Week 13 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

There are two ways you can attack the Chiefs on this slate and it starts and ends with Tyreek Hill. The first line of thinking is that Hill is unstoppable and seeing a massive 47% air yard share and 35% target share over the last month. In this case, you can potentially lock Hill in or at least make him your highest owned captain. The other line of thinking is just a play on the amount of ownership that Hill is going to catch. Hill will be massively owned in the captain slot, so taking a stand and having a bit more Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce at the captain spot makes sense from a game theory perspective. Mahomes at the captain would require a few pass-catchers in the flex spots assuming he spreads the ball around and doesn’t feed just Hill or Kelce. Travis Kelce had a few catches called back that prevented a solid game from being a smash game last week, but we’ve seen Kelce have some blowup games. Kelce’s price is a bit prohibitive for a tight end, though 100 yards and two touchdowns isn’t out of the question, so I think it’s okay to have a little bit of Kelce at captain. The ultimate leverage play would be to put Clyde Edwards-Helaire at the 1.5x spot. If there was ever a week to take a stab at it, it’s against the Broncos who are a run-funnel team. The rank 27th in rushing yards allowed, but 8th in passing yards allowed. I wouldn’t go crazy here, because the Chiefs’ identity is slinging the ball, but making a handful of CEH captain lineups if you are mass multi-entering has some merit. Make sure you correlate those lineups correctly. CEH success usually detracts from the success of Tyreek Hill the most, because if the Chiefs are putting together long drives resulting in CEH touchdowns, Hill probably isn’t hitting his chunk play TDs.

I honestly don’t think a Broncos’ player deserves much consideration as a captain. Jerry Jeudy has been the best Broncos receiver, commanding 40% of the air yards and 25% of the targets, so he’s viable but the Chiefs options have a much better chance at a ceiling game. KJ Hamler may not seem like a captain option, but he’s been involved enough in the offense that if he breaks one at his price he could land as the optimal captain because of the lineup he allows you to build. With Hamler at captain, you don’t really have to dip into the true punt options. There have been weeks where having the $2,000 that has a ceiling game ends up being the optimal captain because no other pay down option hits value, so you need a stud heavy lineup in the flex spots.

Flex

LeVeon Bell has been playing around 30% of the Chiefs snaps and is worth a flier at his price. Additionally, I would keep an eye on Edwards-Helaire reports because he has a stomach virus. Obviously, if he is inactive, Bell and Darrell Williams become excellent plays. However, if CEH is active but we get reports that he’s still not 100% is where we could get some leverage with Bell. That’s probably a long shot, but worth monitoring. Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay seem like longshots to have big games unless it’s in the passing game. Because of that I would lean to Gordon in lineups as he has more of a passing game role. Overall, the game script in this game lends itself to slotting in Broncos receivers who are racking up receptions in catch up mode.

The Broncos passing attack behind Drew Lock doesn’t inspire much confidence outside of a single pass-catcher or maybe two getting into a Chiefs onslaught. In addition to Jeudy and Hamler mentioned above, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant should be rostered as well. They both have a 17% target share this season, but come in just a bit to pricey to be considered as punt captains. I can see any of the four pass-catchers for Lock (Jeudy, Fant, Patrick, Hamler) having a solid fantasy day that puts them in the optimal lineup, but I like them in that order.

The Chiefs’ pass-catchers are all healthy so we’ll have to parse through Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman. If we think about the way these players can hit their value, Sammy Watkins is a bit more of a possession receiver that works the intermediate part of the area, he would probably be fine if paired with Tyreek and Mecole, whose routes take them a bit more downfield or behind the line of scrimmage. Robinson will get there if he scores a red zone touchdown, so I think we can’t pair him in the same lineup as Kelce, who will be getting his value from the same type of play. Mecole notably has a negative correlation with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, probably because of the jet sweep type plays around the goal line that directly takes away from CEH’s goal-line chances.

Often times we’ll need an absolute dart as the last man in for lineups that we spend up at the other five positions. With Hamler in lineups, I don’t think you’ll need these but Nick Vannett has been involved in the offense a bit recently and could steal a touchdown. The same goes for Royce Freeman. He hasn’t been involved a ton, but could always get a goal-line carry, that’s not something I’d count on.

As always, the DSTs and kickers are in play, but the Chiefs DST specifically interests me with the way Drew Lock has played over the last six games, throwing 10 interceptions and being sacked 10 times. In their last matchup, Lock was sacked three times and threw two picks.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Flex: Travis Kelce, Demarcus Robinson, Jerry Jeudy

Captain/MVP: Tyreek Hill

Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs DST, KJ Hamler

Captain/MVP: Travis Kelce

Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins, Tim Patrick

Captain/MVP: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Flex: Chiefs DST, Patrick Mahomes, Noah Fant