I’m excited to kick off another big CFB DFS weekend!
This Friday night slate provides some exciting RB options for a two-game slate. Cameron RIsing is a lock, but is there a second viable QB option on this slate? Can Tavion Thomas provide an encore after his massive performance versus UCLA? Is true freshman RB Malachi Thomas the real deal? Can we trust Austin Jones' uptick in volume over the last two weeks? Who can we trust at WR on this slate with so many volatile options?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Virginia Tech (-3) vs Boston College
Utah (-9) vs Stanford
Virginia Tech vs Boston College (Over 47.5)
Utah vs Stanford (Under 54)
Cameron Rising, Utah vs Stanford (DK: $8.0K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 31.5)
Cameron Rising has improved dramatically this year. Over his last four games, Rising is averaging 28.29 FPG. His lowest output during that stretch is 23.46 FPs. He is a Konami Code QB averaging 50 YPG on the ground. The Stanford DEF is ranked 72nd in QB FPG (22.6) so this is a great matchup for Rising to hit value. There is no question that Rising is the best QB play on this slate.
Braxton Burmeister, Virginia Tech vs Boston College (DK: $6.4K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 25.25)
Braxton Burmeister is the only other QB option that I would consider on this slate with question marks at QB for both Boston College and Stanford. Burmeister is averaging 16.5 FPG hitting double-digit FPs in every game this season. He is an inconsistent passer with a completion percentage of 54 percent, but does provide some value with legs rushing for 33.5 YPG. This Boston College DEF is pretty average, ranking 58th in QB FPG (21.5). Burmeister is not an exciting option, but is the only other QB under consideration if you’re adamant about starting two QBs.
Tavion Thomas, Utah vs Stanford (DK: $8.2K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 31.5)
The Utah coaching staff has finally put their full trust in Tavion Thomas and he has not disappointed. Over the last four games, he is averaging 20.25 carries, 107.8 yards and 2 TDs per game for 24.3 FPG. He is the new Utah workhorse RB. The Stanford DEF is ranked 95th in RB FPG (25.5) and 119th in RUSH YPG (206.0). Thomas is the RB lock of this slate.
Malachi Thomas, Virginia Tech vs Boston College (DK: $6.6K | FD: $8.3K | O/U:47.5 | Implied: 25.25)
Malachi Thomas has been incredible since taking over as the workhorse RB for Virginia Tech. Over the last two games, he is averaging 23 carries, 127 yards and 1.5 TDs per game for 24.7 FPG. He is facing a Boston College DEF ranked 96th in RB FPG (25.7), 90th in RUSH YPG (172.13) and 103rd in YPC (4.72). Look for Thomas to have another big game this week and hit value at $6.6K.
Austin Jones, Stanford vs Utah ((DK: $6.1K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 22.5)
Austin Jones’ workload has increased significantly over the last two weeks as he is averaging 19.5 touches and 18.4 FPG. Jones also provides great PPR value as he averages four catches per game. This Utah DEF is ranked 67th in RUSH YPG (151.0) and 75th in YPC (4.11). It appears that Tanner McKee is unlikely to play versus Utah so I expect Stanford to heavily rely on Jones as the focal point of the offense.
Raheem Blackshear, Virginia Tech vs Boston College (DK: $4.9K | FD: $7.1K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 25.25)
Zay Flowers, Boston College vs Virginia Tech (DK: $5.9K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 22.25)
Zay Flowers had his second 100-yard receiving game last week versus Syracuse as this season has largely been a disappointment for him after losing QB Phil Jurkovec for the year in week 2. However, he has the 2nd most targets per game (7.9) of any WR on this slate and has a team target share of 27.5 percent. Over the last five games, he is averaging 9.9 targets per game. He is facing a Virginia Tech DEF ranked 85th in WR FPG (25.3). Putting Flowers in our lineup allows us to spend up on RBs on this slate.
Tayvion Robinson, Virginia Tech vs Boston College (DK: $4.8K | FD: $7.1K | O/U:47.5 | Implied: 25.25)
Tayvion Robinson is more of the possession WR for Virginia Tech as he is second on the team in targets, receptions and yards while leading the team in TDs. Over the last five games, he is averaging 7.0 targets and 5.6 catches per game. He has hit double-digit FPs in four of five of those games. Robinson provides us consistency and a nice floor in CASH/SE (single-entry) contests on a slate filled with volatile receiving options.
Michael Wilson, Stanford vs Utah ((DK: $3.7K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 22.5)
Michael Wilson is healthy at the perfect time for this Stanford offense that has been ravaged by injuries to their WRs. In fact, it looks like Utah will be without it’s top three WRs versus Stanford. Wilson was the leading WR for Stanford in 2019 and the second leading WR in 2020 so he is welcomed addition after not playing at all this year. At $3.7K, Wilson is the best value of any player on this slate if he is full-go versus Utah.
Other Stanford personnel updates vs. Utah— Troy Clardy (@TroyClardy) November 2, 2021
- WR Michael Wilson is a full go, TE Bradley Archer will also return
- DBs Salim Turner-Muhammad & Ethan Bonner are probable
- WRs John Humphreys & Elijah Higgins are questionable
- RB/PR Casey Filkins & TE Lukas Ungar are out https://t.co/umkzxeywCc
Benjamin Yurosek, Stanford vs Utah ((DK: $6.8K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 22.5)
Dalton Kincaid, Utah vs Stanford (DK: $4.6K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 31.5)
Britain Covey, Utah vs Stanford (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 31.5)