General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
- Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
- On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
- On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
- Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
- Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
- DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
- When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain/MVP
On the Packers’ side of the ball, I think the captain spot is simple. Davante Adams is far and away the best play. The concentration of targets makes him a ceiling play every time he steps on the field. Not only is the usage insane with a 36% target share and a 46% air yards share, he has converted on all those targets in the last five games with 45 receptions, 586 yards, and 8 touchdowns. There isn’t another skill player that I feel confident in on the Packers due to the amount of targets that are fed Adams’ way. It’s a slate that it’s possible to hit the lock button on one player. Aaron Rodgers obviously deserves consideration as the quarterback position, but we know that for him to come through, he’ll need to spread the ball around. If he feeds Adams like he usually does, Adams will most likely end up as the optimal captain. There is definitely a chance for Rodgers to hit different pass-catchers like Tonyan, Lazard, and Jones out of the backfield to get there. Adams is the likelier captain based on the projected usage.
If you’re trying to get balanced, we could potentially slot in some Bears players at captain. Mitch Trubisky will get the start over Foles and normally I wouldn’t be interested in a backup quarterback, however Trubisky has had meaningful starter experience and also likes to run the football. If we roster Mitch at captain, we’re counting on running production which probably negates David Montgomery’s value. Montgomery makes sense as a captain as well. The Packers allow the 4th most fantasy points to running backs. Since Tarik Cohen’s injury, Montgomery has averaged five targets since Week 4. Allen Robinson’s most productive game of the season came when Trubisky was under center in Week 3 going 10/123/1. Robinson is priced up a bit on DraftKings, but if this is a game in which the Bears get down early, Robinson could be peppered with targets. I like building around Robinson at captain in Packers’ lopsided win scenarios. It makes for a unique lineup but makes sense if the Packers share the wealth on offense, but Robinson is the lone wolf accruing fantasy points for the Bears.
Flex
The Packers running back situation has been a much more even split than one would have imagined to start the year; in fact, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams split snaps exactly 50/50 last week. For that reason, I like loading up on Jamaal Williams at his super cheap price. He isn’t getting as much usage as Jones, but if he is going to be on the field near the same amount of time and at a quarter of the price, I like trying to get leverage on Aaron Jones lineups. I can’t put Jones in the captain spot at his price and usage. He hasn’t gotten the touches this season to warrant his price and I think he’ll be overowned at captain. You can slot him in at flex, but I think he’ll be overowned in that spot as well relative to his chances of landing in the optimal lineup.
The Packers ancillary pass-catcher options don’t get involved as much as we see on some other teams. The passing game is concentrated to just a few targets, which makes it a bit easier on us from a lineup construction standpoint. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling can’t go, it makes Allen Lazard a priority in Packers heavy lineups as Rodgers will need a secondary target. Robert Tonyan and Jace Sternberger can be added to Rodgers captain lineups projecting the event of Rodgers spreading the ball around to different receivers for touchdowns. Outside of the players previously listed, no one has seen more than a meaningless random target in a game over the last five weeks. If you are mass-multi-entering, you can set it to include a very small percentage of Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Talyor, or Darius Shepard, but the likelihood they land in an optimal is very slim.
On the Bears’ side of the ball, it’s a bit of a different story, there are multiple skill players that can get involved equally. I think it’s smart to concentrate your Packers exposures to the few players that receive the bulk of the touches and targets, while rotating Bears players a bit more evenly due to the nature of their spread-it-around offense. Obviously, Allen Robinson and David Montgomery will be the main pieces, but Anthony Miller and Darnell Mooney could easily wind up as the top Bears pass-catcher on the slate. Mooney is one game removed from an 11 target dude. He is definitely a buy-low candidate. Last week, the Vikings’ pressure on Foles limited his time in the pocket which resulted in just two targets for the deep threat. Miller is also incredibly cheap on DraftKings for someone who has been targeted 26 times in the last three games. I don’t think it’s crazy to make a rule to have at least one of Miller or Mooney in your lineup for this game given their usage and price. Cordarelle Patterson will return to being a gadget player with David Montgomery assuming the lead back role, but is cheap enough to be slotted in as a flier in the event the Bears dial up a red zone reverse or screen for him. Jimmy Graham and Cole Kmet make sense in lineups with Mitch Trubisky as both will need touchdowns to land in the optimal lineup so there is solid correlation there. Though there are more secondary options on the Bears, Robinson, Miller, and Mooney account for 80% of the air yards and 60% of the target market share of the last month, so my focus would be there as well.
As always both DSTs and Kickers are in play especially because I can see each offense stalling in the red zone. While Aaron Rodgers isn’t likely to make any costly mistakes, the Bears’ defense has been solid this season and could limit a high-scoring game. The Packers defense makes a bit more sense as they’ll get to face Mitch Trubisky coming off the bench.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Flex: Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Anthony Miller
Captain/MVP: Davante Adams
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Williams, Anthony Miller
Captain/MVP: Allen Robinson
Flex: Mitch Trubisky, Davante Adams, Darnell Mooney
Captain/MVP: David Montgomery
Flex: Davante Adams, Mitch Trubisky, Bears DST
Captain/MVP: Mitch Trubisky
Flex: Allen Robinson, Jimmy Graham, Allen Lazard
