I’m pumped for this Week 6 Saturday Main Slate!
It is filled with some fun matchups, including four matchups featuring totals over 63 points. We have a few big questions to answer on this slate. Do we go all-in on the Virginia-Louisville game by playing both QBs? Do we play TreVeyon Henderson after he left the Rutgers game early last week? Is Rakim Jarrett the best value on the slate at $4.1K? With all the Oklahoma WRs priced at $4.9K-or-less, which one do we put in our lineup?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Mississippi (-5.5) vs Arkansas
Virginia (+2.5) vs Louisville
Texas (+3.5) vs Oklahoma
Virginia vs Louisville (Over 69.5)
Texas vs Oklahoma (Under 63.5)
Michigan State vs Rutgers (Over 51.5)
Malik Cunningham, Louisville vs Virginia (DK: $9.7K | FD: $11.5K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Malik Cunningham has consistently played at a very high level all season, averaging 34.8 FPG and never scoring less than 29.9 FPs in any game this season. Cunningham, a classic Konami Code QB, is averaging 61.2 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game. This Virginia DEF is ranked 108th in QB FPG (27.4). In week 3, Sam Howell rushed for 112 yards on 15 attempts versus Virginia and is the only dual-threat QB they have faced all season. Cunningham is about to have a massive game. He is the one QB lock on this slate in Cash/SE (single-entry) contests even at his price point.
Malik Cunningham has had multiple rushing touchdowns in every single game this season. That’s incredible.— Dalton Pence (@dpence_) October 2, 2021
Brennan Armstrong, Virginia vs Louisville (DK: $9.2K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Brennan Armstrong is playing at an elite level right now, averaging 394.6 PASS YPG and 33.1 FPG. He’s facing a soft Louisville DEF ranked 110th in PASS YPG (261.2) and QB FPG Allowed (26.5). This game has shootout written all over it with a total of 69.5 points with a 2.5-point spread. Armstrong will have no problem hitting value in this game. I’m putting him in my CASH/SE (single-entry) lineups with confidence this weekend.
Garrett Shrader, Syracuse vs Wake Forest (DK: $6.7K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 26.25)
Garrett Shrader was finally given the reins to the Syracuse offense and he did not disappoint in his first start. He only threw for 150 yards versus FSU last week, but he ran for an additional 137 yards and 3 TDs resulting in 43.7 FPs. His rushing ability is what makes him so intriguing at $6.7K. These types of players provide a fantastic floor each week with their rushing ability. Wake Forest is the 5th-worst DEF in QB FPG Allowed (21.4) on the slate and gave up 46 rushing yards along with 2 TDs to Malik Cunningham last week. Shrader is a cheaper option for us at $6.7K if we want to spend up at WR or RB in this slate, but I’m still more confident in both Malik Cunningham and Brennan Armstrong in CASH/SE contests.
Matt Corral, Mississippi vs Arkansas (DK: $10.0K | FD: $11.3K | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest vs Syracuse (DK: $7.7K | FD: $10.7K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 32.25)
Casey Thompson, Texas vs Oklahoma (DK: $7.4K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland vs Ohio State (DK: $6.0K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 71.0 | Implied: 25.0)
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State vs Maryland (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.3K | O/U: 71.0 | Implied: 46.0)
TreVeyon Henderson had another impressive outing with 71 yards and a TD on 8 rushing attempts in one quarter before Ohio State HC Ryan Day shut him down for precautionary reasons in a blowout win versus Rutgers. Ohio State has one of the best offensive lines (OL) in the country, ranking 2nd in Avg. Line Yards (3.33).
Note: Avg. Line Yards is a statistic which attempts to measure how many yards per rush attempt should be attributed to the offensive line. The higher the number of avg. line yards, the better the offensive line.
Henderson is not only an exceptional talent, but he is also benefitting from a phenomenal run-blocking OL. Maryland DEF is ranked 96th in RB FPG Allowed (26.0) so expect another massive game for Henderson. This will be our last opportunity to insert him into our lineups at a reduced salary.
On TreVeyon Henderson:— Jacob Benge (@JacobBenge) October 7, 2021
"He was healthy...but got banged up a little bit."
Day held Henderson out of the second half against Rutgers, but said Tuesday he's "good to go" against Maryland.#Buckeyes
Leddie Brown, West Virginia vs Baylor (DK: $6.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 44.0 | Implied: 28.25)
Leddie Brown is averaging 99.4 yards on 19.6 touches per game along with 7 TDs through five games for 21.7 FPs. In the last two weeks, this Baylor DEF has allowed Breece Hall and Jaylen Warren to gain 241 yards and 130 yards respectively. They are currently ranked 81st in RB FPG Allowed (22.9). This is a great spot for Brown to hit value at only $6.5K.
Jalen Mitchell, Louisville vs Virginia (DK: $4.6K | FD: $7.1K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Jalen Mitchell is a cheaper option to play in your flex if you want a third RB and you believe the Louisville-Virginia game will be a shootout. Mitchell has been quite productive this year averaging 76.2 YPG. However, he only has one TD through five games, largely due to his QB, Malik Cunningham, averaging two rushing TDs per game. I can definitely see Mitchell hitting value considering this Virginia DEF is ranked 114th in RB FPG Allowed (29.8) and 110th in RUSH YPG (194.8). At $4.6K, inserting Mitchell in your FLEX spot allows you to play both Malik Cunningham and Brennan Armstrong.
Bijan Robinson, Texas vs Oklahoma (DK: $9.3K | FD: $11.2K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Tyler Allgeier, BYU vs Boise State (DK: $7.8K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 31.5)
Abram Smith, Baylor vs West Virginia (DK: $6.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 44.0 | Implied: 23.25)
Chez Mellusi, Wisconsin vs Illinois (DK: $5.8K | FD: $8.6K | O/U: 42.0 | Implied: 26.5)
Master Teague, Ohio State vs Maryland (DK: $4.2K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 71.0 | Implied: 46.0)
AJ Green, Arkansas vs Mississippi (DK: $3.8K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 30.5)
Trevion Cooley, Louisville vs Virginia (DK: $3.7K | FD: $5.4K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 36.0)
Khalil Shakir, Boise State vs BYU (DK: $7.1K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 25.5)
Khalil Shakir is the dominant WR1 for Boise State with a 25 percent target share. Octavius Evans is second on the team in target share at 13.8 percent. Shakir is averaging 9 targets, 6.2 receptions and 103 yards per game with 4 TDs for 23.0 FPG. BYU DEF is ranked 98th in PASS YPG (251.4) so there will be plenty of opportunities for Shakir in the game. He is relatively affordable at $7.1K, but you have to play Garrett Shrader, or another cheap QB, in order to fit him into your lineup.
Keytaon Thompson, Virginia vs Louisville (DK: $4.6K | FD: $5.9K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Keytaon Thompson is finally listed at WR instead of QB on DK, making him an attractive option to stack with Brennan Armstrong. Thompson is averaging 13.4 FPG as a utility player, averaging 6.6 targets, 5 receptions, and 3 rushing attempts for 82.4 YPG. Last week, he had a season-high 10 targets for 14.2 FPs, which would have been much more if he didn’t drop an easy TD pass in the end zone. It’s hard not to like his potential facing a Louisville PASS DEF ranked 113th in WR FPG Allowed (28.0) and 110th in PASS YPG (262.0), especially at a modest $4.6K.
Mendenhall on Keytaon Thompson: “He is UVA football. If anyone wants to see what I like or love and what we’re trying to become, it’s him. He just is relentless in his effort and his positivity and his leadership and his execution and his playmaking…— Mike Lewis (@Mikeysurf) October 2, 2021
Rakim Jarrett, Maryland vs Ohio State (DK: $4.1K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 71.0 | Implied: 25.0)
Rakim Jarrett might be the best value on the slate considering his price point and opportunity this week. Fellow Maryland WR Dontay Demus suffered a terrible leg injury last week versus Iowa that has opened up a ton of vacated targets. Demus was the leading WR, averaging 7.2 targets, 5.6 receptions and 101 YPG for 20.9 FPG. Jarrett was already averaging 6.8 targets and 4.2 receptions per game before Demus’ injury and he is about to receive a massive uptick. Ohio State has improved defensively quite a bit, but is still ranked 98th in PASS YPG (251.4) and WR FPG Allowed (26.1). Jarrett is a must in our lineups as I imagine he will have a very high ownership percentage at $4.1K.
Mario Williams, Oklahoma vs Texas (DK: $3.8K | FD: $5.2K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Mario Williams and the Oklahoma WR core are all priced at $4.9K or below on this slate. DK is daring us to take a shot at these WRs facing a Texas DEF ranked 82nd in WR FPG Allowed (24.1). My personal preference is to take a shot on Williams for simple reasons, he is the cheapest of the WRs at $3.8K and currently leads the team in targets, receptions and touchdowns. He only needs 11.8 FPs to hit value, which is totally possible in this potential shootout versus Texas. His cheap price allows us to pay up for our QBs and RBs, unlike the other Oklahoma WR options.
Garrett Wilson, Ohio State vs Maryland (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 71.0 | Implied: 46.0)
Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia vs Louisville (DK: $7.0K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Billy Kemp, Virginia vs Louisville (DK: $6.5K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Xavier Worthy, Texas vs Oklahoma (DK: $5.0K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 30.0)
Bo Melton, Rutgers vs Michigan State (DK: $4.6K | FD: NA | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 23.25)
Marvin Mims, Oklahoma vs Texas (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Courtney Jackson, Syracuse vs Wake Forest (DK: $3.8K | FD: $5.9K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 26.25)