Southern Utah (DK: $8.5K | FD: $K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 50.5)
Joe Milton, Tennessee vs Bowling Green (DK: $8.3K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 48.0)
D’Wan Mathis, Temple vs. Rutgers (DK: $4.9K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 18.5)
Cade Fortin, South Florida vs North Carolina State (DK: $5.0K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 20.25)
Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota vs Ohio State (DK: $8.6K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 24.75)
Mohamed Ibrahim was the definition of a workhorse RB in 2020 averaging 29 attempts, 154 yards and 2 TDs per game for 33 FPG on DK. Those are crazy numbers. With Chris Autman-Bell hampered by a leg injury, the path for a competitive outing for Minnesota is through relying on Ibrahim. While this is a tough matchup, Ohio State is ranked 5th versus opposing RBs in FPG, Ibrahim has proven himself to be matchup proof. His two toughest defensive matchups last year were against Wisconsin and Iowa. In those two games, Ibrahim averaged 29.5 attempts and 147.5 yards despite Minnesota losing those games. It will be tough for Ibrahim to hit value at $8.6K. in this contest, but I do see a path for it with the volume he should receive in this game.
#Gophers WR Chris Autman-Bell (right ankle) is still questionable “75%” tonight versus Ohio St. per source.— Matt Kennedy (@matthewhkennedy) September 2, 2021
Going to be a gametime decision by Head Coach PJ Fleck and WR Coach Matt Simon but it is looking like he will suit up.
Charles Williams, UNLV vs. Eastern Washington (DK: $5.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 67.0 | Implied: 34.5)
Charles Williams is a 6th-year RB UNLV heavily relied on these last two years. In 2020, Williams had 19 or more carries in 5 of 6 games including 80-plus yards in four of those games. Eastern Washington gave up 196 YPG on the ground last year while only allowing 187 YPG through the air. Favored by two points, the path to victory, and slowing down the pass-happy Eastern Washington Offense, appears to be a heavy dose of Williams. At $5.9K, Williams has a great opportunity to hit value in this contest.
George Holani, Boise State vs Central Florida (DK: $5.8K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 68.5 | Implied: 31.5)
George Holani is coming off an injury-riddled 2020, but appears to be fully healthy heading into the 2021 season. Holani was the only true freshman RB to rush for 1,000 yards in 2019 despite not getting his first start until week 8. He is a special talent paired with new OC Tim Plough, who loves to feature his RBs. In 2019, Plough’s RB1, Ulonzo Gilliam, had 300 touches for 1603 yards and 12 TDs including 57 receptions. Holani is one of the top two offensive talents for Boise State and should absolutely be featured. In 2020, UCF ranked 102nd versus opposing RBs allowing 31.9 FPG. Holani is a player to heavily consider at $5.8K on DK.
I'm eager to see how the #BoiseState running backs will be used in Tim Plough's offense.
Question: Over/Under 100 total catches for the group?
(I'm going over.)
RB George Holani: "We're going to be out in routes a lot this year."
…𝟯𝟴 𝗛𝗢𝗨𝗥𝗦 𝗨𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗟 𝗞𝗜𝗖𝗞𝗢𝗙𝗙! pic.twitter.com/yJeh3kDOcj
— Jay Tust (@KTVBSportsGuy) September 1, 2021
Rachaad White, Arizona State vs Southern Utah (DK: $7.0K | FD: NA | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 50.5)
I’m going to be honest from the jump. Rachaad White is one of my favorite players in 2021. In 2020, he averaged 26.8 FPG in four games on only 50 touches, averaging 11.42 yards per touch. Clearly, he is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands and is the best player on a talented, albeit young, Arizona State Offense. It must be noted that White did split carries with Deamonte Trayanum in 2020 and he might not play past halftime with the Sun Devils favored by 45 points so there are potential red flags. However, Arizona State blew out Arizona 70-7 last year and White still put up 34.3 FPs in that game. The potential volatility in outcome might be enough to keep us away from White, but he is worth mentioning in this writeup due to his talent.
Camerun Peoples, Appalachian State vs East Carolina (DK: $6.9K | FD: $8.3K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 33.75)
Jabari Small, Tennessee vs Bowling Green (DK: $5.4K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 48.0)
Tiyon Evans, Tennessee vs Bowling Green (DK: $5.6K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 48.0)
Isaiah Bowser, Central Florida vs Boise State (DK: $5.5K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 68.5 | Implied: 37.0)
Zonovan Knight, North Carolina State vs South Florida (DK: $6.1K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 38.75)
Deamonte Trayanum, Arizona State vs Southern Utah (DK: $5.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 50.5)
Miyan Williams, Ohio State vs. Minnesota (DK: $5.1K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 38.75)
Nathaniel Noel, Appalachian State vs East Carolina (DK: $4.1K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 33.75)
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State vs. Minnesota (DK: $3.8K | FD: $5.1K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 38.75)
Khalil Shakir, Boise State vs Central Florida (DK: $6.9K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 68.5 | Implied: 31.5)
In 2020, Khalil Shakir dominated the receiving market share for Boise State with 37% of receptions, 42% of yards, and 50% of TDs. In seven games last year, Shakir averaged 7.5 receptions and 103 YPG. New OC Tim Plough was known to feature his WR1 at UC Davis especially with Keelan Doss. In 2018 & 2019, Doss averaged 116.5 receptions, 1416.5 yards and 9 TDs. Shakir is in line for a huge season starting tonight facing an UCF DEF ranked 114th versus opposing WRs in 2020. At $6.9K on DK, Shakir is a lock in our lineups tonight.
Chris Olave, Ohio State vs Minnesota (DK: $6.7K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 38.75)
Chris Olave led the Ohio State WRs in targets, receptions, yards and TDs despite playing one less game than the other WRs. He is currently priced at $800 below Garrett Wilson on DK. Olave averaged 25.4 FPG last year so he should hit value at $6.7K on DK facing a Minnesota DEF ranked 63rd versus opposing WRs allowing 37.2 FPG. Olave provides us with a nice floor as he hit double-digit FPs in all seven games last year, including 21-plus points in five of those contests.
Garrett Wilson, Ohio State vs Minnesota (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.1K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 38.75)
Garrett Wilson is still supremely talented and worth considering as the potentially lower-owned Buckeye on the slate. Wilson averaged 21.1 FPG on DK last year, scoring 25-plus FPs in half of his games. I expect CJ Stroud to lean on his veteran WRs tonight similarly to Justin Fields last year so we will need to stack one of these WRs with him.
Talolo Limu-Jones, Eastern Washington vs UNLV (DK: $5.0K | FD: NA | O/U: 67.0 | Implied: 32.5)
Talolo Limu-Jones was the dominant WR1 for pass-happy Eastern Washington during their 2021 Spring football season. He averaged 7 receptions and 108 YPG along with 4 TDs. The next closest WR was Freddie Roberson with 67 YPG. Averaging 20.4 FPG and only $5.0K, he is one of the best values on the DK slate tonight.
Kyle Williams, UNLV vs. Eastern Washington (DK: $5.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 67.0 | Implied: 34.5)
Velus Jones, Tennessee vs Bowling Green (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 48.0)
Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee vs Bowling Green (DK: $7.1K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 48.0)
Emeka Emezie, North Carolina State vs South Florida (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 38.75)
Daniel Jackson, Minnesota vs Ohio State (DK: $5.2K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 24.75)
Johnny Wilson, Arizona State vs Southern Utah (DK: $6.6K | FD: NA | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 50.5)
Freddie Roberson, Eastern Washington vs UNLV (DK: $4.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 67.0 | Implied: 32.5)
Andrew Boston, Eastern Washington vs UNLV (DK: $4.3K | FD: NA | O/U: 67.0 | Implied: 32.5)
Xavier Weaver, South Florida vs North Carolina State (DK: $3.0K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 20.25)
LV Bunkley-Shelton, Arizona State vs Southern Utah (DK: $3.9K | FD: NA | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 50.5)