I’m excited to kick off another big CFB DFS weekend!
This Friday night slate provides some exciting RB options for a two-game slate with limited options at QB and WR. Is Jerome Ford going to play? If not, who do we insert into our lineup: Ryan Montgomery or Charles McClelland? Is George Holani finally healthy? Desmond RIdder is a lock at QB, but which other QB do we insert into our lineup? Is Alec Pierce a lock at WR on this slate?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
South Florida (+23) vs Cincinnati
Wyoming (+13.5) vs Boise State
South Florida vs Cincinnati (Under 57)
Wyoming vs Boise State (Over 48.5)
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs South Florida (DK: $8.5K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 40.0)
Desmond Ridder is not only the best QB on the slate, but he also has the easiest matchup by far. Ridder is having a down year by his standards, averaging 22.8 FPG. However, in the last two games he is averaging 26.02 FPG, rushing for 45 YPG. The South Florida DEF is terrible versus opposing QBs, ranking 123rd in QB FPG (29.3), 113th in PASS YPG (271.4) and 113th in PASS YPA (8.5). Ridder is the QB lock of the slate.
Desmond Ridder lofted a rainbow pass down the sideline for a falling Michael Young Jr., who hauled it in for a 31-yard touchdown on the second drive of the half. 🎯— Cincinnati Bearcats (@GoBEARCATS) November 7, 2021
It's today's Fujitec Skilled Play of the Game! pic.twitter.com/eTDCTbOExB
Levi Williams, Wyoming vs Boise State (DK: $6.2K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 17.5)
Levi Williams was given the reins to the Wyoming offense two weeks ago and has done well, averaging 23.47 FPG over that span. Williams is a dual-threat QB who does more damage with his legs than his arm. In fact, last week versus a tough Colorado State DEF, Williams rushed for 116 yards on 12 carries. Williams has the best opportunity of the remaining three QBs on the slate to hit value due to their tough matchups.
Timmy McClain, South Florida vs Cincinnati (DK: $5.7K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 17.0)
Jerome Ford, Cincinnati vs South Florida (DK: $8.3K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 40.0)
Ryan Montgomery, Cincinnati vs South Florida (DK: $3.0K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 40.0)
Jerome Ford is having quite the breakout season, averaging 25.3 FPG. However, he hurt his ankle early in the game versus Tulsa last week and did not return to the game. It appears that he avoided a long-term injury, but he is officially questionable versus South Florida this week. If he is healthy and plays, he is a lock in our lineup facing a weak South Florida DEF ranked 126th in RB FPG (33.9), 120th in RUSH YPG (213.56), and 124th in RUSH YPC (5.81).
If Jerome Ford is out, Ryan Montgomery appears to be the RB most likely to take over the workload. He filled in for an injured Ford and had the most snaps and carries of any Cincinnati RB versus Tulsa. For the season, he has been productive with 28 carries and 174 yards for 6.2 YPC. He is only $3.0K on DK so he holds massive value if Ford is out.
Cincinnati Bearcats coach Luke Fickell said he doesn't know yet if RB Jerome Ford will be available Friday at South Florida (6 p.m. on ESPN2).— Keith Jenkins (@MrKeithJenkins) November 9, 2021
Fickell also said he's "not overly concerned" about Ford's injury.
Xazavian Valladay, Wyoming vs Boise State (DK: $7.0K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 17.5)
Xazavian Valladay is the workhorse RB for Wyoming, averaging 18.4 touches and 108.1 yards per game for 17.1 FPG. After hitting a lull in the middle of the season, Valladay is averaging 21.4 FPG over the last two games. The Boise State DEF is ranked 96th in RUSH YPG (174.44) and 83rd in RUSH YPC (4.25) so there will be plenty of opportunities for Valladay to hit value at $7.0K.
George Holani, Boise State vs Wyoming (DK: $4.5K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 31.0)
George Holani was projected to be one of the top RBs in college football by many, including myself, coming into the year, but injuries have completely derailed his season. Boise State has been limiting his snaps all year due to the injuries until this last week versus Fresno State. He took full advantage of his opportunity versus Fresno State, accumulating 186 yards on 23 touches en route to 23.6 FPs. Holani has a great opportunity versus a Wyoming DEF ranked 64th in RB FPG (22.0), 81st in RUSH YPC (4.24), and 90th in RUSH YPG (169.11). At $4.5K, Holani is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Titus Swen, Wyoming vs Boise State (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 17.5)
Charles McClelland, Cincinnati vs South Florida (DK: $3.0K | FD: $7.2K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 40.0)
Khalil Shakir, Boise State vs Wyoming (DK: $7.4K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 31.0)
Khalil Shakir is by far the best WR on the slate averaging 8 touches and 103 yards per game for 20.8 FPG. He has hit double-digit FPs in each game this season, scoring 20-plus FPs in five of those games. Reasonably priced at $7.4K, Shakir will be the highest-owned WR on the slate and is a lock in our lineups.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME KHALIL SHAKIR?! pic.twitter.com/av8vPwJHNP— PFN Draft (@PFNDraft) November 7, 2021
Alec Pierce, Cincinnati vs South Florida (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 40.0)
Alec Pierce finally got back on track last week, after three subpar performances, with 5 receptions, 113 yards and a TD for 25.3 FPs. He is facing a weak South Florida DEF ranked 125th in WR FPG (32.8), 113th in PASS YPG (271.4) and 113th in PASS YPA (8.5). If Jerome Ford is out, Cincinnati may choose to lean on Pierce and the receiving core to move the ball. I really like Pierce’s potential in this contest.
Xavier Weaver, South Florida vs Cincinnati (DK: $5.4K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 17.0)
Xavier Weaver is the dominant WR1 for South Florida with twice as many targets, yards and touchdowns as any other WR on the roster. In fact, he is averaging the 2nd most targets of any WR on this slate behind Khalil Shakir at 8.1 targets per game. As 23-point underdogs, South Florida will be playing from behind, allowing plenty of opportunities for Weaver in this contest. Behind Khalil Shakir and Alec Pierce, Weaver is the third best WR option on this slate.
Josh Whyle, Cincinnati vs South Florida (DK: $5.0K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 40.0)
Michael Young Jr., Cincinnati vs South Florida (DK: $3.9K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 57.0 | Implied: 40.0)