I’m excited to kick off another big CFB DFS weekend!
This Friday night slate provides some exciting options for a two-game slate. Carson Strong is a lock, but is there a second viable QB option on this slate? Outside of Charles Williams, which RBs are worth considering? Is it possible to have too many Nevada pass catchers in our lineup?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Navy (-11) vs Tulsa
Nevada (+20.5) vs UNLV
Tulsa vs Navy (Under 47.0)
Nevada vs UNLV (Under 58.0)
Carson Strong, Nevada vs UNLV (DK: $9.2K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 39.25)
Carson Strong is the clear QB1 on this slate. Over his last three games, he is averaging 416 passing yards and 4 TDs per game for 32.51 FPG. He is facing a soft UNLV DEF that is ranked 124th in PASS YPG (289.3), 120th in YPA (8.8), and 126th in QB FPG (30.3). He is a lock in our lineups on Friday night.
Nevada QB Carson Strong (top 50 2022 prospect on @PFF’s big board) when kept clean in W8— Anthony Treash (@PFF_Anthony) October 24, 2021
▫️ 95.0 passing grade
▫️ 42/49, 446 yds, 4 TD
▫️ 6 big-time throws
rips lazers with little effort. such a strong arm paired with a quick release.pic.twitter.com/4IcfG7qoRv
Davis Brin, Tulsa vs Navy (DK: $7.0K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 29.0)
Davis Brin is the only other QB option I would consider on this slate as the Navy QB Tai Lavatai is only averaging 11.5 FPG and UNLV QB Devin Brumfield is questionable. Over his last three games, Brin is averaging 235.3 passing yards and 1.67 TDs per game for 14.6 FPG. These numbers are pretty concerning considering he faced two bottom-30 pass defenses over that three-game span. Navy is ranked 49th versus opposing QBs in FPG (20.1) and always limits the possessions of opposing offenses, because of their triple-option offense. If you want two QBs, I think you have to go with Brin, but I’d rather have Nevada TE Cole Turner in my lineup, personally.
Charles Williams, UNLV vs Nevada (DK: $6.2K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 18.75)
Charles Williams is the focal point of the UNLV offense averaging 20.6 carries, 102 rushing yards and a TD per game for 20.0 FPG this season. The Nevada DEF is ranked 110th in RB FPG (28.5). They have been particularly suspect over the last two games, giving up an average of 221.5 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game for 43.9 FPG versus Fresno State and Hawaii. It’s reasonable to expect Williams to hit 20.0 FPs this week and to exceed value at $6.2K.
Week 7 Performance— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) October 19, 2021
RB Charles Williams - UNLV
• 221 rushing yards 3 TDs pic.twitter.com/s9NMkA2InC
Toa Taua, Nevada vs UNLV (DK: $5.6K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 39.25)
Toa Taua has taken off since entering Mountain West Conference play, averaging 21.65 FPG on 16.5 touches through four games. UNLV is ranked 82nd in RUSH YPG (159.43) and 64tth in RB FPG (21.1). The implied total for Nevada in this contest is 39.25 points so Taua will have ample opportunity to score a TD or two. The only concern with Taua is whether you want to stack a QB, RB, and multiple WRs from one team. He is certainly worthy of consideration at $5.6K.
Deneric Prince, Tulsa vs Navy (DK: $4.8K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 29.0)
Deneric Prince returned from injury versus USF two weeks ago and rushed for 110 yards and a TD on 19 carries for 20 FPs. In fact, in four healthy games this season, Prince has produced 18-plus FPs in three of them. Navy is ranked 79th in RB FPG (23.4), but has not allowed a 100-yard runner all season so this will be a tough matchup. Prince splits snaps and carries with Shamari Brooks evenly, but is roughly $2K cheaper on DK.
Isaac Ruoss, Navy vs Tulsa (DK: $3.9K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 18.0)
Isaac Ruoss is a sneaky good sub-$4.0K play on DK this week. Minus the Air Force game, Ruoss is averaging 16 carries per game which is great for a $3.9K RB on a two-game slate. Tulsa is ranked 93rd in RB FPG (25.6) so it’s a decent matchup for Ruoss. However, the main reason he is in our lineup is to allow us to spend up on WRs on this slate.
Shamari Brooks, Tulsa vs Navy (DK: $6.7K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 29.0)
Devonte Lee, Nevada vs UNLV (DK: $3.8K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 39.25)
Romeo Doubs, Nevada vs UNLV (DK: $5.6K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 39.25)
Cole Turner, Nevada vs UNLV (DK: $5.6K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 39.25)
Tory Horton, Nevada vs UNLV (DK: $5.6K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 39.25)
The Nevada passing game is the winning ticket on this slate so we are going to fit as many Nevada pass catchers as possible in our lineups. They are a pass happy offense ranked top 5 in PASS YPG (379.4) and PASS ATT/G (46.6). The UNLV DEF is an ideal matchup for this passing attack as they are ranked 124th in PASS YPG (289.3) and 129th in WR FPG (33.8).
If possible, Romeo Doubs and Cole Turner would be ideal to put in our lineups. Romeo Doubs is averaging 10.2 targets, 7.5 receptions and 98 yards per game for 21.7 FPG on the season. Cole Turner is averaging 9.6 targets, 6 receptions and 72.6 yards per game for 19.3 FPG on the season. However, the last two games both have seen a major uptick in production with Doubs averaging 33.3 FPG and Turner averaging 33.0 FPG. They are THE focal point of the Nevada passing offense. In order to fit both in your lineup, you will probably have to put one of them at S-FLEX in place of Davis Brin. This is completely reasonable to do in a two-game slate with a weak second option at QB.
Tory Horton is the 3rd option of the Nevada passing attack to consider. Horton was the starting WR opposite Romeo Doubs last week versus Fresno State and played the 2nd most snaps of any WR. Consequently, he had eight targets which is the most he has had in any game this season. Horton is plenty talented and should produce with the increased opportunities. He is the cheapest of all the viable Nevada receiving options on this slate at $4.1K.
Carson Strong throws for 476 yards and four touchdowns. Romeo Doubs tied a school record with 19 catches for 203 yards. Those are the most catches in an FBS game this season. Nevada on the short end of an instant classic. Fresno State simply had more offensive balance.— Chris Murray (@ByChrisMurray) October 24, 2021
Josh Johnson, Tulsa vs Navy (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.3K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 29.0)
Josh Johnson has emerged as the clear WR1 for Tulsa this year with a 30 percent target share. Over the last five games, he is averaging 11.4 targets, 7.2 receptions and 102.8 yards per game for 22.9 FPG. He is facing an average Navy DEF ranked 81st in WR FPG (24.0) and 62nd in PASS YPG (223.1). At $6.5K, he should hit value on this slate.
Kyle Williams, UNLV vs Nevada (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 18.75)
Justin Lockhart, Nevada vs UNLV (DK: $6.0K | FD: $7.4K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 39.25)
Sam Crawford, Tulsa vs Navy (DK: $5.4K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 29.0)
JuanCarlos Santana, Tulsa vs Navy (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 29.0)